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Steelers Playoff Scenario: Playoff Chances Still Alive... Barely

I'll recap today's impressive victory over the Carolina Panthers tomorrow morning. Needless to say, we turned in one of our more complete games of the season: we got major contributions from the offense, the defense, and from the special teams.

Here's where we stand after today's action:

* The day got off to a promising start with the Steelers victory and the Titans improbable 24-17 triumph over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags controlled this game, but 4 David Garrard turnovers led to 21 Titan points. Incredible stuff from a Tennessee team who also is hanging on to slim playoff hopes.

In other good news...New England thumped the hapless Texans. Why does this matter? Well, New England travles to Altell Stadium to take on Jacksonville next week in a game the Jags desperately need.

What do we need? Jacksonville to lose to New England at home, and to Kansas City at Arrowhead in Week 17.

* Damn Cardinals. Arizona played a pathetic game on the defensive end, allowing Jay Cutler to be comfortable in the pocket all afternoon. I'm not high on Cutler, but he did have a nice day today, taking what the lame-ass Cardinals defense gave him all day.

What do we need from the Broncos? Well, we really needed them to lose today. Since they won, we still have to have them beat Cinicinnati next weekend. In other words, Denver must be in the playoffs, if the Steelers are to sneak in as the 2nd Wild Card.

* Minnesota is a close runner-up for biggest disappointment on the day. The Vikings themselves had something to play for today, but laid a big fat egg on the defensive end against Chad Pennington & Co. The Vikings couldn't stop the Jets on 3rd down, and the Jets left the Metrodome with a resounding 26-13 victory.

What do we need from the Jets? We need New York to lose one of their final two games, preferrably both obviously . We would have identical conference records if they split their final two games, so it would come down to strength of victory to determine the tiebreaker (the Jets and Steelers don't have enough 'common games' to determine the tie-breaker that way). Obviously it would be ideal if they were to beat Miami and lose to Oakland, but let's not get greedy. Let's hope they lose this weekend. The Steelers would add two more impressive victories to their resume if they were to win out (Baltimore and Cincinnati), so maybe we would squeak by them...I'm just not sure yet.

*Cincinnati must lose tomorrow night...plain and simple. If they win, we're done. Find it in you to cheer as hard as you can for the Colts tomorrow night. If the Bengals did in fact lose tomorrow night, we would need them to lose at Denver next week, and then lose to the Steelers in Week 17. Not out of the realm of possibilit, but first thing's first. Go Indy.

* Kansas City is really not a factor for us except for the fact that we need them to beat Jacksonville in Week 17. So, we need them to rebound from tonight's tough loss and take down the Raiders on the road next week. That would give them somthing to play for hypothetically in Week 17 against the Jags. Hey, it's the NFL. They might show up and play their best game of the season in Week 17 even if they were eliminated, but it might help if there was something added on the line for a Chiefs team that has been up and down all year.

Summary

1) Denver has to make the playoffs if we are to make it as well.

2) Jacksonville must lose their final two games to NE and KC.

3) Cincinnati must lose their final 3 games to Indy, Denver, and Pittsburgh.

4) New York Jets must lose one of their final two games...that would leave us and them with idential overall and conference records. It would come down to strength of victory. I think Pittsburgh would edge the Jets if they beat Baltimore and Cincinnat, but I'm not positive.

Stay tuned, we're still alive and kicking.

Go Colts! (for a week at least)

Go Steelers!

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another scenario
good work breaking it all down. I see best (and most realistic) case for us is to tie with NYJ and KC @ 9-7.  

But the Cincy/Denver scenario can go two ways. Either the way you laid out, or...

  1. Cincy beats INDY and DENVER, loses to PITT - finish 10-6 and #5 seed.
  2. Denver loses to CIN and SF (who is still in NFC hunt and hungry). Denver finishes 8-8.
If NYJ win out, we're done. If they split final 2, with loss at Miami, the tiebreaker should go to us, especially if NFL counts their loss to Miami in the common games tiebreaker.  

also, JAX must drop final 2.

Don't give up hope, this is the NFL.

by steel19 on Dec 18, 2006 2:47 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Scenario 2
The two wild-card teams could be PITT and CINC also.

Either scenario requires PITT to win two, JAGS to lose two, JETS lose 1, BUF to lose 1 and probably TENN to lose 1 (otherwise strength of victories comes into play).

Then, if CINC wins tonight we need DEN to lose 2.

If CINC loses tonight and at DEN we're in with DEN.

If CIN loses tonight, but beats DEN we're still in if DEN loses to SF in the final week.

by steelerbob on Dec 18, 2006 5:42 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

test
ok  didnt work a minute ago  lost lots of material

by pahsad65 on Dec 18, 2006 8:00 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

another tiebreaker situation
first, i agree that cincy can win tonight, nut a loss would be huge.  then we can root for denv/cincy tie...lol   and have them both go 8-7-1 behind us.  OR if a team does win, we are not dead.  Second, despite it being better to have as many teams 8-8 possible.  Out of Buff  Tenn  Jets  Jax  Pitt  KC, only Buff would have 7-5 conference record, so we do need them 8-8.  Previously, we thought Jax win would kill us, but check this....   Jax   Tenn  Pitt   Jets   KC  at 9-7  goes this way   First step  Jax Tenn tie, cuz division must be broken first.  Tenn BEATS Jax and eliminates Jax from next scenario.   2nd   conf record    KC out at 5-7(thanx to SD)
3rd  common games(not enough)  then strength of schedule between  Tenn   Pitt   Jets   as of now Tenn and it could stay them, but who know.  Imagine an 0-5  2-7  Tenn team making playoffs??
But my point is, maybe a Jax win doesnt kill us and maybe Jets 1-1  doesnt kills us.  Can anyone proove this wrong??

by pahsad65 on Dec 18, 2006 8:05 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Denver wouldn't have the tiebreaker over us if....
KC also ends at 9-7.  If KC wins last two and Denver splits, KC would knock Denver out, they split head to head, but KC divisional would be 4-2 to Denver's 3 and 3.  In this scenario, we would need to Cinnci to end 10-5 so we're not in a tiebreaker with them.  So IF Cinnci wins tonight, I think we actually need to root for them next week.  My take what give us the best chance after next weeks game....

We win
Cinncinnati either wins both or loses both
NE has to beat the Jags
Jets have to lose at MIA

If these things happen, what is likely left???

Buffalo has to lose to either Tennessee or at Baltimore

we have to win strength of schedule over Jets and maybe Tennessee (our strength of schedule will get better over the last two weeks, so I think we'll be ahead of the Jets)  Not sure how the strength of schedule works out with Tennessee, the hope is that they lose last week against Pats...anyone have any info on our strength of schedule compared to theirs???

by Goldstar on Dec 18, 2006 9:55 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I'm hoping
McNair is out next week (but I doubt it).  Baltimore spanked us hard last time so I just hope we can beat them!  But it is fun playing out scenarios.  I'm rooting for Manning tonight because he's on my fantasy team!  And thankfully an Indy win doesn't hurt the Steelers!  Go Indy!  It should be a fun game tonight.  
"It's time to plant some seeds. What that means is, hit them in the mouth. Ya know, plant some seeds. Show 'em what time it is." --Levon Kirkland

by steelerinchicago on Dec 18, 2006 10:12 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Tennessee..
We would beat them in 'common games' if it were between the two of us.

by Michael Bean (Blitz) on Dec 18, 2006 12:29 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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