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Are the Steelers equipped to run the ball down people's throats?

Bumped from the diaries. Great research and interesting thoughts from santhome. -Blitz-

With the loss to the Broncos, a lot of ire has been directed towards Tomlin and Arians for implementing a pass wacky game plan. The basic argument was that we, the 2nd ranked rushing offense in the NFL, could simply line-up and run the ball down Denver's throat given that the Broncos have the worst run defense in the NFL.

A run-heavy gameplan is a good plan but only if you can really do it in a sustainable manner. A few of us on BTSC have argued that the O-line isn't up to snuff. I will suggest that when you add in the running style of FWP, it is much harder than in years past to run the ball down other teams throats even though our rushing totals are similar to those years.

To back this hypothesis up, I did a little study of the raw data behind the numbers. In 2004, we were ranked 2nd in rushing offense at 154 YPG. This year we are ranked 2nd at 159 YPG. Pretty similar, right? Now let's look at FWP's individual rushing attempts from the Denver game and compare it to Duce Staley (remember him?) vs the Patriots in the 2004 regular season. (btw, the Patriots D was ranked 6th against the rush that year)

FWP vs Broncos (2007): 21 car, 93 yds, 4.4 avg
0, 3, 7, 4, 27, 3, -1, -3, 1, 7, 1, 1, 15, 4, -4, -3, 24, 1, 1, 1, 4

Duce vs Patriots (2004): 25 car, 125 yds, 5.0 avg
4, 3, 3, 1, 4, 8, 2, 11, 2, 6, 3, 5, 2, 3, 4, 3, 6, 6, 6, 3, 10, 6, 4, 10, 10

As you can see, Duce had no negative rushes and only 4 out of 25 (16%) of his rushes were less than 3 yards. FWP had 11 of 21 (52%) rushes that were less than 3 yards. Regular rush attempts that are 2 yards or less are drive killers and essentially prevent you from being a run first smashmouth team (that also scores points!). You have to be able to pass the ball well to be successful.

Here's a summary of "bad" rushing attempt data from FWP's last five games:
@ DEN: 21 car, 93 yds, 4.4 avg, 52% bad
v SEA: 28 car, 102 yds, 3.6 avg, 46% bad
@ ARI: 19 car, 37 yds, 1.9 avg, 68% bad
v SF: 24 car, 133 yds, 5.5 avg, 29% bad
v BUF: 23 car, 126 yds, 5.5 avg, 43% bad

So, FWP's ability to break the big runs every now and then masks the ineffective ones when you just look at his average per attempt. I think Tomlin and Arians recognize (I suspect reluctantly) this trend of bad/ineffective rush attempts and that's why they will continue to pass more in the first half of games and in second halves till we have a big enough lead relative to the clock. I think this is smart strategy given that we have very good (and more mature) talent at the skill positions this year. Running the ball all the time when you can't actually do it in a sustainable manner will be a disaster against teams that will score a few against us. We've had great run blocking offensive lines and compatible running back styles (Bettis) for so long that we expect to be able to do that every year. The problem is we are not equipped to do it this year. We weren't able to run the ball down people's throats in '06 either but that was overshadowed by the other big problems. Sorry, Steeler Nation, I think we're just not a true smashmouth team this year. Not because we don't want to be, but because we can't be. The good news is we have coaches who seem to recognize that and are finding alternative solutions by utilizing the talent we have at other positions. After all, when was the last time we came back from 2 TDs down in the 4th quarter on the road to tie the game ?

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nice job
I would like to see more passes to Parker, and not those screen passes that take forever to develop and everyone knows are coming. Just throwing to him out in the flat, swing passes, check downs etc.

by schnifin on Oct 23, 2007 11:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

schnifin
I agree. I was sufficiently impressed by Parker's hands in the 4th quarter the other night. Perhaps there's other ways we can get him the ball.

by Blitzburgh on Oct 23, 2007 11:34 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

thanks Blitz
I agree with you guys that short passes to Parker can be a good substitute for some of those ineffective runs without being any riskier.

by santhome on Oct 24, 2007 8:15 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i totally agree.
I posted a little something to this effect a few months ago.  Willie is a great back, but he has been suspect against runstop defenses.

http://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/comments/2007/9/10/13848/9663/2#2

This is a little research i did on his 2006 campaign:

"A whopping 1059 of his yds came against just 6 teams, all of them with mediocre or even downright lousy defenses.  Cincy twice, KC, Carolina(usually a good def, but last year at the bottom of the league), Cleveland, and New Orleans.  That's a huge chunk.

Against S.D., Jax, Oak, Balt twice, Tampa, Denver, and even Atlanta and Cleveland once, he totalled 435 yds for a 3.06 avg.  In just the Denver and two Balt games did the Steelers fall behinid early and have to throw.  And I think the Atlanta game just turned into a shootout which hurt his stats.  Not to mention, the O-line was a tad shaky last year, heh."

by steelerark on Oct 24, 2007 9:40 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Very nice read
I totally agree. Willie is no smash mouth runner. He needs space to operate at his best. Willie is like a Westbrook in that sense, so by the same token you have to get him the ball like they do Westbrook. In the run AND pass game. You look at Westbrooks stat line every week and you see almost as many yards on catches as you do in the rushing game ( if not more ). I think a 2 back set would be great. Line both Davenport and Willie up back there. You can still hand it off the either or throw to either. Davenport has looked great when he gets the ball on the screens, he can punish. And getting Willie the ball in space just makes sense. Everyone always says if Willie can get to the second level of the D he becomes much more dangerous. So why not give him the ball IN the second level. Bypass the 300 lb linemen and get it to him where he has the space to make that move and be gone.

I have no problem with Willie running up the gut because he has shown he can do that, but there are going to be alot of no gains and minus yards in there too. Let Davenport bust the D in the chops and let Willie work where his talents do the most good, AND he takes alot less punishment.

I think the 2 back set would confuse the hell out of people. Put them both back there and you can motion Willie out to a slot position and let him find a open area and get him the ball on the move and let him do what he does best.

I think our offense looks pretty damn good. The Defense may have got a little high on their own press clippings after the Seattle game. This loss may not have been the worst thing for us. Make the boys focus and be ready for the divisional game stretch we got coming up. They better be because Carson is a hell of alot better then Cutler so they better step it up.

by Kirk B on Oct 24, 2007 9:51 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Good research in there
Santhome, you did great job of quantifying much of what I was thinking last year.  The main game last year that it stuck out was the Jacksonville game.  There were so many runs in the first half where Willie would get hit at the line and get stuffed.  I remember thinking that was the biggest thing we missed with Bettis retiring.  If he was in there, those no gains would have been 3 yard gains; the 1-3 yard gains would have been 4-6 yard gains.  Bettis just had that extra power to move the pile more often than not.

I definitely think that Willie should be the primary back in this offense, but I still think there are some games/defenses that we need to have a more powerful back to get those tough yards.  There was an aspect to Bettis's game the last 3-4 years of his career that was invaluable to this team, and it's missing right now.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Oct 24, 2007 10:49 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

great stuff
I think FWP is also hurt this year by so many runs out of a one back set and even when Davis is in there, he's a downgrade over Kreider. I saw an interesting stat that broke down every run that Willie had when Davis was the lead back and basically it was 7 carries for 20 yards (15 of those yards came on one play). That also means his 14 other carries were out of no-back formation because Kreider only played in down (first play of the game).

I like the idea of having Najeh and FWP in the backfield together. That would be another element that teams would have to prepare for and Najeh might not be a bad lead blocker if he had to be a couple of times a game.

by cgolden on Oct 24, 2007 11:16 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Big Ben
I think Ben is a great quarterback, but if you look at his stats he is better when he throws the ball no more than 24 times.  We have all seen this because they bring it up every week.  We should use more of Willie and Davenport.  Also why does it always seem like our passing plays break down and Ben has to scramble and do something crazy.  I don't understand how other quarterbacks just drop back and throw the ball while Ben has to make a play every other passing down.  I agree with the screens comment.  It does not work because everybody knows it is coming, but the little screens to the wide receivers were affective.

by jdzik on Oct 24, 2007 1:26 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

couple of things on the pocket breaking down
I think two things factor into this:
  1. Our line isn't what is has been in years past and Ben doesn't help them out because at times he holds on the ball too long. Ben holds onto the ball because he has faith in his ability to avoid or shrug off the first rusher, sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.
  2. For whatever reason, and I noticed it more this year, the Steelers don't leave a back in the backfield to pick up extra blitzers. That only leaves five linemen to pick up rushers meaning anytime a team brings more than 5 someone is going to come free.

by cgolden on Oct 24, 2007 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ben on the run

Interesting stats and points.  

Ben still seems confused and slow at times.
Perhaps when we line up 5, and they line up 6 (or more) Ben has flashbacks of a Chrysler New Yorker coming at him.  They better protect him with better schemes or it won't matter.  The same blockers can be used to run the ball and at other times protect Ben. Just leave one more guy to block.

What happened to the no huddle?

And, while we are at it, how did Cutler do what he did?
Why no pressure from the great Steeler Defense?

Good discussion.

by Peterg on Oct 25, 2007 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

nice job santhome
A lot of great points. That Duce game was probably his best in a Steeler uniform, but FWP's performance against Denver was not atypical. Personally, I'd rather have a potential game-changing home-run hitter who strikes out (whether or not he starts with two strikes against him because of the o-line) than a singles or doubles hitter who sets the table. I kind of disagree with the suggestion that runs of two yards or less are drive-killers. Only if it's third-and-3 or longer. Incompletions are not necessarily drive killers and the same applies to short runs. But, you're right in that smashmouth football is tough to execute with that percentage of unsuccessful running plays. There's no way Jacksonville, for example, is going to be successful with that percentage.

Another point about the Denver game. Three of our first-half drives ended with turnovers. The first turnover (the deep ball to a well-covered Holmes) was on second-and-6, preceded by just one play (a 4-yd pass); the second turnover (the tipped ball off Ward) was on second-and-9, preceded by five plays (three of them running plays for a net gain of minus-3 yards; one completion for 16 yds); the third turnover (fumble for a TD) was on second-and-10, preceded by just three plays (one run for 7 yds; one completion for 27 yds). Overall, those three drives had four runs (a net gain of four yds) and five passes (three completions for a net gain of 47 yds) before the turnover plays. On two of those turnovers the Steelers were in a passing situation and, given the production leading up to them, you can hardly blame Arians or Ben for opting to pass. You could argue that the Steelers could have run the ball on second-and-6 on the first turnover possession, but the same kind of thinking on the third turnover possession would have had us running the ball on second-and-3 rather than making a 27-yard gain on a pass. The only time I felt we definitely should have run the ball was on our second series, when we followed up a seven-yard run on first down by Willie with two incompletions and a punt.  I can't remember, but maybe Hines dropped one of those passes. After passing down the field the first drive, I thought we had an opportunity to establish the run on the second drive. Perhaps we would have if the offense had taken the field with a 7-0 lead rather than after a Denver TD to tie the game.

Overall, this gets back to my belief that we have a balanced offense with multiple weapons, but when the line breaks down we are going to struggle and people will point to play-calling rather than on the source of the problem: BAD BLOCKING!!!!

This balanced, multi-weapon offense philosophy will keep all of us second-guessers busy, sometimes even when we win. Just look at the discussion about FWP being used too much after a few wins. For example: I kind of agree with people who want more of a two-back set. Davis (or Kreider) can help protect Ben as well as lead FWP.  The split-back concept (Najeh and FWP) is interesting but very old-fashioned. Maybe it would work, maybe not. At the same time, I like our 2 TE sets. That presents a big challenge to the defense and might be what is helping Miller get open, not to mention being effective with Spaeth in the red zone. I don't know if we have been successful running the ball out of the 2 TE set, my feeling is no but I could be wrong. I also like the idea of a spread formation with four receivers (3 WR and Heath split out, with a single back). We have enough talent to make it work and, given our o-line problems, maybe that is the best set for a quick pass to negate pass pressure. So, this kind of sums up the offensive conundrum. We have a variety of ways to move the ball, any of which can be effective depending on the opponent. But we also have a variety of ways that we can screw up, ESPECIALLY when we don't do a good job up front.

I don't think there is anything wrong with our offense, the game plan or, in general, the play-calling. We MUST fix the blocking problems. Then we can all go back to arguing about play-selection after wins. Thats's much more fun.

Yes, I definitely like the idea of getting Willie the ball on swing passes or in underneath areas. As mentioned above, it's a great way to get him into the second level. But he isn't in the same class of receiver as Westbrook or Tomlinson. He was wide open on those two plays and made an easy catch; they won't all be easy. In any event, perhaps Davenport is a better third-down receiver out of the backfield. Holmes is impressing me with his toughness and concentration in traffic, and Hines has made a living off of tough catches. With Miller, we have more than enough weapons in the short passing game. It all comes down to execution, not play selection.

by steeler lifer on Oct 24, 2007 4:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Tomlin Criticism
One of the points I was making by way of the original post was that I didn't think that Tomlin/Arians deserve the criticism they are getting about passing too much. Given where our strengths on offense are this year we need to have a flexible approach and be ready to throw more to build leads.

The media, for the most part, has latched on to slightly higher than average pass-run ratio as being the primary cause for defeat because of the Broncos inferior run defense ranking. PG's Ed Bouchette tears into Tomlin pretty good. ESPN.com has Tomlin as one of the options in a poll question to determine which coach of a team with a winning record is holding their team back the most. The supposedly neutral AP has a story that's mildly critical as well.

Joe Starkey of the tribune review takes the minority view and doesn't find anything wrong with the gameplan while correctly pointing out that excluding, the two minute drill, we 17 passes and 11 runs in the first half against Denver as compared to 15 passes and 12 runs in the first half against Seattle. So the problem wasn't play calling, but execution.

by santhome on Oct 24, 2007 4:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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