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Draft and Timmons

Blitzburgh opened up an interesting discussion on NFL studs and duds at around the halfway pt. of the season and there were a couple comments about Timmons being possibly the worst rookie, at least relative to his draft position.

Nothing wrong with discussing best rookie and obviously Adrian Peterson is the leader so far.  Marshawn Lynch is almost as good. The other first-rounders that have impressed me the most (that I've seen play) are Okoye, Willis, Landry, Johnson, Bowe, Spencer and Gonzalez.

But it's way too early to pick worst rookie or, more appropriately, biggest first-round bust. I know there is some frustration about Timmons' progress but, from what I've seen on ST, he has some special athletic ability that could translate into him being a very good player someday. He was one of the youngest guys picked in the '07 Draft (just 21 years old now) and is the youngest guy on our team, almost two years younger than Woodley, so he has a lot of development ahead of him yet. Woodley came here closer to being NFL ready than Timmons in terms of maturity, experience and strength and I think we are all anxiously awaiting his first taste of major playing minutes. But even between Timmons and Woodley, I don't think we can predict who will be the better player four years from now.

The most important thing for rookies, even first-rounders, is opportunity. The Steelers, for better or worse, did not draft early on Day 1 for current need, other than the need to upgrade their backup linebackers. There hasn't been an injury yet or a slacking off in play from the starting linebackers to open the door for Timmons or Woodley to play much. That's a good thing for the team, not a slight on our rookies.

Looking at the 14 guys picked ahead of Timmons, I would say only two of them might have played themselves into first-string duty for the Steelers: OTs Joe Thomas and Levi Brown. That's strictly a result of the opportunity that existed at RT on our o-line. There's no way even the much-maligned Simmons, fresh off a new contract, was going to lose his starting spot right away to a rookie guard like Ben Grubbs or Arron Sears, the first two guards picked in the draft.

Without knowing the circumstances of all the '07 first-rounders, there are two who stand out as possible busts: DT Justin Harrell (16th, Green Bay) and WR Robert Meachem (27th, New Orleans). Both had an opportunity to contribute right away based on opportunity and neither has done so. Harrell was a reach because he had been injured in college, and he reported to camp overweight and has continued to be hurt in Green Bay, playing just two games in limited duty. Meachem, the fourth wide receiver taken in the draft, has not even been activated to play a game yet. He came into a perfect situation to contribute right away: a team with a very good QB that needed wide receivers after losing Joe Horn and having little WR depth. He has been dinged up (once courtesy of William Gay!!!!) but shown very little even when healthy. Most of the other wide receivers taken immediately after him have made at least a few catches, as far down as third-rounder James Jones (Green Bay), who looked pretty good beating Champ Bailey on Monday night and running about five miles for a touchdown. Even with Meachem, it's too soon to make any kind of evaluation about how good he might become. But if I was a Saints' fan, I'd be pissed off.

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For a better question...
...what's with the expectation that a first-round pick (or any draft pick, for that matter) is going to seriously contribute during their first season at all?

I don't watch much college football, but I would think as far as defense goes, there's a much larger transition in learning NFL defensive schemes than there is for some of the offensive positions.

Either way, the only reason to rush someone into playing before he's ready is if your team has a major need to be filled; our linebacker core certainly doesn't. On the other hand, look what Buffalo did with Posluszny; they started him in week 1 and by week 3, he's on IR, out for the season.

That may just be bad luck, but I see no reason to push the rookies that far if it isn't absolutely necessary. We have the opportunity to get him used to NFL football. Might as well take advantage of it.

by HinesField on Nov 1, 2007 5:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Some rookies are ready
The stronger the team, the more likely your first-rounder or other draftees won't make a big impact. Some positions (running back, wide receiver, defensive tackle) are easier for top-end college guys to make the transition to NFL. But in general there is nothing wrong with expecting your first-round pick to be an impact player, the sooner the better. The Colts, for example, have a No. 3 receiver (1st-rounder Gonzalez) making a nice contribution and a starting left tackle (2nd-round pick Ugoh) because of opportunity and great scouting. You really can't afford to be drafting first-rounders who continually turn out to be average at best or, in a nightmare scenario, a total bust.

I think our '07 draft will turn out to be a good one.  We have five roster players from the Draft and that is terrific, it's just a question of how good those players become. Timmons' ceiling is still unknown and that's why there is some concern. It's not necessarily wrong to be worried a little bit, but I think it's premature in his case because of his youth and the depth in our linebackers. In the meantime, he is staying healthy and making plays on special teams. Woodley has already shown a lot. Spaeth has good hands and is more athletic than I thought he would be. Sepulveda could be a 10-year keeper and Gay has already upgraded our secondary by displacing Colclough and getting some playing time without screwing up. McBean is a project and we are not hearing great things about him from the practice field, so I have doubts he will pan out. Baker probably won't make it and Stephenson is now in Green Bay after being cut. If Timmons and-or Woodley become all-pro linebackers, then this will be one of our better drafts of the last 20 years.

by steeler lifer on Nov 1, 2007 6:18 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Here was my thinking...
In my highly uneducated mind, a first round pick should contribute something to his team. Quarterback is my only exception because college offenses are for the most part are far inferior to pro offenses. With that being said I know Timmons has a more difficult learning curve because he missed nearly all of training camp with an injury and he's switched positions to ILB.

Also in my defense, I didn't say he was a draft 'bust' but the question was 'who is the worst rookie to this date.' I know it's way, way, way to early to say a guy is a bust after 7 games into a season but 'to this date' he is in the discussion as the worst first round pick in my mind.

"I couldn't find London on a map if they didn't have the names of the countries, I don't know what nothing is. I know Italy looks like a boot." - MIA LB Crowder

by cgolden on Nov 1, 2007 6:42 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

golden, high expectations are cool
Nothing wrong with expecting a lot out of Timmons and you're right, he has to contribute a lot more at some point to justify being picked 15th overall. Anyone picked that high SHOULD eventually force teams to give him playing time and become an impact player. I would say the guy he competed against in camp, James Harrison, has been our best LB this year so the door to more playing time is still closed. Timmons might be better at ILB but, either way, he has not been a disappointment in my books. Other draftees on other teams have done worse.

I like what I see when he is on the field. He's green as grass and makes mental mistakes but he's an athlete and a banger. It's not unusual for high picks, especially non-linemen, to show their stuff only on special teams as rookies. The fact he has stayed healthy is a good sign because the ones who can't hack it, or prove to be busts, are either overwhelmed physically, or mentally pull the plug by claiming they are a little too banged up to play through the pain. It would be interesting to see how hard Timmons works in practise but I know there was a story not long ago about how he has been impressive and is picking things up. That might have been company line b.s., but maybe it's true. I think there was a little heat on Spaeth earlier this year when he missed a couple weeks. Tomlin had one quote about Spaeth at that time, along the lines of Spaeth ''learning about playing through the aches and pains that are part of an NFL tight end's life''.  Spaeth was back soon after.

Timmons and Woodley might get called on anytime because of injury. The rookie OLB-DE Spencer in Dallas has looked good, but he didn't have to beat out anyone to get playing time, the starter was hurt and Spencer was next in line. Let's see what happens when the same happens for Timmons. But I won't start worrying about him until at least next season's training camp.

by steeler lifer on Nov 1, 2007 7:20 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Also keep in mind that
Timmons was only a one year starter in college and left after his Junior year. So the learning curve is going to be steeper than most LBs coming out of college.

But based on that, I think that he's got a lot of potential since he got drafted at #15 considering his college resume.

by steelinnj on Nov 1, 2007 9:10 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

steeler lifer
Good stuff as well.

Only thing I'd say is that Patrck Willis would find a way onto our starting defense, even if it did mean a veteran's feelings got hurt. That guy can flat out play.

by Blitzburgh on Nov 1, 2007 11:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

willis
that kid is a player

by schnifin on Nov 2, 2007 12:02 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Good Subject - steelerlifer
This was a good subject. When talking about the 5 rookies we drafted, don't forget the two free agents that made the team - C Darnell Stapleton and RB Gary Russell. I didn't focus much on Stapleton in the preseason since he missed most of it. The time that I did see him, he seemed to play with real good technique.

Now with Russell, mark my word. The guy is a banger. As soon as he gets some burn, he's going to get some of Willie's carries. Yep, he's going to be that good. If he would have stayed in school, he would have been a 2nd round pick. So, this class has seven rookies to keep an eye on.

I think Timmons will make his impact at ILB, and not on the outside. This team could really use his athleticism and coverage ability in the middle of the field. He's the type of LB that the team needs in the middle in coverage, which would allow he and Farrior to stay on the field all 3 downs. I think the backup to James Harrison will end up being Andre Frazier, who you guys will see more of on special teams as the season goes on.

By the way, Anthony Madison coming back to special teams was a GREAT move. More hitting and speed on special teams, and he is very good as a gunner.

by datruth4life on Nov 2, 2007 12:05 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

datruth
Any chance Russell takes over for Najeh at some point this year?

by Blitzburgh on Nov 2, 2007 12:48 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

good points truth
Glad you pointed out the free agents because that is important. Don't look any further than FWP for proof of that. Same with Nate Washington. This year, the Colts got their No. 2 running back, Kenton Keith, as a free agent out of the CFL and that guy is making a big contribution. He might even be better than Adai, who has incredible cut-back skills but stumbles over his own feet more than any good back I've seen.

I totally agree with you about Timmons eventually playing inside. His speed and range seem a better fit in the middle of the field than on the edge. He doesn't have the ideal size (only 6-0, 235) to be a great matchup as a 3-4 OLB, but there are always exceptions to the rule and maybe he is, too. If he plays outside and has any hands, he will inevitably take an interception or two to the house.

I know about Russell's history and obviously the guy has talent. He was a good free agent pickup. But barring injury he won't likely even be activated this year, let alone get any of FWP's carries. Physical ability is only part of the equation. Russell didn't have his head screwed on straight at Minnesota (and for a year after he dropped out) so I'm already disinclined to think he can do what Parker did coming out of college, which is work like hell to prove everyone wrong.  Parker still has that attitude and is very rarely satisfied with his performance. Maybe Russell has what it takes mentally, maybe not. The fact he had a good camp and preseason and is still around is a sign that he has his shit together. Maybe he is just a short-term insurance policy. My feeling is that if Parker suffered a serious injury, the Steelers would sign or acquire someone with NFL playing experience within 72 hours to back up Davenport.

The ability to learn and endure tough times is the big intangible for every player and what most scouts have no clue about when they are assessing college talent.  Even a guy who is really bright might not be able to cope with the learning curve required to become an NFler, and I include learning about how to cope with injuries and maintaining a totally focused belief in your goals . Mike Tyson was an idiot, but he had the ability to learn what Cus D'Amato was teaching him to do and he had absolute confidence in himself. He didn't have the ability to learn from adversity, inside or outside the ring.

Intelligence and heart will determine how good Timmons will become or whether someone like Russell will ever even get a carry in the NFL. It's what is determining the growth we are seeing in Roethlisberger. We all know he has guts but he also has a brain -- maybe a very good one despite the ''aw-shucks, I'm just trying to make a play and you can count on me to be a doofus sometimes" image he projects -- and you can see the wheels are turning there. He seems to be embracing the partnership he has with Arians after being a game-management servant under Whisenhunt. I suspect Ken Anderson, one of the smartest QBs to ever play in the NFL, is having a good impact on Ben in his growing understanding of the game.

Timmons has the physical tools. We have no idea yet if he is smart enough to learn how to be a good or great NFL linebacker. He didn't play enough in college for anyone to be sure of that. He's really young. I don't blame him for coming out for the draft, but he probably should have stayed in college another year. The Steelers could have made a much safer pick at No. 15.  There's no doubt they would have drafted Willis instead if he had been available, but as much as I like Willis (and he is a stud) I'm not convinced he beats out Larry Foote on a team that is contending for the Super Bowl, not rebuilding.  Timmons was a high-risk pick so it's only natural to be a little worried about him, but he has a  ton of potential and we need some patience.  In the meantime, he is making tackles on kicks and showing he is an athlete with some guts and commitment.

As for Russell, he might be a great banger or even more than that, but he is in somewhat the same boat and even further from shore. He has a lot to learn. You don't have to be a brain surgeon to be an NFL player, but you do have to be able to learn from failure and process information and adapt physical tools to playing field reality. Considering Willie's age and Davenport's capability and Russell's track record, I wouldn't be surprised if Russell ends up with another team before he ever gets into a game as a Steeler. A year practising with the Steelers will do him a lot of good. I think we are covered in any case and, if someone gets hurt this year, maybe he will step in and help us win a game or two.

I'm more hopeful and optimistic about Stapleton, because he has beaten out drafted players to earn his spot on the depth chart and is playing a position that might need upgrading in the near future.

by steeler lifer on Nov 2, 2007 5:15 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Willis would be a starter on this team
I like Foote but he's not the player that Willis is, even as a rookie. Willis has all the tools and has the potentional to become great.
"I couldn't find London on a map if they didn't have the names of the countries, I don't know what nothing is. I know Italy looks like a boot." - MIA LB Crowder

by cgolden on Nov 2, 2007 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just to recap
It sounds like the general consesus is Timmons is/was a young, raw player with tons athletic ability who has to much to learn to contribute on the regular defense.

I'm wondering if you guys think the Steelers 'reached' by picking him at 15? How much further would he have fallen if the Steelers wanted to trade down to take him?

Also does the idea of moving a 235 pound guys with good speed/range to ILB make anyone else think that Tomlin sees this guy as his middle linebacker in the Cover 2 in the future?

"I couldn't find London on a map if they didn't have the names of the countries, I don't know what nothing is. I know Italy looks like a boot." - MIA LB Crowder

by cgolden on Nov 2, 2007 8:42 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

G. Russell
If the Steelers see any injuries at RB, they will resign Verron Hayes and go from there. If there are no injuries at RB this year, then Gary Russell isn't going to see the field. That would be a good thing. However, I feel that when he gets his chance, he is going to impress. I like the way he runs, especially near the goal line, and he is great at picking up blitzes.

He's going to be a good running back. I'm not saying he will be Barry Sanders, but he is a good football player. Timmons needs his redshirt year in this defense. I think his coverage ability will be something that the Steelers haven't had since Farrior was at the top of his game about 3 years ago. Can you imagine having two ILBs in the 3-4 that you never have to take off the field? That opens up your defense to do so much more.

I'm willing to show patience and give the kid a chance. Troy looked pretty lost his first year, too.

And by the way, I do agree with Bruce Arians. I think Ed Reed is a better overall football player than Troy.

by datruth4life on Nov 2, 2007 11:08 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

me too
I love Troy, but I think Reed is the best safety in football.

by steelerark on Nov 3, 2007 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good rookie class
All in all, guys, I think this is a pretty good rookie class. You never know, maybe McBean and Dallas Baker will be helped by the redshirt year on the practice squad and show something before it is all over with as well.

I do know one thing. If they don't show anything that could help this football team, they won't be around. Tomlin doesn't appear to be the type of coach that will keep people on the squad just for the hell of it. You either have to carry your weight or someone else will do it for you. Competition is the only way you can have a great team year in and year out.

by datruth4life on Nov 4, 2007 1:18 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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