What needs to happen for various Steelers playoff scenarios

by steelerinchicago on Dec 21, 2007 3:47 PM EST

For those of you wondering if the Steelers have clinched a playoff spot, this link and subsequent discussion clears up the air. Thanks to steelerinchicago and others for talking through the various possibilities succintly. I appreciate the contributions guys and gals, like I said, I missed this game traveling, so thanks for picking up the slack.

-Blitz-

This comes from http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/steelersclinch.html

Steelers Clinching Options

Playoff Spot #1
The Steelers cannot win this playoff spot

Playoff Spot #2
The Steelers cannot win this playoff spot

Playoff Spot #3
Case 1
Steelers beat the Ravens, and

Broncos beat the Chargers

Case 2
Steelers beat the Ravens, and
Raiders beat the Chargers

Case 3
Bengals beat the Browns, and
Broncos beat the Chargers, and
Raiders beat the Chargers

Case 4
Broncos beat the Chargers, and
Forty-Niners beat the Browns, and
Raiders beat the Chargers

Playoff Spot #4
Case 1
Bengals beat the Browns

Case 2
Forty-Niners beat the Browns

Case 3
Steelers beat the Ravens

Playoff Spot #5

No clinching cases were found for this playoff spot

Playoff Spot #6
Case 1
Jets beat the Titans

Case 2
Colts beat the Titans

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Comments

Question about #6 spot

Can anyone clarify if we already have this locked up? Most sources say that we still need the Titans to lose one but I think both Gerry Dulac of the PG and ESPNEWS scoring updates mentioned that beating the Rams would be enough. Was that correct?

In a tie-breaker with the Titans, head-to-head doesn't apply and we'd have the same conference record so I would think it comes down to "best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four" and we win that one if you do the following calculation:
Steelers: CIN(W), @CIN(W), JAC(L), @DEN(L) = 0.500
Titans: @CIN(L), @JAC(W), JAC(L), @DEN(L) = 0.250

Or are four distinct common opponents needed for this tie-breaker to apply? If it doesn't, strength of victory would be the next tie-breaker and that would favor the Titans since they would have to beat Indy (12+ wins) to get to 10-6.

by santhome on Dec 21, 2007 11:49 AM EST reply actions

According to NFL.com

Either CLE or TEN has to lose or tie this weekend for the Steelers to clinch.

"The more violent team will win tonight" - Mike Tomlin.

by cgolden on Dec 21, 2007 12:00 PM EST up reply actions

common games

The Jets loss is the one that will come back to haunt us if we end up in a tie with the Titans. If the Titans beat the Jets this weekend, that adds a fifth common opponent, and both the Steelers and Titans would be 2-3 in those games.

That would send the tie-breaker to strength of victory, which would probably favor the Titans, although I haven't done the calculation. That's why we haven't clinched yet.

Basically, to make it in, we need a win next week, or a Titans or Browns loss either this week or next week.

by nycsteeler on Dec 21, 2007 12:26 PM EST up reply actions

Got it...

Thanks. I'd totally erased that Jets loss from memory...

by santhome on Dec 21, 2007 1:03 PM EST up reply actions

as we all tried to do

"The more violent team will win tonight" - Mike Tomlin.

by cgolden on Dec 21, 2007 1:05 PM EST up reply actions

Looks like

we need the Titans to lose so we have the last seed locked in so I don't think we have anything locked in yet. If the Browns lose either of their last 2 games we get the 4 seed. It looks tough to get the 3 seed right now. We need to the Chargers to lose to the Broncos or Raiders and we must beat the Ravens.

So worst case scenario is Titans win out, Browns win out and we lose to Baltimore. But we have our fate in our hands. We win the division and the 4 seed if we beat the Ravens.

"It's time to plant some seeds. What that means is, hit them in the mouth. Ya know, plant some seeds. Show 'em what time it is." --Levon Kirkland

by steelerinchicago on Dec 21, 2007 12:12 PM EST reply actions

Whoops

Yes, if the Browns lose we lock up the 4th seed this week. Titans lose, lock up 6 seed. Browns lose, lock up 4th seed.

"It's time to plant some seeds. What that means is, hit them in the mouth. Ya know, plant some seeds. Show 'em what time it is." --Levon Kirkland

by steelerinchicago on Dec 21, 2007 12:13 PM EST up reply actions

Value of #3 seed vs extra rest

If the Browns lose this weekend and SD wins, I'd rather treat the Ravens game as our bye week than risk injury fighting for an unlikely #3 seed. Should we fear the Jaguars that much more a second time? I think the Browns could also challenge us as much.

by santhome on Dec 21, 2007 1:07 PM EST up reply actions

basically,

I thinkg we would all feel a whole hell of a lot better if we just win next week against the Cravens. A #3 or 4 seed doesn't really matter much to me, we will have to face the Pats at some point if we win at all in the POs.

by steelerark on Dec 21, 2007 1:17 PM EST reply actions

Three seed is better

For one thing, we have experience going into Indy and knocking them off. Also, it allows an extra week for someone else (San Diego) to have a chance at beating New England, and thirdly, the three seed has a chance to host the AFC championship much better than the four seed. I believe it happened last season and the home three-seed went on to win the Super Bowl.

Tim

by maryrose on Dec 22, 2007 7:56 PM EST up reply actions

injury worry

I worry about injury against the Ravens; especially to the one guy we absolutely need healthy - Ben. He always takes a beating against them and I'd rather give up on the #4 seed than risk that. 2004 - Suggs gave him bruised ribs; 2005 - he had his knee scoped after MNF vs the Ravens; 2006 - Bart Scott hit; 2007 - the hip injury scare after the game was already won.

by santhome on Dec 21, 2007 2:50 PM EST reply actions

give up on the #3 seed...

...is what I meant

by santhome on Dec 21, 2007 2:51 PM EST up reply actions

If

Cleveland loses this weekend I would agree with you. The chances of SD losing are remote.

If Cleveland wins we will have to beat the Ravens.

"It's time to plant some seeds. What that means is, hit them in the mouth. Ya know, plant some seeds. Show 'em what time it is." --Levon Kirkland

by steelerinchicago on Dec 21, 2007 3:37 PM EST up reply actions

of course...

...no option but to go all out against the Ravens if the division isn't wrapped up this weekend.

by santhome on Dec 21, 2007 3:40 PM EST up reply actions

Just curious

What would you rather...Go to San Diego or be at home to Jax? The Steelers have been more successful in the six hole than they have been at home vs. Jax recently.

Another question, is it better to play the Browns at home or Jax at home?

Tim

by maryrose on Dec 22, 2007 7:52 PM EST reply actions