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Around SBN: Jeremy Lin Continues Rampage, New York Wins On Road

2 Yards - Can They?

Do you remember when the B&G could get 3 yards anytime, but a 10 point deficit was a death sentence?  Those days are gone forever (?) (should we just let 'em go?).

Star-divide

This is not a careful analysis based on stats.  This is about a gut feel.  My feeling about the 2007 Steelers is that they can't get convert 3rd and 2 against a good defensive line without passing the ball.  This is especially so on a wet field because FWP just cannot run on a wet/bad field from what I have seen, and I have seen enough!

This is very odd, historically.  It has often been the case that the Steelers 'skill' positions have lagged the brute force positions.  To me it seems that this has been reversed.  I like the Steelers chances on turf and I like them on dry grass, against ANYBODY.  I do not, however, like their chances on mud or snow (against the same).  If not for Big Ben's great season, I think we'd all be talking (more) about the serious loss of sheer horsepower from the O-line.  Again, I know this isn't news to anyone here, but my therapist tells me it is useful to express my feelings.

If the playoffs come and we face a big line (Jags), I will be worried, which sucks.  I really do not like the prospect of losing to power teams on a power basis - it offends my notion of Steeler identity, which is why losses to the Ravens have always stung me worse than other div loses.  Now, BB may be able to beat the Jags even with a bad running day from FWP, maybe in the snow - that is this team's saving grace.  This year, being down 10 is not a death sentence.  Even more, BB may be able to beat Manning and/or Brady, especially given good turf and better decision making early in the game.  But this brings me to a final hypothetical...

Could the Steelers put away either Indy or NE given precipitation, a 10 point lead, 12 minutes left and the ball?  Could they grind out 6 minutes and 3 pts?  I don't think they could, except maybe in a dome.  In a snowy NE, they might have to keep throwing because they can't get 2 yards when it counts.  

In sum, the security blanket is gone and tossed in the fire, folks.  The Steelers are a pass-first team with a smothering defense, with much in common with Philly and NE teams of recent vintage in that regard (sans outstanding pass protection).  BB's play will determine the outcome of the season, period.  Cowher would have never had it this way.  However, he only won 1 in 15 and maybe, just maybe (though not likely), the new regime's willingness to take more risk for more reward will be, well, rewarded in these modern times.  I'll have my antacids pop-pop-fizz-fizzing and I'll be chewing my towel to shreds as I watch the games to find out.

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in short
You're probably exactly right, but I'm not sure it's thats all bad. I wouldn't bet a dime on the Steelers chances to punch in a touchdown from the 2 if they had to pound the rock. But in this era of the NFL, I think its more important to have a good passing game than a dominant running game. I know that's blasphemy, as a Steeler fan but I really think thats the way the game is played right now.

With all of that being said, I still think it's a problem that should needs to be addressed in the offseason. I just don't think they can do much about it this season. They tried everything from Davis at RB and Chris K at FB to having 3 tight ends and Max Starks in the lineup.

"The more violent team will win tonight" - Mike Tomlin.

by cgolden on Dec 3, 2007 4:26 PM EST reply actions  

this is a great diary
And I agree completely that this team can't chew up clock if need be - at least we haven't been able to for quite some time now. But FWP also hasn't run on a good track in quite some time either. I don't think there's any denying that this team has a different identity and a different MO for success than in year's past. But I'd also say that the two best teams in the AFC - IND and NE - aren't as good on defense as some might want to believe. Indy's been lights out all year, but the loss of Freeney and a few others on defense could put them back in their more familiar position of defensive mediocrity. As for NE? Who knows. Everyone's playing catch-up against them, so their run D hasnt been pushed to the limits yet at all.

by Michael Bean on Dec 3, 2007 4:33 PM EST reply actions  

encouraging
That goaline rollout of Ben was very encouraging in that respect. Whoever was saying Ben has some Vince Young in him was right. Let Ben get out and make the decision to throw/tuck on some of those spots. Its kinda sad to say but often Ben is our most effective runner.

by schnifin on Dec 3, 2007 4:56 PM EST reply actions  

hehe
I'm sure the real die-hard VY lovers would take exeception to my comparison, but really, I think it makes sense. You're not going to make a living breaking off huge runs as a QB in this league, so any difference in their abilities to break a long one is pretty unimportant as it relates to a potential impact on a football game. We need to role out Ben some more and A) cross our fingers he doesnt get hurt and B) cross our fingers he makes the right decision between throwing and taking off.

by Michael Bean on Dec 3, 2007 5:40 PM EST up reply actions  

100% agree
I would love to see him rolling out more. Also still waiting to Willie more involved in the passing game, especially when the run isn't working so well.

by schnifin on Dec 3, 2007 6:45 PM EST up reply actions  

after thinking about this some more
I really like the thoughts posted in this diary. I agree that we're probably going to have to win this game through the air for the most part, but after watching Brady lead one 4th quarter comeback after another, it's really going to be important to convert on 3rd and short with our running game at times. We'll need a big play down the field, but I think we'd be better off sticking with the short stuff to Hines, Heath, et. al. A Spaeth sighting might be helpful as well in the redzone this week.

But in the end, if this game is decided in the 4th quarter (please Football gods, let it please be a close game!), hopefully our running game will be able to put it away.

by Michael Bean on Dec 4, 2007 10:28 PM EST reply actions  

I will say this
I agree that the proof is in the pudding that this team can't grind it out with the run against good physical teams, or maybe against anybody for that matter. But I would say this: Willie Parker has been doubted his entire career, dating back to North Carolina. When times are most bleak for FWP, he responds. I have my concerns with his style on a bad surface (which unfortunately is a big part of the game frequently on fields in the midwest and northeast come winter time), and concerns with our offensive line. But I still have faith that Parker can will his way to success and perform at a higher level on any given week. If nothing else, I wholeheartedly expect him to correct the fumbling problem this week.

by Michael Bean on Dec 4, 2007 10:33 PM EST reply actions  

field
and the surface at NE is one of the best so field condition shouldn't be a factor.
"The more violent team will win tonight" - Mike Tomlin.

by cgolden on Dec 5, 2007 7:57 AM EST up reply actions  

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