Bumped. Fantastic stuff from steeler lifer once again. Thanks as well to maryrose for the mega database he put together. You can get a copy of his work by emailing the address he provides in this diary.

-Blitz-

The Draft is still almost three months away but the cyber world is full of draftniks and prospect gurus. So why should we in Steeler-land be any different? With that in mind, I decided to try to get a handle on who we might end up seeing as new Steelers in late April.

This is not going to be an easy year for the Steelers to make a big splash in the Draft. They don't have a really high pick (23rd overall), nor do they have a lot of picks (six). Nor will they lessen the pressure for a good draft by signing two or three impact free agents. That's just something they don't do. On top of that, they go into the draft needing immediate help on the offensive line and rotation guys on the d-line. Those positions won't provide much help on coverage teams. They also need a kick returner.

We only have six picks, and obviously all of our needs can't be met in the draft. Everyone has their own opinion about the Steelers needs. Here is my top five list:

1. Center: We have no upside except longshot prospect Darnell Stapleton or conversion project Simmons.
   
2. Offensive Tackle (even if Starks returns): We don't have a guy who, in two years, we can say for sure will be a first-rate LOT, trusted with protecting our first-rate QB. We need to try to get that guy in this year's draft.
   
3. DE: We have no backups behind Keisel and Smith except longshot prospect Ryan McBean
   
4. LB: We have little depth or quality behind Harrison and Woodley, and Farrior is near the end of his career.
   
5. Kick returner: We have Rossum, nuff said.

There are other needs. We have only mediocre receiving threats out of the backfield. We could use a better power runner. We need a big WR for depth and red zone efficiency. No one would sneeze at getting a top-class CB. But we only have six picks. There will be plenty of WRs, RBs and FBs who go undrafted and post-Draft efficiency with FAs is a Steeler strong suit.

As far as the Draft is concerned, obviously there are some good prospects to fill the needs. But our relatively late Draft position, and having just six picks, make it tricky. For example, at No. 23 we may miss out on the consensus top five OTs (Long, Clady, Otah, Baker, Williams). The alleged best center available (Mike Pollak) is a late second-rounder at best but he could be gone by the time we make our third pick. Let's say none of those top five OTs are available, and we pick, for example, a good DL like Kentwan Balmer or DE Philip Merling, in the hope that a good second tier OT is available in the second round. Well, OTs Gosder Cherilus, Carl Nicks and Anthony Collins might also all be gone by the time our second pick rolls around. Left Tackle is a tough position to fill, requiring a better athlete than any other line position, and yet we could easily not get a crack at anyone in the top 10 (by the time our third-round pick rolls around).

With the diversity of needs, I think the Steelers should be looking at trading down. I went through two draft projections, one with the Steelers' current six picks, another after a fictional trade with Buffalo. The purpose was to see what difference a trade might make, from the perspective of losing first-round quality and gaining draft quantity. The proposed trade, Pittsburgh's first-rounder for Buffalo picks in the top half of the 2nd, 3rd and 5th rounds, follows the NFL Draft Value chart. A deal would make sense for Buffalo, too. They have extra picks in the 3rd and 5th rounds. Their top needs are CB, WR and LB. Two first-round picks at No. 11 and No. 23 could be used to meet two of those needs with logical, ready-to-start picks; for example, LB Keith Rivers at No. 11, followed at No. 23 by either a big WR like Malcolm Kelly or James Hardy, or a CB like Antonio Rodgers-Cromartie or Antoine Cason. None of those guys are expected to be around for Buffalo's current second-round pîck. Even with the trade the Bills would also still have picks in the upper half of rounds 3-7. My feeling is that it would be a great trade for the Steelers, and a good one (potentially great) for the Bills.

I tried to be as conservative as possible for each projection. The best resource is NFL Draft Scout. There are plenty of other good sites but that one is updated regularly and has extensive position rankings and draft projections that reflect recent results, workouts, injuries, etc. My guideline was that I couldn't pick a Steeler draftee in that round if NFL Draft Scout had the player ranked higher. I would cross-reference to a number of other mock drafts and try not to be too optimistic that Player X would still be available.

The overall draft number beside the picks takes into account three forfeited draft picks. Draft positions also change in each round because teams that have the same record rotate their draft spots within that group. I used the DraftTek six-round draft as the guideline for position in each round.

In each case I have named at least two possible choices. The first choice would be preferred but the secondary choice tries to take into account earlier picks. I've seen only a handful of these players on TV so this is totally speculative, but their physical attributes, position, statistical performance and style of play combine to make them seem like good additions to the Steelers at this very preliminary point in time.

DRAFT SCENARIOS
CURRENT PICKS
Rnd (No.)     Player                                   

1. (23) OT Jeff Otah, OT Chris Williams or OT Sam Baker
   
2. (54) C Mike Pollak or DL Dre Moore
   
3. (88) OLB Ezra Butler or DL Kendall Langford
   
4. (149) WR-KR Kevin Robinson or RB Justin Forsett
   
5. (119) DL Kellen Dykes or C Fernando Velasco
   
6. (180) LB Thomas Williams, DE Chase Ortiz or LB-DE Jameel McLain
   
7. No pick

NOTES:
Rnd 1: While it's possible that all five of the top OTs will be gone, it's not unreasonable to expect at least one to be around. I excluded Cherilus from this list because he seems limited to RT only and has dropped in many projections.
Rnd 2: There is a very good chance Pollak will be available, as this is much higher than most projections have him rated. But he's apparently the best center available, played well at the Senior Bowl and might be gone before the late third-round pick. Moore has plenty of detractors but this is where he is slotted and he has talent.
Rnd 3: Athletic LBs with size, speed and college experience at the position are hard to find past this round. Butler, a three-year starter at the SAM position, fits in all three areas and would contribute to special teams. Langford has size and potential. Another possibility is DE Jason Jones or C John Sullivan.
Rnd 4: Robinson had a great NCAA career on PR and KR, and adds depth to WR. Forsett  is a third-down back with good hands, quickness and moves, very little kick return experience but has the tools to be a KO return candidate at least.
Rnd 5: Crucial to pick a DL at this point if none taken so far. Dykes should be available (listed sixth-rounder). If we already have a DL but no center, then the best center available might be Velasco.
Rnd 6: Williams was a back-up at all LB positions at USC, played a lot and was named a top special teams performer. Ortiz is an undersized but nonstop, quick DE who could be converted to a two-down ILB or come off the edge, as well as help special teams. McLain is tough, aggressive and another ST contributor.

Summary: Preferred selections for each round would be OT Jeff Otah, C Mike Pollak, OLB Ezra Butler, WR-KR Kevin Robinson, DL Kellen Dykes and LB Thomas Williams. Pollak is obviously a reach but meets the biggest need and will be given every chance to contribute quickly. Butler is risky but a great athlete who should be available. Robinson might be a godsend, DL Kellen Dykes should be useful and the last round is up for grabs among ST contributors..

BUFFALO TRADE VERSION
(1st Rounder for 2nd, 3rd and 5th Rounders)
Rnd (No.)     Player

2. (41) OT Carl Nicks or OT Anthony Collins
   
2. (54) C Mike Pollak or DL Dre Moore
   
3. (71) RB Matt Forte or DL Kendall Langford
   
3. (88)  OLB Ezra Butler or WR Jordy Nelson
   
4. (135) WR-KR Kevin Robinson or RB Justin Forsett
   
5. (119) DL Kellen Dykes or C Fernando Velasco
   
5. (148) SS Caleb Campbell or ILB Spencer Larsen
   
6. (180) LB Thomas Williams, DE Chase Ortiz or LB-DE Jameel McLain
   
7. No pick

NOTES
Rnd 2: Cherilus is unlikely to be available but another of the second-tier OTs should be at No. 41. Besides Moore, other DL candidates are Trevor Laws and Marcus Harrison.
Rnd 3: LB is a much greater need than RB but if Forte is still available, he would be hard to overlook. An all-purpose runner with strength, some quickness and good hands. He's a very good athlete, likely an upgrade on Davenport and should also contribute on special teams. The advantage of having an extra pick shows up later in the third round. Butler should still be available. If not, three guys who enter the conversation are WR Jordy Nelson, FB Owen Schmidt and FB Peyton Hillis. Nelson is 6-3, 215, good hands and deceptive speed. Schmidt or Hillis would be great additions, but if the Steelers draft Forte, then it's a overkill in an area of limited need.
Rnd 4: Robinson is projected as a fifth-rounder and, if available, should be snapped up. His return numbers (18.9 PR avg!!!!; 29.3 KO avg; four combined kick returns for TDs this year) are so ridiculously good he could get picked anytime from the third round on. If Forte is not in the fold, then you can add third-down RB Justin Forsett to the conversation, and also think about athletic G Donald Thomas.
Rnd 5: DL has to be the priority if none picked to this point. Dykes is a big strong guy and versatile. If we already have a DL but no centre, then the best center available could be Velasco. The later fifth-round choices (SS Campbell and ILB Larsen) are for special teams, depth, and could be joined in the discussion by OL Chad Rhinehart and WR Marcus Monk.
Rnd 6: Same scenario as in the previous draft projection.

SUMMARY: Preferred choices in each round would add up to: OT Carl Nicks, C Mike Pollak, RB Matt Forte, OLB Ezra Butler, WR-KR Kevin Robinson, DL Kellen Dykes, SS Caleb Campbell, LB Thomas Williams.

CONCLUSION: Overall, there seems no doubt that the trade scenario is much better than the status quo. Of course, trades are not easy to make happen but it has been done before and there's no reason to think it can't happen again. It might even be worth lowering the asking price (for example, a 6th or 7th rounder instead of a 5th rounder), just to get those extra picks in the second and third rounds.

I found it tough to upgrade the DL in either of the draft scenarios. None of the guys projected in rounds 2-5 are sure things, a reflection of how tough it is to find quality 3-4 DEs. That's what makes Aaron Smith so valuable, and why Chris Long might go No. 1 overall. For the Steelers, with a limited number of guys to choose later in the draft, it might make sense to use the first pick on a top-end DL such as Kentwan Balmer, Philip Merling, Pat Sims or Calais Campbell, then address OL and LB in rounds 2-4.

Three of the key guys in both draft scenarios are C Mike Pollak, OLB Ezra Butler and WR-KR Kevin Robinson. They each address three key needs but Pollak is probably a reach, Butler has been described as a chronic under-achiever, and Robinson was great on a super bad team in a weak conference. There's no way to know when he will drafted or if he will be successful.