Pro-Rated Steelers Numbers at the Quarter-Pole

by maryrose on Oct 2, 2008 11:24 AM EDT

Bumped from the Fanposts section. A fun exercise while we tick down the hours to our pivotal game against perennial rival Jacksonville. -Blitz-

Indeed, the NFL changes every week and numbers will change every which way, but with one quarter in the books, we've played two home, two road, two heated rivals and a tough Philly team, so we do have a representative sample of the season. Of course, Steelers fans are hoping we get this offense funk figured out, but in any event, this will be how the math would look on New Year's day if the pro-rated numbers pan out:

Ben will have 2,552 yards, 16 TDs, 8 picks and a rating of 93.3

Hines will catch 68 passes for 904 yards and 12 TDs (tying his own record shared with Louis Lipps and Buddy Dial); Holmes will catch 52 for 824 and 4 TDS and Heath will catch 44 for 520 and 0 TDs.

Reed will be 28 for 28 in field goals, most of them from over 40.

Silverback will have 20 sacks (breaking Mike Merriweather's 15 in 1987) and 108 tackles; Woodley will have 14 sacks and 68 tackles.

Troy will pick off 12 passes, besting Mel Blount's 11 in 1975, and make 84 tackles, 8 of them for losses; B-Mac will pick off 8 passes and make 84 tackles, 4 of them for losses.

The Steelers will be sacked 64 times, shattering the team record of 52 occurring in 1969 and again in 1983.

The Steelers will sack their opponents 60 times, breaking their record of 55 in 1994 and 2001.

The Steelers will complete 28 passes to their running backs.

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spikey

I really can’t bet against him to miss at this point unless the playing conditions are a major factor like the Mud Bowl last year.

by Blitzburgh on Oct 2, 2008 11:42 AM EDT 0 recs

True

I saw on the MNF game that he has the 2nd highest kick percentage in the NFL history! Early on in his career, he was hitting in the low 70%s, and I thought that was fine because he had the best Heinz Field %age in the league. He has really turned into a great kicker.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Oct 2, 2008 12:32 PM EDT up 0 recs

yeah

remarkable really how much he’s improved. I used to be nervous as heck when he’d kick. Not at all now. Not even at 1 am in OT against the Ravens when I desperately want the game to be over with. Knew he’d deliver!

by Blitzburgh on Oct 2, 2008 12:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

Reed

is straight $$. That’s what I was saying to my co-workers who were watching the game with me. He’s just money.

by TheMostViolentTeam on Oct 2, 2008 12:47 PM EDT up 0 recs

It must be

that if you can kick well at Heinz, you can kick well anywhere. Most kickers in the league that I would have considered pretty good have had trouble at Heinz. What’d they say, that he had made 37 of his last 39, or something outrageous like that?

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Oct 2, 2008 2:01 PM EDT up 0 recs

I started to notice how clutch he was in 2005. Remember the Chargers game that Ben hyperextended his knee? We were down 1 or 2 and I had complete confidence that Ben would take us down the field and give us a shot. The FG was pretty long and would single-handedly determine the outcome of the game, but he went in with cold blood and nailed it. Without that kick, we wouldn’t have won the Super Bowl.

charity standing orders

by BadMaafala on Oct 2, 2008 12:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

good call

That may have been a good place to think of the turn around for him.

by Blitzburgh on Oct 2, 2008 12:55 PM EDT up 0 recs

I question 2nd highest

I think MNF said 5th. . .but still!

by The IC Lion on Oct 2, 2008 2:38 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yeah, I going from memory.

I thought it was 2nd. Well, Pro-Football-Reference.com shows him at 10th, so maybe they (MNF) were referring to a specific time period.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Oct 2, 2008 3:07 PM EDT up 0 recs

Interesting

That almost every single leader is a current player. All the older guys – even the greats – kicked at a much lower percentage. Looks like the game has changed .

by SteelerBuddha on Oct 2, 2008 6:32 PM EDT up 0 recs

Reed's last field goal was inside the post by the length of my dick

…….from 46 yards. Another couple of inches of hook and everyone would be asking for his head.

by robert ethan on Oct 2, 2008 5:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

easy...

Wow RE, you used to intersperse your hatred with some normal comments. Now it’s just hate, hate, hate. Cheer up buddy.

by Chicago Steeler on Oct 2, 2008 5:42 PM EDT up 0 recs

But look at the hype above...

…Reed is a middle of the pack kicker. They come and go.

by robert ethan on Oct 2, 2008 5:51 PM EDT up 0 recs

respectfully disagree

At this point I wouldn’t trade him for any other kicker in the league. He missed 2 kicks last year that no kicker could make. and so far this year he’s perfect. Add to that kicking in Heinz which is well-known as harder to kick in…. I’ll take spikey.

by Chicago Steeler on Oct 2, 2008 7:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

I wouldn't....

he’s been so money, and kickers can’t be 100%, if he had missed I would be talking about how the offense failed to get us in range better. Plus we still could have won if he had missed.

by TheMostViolentTeam on Oct 2, 2008 5:45 PM EDT up 0 recs

I doubt that

He hasn’t missed a makeable FG since 2006. We wouldn’t be singing his praises, but knowledgeable fans (e.g. most of the people here) wouldn’t be criticising him either. Besides, who’s to say he doesn’t get another shot at it and get the win? Good kickers make FG’s when it matters and Reed made it – twice.

I honestly don’t know who this “everyone” you keep mentioning is. We were disappointed that we couldn’t draft an OL, but no one was suggesting that we should have send 2 1’s, a 2 and a 3 for Long or Clady. Your comments suggest that everyone but yourself is a know-nothing Lemming. Do you want me to bring up your “Doug Legursky is better than Darnell Stapleton” arguments again? Well, one is starting now, and the other just made it back to the practice squad. You don’t know anything more than anyone else on this board.

charity standing orders

by BadMaafala on Oct 2, 2008 5:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

haha

That’s a fun post. Good to know Harrison will have a place near the single season sack record. Woodley’s also on pace for 4 interceptions, 8 fumble recoveries, and 4 TD’s. With our offense, it’s good to know we count on that kind of production.

On offense, Ben’s on pace for 4 receptions for -28 yards and 26 rushes for 104 yards with no receiving or rushing TD’s. Personally, I’d like to see him get more involved out of the backfield.

charity standing orders

by BadMaafala on Oct 2, 2008 11:53 AM EDT 0 recs

hehe

Well, Harrison could get 15 or 16 sacks which would still be pretty outrageous. And hey, we do still have the Ravens once, the Browns once, and the Bungles twice. 20 aint out of the question.

by Blitzburgh on Oct 2, 2008 11:55 AM EDT 0 recs

Ben

I love Been and I know he’s had some tough matchups for the first four weeks but he’ll have to improve if he wants to be mentioned in the same breathe as the top QBs in this league. 16 TDs and 8 INTs is nothing to brag about.

Revenge of the Birds

by cgolden on Oct 2, 2008 12:54 PM EDT 0 recs

2 INTs

THe pick Monday was a joke. He was trying to pullback on his throwing motion and ball slipped. Think about this guys. For all the pressure Ben’s been taking, he has done a GREAT job protecting the football. Lots of quarterbacks throw ducks up there for grabs under pressure time and again and Ben’s resisted that temptation.

by Blitzburgh on Oct 2, 2008 12:57 PM EDT 0 recs

yeah

his decision making as WAAAAY better than a few years ago. Really, you had the accidental pass against Balt and the heave ho on the only play he had time against Philly, where Washington didn’t make a good play on the ball. He has had a much lower number of close call passes this year, if you ask me.

charity standing orders

by BadMaafala on Oct 2, 2008 1:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

Only problem

Is not throwing it away. There are time when he’s still holding on waaayyy to long. I’m glad he doesn’t throw into traffic often to just make a play, but would like him to just chuck it sometimes when the blitz is too heavy.

by Chicago Steeler on Oct 2, 2008 1:59 PM EDT up 0 recs

When the blitz is too heavy he is often sacked before leaving the pocket. I’d like to see him chuck it sometimes too, but I think he has gotten MUCH better at that this year.

If I see a few more dumpoffs when a blitzer runs through untouched next game I’ll be a happy man.

by steelguy99 on Oct 2, 2008 2:20 PM EDT up 0 recs

Stats

I’m not saying that Ben falls into this category but sometimes QBs are reluctant to throw a ball away cuz it affects his stats and passer rating. Thus it may affect any incentives that are in the contract. Ben, imo, is too much of a winner to care about stats (I hope) but he does seem to go for the homerun ball too often. But the good news is that if he is concerned about his stats, that makes him more inclined to throw high percentage passes and less INTs.

by woody71 on Oct 2, 2008 3:16 PM EDT up 0 recs

His throw to santonio for the touchdown was pure money. I didn’t realize what a tight space he had beneath the defender until the replay. Overall has made very few dumb decisions.

by steelguy99 on Oct 2, 2008 2:18 PM EDT up 0 recs

Ben's best play of the season. . .

had to be on 3rd down in OT when he checked out to MM with 3 Ravens bearing down on him. Think skippy’s still perfect if he doesn’t do that to gain 4 or 5 yds? Yes he’s held on to the ball too long in the past, but I don’t think he is this year. I think the rush is getting too him much faster. What he needs to improve on are those quick reads and check downs, something where he has to miss Willie a lot.

by The IC Lion on Oct 2, 2008 2:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

I agree
It seems that when Ben looks to get rid of it quickly his receivers aren’t looking back. I think it’s more of a lack of communication than anything else. And that throw to MM to gain 7 yards and give Skippy an easier field goal was pretty amazing.

by Cols714 on Oct 2, 2008 3:59 PM EDT up 0 recs

what was that stat they flashed during the balt game?

Ben has something like an 81% passer rating when contacted by the defense? That’s gotta lead the league…

by SteelersVT on Oct 2, 2008 2:53 PM EDT up 0 recs

Practice makes perfect.

by steelguy99 on Oct 2, 2008 3:06 PM EDT up 0 recs

Merriweather's

15 sack record WILL be broken this year, by either Woodley or Harrison. Ok maybe that’s a little optimistic, but I think both will end up right in that neighborhood.

by TheMostViolentTeam on Oct 2, 2008 3:04 PM EDT 0 recs

I think it might be a bit optimistic. I was curious enough to look into how the teams we played against fared against other teams when it comes to sacks allowed. (stats from nfl.com) This also lets us extrapolate a bit since we are talking about future potential projections.

Schaub – 8 allowed in 3 games (3 in 2 games without the steelers)
Anderson – 8 allowed in 4 games (6 in 3 games w/o steelers)
McNabb – 10 allowed in 4 games (7 in 4 games w/o steelers)
Flacco – 6 allowed in 3 games. (1 in 2 games w/o steelers)

Schaub was sacked 5 times by the steelers, anderson sacked 2 times, Mcnabb 3 times, Flacco 5 times.

Against the browns the steelers contributed the average (2) to their total sacks allowed.
Playing non-steelers, the texans averaged 1.5 sacks a game, we sacked for more than 3 times that.
Playing non-steelers, the eagles averaged 1.75 sacks a game, we sacked for almost twice that.
Playing non-steelers, baltimore averaged .5 sacks a game, we sacked for 10 times that.

The sample size is incredibly small for most of these, but I think you could conservatively say that our defense gets twice as many sacks than the NFL average.

The league average for sacks allowed is somewhere around 2.5 sacks a game, but amongst the teams we are playing for the rest of the year it is more like 2. If we can be expected to reliably get twice that, 4 sacks a game, then there are 48 sacks waiting to be had, and 3/4 of them will probably be split between woodley/harrison. That’d be 36 sacks between two players.

Keep up the pace boys.

by steelguy99 on Oct 2, 2008 3:30 PM EDT up 0 recs

Thanks for the numbers

I think Football Outsiders has a position open…

It’s good to see us dominating our competetion more than other teams, not just beating up bad teams. I don’t see any reason why we’d slow down. I guess you can mark us down for 5 sacks against the Jags.

charity standing orders

by BadMaafala on Oct 2, 2008 3:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

That’s saying something. The are playing tremendous ball so far this season, and they’ve only really just begun.

They keep this up and the Steelers should make the playoffs, and pose a serious matchup problem there on out.

by herewegosteelers on Oct 2, 2008 4:26 PM EDT up 0 recs

I liked it better when they took the first game stats...

…and mulitiplied them by 16. ;)

by robert ethan on Oct 2, 2008 5:33 PM EDT 0 recs

It’s really too bad no one here realizes that these future-projection stats are just for fun except you.

by steelguy99 on Oct 2, 2008 6:10 PM EDT up 0 recs

hey

I tihnk RE was actually being lighthearted there :)

by Blitzburgh on Oct 2, 2008 9:15 PM EDT up 0 recs

The emoticon was telling, but I’m taking him for what he meant to say, which is we’re all wrong and he’s right. :)

by steelguy99 on Oct 2, 2008 11:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

Wow

At least the math showed the good statistics and the bad. I like Ben’s yardage prediction, but I think he’ll be closer to 22 or 23 TD’s. The offense will turn it around. The first month is always the toughest.

Rondogg
www.nflfanswhocare.com

by rondogg on Oct 2, 2008 11:19 PM EDT 0 recs