Q&A with Pats Pulpit

It’s impossible for any fan to give an honest non-homerist prediction…

3 weeks ago, I would’ve said we’re toast by 2-3 TDs. Cassel was struggling in the pocket and hadn’t developed a long ball with Moss. Things changed with the Jets and this past Sunday’s matchup with Miami. We beat Miami with a strong aerial performance, but our defense still allowed 28 points. It’ll be tough for us to put yardage on Pitt’s D given their #1 with 235.4 yards per game. However, the Pats O is #7 vs. #26 for Pitt. I see a strong Pats’ O against a strong Pitt D and a weak Pats D against a weak Pitt O. +/-7…this’ll be a close one.

Moss and Welker were blanketed by the Jets, so Cassel went to the single covered duo of Jabar Gaffney and Ben Watson who had good days. Even swarmed, Welker had 108 yards. Miami mistakenly assumed Moss was not a factor and single covered him. That combined with Cassel’s increased comfort level was a mistake by Sparano. Randy tore up the field.

Moss gets a cushion to, as you suggest, protect against the deep ball. However, Moss has developed some skills inside (which scare the daylights out of me; and LB is going to crush that lanky dude) which sometimes has success at throwing D’s off balance. Welker gets bumped early because he’s the underneath guy, the chain mover, and will rely on his quickness with jukes and jives to overcome being knocked off of his routes.

A good man-to-man corner that gets in Moss’s grill can set him off his game. Ty Law actually managed to do a pretty good job of that in the Jets game until the last play of regulation. In any case, the key is “rolling” a safety over the top. If you single him, Cassel finally sees it and they’ll burn you.

If I had to make a prediction, I think you’ll see about 60% spread or quasi-spread formations to get the DB’s overextended, with our running game being largely cross-bucks, draws and dives.

NE is 7th in offensive yards per game. Given Pitt has the #1 D, I think Belichick will spread the field with 3-4 WRs. D’s usually key on Moss and Welker for obvious reasons (most dangerous Pats WRs, IMO), so Jabar Gaffney and Ben Watson will probably be Cassel’s first read. I see a 200-250 yard game in the air and a 50-100 yard game on ground.

Lets throw in anthony smith too just for shits and giggles.

Brady’s condition and rehab has been as secret as the US missle launch codes – nothing from Foxboro, MA. My thoughts? Brady may not be ready for 2009 given 3 post operation procedures to fix infections. I think, best case, he’s in the mix 4-8 games into the season. That being said, there’s a pretty high probability Cassel will be franchised.

I’ve never seen the Patriots as a great sack team. Opportunistic is more the way I see it which leads me to believe 70% of the sacks are coverage sacks; it’s just not a “core competency” as we say in the biz world. DE Richard Seymour is our sack leader with 7, so I think the front 3 (Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, Richard Seymour) will generate most of the pressure with the 4 LBs coming up to plug the gaps and/or hang back for underneath routes. This is a real switch from years past where OLB Mike Vrabel was the pressure man.

That being said, I believe the Pats front 3 is one of the best in football and will have a good day against Pitt’s O line

We just got our starting O line healthy and back in the mix. It’d be a bummer for us if Light was suspended.

No suspension…this week.

The line has improved: we had a lot of replacements in early in the season; we’ve had the original starters back for only about 3 games.

At the same time, Cassel has gotten better every week—both at moving in the pocket and at getting a release.

Those two factors have helped him to find more deep routes, which opens up the short stuff more. So it’s kind of all three.

Would you say that you’ve got above average pass protection (including the QB’s, WR’s, and OC’s roles in that) at this point? Do you think you can keep the pressure at a reasonable level?

I’m gonna go with Rodney Harrison. He’s a smart player and he hits hard. You’d often see him up in the box when he noticed something wasn’t going deep. But, his biggest asset was as an on-the-field coach for the DBs. He routinely moves guys around when a scheme is noticed.

I’d like to say a stellar O line, but we had at least 2 starters out for the first 6 or 7 games. I hate to admit it, but I think opposing run Ds were not that solid. The best D we faced was Indy. We were able to run all over them, but Dungy had made a conscious choice to allow that and shut down Welker and Moss – it worked.

A positive of all this is our RBs were so banged up (Laurence Maroney IR’d, Sammy Morris missed 3 or 4 games, power back LaMont Jordan is on his 5th or 6th missed game) we reached into the practice squad for BenJarvus Green-Ellis and he’s been doing a fine job along with fan favorite Kevin Faulk. Morris was back last week and is still getting his legs under him.

That being said, the Stillers have one of the strongest run Ds in the biz and I don’t think that’s lost on Hoodie. Cassel’s just come off of a few good games in the air, so I predict they come out throwing to test the waters.