Well since I have time and am quite bored, I'm going to preview the game against the New Cassel Patriots.

The Pit vs Pat rivalry has been pretty much close to one sided in recent memory. The pats thumped the Burgh in the playoffs twice early in the decade, and spanked them last year on their way to 18-1.

However this year, the pats have proven to be beatable. Lets look at some of their struggles:

4 losses. To the following teams:

1st, At home against Miami.

2nd, At San Diego

3rd, At Indianapolis

4th, Home against NYJ

But what made these 4 games losses?

*Yard per carry, Sacks allowed, and Red zone efficiency are noted*

Against Miami: 4.1 YPC, 5 SA, 1 INT, 2 FGs, 1 TD. 1/3 RZ

Against Chargers: 4.07 YPC, 4 SA, 1 INT, 1/3 RZ

Against the Colts: 4.06 YPC, 0 SA, 1 INT. 1/4 RZ

Against Jets: 5 YPC (1/2 of this is Cassel), 3 SA, 0 INT, 3/4 RZ

Take away the Jets game, because that was just wild and crazy, and lets look at the other 3.

What our defense needs to do

The number that stands out is the Red Zone efficiency. In those 3 first losses, we have a sad 3/10 score in red zone efficiency. The Pats have had issues closing out those last 20 yards.

Good news for us, because we lead the league in red zone stops. People are kicking short field goals like extra points.

What about Sacks? Sacks in these 3 losses dont seem to be the x-factor. After all, Indy never sacked Cassel yet they lost.

A common thread is there has been no BIG PLAY for the pats offense in all 4 losses. In fact, the longest play was 29 yards by Wes Welker in the Jets game.

Again, we excel at avoiding the big play, our defense doesnt allow them ever.

So following this common thread, what we can see is this:

If we lock up the redzone, and keep the deep ball out of it, we will win this game. Sacks never hurt, as we can see the games where Cassel WAS sacked were pretty much blowouts (Miami by 28, Chargers by 20). The Colts game was very close.

We can win this game by a substantial margin if we apply pressure and keep them kicking field goals.

On Offense

Due to request I decided to examine some of our offenses prospects.

The pats defense ranks a decent 12th. Again, when we consider that they havent handled too many major offenses I am skeptical. The best win was a crushing beatdown of Denver, who has a up and down team. Their last two games had opponents scoring 34 and 28. Pretty high counts for NYJ and MIA.

NE has been allowing other teams to convert 45% of their 3rd downs. Pittsburgh is allowing 37%. 

This can bode well. Because NE gives up on average 7.8 yards per pass, and 3.9 per run. Both are solid numbers, but they are pretty easily workable. Without FWP however we may have a tough time on the run. If we start with a solid 2-3 yard gain, we can easily land a pass to get the first.

NE has  been doing great at keeping teams from getting first downs on the ground. Theyve only allowed 46, compared to 131 through the pass.

That in mind, I dont see us running all over this team. We should try to stretch them to the outside with Waltzing Mewelde though. This will loosen them up for hard inside running by Gary Russell.

The real goal though is to create catch and run plays by our receivers. I expect a lot of short hits to Santonio Holmes. He can be our Wes Welker for the day. Him and Hines ward will get the tough first downs that we need.

Probably the most crucial thing is keeping it interesting, if we get predictable we get pickable. Ben has to find the hot read fast, and has to respond quickly to the changes in the pocket.  I think Maxamillion Starks will handle Richard Seymour successfully.

My Concern comes from the LG area. If NE runs Mayo and Bruschi on stunts and try to play Kemo-Therapy while Hartwig is up the middle dealing with Wilfork, we could have trouble.

Ben will then have to flush out where Vrabel could be awaiting. This could prove bad. Hopefully the interior of the pocket holds up well.

Speaking of Vrabel, I dont like him against Willie (Drive Stopper) Colon. Willie has to play clean first of all, keep on the LOS and not hold. But Vrabel can make plays and Colon cannot.

I think however we allow 4 or less sacks. They only have 21. I figure 3. Provided we keep it to that, we can keep at least 1/2 our drives going into scoring range.

I predict 3 TDs and 2 field goals. I am thinking a RB will receive a TD pass in the redzone, an area the Pats have failed at defending. Another play will have another RB running for the score. Probably G-Russell. And the Last TD COULD be a Polamalu INT but I wont say for sure.

My prediction is 27-13.