As others have pointed out, the easiest way for us to win the division is to win the Ravens game. This will give us a two-game lead plus we win the head-to-head tiebreaker. Thus, we could lose two of our other games and still win the division. In fact, unless the Ravens win all their other games (including vs. Redskins and at Cowboys), we can lose to the Patriots, Cowboys, and Titans as long as we beat the Ravens.

I've determined that even if we lose the Ravens game, however, we will still hold the tiebreaker over the Ravens (as long as we beat the Browns). Therefore, we can lose to the Ravens, lose one other game, and still win the division unless the Ravens win all their remaining games. Of course, our record has to be at least as good as the Ravens' record, but the tiebreaker advantage gives us multiple scenarios.

Here are the details: if both teams win out, except for the Ravens beating the Steelers, we win the conference record tiebreaker. If both teams lose one other game, the tiebreakers get complicated, but losing to the Patriots actually gives us a advantage over the Ravens on the "common opponents" tiebreaker. If we beat the Patriots but lose to Dallas, we win a tiebreaker on conference record. If we beat both but lose to the Titans, it would come down to "strength of victory", and our wins over San Diego and New England (in this scenario) should trump the Ravens wins over Oakland and Miami.

Bottom line: If we split our next four games and beat the Browns, the only way we don't win the division is if the Ravens go undefeated for the rest of the season, which seems unlikely given their difficult schedule.