Defer?

by steelguy99 on Dec 1, 2008 3:21 PM EST Comment 30 comments

I've seen people arguing to defer around here. While that seemed like a good idea this past game, I've thought of two good arguments for not deferring.

Offense, 1st half 1st drive - I can't find the exact number, but I believe the offense has scored on the first drive in something like 9/12 games. That is very good. BA seems to be very good at scripting opening drives against defenses.

Offense, 2nd half 1st drive - BA suffers down the stretch and has not typically responded very well during halftime. Meanwhile the other teams make what are called "adjustments". Waiting to open the 2nd half puts our offense at a disadvantage against teams that have hired what we call "coordinators."

Defense, 1st half 1st drive - Our defense is great, but they do sometimes seem to start the game off a bit sluggish. If our offense fails on the 1st drive it is expected, but if our defense fails on the 1st drive it can be devastating (if our team wasn't resilient as hell).

Defense 2nd half 1st drive - 9 points. That's the total allowed in the 3rd quarter. You want the D on the field to start the 2nd half to fire it up.

I think a great thing about this team is that they can respond to getting the ball 1st or not getting it. There are advantages either way. I think that taking the ball 1st is a completely legitimate approach, if not even the better one.

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I agree completely

No long argument from me on this one.

"Damnit mom! You almost ran over Greg Lloyd!"

at an autograph signing back in 95. He walked out in front of our minivan, and my mom almost hit him. He apologized.

by PA ARMY OFFICER on Dec 1, 2008 3:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It seems to me

when we win the toss, we DO defer at home. On the road, (at least this road game), we elect to receive. Maybe it has something to do with crowd noise level at very beginning of game in Hienz Field. I don’t know.Thoughts? Cananyone recall whaty we did other road games when we won toss??

by Jonny B. on Dec 1, 2008 3:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Meh, Defer is just the right thing to do

Bottom line, you want to be able to control the situation. When the game is tied 0-0 to start, there is nothing to control.

If you have the #1 defense, you ABSOLUTELY defer every stinking time. Even in OT.

Again, when you give the other team the ball to start the second half, they have an idea of what they want to do. Down by ten? They have a plan. Up by 10, they want to run it out.

So as an offense, you want to have a clear direction and getting the ball in the second half either allows you to steal momentum if you are losing, or pour it on if you are up. Or if its tied, a chance to take over.

Never take the ball first unless your D is like a Lions defense.

by Mechem on Dec 1, 2008 4:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Even in overtime?

UMMM no.

by Jonny B. on Dec 1, 2008 4:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Overtime

Yes in overtime. Depending on circumstances maybe i wouldnt, but probably 4/5 times I would.

For one simple reason. Suppose your a team like pittsburgh who has a stellar defense and a rather lackluster KR game.

You receive and get the ball between the 20-30. You need a good chunk of yardage, at a time when the defense is fired up and looking for the stop.

Now on the other end of things, YOU KICK. Why? Well again lets say we keep them to the 20-30, what if you then were to make them go 3 and out. Now the ball is punted, you likely get the ball between the 30-40, and a chance for a small return.

You now need just about 30 some odd yards to close it out.

When you have a defense that can force the 3 and out like ours can, or better yet a pick or sack, it gives you extra field position. This then allows you to relax, and run the ball in close for the kill.

by Mechem on Dec 1, 2008 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You had better

have the job security of a Jeff Fisher or Tony Dungy if you are the head coach and defer in overtime and lose on first possession. Our “D” is second to none, but they don’t ALWAYS hold opponents to 3 and outs. One or two first downs and they pin us inside 20 no problem.

by Jonny B. on Dec 1, 2008 5:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Never

defer in OT. Team that gets the ball first wins about 75% of the time.

When You Run The Ball Good Things Happen

by 5020 on Dec 1, 2008 5:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not quite that much

more like 2/3 of the time. But, more importantly, the team that wins the toss wins about 25 percent of the time without the opposing team ever getting the ball.

by Jonny B. on Dec 1, 2008 5:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry, I like my points more than yours.

by steelguy99 on Dec 1, 2008 4:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Alternative answer.

There’s at least one person in the Steelers organization checking the weather report. If the weather is expected to be better after halftime than at the start of the game, you defer. If not, you don’t.

Do you really believe they haven’t thought of something that simple?

by HinesField on Dec 1, 2008 5:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think that the importance of offense/defense vs. their offense/defense outweigh the weather changes in 95% of the games played. 1.5 hours is usually not enough to swing the weather favorably or unfavorably in a 3 hour window, not enough to outweigh the other considerations.

by steelguy99 on Dec 1, 2008 5:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Plus we relish bad weather

Lets just enjoy the bad weather and consider it a blessing. Because as far as I know we are pretty much undefeated this year in terrible storms. See cleveland, Chargers, Bengals, Pats, and even last years dolphins.

Anyway, I would NEVER defer in OT if I didnt trust my defense. And thats where I feel our team is well suited to that choice.

Obviously if its a shootout, of course you accept the ball from the start.

by Mechem on Dec 1, 2008 6:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Defer

interesting points made in this post…but for me

I would always choose to defer. I really like our D out first and getting the ball to start the second half. (even with the compelling points above)

Never defer in OT…even with our D.

by SteelerMike on Dec 1, 2008 9:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm wondering if

anyone ever deferred in overtime either in the nfl or college (with old rules)? I tried o research it but couldn’t find much.

by Jonny B. on Dec 1, 2008 9:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Probably, I suspect, because no one EVER has.

by Jonny B. on Dec 1, 2008 9:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i bet someone has

Barry Bonds has been walked with the bases loaded. That defies logic too on some level.

by Blitzburgh on Dec 1, 2008 11:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually someone has

I can’t tell you when but I remember that Detroit did it once a while back.

by archon095 on Dec 1, 2008 11:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

On second thought,

You are probably right. Somebody probably has somewhere along the line. Would like to know what they were thinking though. Was their offense THAT bad and defense THAT good or what?

by Jonny B. on Dec 1, 2008 11:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Found it!

It has accured 10 times in nfl according to this article, mostly the decision to kickoff was related to wind conditions. The coach opted to be with wind rather than have ball first. This kinda makes sense, There ARE some good coaches on this list.
http://quirkyresearch.blogspot.com/2006/07/nfl-games-in-which-winner-of-coin-toss.html

by Jonny B. on Dec 2, 2008 12:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ahh

Yeah, duh.

Makes sense. Would rather be on D if there were huge head winds.

by Blitzburgh on Dec 2, 2008 12:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

You would want to be with wind on O, since most OT games are decided by a FG, In some conditions A FG is next to impossible facing the wrong way.

by Jonny B. on Dec 2, 2008 12:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

nice diggin btw for that factoid :)

by Blitzburgh on Dec 2, 2008 12:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ty

But the credit actually goes to Archon095 as he correctly remembered the last time it was done by the Detroit Lions. Once I had that, the rest was easy. And now I can rest easy. lol.

by Jonny B. on Dec 2, 2008 1:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I like the url “quirkyresearch”. That’s all we do on this site, it’s great.

by steelguy99 on Dec 2, 2008 8:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well well well

Seems Mike Ditka beat our very own Pittsburgh steelers by defering in OT.

The overall was 5/10 for winning. BUT whats interesting is that in MANY of these cases, the team that elected to kick the ball got it back even when they lost.

For instance on team had their FG blocked, another had a pitch intercepted by LT. In all likelyhood this could have a 7-8/10 success rate.

by Mechem on Dec 2, 2008 11:48 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ditka

I know. For the life of me, I was trying to remember that game, but I couldn’t. Maybe one of the few one I missed s over the years.
Two interesting notes reading that just now. One, Mike Tomczak was QB for Chicago, and two weather must have been pretty crappy on that day. Look right below. It happened in another game on that same exact date!

by Jonny B. on Dec 2, 2008 12:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

BTW, you can't "defer" in overtime

The “defer” choice was added to the beginning of the game this year. It means that you defer (delay) your choice until the second half, letting the other team choose first at the start the game. As a practical matter, most teams choose to receive, but the point is that they have the choice.

In overtime, the team that wins the toss can choose to receive or they can choose which direction to go. They cannot “defer” their decision to the next half because there is no next half. I believe what you are referring to is choosing the direction rather than choosing to receive.

(Technically, you can choose to kick, but that is really stupid. There is an apocryphal story about a team that wins the coin toss, and the captain says “we’ll kick with the wind.” The referee determines that the first word he said was “kick”, so the choice is to kick. The other team quickly chooses to go with the wind, so they get the ball and the wind.)

by Steelin on Dec 2, 2008 12:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs