Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens - 5 Keys and Prediction Open Thread
by Blitzburgh on Dec 13, 2008 1:11 PM EST
34 comments
Ok, we're getting close to the AFC North showdown between the first place Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) and the surging Baltimore Ravens (9-4). Scroll through the main page posts or the numerous fanposts on the sidebar for pertinent information and opinions on the huge game earlier in the week. My keys to the game:
1) James Harrison must leave his impact on this game. In two of the three losses for Pittsburgh this year (@ Philadelphia, vs. New York Giants), Harrison has been held without a sack. In the Indinapolis game, he had just one sack. In addition to those two contests, Harrison has only two other contest without a sack - Cincinnati and Cleveland. In the first Baltimore game, Harrison had 2.5 sacks and forced a fumble. It wasn't just any old forced fumble either. It was scooped up by LaMarr Woodley and returned for a TD.
2) 3rd Down Efficiency - In the first meeting, Pittsburgh converted just 5-15 (33%) on 3rd down compared to Baltimore's 7-17 (41%). For the year, Pittsburgh is converting on 39% of it's 3rd downs, whereas Baltimore is currently converting 42.3%. The 33% would be good for 5th worst in the NFL over the course of the season, so Pittsburgh will have to improve in this department if they're going to score enough points to get past Baltimore on the road this time. The defense has been spectacular and may even contribute points again like it did in the first meeting, but it shouldn't be counted on. The offense must offer more this time around if we're going to retain sole possession of 1st place in the AFC North.
3) Special Teams - It's been a common theme around BTSC this year, but we again must continue to play well in this facet of the game. The Steelers continue to get very little out of the kick return game, but against Dallas, Santonio Holmes finally made an impact play in the punt return game. I'm not sure we win the game without that 35 yard return. If we do fail to convert in the red zone, which wouldn't at all be surprising given how we've fared down there for most of the year, Jeff Reed must not have a shaky game like he did against Dallas, where he missed a FG attempt and booted a kickoff out of bounds.
4) Protect the ball Big Ben! - In 7 career games against the Ravens, Ben Roethlisberger is 4-3. In the four victories, he has thrown 10 TDs to only 3 INTs, with no game featuring more than 1 INT. In the 3 career losses, Roethlisberger has thrown 2 picks per game, with only one contest (his first in the NFL) featuring 2 TDs. We don't need a 5 TD, perfect QB rating performance, which Ben of course turned in during the 75th Anniversary Night at Heinz Field last year against the Ravens, but we can't have him turning the ball over, and certainly not multiple times.
5) Score First - Even if it's just 3 points, it'd be huge if we got on the scoreboard first. There's a lot of reasons for this other than it just obviously being preferrable to get an early lead, but get a load of this stat: Since 2001, the winning team in this rivalry has scored first every time.
I'm not quite ready to make my prediction in this one, so I'll open it up to both Steelers and Ravens fans to hear what your keys are and what you think the final outcome will be when the final second ticks off the clock tomorrow evening in Baltimore.
GO STEELERS!
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here's what i like
about this match up.
In his past two starts against Baltimore, Roethlisberger has completed 67.5 percent of his passes for 400 yards, six touchdowns, one interception and a 129.2 passer rating. He also won both games.
by SE7ENS on Dec 13, 2008 1:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
true
but he got 5 of those TDs and a perfect rating in one of them.
by Blitzburgh on Dec 13, 2008 1:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What a horribly mangled statistic.
In the game the only game that matters, this years, Roethlisberger’s line was 14 for 24/191 YDS/1 TD/1 INT/58.3% CMP/80.4 QB RAT.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
by Baltimo on Dec 13, 2008 6:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My biggest worry
The running game… every time we have lost this season, our running game has struggled. If we arent succesfull running the ball tomorrow we will force Big Ben to try to make plays, possibly resulting in picks. Lets just hope our willie/moore duo can do its job against this tough D. I like the steelers in a low scoring, tough, grind-it-out game… I say 13-10
by steelersfan86 on Dec 13, 2008 2:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
3rd Down Keys
To me there are 2 keys in being competitive on 3rd down;
1) BA must avoid the 7 step drop and pass on 1st down keeping us out of 2nd and 17. Too many times this year we have lost big on first down destroying any potential drive we may have had.
2) Ben must get rid of the ball quick and stagger the snap count and cadence to avoid Baltimore pinning their ears back and throwing 7 for a loss and making those 3rd downs harder to convert.
When You Run The Ball Good Things Happen
by 5020 on Dec 13, 2008 2:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ravens
Have the best defense in the NFL on third down and they are even better at home. This could decide the game in the Ravens’ favor because third down percentage can determine field position.
The Baltimore Beatdown has some of the defensive home stats for the Ravens. They are impressive, bu the Ravens have only played one top 15 offense in YPG at home and have played three of the bottom five teams. Still, impressive.
by CarlWeathersMustache on Dec 13, 2008 3:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
13 - 10 Steelers
Both touchdowns come from turnovers.
by PaulMorel on Dec 13, 2008 2:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I agree
that Ben is key. He needs to avoid turnovers and get rid of the ball. The Ravens have a great defense and are at home. When making predictions at the beginning of the season I usually put this game in the lost column, but I do think we have a great chance to win this one. Flacco has looked very good, but the running game should be slowed down with McGahee not playing well and Rice probably out. I think Mason, who hurt us in the home game, is a key player to stop here. It’s easy to see a defensive battle and turnovers will be key. Do no harm Ben! The D should get us into good field position at some point. We don’t need to force things.
"It's time to plant some seeds. What that means is, hit them in the mouth. Ya know, plant some seeds. Show 'em what time it is." --Levon Kirkland
by steelerinchicago on Dec 13, 2008 2:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
i don’t know about keys to the game, but i would like to see us impose our will. i would like to see the steelers win the physical matchups at the point of attack. i would like to see disciplined and impassioned play from the O-line, rewarded by some 5 and 6 yard runs that BA uses to his advantage. i know that this is probably a pipe dream against this defense, but its just what i would like to see. now is the time for this o-line to make a statement.
prediction? steelers win, 24-10.
...die trying
http://www.agentorangerecords.blogspot.com
by agentorange on Dec 13, 2008 2:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Score first = win!?
Didn’t know that stat! What a great thing to sit and watch the first team score and then call it a game!
Can’t see the Steelers scoring 24 points as one of you predictions above stated. At the same time, I see it more than a 13-10 or single digit game, as the defenses for both teams could set up scores to get the point totals up, although the offenses will probably bog down in the Red Zones.
I’ll predict the game on my site tomorrow morning, but if you want a taste, I’m looking at 20-13. Want to know who wins? Come to BaltimoreBeatdown on Sunday!
Rexx
by Rexx on Dec 13, 2008 3:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
You're right
Scoring first is overrated in the NFL. Only in a game like this does it really matter. Where there conceivably could be 3 total scores in a game (10-3, 10-7, 7-6 are not unreasonable predictions) the first score could have 1/3 of the scoring drives. In a 50 point game, who the hell cares who scores first.
by CarlWeathersMustache on Dec 13, 2008 3:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm saying 9-17 Steelers win it.
another late drive in the 2nd half from a “just enough” offense will do the trick. Our defense will hold just fine as long as someone tells deebo he’s in Maryland. He don’t like Maryland much at all ;]
by SoCalSteelerFan on Dec 13, 2008 5:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
nice
was in Venice Thursday night at a bar. Down south a bit in Newport here
by Blitzburgh on Dec 13, 2008 8:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Rhythm
is huge and I like it when Ben takes them no huddle. So often he runs the play clock down to one or two seconds coming out of the huddle, certainly not doing the line any favors. I think if BB can dictate pace and let be adaptive we have an excellent chance to put together some drives and utilize the talent.
And we’re getting football weather in SoCal, which I interpret as an omen.
by thedonger on Dec 13, 2008 7:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
yea
it’s getting all glooomy and cold and windy here in So Cal where Im at.
by Blitzburgh on Dec 13, 2008 7:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would like to see some no huddle early in the contest.
I’m going 17-13 Steelers.
by ZnJersey on Dec 13, 2008 9:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Offensive consitancy
The offense MUST take what the Raven D gives them. If they have dink and dunk…so be it. If they wind up being able to run…do that…..if somehow they are able to take the air and go deep…do that.
Just take what they give you.
The D is awesome, if they can ball control for 32+ minutes, score 14 points in this game, the Steelers will win. But they must be consistent in whatever realm of offense that is working in order to win.
Toss in a well timed gadget play once in the game…and that could break the Ravens.
Unfortunately this has been the missing link all year.
Final score prediction——- Steelers 17, Ravens 10.
by Ragnar808 on Dec 13, 2008 10:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Score change...
I think it’ll be 16-10 Steelers.
FG’s win the day!
by Ragnar808 on Dec 13, 2008 11:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Biggest Key
First of all, NO TURNOVERS. I’d rather take 10 sacks than 9 sacks and a pick.
But to me, the biggest thing, we need to stop the Ravens run and force flacco to throw a lot. Game will be sealed.
Bottom line is, the more chances flacco has to get to know our crazy pass rush and our ballistic secondary, the more chances he has of getting picked off. 20 throws and they win. 30 and they lose.
30 is the number we need him to get to.
by Mechem on Dec 13, 2008 11:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
no turnovers
If the Steelers don’t turn the ball over, they win. If they turn the ball over a couple of times giving Flacco a short field, or leaving points on the board, they might not win this game.
In 3 losses this year: 10 turnovers
In 10 wins this year: 8 turnovers
Do the math: turnover free O=Steelers W
WE DEY!!!!!
by jr3131 on Dec 14, 2008 12:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Prediction
I wouldn’t be surprised if neither team scored a TD…I predict Steelers 12 – Ravens 9. Stover misses a FG while Reed makes all 4 attempts.
by 5goldenrings on Dec 14, 2008 12:15 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Why not?
A repeat of what we did to them last year at Heinz???
I can see it now, the most hyped up game of the year, so many stakes on the line and……………………..35-0 Pit At the Half. LOl that would be lovely.
by Bleed-Black&Gold on Dec 14, 2008 1:26 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Steelers
In another miracle comeback. 20 – 10. Tied 10 – 10 heading into the 4th.
by Fahey on Dec 14, 2008 2:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ravens 20-13
Check it out over at Baltimore Beatdown!
Rexx
by Rexx on Dec 14, 2008 10:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Hi five to that
And seed #2. Heck, we got a shot at seed 1 the way Tennessee is playing ATM
by Mechem on Dec 14, 2008 3:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You deserve what you've earned
We can complain on that TD all we want but you still drove the ball down the field for 90 yards in the last minutes against our defense. Thus you are once again the better team, but we played you real tough for the second time this season, losing twice by a grand total of seven points. We might meet again in Pittsburgh in the second round of the playoffs.
Rexx
by Rexx on Dec 14, 2008 9:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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