#2 vs. #1

by Bleed-Black&Gold on Dec 15, 2008 12:25 AM EST Comment 41 comments

This is my first post so sorry if it is not very 'authentic' but I am in a little bit of hurry as I would like some sleep tonight but I can't stop rejoicing on today's win. But a question still remains in my head.

Which one is better? #1 or #2 seed?

If you look at past statistics, the #1 seed in the AFC rarely wins the SB if they even GET there. Only twice since 1990 has the top seeds won the superbowl. 1998 Broncos and 2003 patiots. Since then only 7/18 of the top seeds gotten past the 1st game, the divisional round.

We all know that the Steelers recently have never reached the Superbowl holding the #1 seed failing numerous times in our own backyard, no need to visualize those horrifying years.

BUT this has been a year of ending streaks AND we are in a new era, the Mike Tomlin era.

SO do we want the #1 seed and take the challenge of winning it all with a bullseye on our back, OR try to get the #2 seed and take care of business without worrying about history against us?

What do YOU think?

(of course i am not insuating that we should try to lose to Tennessee next week, just seeing what you guys think which seed is better or if it matters)

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hmmmm.....

good question. I think the #1 seed is a good goal to reach for. I think Tomlin has emphasized the whole “one game at a time” mentalitly pretty well to the team. We can definitly take the #1 seed and at home with the horrible conditions we will thrive!

by SoCalSteelerFan on Dec 15, 2008 12:34 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm just happy we punched our ticket

The division title is nice, but we got a lot of those. Those trophies are just dust collectors. I think about all those times we had home field throughout and failed to seal the deal and it really, really scares me that this season may be another heart-breaker.

That being said, I still have to believe it’s better to have home field advantage. I think.

by Jonny B. on Dec 15, 2008 12:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

19th Division title. I think.

Hard to keep count.

by Jonny B. on Dec 15, 2008 1:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

#1

You have to want the #1 seed. None of us would want to see the Steelers have to return to TEN for the championship game, if it comes down to it.

WE DEY!!!!!

by jr3131 on Dec 15, 2008 12:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Why?

That game hasnt even been played yet.

by Jonny B. on Dec 15, 2008 12:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

my recollection

We have lost championship games at home in ‘72, ’94, ’97, ’01, and ’04. Actually, I don’t really recall ’72. I was just 3, but still.

by Jonny B. on Dec 15, 2008 1:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

…I heard about it. Wasn’t there some catch by some guy named Harris the game before that?

by Jonny B. on Dec 15, 2008 10:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

must be nice being able to talk seedings…. DOLT!

by raven on Dec 15, 2008 1:02 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

yeah

we lose this game and can’t even discuss playoffs, yet.

by Jonny B. on Dec 15, 2008 1:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Playoff scenarios

Admittedly, there are still two games left and weird things could happen. But without any weirdness, the AFC seedings are likely to look like this:

IF STEELERS WIN OUT

Steelers
Titans
AFC East champ (Jets?)
Broncos
Colts
Ravens

In this scenario, the Steelers have a bye while the Ravens play at AFC East and the Colts play at Denver. If the Ravens win, we would play the Ravens in Pittsburgh the following week, while the Titans host the Broncos-Colts winner. If the Ravens lose, we play the Broncos-Colts winner (likely the Colts). If we win, we host the AFC Championship game.

IF TITANS BEAT STEELERS

Titans
Steelers
AFC East champ
Broncos
Colts
Ravens

In this case, of course, the roles are reversed, and Titans would host the Ravens should the Ravens beat the AFC East champ. The Steelers could not play the Ravens or the Titans until the AFC Championship.

I’ve gotta pick the Ravens to beat whatever the AFC East can come up with, even on the road. Therefore, if we have the #1 seed, we are likely to have to beat the Ravens and the Titans to make the Super Bowl, although both games would be in Pittsburgh. If we have the #2 seed, the Titans and Ravens get to beat each other up, whereas our toughest possible first round opponent would be the Colts. If the Ravens beat the Titans, we get home-field advantage, whereas if the Titans win, as the #2 seed we have to go there.

Still, I prefer the #2 slot. Although I think the Steelers can beat anyone at this point, the physical toll of playing the Ravens and Titans back-to-back could be tough to take. I know we lost to the Colts, but I’d love to host a rematch in the Burgh, and I’m not afraid of going on the road to beat the Titans. Plus, there is a good chance we could host the Ravens for the AFC Championship, and wouldn’t that be fitting?

If I’m the coach, I put in a pretty vanilla game plan this week and focus on figuring out what it will take to beat the Titans in the playoffs. We don’t need to win this Sunday.

by Steelin on Dec 15, 2008 1:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

lol

Idk i really hope we win so i can prove to all these people that we are the best team in the NFL, but its not good to be that until the end, because then people are out to get you. History doesn’t favor the #1 seed but we are writing our own history so i am not sure.

I just want the playoffs to start so we can kick some ass!

by Bleed-Black&Gold on Dec 15, 2008 1:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

#1 Seed

We want the number 1 seed. We want all the games at Heinz. To all those naming all the AFCCG we lost at home, this is a different team in a different era. But if you must site all those loses the Steelers won the AFCCG at Pittsburgh in 75, 78, 79 and 95. We won the SB in 3 of those 4 seasons. Home games rock.

When You Run The Ball Good Things Happen

by 5020 on Dec 15, 2008 1:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Agreed.

I don’t see Tomlin letting off the gas. He’ll keep the team’s head down and plowing forward.

by BallsofSteel on Dec 15, 2008 2:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agree also.

Sure, we lost all those years at home before finally winning it all in ‘05 on the road. Sure, we had a better road record in ’05 than home record like this year. However, I don’t think you want to tempt fate in this way. Our homefield advantage is considerable, taking into account our rabid fans and weather conditions this time of the year.

by Jonny B. on Dec 15, 2008 10:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i just want to avoid Indy

Only team that remotely worries me in the AFC.

But regardless if we’re 1 or 2, our first oppoenent in the divisional round will be determined by who wins in both the Wild Card games.

by Michael Bean (Blitz) on Dec 15, 2008 5:20 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

It’s funny that the #5 and #6 seeds will be stronger than the #3/#4. Neither the broncos or the jets/pats/phins worry me, but the inevitable rematch against either the colts or ravens is going to be one hell of a tough game.

I have to go with blitz and worry about the colts. We know the ravens will play tough and could beat us, but the colts actually have beaten us, at home no less. We’ve taken the ravens the distance twice, and I’ll take on the rookie QB in heinz in the playoffs. The only downside to playing the ravens is if we somehow lose (i can’t help but play the pessimist), we’ll have to listen to ravens fans discount the two wins in the regular season for the next eternity.

by steelguy99 on Dec 15, 2008 8:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But

Ben played his one of his worst games of the season against the Colts.

In fact, between weeks 8-10, he was his most dinged, the line was the weakest, and collectively the Steelers made the most number of mistakes.

Those weeks, against New York, Washington and Indy, he was a collective:

48/88 533 yds 1 td 8 int 38.7 passer rating

He also came out in the middle of the Skins game, so that is roughly 10 quarters of work, and certainly his worst stretch of output all season. Take those 3 games out of his season, and he has been very efficient:

Season: 247/416 2862 yds 15 td 12 int 80.2 rating
Season minus stretch of 10 shitty quarters: 199/328 2329 yds 14 td 4 int 91.4 rating

So I’m not saying he’s having an elite-type of year, even without those craptastic games, but what I am saying is that those 10 quarters are lower-than mean and the rest of the year he has been playing at the level we are accustomed to. By the way, that theoretical 91.4 passer rating would be good enough for 10th best in the league and a tick better than PeyPey.

So what am I saying? I don’t know exactly. I do know that the team, and the QB leading the team, that struggled for a three game stretch in the middle of the season, dealing with injuries all around, no longer exists. This is a different team, one that has been forged in the furnace of adversity, welded together with strength of character and force of will, and can beat any team in the NFL, from now until February. They can win.

Guns don't kill people. Lamar Woodley kills people.

by BostonWahoo on Dec 15, 2008 9:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The thing is though, you can’t say for certain that the teams he was playing had nothing to do with how he was playing. It could be X or Y or Z, but the way I look at it, we beat the ravens 2 for 2, and lost to the colts 1 for 1.

I’m worried about taking on the ravens for the 3rd time for sure, but I think I’d take that over a team with a competent offense that can actually burn our D.

Maybe the ravens will drop a game and the phins or pats will sneak into the #6 spot. I’d love that matchup. The media will be drooling all over the pats if they clean up the cards and BUF, we’ll rock them.

by steelguy99 on Dec 15, 2008 10:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

remember

they technically did not burn us, we patty caked it into their lap for a TD.

Big Ben drastically underthrew Holmes for an INT before the half to give the colts a TD.

Then in the 4th with the lead, BB throws a pick on a misunderstanding of a route because he has not been practicing which sets up another TD

thats 21 points we basically gave them and they only had 24. Mix that with our passion to beat them the second time because we know that we should have won mixed with the obvious better play BB has been playing since he has started practicing again (after that INDY loss he started practicing again and has thrown only 1 INT since) and mix it with the similar scenario that we lost to INDY when we really could have beaten them in 05 also and beat them in the playoffs, it could be a repeat.

I am not scared of any team in the AFC not even the ravens because their O is not going to win the game for them. Flacco is a rookie and it was evident when they played against us, also in the playoffs, it is going to be even more obvious that he is a rookie.

by Bleed-Black&Gold on Dec 15, 2008 5:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If the steelers were the colts that game, here’s what we would be saying:

Holmes took advantage of a tipped pass by the CB and went to the house.
Good heads up play by Ike to set up the 1st half TD.
Great read by McFadden to pick of Peyton for the win.

Any way you slice it we lost that game to the colts. There’s a lot of excuses, but I’m more afraid of the team we lost to than the team we beat (twice). The only team I’m really afraid of is the eagles, and we won’t be playing them this postseason.

by steelguy99 on Dec 15, 2008 5:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Beating a team three times in a season is a tough task.

We’ve done it a few times against Cleveland, but that’s Cleveland. If we have to play Baltimore again, the game may be a coin toss (50/50 chance of winning) much like the two regular season games.

I agree with you #5 and #6 will be better than #3 and #4, so it might be better to finish #2. This way we are more likely to play a 3 or 4 in second round. . The #1 seed gets the lowest seed left.

Personally, I think they need to go back to six divisions and six wild card teams. This system was way more equitable. One of these years you are going to have a #4 seed with a record of 8-8 or even 7-9, while a 10-6 team doesn’t even get in.

by Jonny B. on Dec 15, 2008 10:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

True, but as bad as the afc west is, I’m not at all convinced about the status of the AFC east. If the steelers say, finished 10-6 this year and didn’t make the playoffs because three AFC east teams were 11-5, that’d be criminal.

by steelguy99 on Dec 15, 2008 10:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Baltimore Is Cleveland Too

you can take the Brown out of Cleveland and paint it purple but it’s still a Brown. BrownRavens will go down 3 times in one year to the Steelers just like their ancestors.

When You Run The Ball Good Things Happen

by 5020 on Dec 15, 2008 7:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

nice point.

by Jonny B. on Dec 15, 2008 8:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Division imbalance

I notice this also. Right now, its very likely the Broncos would finish 9-7, or even 8-8 and the Chargers win division at 8-8

You have 3 9-5’s in the AFC east. Only one is guaranteed in. In fact, its very likely ONLY one gets in.

So you may have a 9-10 win team shafted this year. Its a mess.

I think the playoff field should go to 7, give them some extra options.

by Mechem on Dec 15, 2008 8:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Too bad for the AFC east – maybe if they stopped being crappy they could make the playoffs, but they won’t, so oh well.

by steelguy99 on Dec 15, 2008 10:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t think they should go to 7.

The format they have now is perfect, it is just makes winning your division, that more important. I mean the AFC East doesn’t exactly have anybody really good so it’s not like you are shafting a great team. If they were great they would beat the teams they are supposed to beat. The only thing that really matters is that the best team will come out of it in the end. And this format does that.

We all know that the Jets, Patriots, Dolphins are not better than the Steelers, Titans, Colts so does it matter which one of them gets in? They are going to lose anyways to one of the other 3 big teams.

by Bleed-Black&Gold on Dec 16, 2008 2:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I just hope the Colts

are over the beating we handed them in ’05 (score not indicative), since they won the SB the next year, but somehow I think it will probably be in a lot of those players heads who are still around from that year.

While we may be looking at it as a “revenge” game, so will they.

by Jonny B. on Dec 15, 2008 11:13 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I want #2

Heres my thoughts. Firstly, I think we can beat just about anybody. But I dont want everybody looking to beat us.

I assume the Ravens get in at #6, I really think they will. Just seems likely.

If things played out the way I see it, the Jets host the Ravens. Dont tell me the Jets win that. The Jets suck. Ravens NOW get to play the #1 seed. I believe it would be tougher to beat them a 3rd time, but I think Tennessee can take em.

Regardless of who gets the 5 and 6, I truly think both the 3 and 4 seeds will get upset. They just suck and I hate em and they stank.

by Mechem on Dec 15, 2008 11:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I’m not a fan of the jets by any means, but I think they are the only team in the AFC east that can take out the ravens.

On defense:
They locked up the titans run game.
They get a lot of sacks.
Beatable through the air – pressure on flacco + road noise = hard.

On offense:
They have a good running game, and pounded the rock against the titans.
Favre is a gamer and can win it.

by steelguy99 on Dec 15, 2008 11:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and if, somehow a 3 or 4 would advance, we would get them in 2nd round with Tennessee having to play the lowest seed left. We could still wind up hosting AFC CG in this scenario, as I think Indy or Baltimore can take care of Titans.

by Jonny B. on Dec 15, 2008 11:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

maybe

See I personally think it goes like this:

Jets lose to Baltimore. Jets have been too inconsistent, Defense sucks as of late.
Broncos lose to Indy. Broncos are like in a AA division. They suck. I hate em.

I think Pittsburgh whoops on Indy just because I hate em and they stank, and this time we rub some glue on Ike’s hands and Reggie wayne doesnt get 2 huge catches.

Baltimore COULD beat the Ten’Teeth Titans but I just dont think Flacco pulls it off against the vets. Although if there is no Haynesworth, then the McClain running campaign could change all that.

Either way, I believe the AFC Championship game is either PIT at TEN or BAL at PIT.

Either way we win that piece.

We play the Panthers and beat em.

by Mechem on Dec 15, 2008 1:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

very likely

I agree that BAL could easily beat TEN, especially now that Haynesworth could be out. I would feel much better about beating either of them if our running game had some more consistency. Either way, I see us playing the Giants, a team built for the post season. PHI beat them last week, but I can’t see the Giants losing another home game, if their RBs are healthy.

by fiveSBrings72 on Dec 15, 2008 1:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

New York

Is done.

its quite simple. People say Plaxico has not been doing much for them. But that is only because every defense had to devote multiple personnel to him. No longer is that the case.

Now people CAN lock up their other somewhat decent receivers. They arent amazing though. They arent serious red zone threats.

The running game IS stoppable, as we showed them.

Believe me we can take that team out.

Carolina is quietly becoming very very good.

by Mechem on Dec 15, 2008 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I’m now confident we can take any team in the playoffs. It remains to be seen if we will.

Thank you eagles for not being in the post-season.

by steelguy99 on Dec 15, 2008 6:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

not yet anyways in reguards to Eagles.

by Jonny B. on Dec 15, 2008 6:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

we will beat them

if we see them again.

as awful as that game was, i have confidence that we will beat them next time. In that horrible loss it brought to our attention that our offensive line was not good at picking up the blitz and that BB was not making good decisions but now we have faced many respectable Defenses and Blitzes and have finally improved the line and BB’s play. Last 2 weeks we went up against the #2 pass rush and #2 total defense and managed pretty good so if we go against Philly again, we win easily as we have more experience and know our flaws.

by Bleed-Black&Gold on Dec 15, 2008 6:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

not to mention our D is playing lights out, even better than earlier in the year.

by Bleed-Black&Gold on Dec 15, 2008 6:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We should wait to see what Baltimore does Saturday to have this coversation. If they lose then it will be a lot better to be the top seed as likely the Patriots would be the 6th seed.

by archon095 on Dec 15, 2008 2:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs