AFC Playoff Scenarios
by Michael Bean (Blitz) on Dec 22, 2008 10:00 AM EST
39 comments
Let's take a closer look at the possible seedings from 1-6 in the AFC now that the playoff picture got a little bit clearer this week.
LOCKED IN:
2) Pittsburgh Steelers
3) ?
4) San Diego/Denver - teams play in Week 17 in SD
5) Indianapolis - top AFC Wild Card
6) ??
STILL TO BE DETERMINED - AFC East Champion and #3 Seed:
* Miami secures #3 seed with W at New York Jets.
* New England secures #3 seed with W at Buffalo and Miami loss to NYJ
* New York Jets secure #3 seed with W vs. Miami and New England L @ Buffalo
STILL TO BE DETERMINED - 2nd Wild Card and #6 Seed:
* Baltimore secures #6 seed with W vs. Jacksonville
* Baltimore secures #6 seed with Miami L @ New York and New England L @ Buffalo
* New England secures #6 seed with W @ Buffalo and Baltimore L vs. Jacksonville (assuming MIA wins @ NJY and wins division)
* New York Jets secure #6 seed with W vs. Miami and Baltimore L vs. Jacksonville (assuming NE wins @ Buffalo and wins division)
WHAT IT MEANS FOR PITTSBURGH:
Well, it's actually still quite a mess in the #3 and #6 seed races, and with the Steelers locking up the #2 seed by virtue of losing to Tennessee on Sunday, that holds extra significance. Here's what we know:
1) Indy (#5) will travel to play either San Diego or Denver. San Diego of course is playing great the past three weeks. If they were to win, thatd be a great game between the two hot clubs. Assuming though Indy won that game (they definitely will beat Denver if they face off), then...
- Indy travels to Tennesee if the #3 seed beats the #6 seed
- Indy travels to Pittsburgh if the #6 seed beats the #3 seed.
You can decide for yourself what matchups you'd hope to see, but basically I think our loss against Titans made it more likely that we're going to face either Miami, New England or New York than it is likely we'd face a surging Colts or 'Bolts team. If the #6 seed wins, that team is heading to Nashville, regardless of what happens in the #5-#4 game. Baltimore could do it if they make the playoffs, but they're going to be traveling with a rookie QB regardless of how the AFC East shakes out. Lots still in play, but if Baltimore and Miami take care of business next week, the two of them will meet in Miami the following week. I think that's the most likely scenario for the time being, but you just never know. Week 17 doesn't always have this many scenarios still in play. Should be fun for the teams involved.
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Great breakdown
Too many what ifs to sort out, thanks for clarifying.
The only team I dont want the Steelers to face is Baltimore. Don’t like having to beat a good team 3 times in one year.
I would love to play any of the AFC East/AFC West teams in the first round
by bradyquinnsclipboard on Dec 22, 2008 12:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The good news is that if we do play baltimore in the playoffs, we’ll have just beaten the colts or someLosers while baltimore will have had to march through two road games against some losers and titans.
There is definitely an advantage here down the stretch for the steelers against the #6 seed. All teams that want the #6 seed need to play their last game for keeps, followed by two games before the steelers. The steelers will have had the rest and be coming off a playoff victory.
This scenario is only assuming the steelers play the #6 for the AFCC of course, which is not at all determined. The steelers must come out strong in the first playoff game to win – no dicking around.
by steelguy99 on Dec 22, 2008 12:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"first playoff game"
Agree with both you and bradyquinsclipboard, do not want to play Baltimore.
I look at the other teams and they are all beatable, Colts, Titans, Chargers/Broncos, Dolphins/Patriots/Jets.
If Baltimore gets #6 seed, we are guaranteed not to play them in the first round.
by Vtechnwn on Dec 22, 2008 3:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
afc east
The dolphins, pats, jets (and early season bills) have all been pumped up by joke schedules.
The wins from out of the division have come from:
chargers, 2x broncos, 2x seahawks, 2x raiders, 3x rams, 2x 49ers, 3x chiefs, 2x cards, bengals, titans
The only impressive victory there was the jets over the titans, and they followed that up by losing to denver, to san fran (beating buffalo) and losing again to seattle.
In some regards, you make it to the playoffs, and the regular season no longer matters, but in this case, the afc east has inflated records by playing one of the easiest schedules in recent years. From what I have watched, the teams are not top tier. They may step it up in the playoffs, but they have not shown they can consistent beat good teams- or even bad teams.
by vherub on Dec 22, 2008 12:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
exactly
I would be VERY surprised if both the Colts and Ravens did not take care of business on wild card weekend. San Diego is a muddled, inconsistent team playing slightly better football of late, while Denver looks like a mess; I don’t think either one stands a chance against a team as red-hot and playoff-tested as Indy. And yes, the AFC East teams are pretty much a creation of soft scheduling and media hype; assuming Baltimore wins next weekend and gets the #6, I think they’ll annihilate either the Dolphins or the Patriots.
by holiday park on Dec 22, 2008 12:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Indy-SD
I think that game would be a tossup. The Chargers have been playing much better lately, and they have a history of knocking off Indy in the playoffs unexpectedly.
by WolfpackSteelersFan on Dec 22, 2008 3:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
One could argue that our 2007 season was laced with some pretty soft scheduling as well. You can only beat who they put in front of you, and the AFC east teams have done that. Of course, last year most of us knew that our team was crippled and wasn’t going to make it very far. The AFC east teams have blinders on.
by steelguy99 on Dec 22, 2008 12:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i would agree with that, actually
My point is really that Pittsburgh and Baltimore are both tougher, battle-tested teams as a result of their schedules this year, and Indy has responded well to being in must-win mode for a while (owing to their bad start when Manning was hobbled and Saturday was out). But I’m not at all impressed by NE or Miami for the reason vherub points out: if 7 of your 10 wins are against AFC West and NFC West teams, you haven’t convinced me you can beat a quality team in the playoffs.
Indy is actually more beatable than some realize: Addai is not the same player this year, and their defense is suspect. Baltimore is the AFC team I least want to play in a few weeks.
by holiday park on Dec 22, 2008 3:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wish we didn’t play NE this year so they would go into the playoffs not knowing just how bad they were, assuming they even make it which is not at all a given.
by steelguy99 on Dec 22, 2008 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i don't think they'll make it in
My guess is that Miami and Baltimore both win this weekend. At which point all the Patriots pseudo-fans will hop over to the Celtics bandwagon.
by holiday park on Dec 22, 2008 4:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I firmly support a celtic transition.
by steelguy99 on Dec 22, 2008 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m really nervous about the Steelers playing anyone aside from Denver or the AFC East. San Diego doesn’t scare me as much as, say Indy, Tennessee, or Baltimore (even with sweeping the season series), but they are on a roll so maybe I should be more concerned. If they make it to the playoffs, of course.
Meanwhile, the NFC has the Giants.
by Brett Jones on Dec 22, 2008 12:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
That’s why they call them the playoffs – you can’t expect to win if you don’t go threw some good teams. I’ll be nervous about every single playoff game (even vs. afc east/west), but that’s the way it should be. You can’t win the superbowl by dodging the bullets.
by steelguy99 on Dec 22, 2008 12:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice rundown ...
However, our team is going into the playoffs after a year of dicey offense with no opportunity to tune it up. The final game does nothing for us unless the Browns are able to come out and play over the top. Scoring big over a hapless Browns team will not get it done.
by tenthmtnman on Dec 22, 2008 1:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I want to see us play (and of course DESTROY)
Indy in the divisional round, Tennessee in the AFC Champ., and NYG in the SB.
I want to see us avenge every loss from this year (or at least every one possible). All of those teams are really easy to hate too.
by JHolmes on Dec 22, 2008 1:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Now that is a good vision for the playoffs.
I have a hard time hating any of those teams though.
by steelguy99 on Dec 22, 2008 2:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Remember Denver’s ’97 revenge tour, the Steelers were on that.
by PensFan024 on Dec 23, 2008 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
playoffs?!?!?!
i am sorry but i think of jim mora sr to this day.
I don’t think the titans can beat indy, baltimore. They will be one and done. I really think baltimore can beat what ever afc east team shows up. NE keeps getting older, the jets are done, and miami justs lets everyone hang around. if i was going to pic one afc upset it would be san deigo over indy. This is all up to norv and if he will keep a balance and run the ball. Indy can’t stop the run with out bob sander in the box. Once he comes down start running playaction.
Our steelers are still the team to beat, and can be very well superbowl bound IF they don’t turn the ball over
"When the boogie man goes to sleep he checks his closet for Chuck Norris"
by elirock83 on Dec 22, 2008 3:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I didn’t think the titans could beat the steelers, but the did. Anything can happen in the playoffs.
by steelguy99 on Dec 22, 2008 3:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
re:playoffs
i think, realistically, indy can beat the titans. i think that game will be a toss up but i don’t even know if titans will get to the afc championship for a rematch w/ the steelers.
the titans game is no biggie.
remember 2004? when the steelers killed the patriots at heinz field and then the patriots came back and whupped us in the afc championship game or when indy destroyed us in 2005 and we came back and kicked their asses in the playoffs?
teams make adjustments and i am sure that dick lebeau will be well prepared for the playoffs.
by Vtechnwn on Dec 22, 2008 3:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
In that regard I very much like our chances this year:
AFC playoff contenders (and shoo-ins):
TEN
SD
DEN
NYJ
NE
MIA
IND
BAL
We’ve played 5 out of 8.
NFC playoff contenders (and shoo-ins)
NYG
CAR
ARI
ATL
MIN
DAL
TB
CHI
PHI
We’ve played 4 out of 9.
We’ve played more than 50% of the teams in the playoffs, and have I think played almost all of the “best” teams that could make it. If we are actually better at making adjustments, this gives us a pretty nice advantage. We know that the opponents defensive coordinator won’t even have to make adjustments, because arians will just call the same thing that didn’t work last time.
by steelguy99 on Dec 22, 2008 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
I was thinking about the same thing watching the game yesterday. Of the teams that I really thought would be dangerous for us, I thought we might be better off losing to Indy and the Titans in the regular season. And, the way we lost gave me hope that we could beat either team if the offense just doesn’t give away points.
by WolfpackSteelersFan on Dec 22, 2008 3:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone Thinking What I'm Thinking?
Thank god we lost yesterday. I doubt the Titans can even make it to the championship game when they will most likely face the Colts or Baltimore.
by BallsofSteel on Dec 22, 2008 4:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
#2 seed
While I’m disappointed that we lost yesterday because it’s never fun to lose, I do agree with what many are saying about the #2 seed being better in the long run. Basically, since Baltimore can only get in as the #6 seed, we can’t end up playing them in our first playoff game. Instead, we get Indy, the AFC East champ, or the AFC West champ. Of the possible options, I would prefer:
1. Denver/Miami/Jets – I think that our defense will eat any of these teams alive. Denver has no RBs left, so they’ll be one dimensional. Miami has put up 16 points, 16 points, and 14 points against St. Louis, Buffalo, and San Francisco in recent weeks. The Jets? Even if they hadn’t lost to San Francisco and Seattle in recent weeks, I would be extremely confident in our defense going up against Brett “guranteed to make at least one extremely dumb turnover per game” Favre.
2. New England/San Diego – I can’t decide who I would rather play because San Diego’s players scare me more but New England’s coach scares me more. We should be able to beat either one, but I’m not as confident as I would be against the three teams already mentioned.
3. Indy – I think that Ben can fix the mistakes he made the first time around and we can win, but they’re definitely the most complete team we could possibly face in our first game. And they will be more rested, because unlike all of the other five teams, they don’t have a meaningful week 17 game.
by nycsteeler on Dec 22, 2008 4:54 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
+1
agree with this breakdown 100%
by Michael Bean (Blitz) on Dec 22, 2008 5:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
AFC seedings are upside down
Assuming the Dolphins, Ravens, and Chargers make the playoffs, I would rank the four non-bye teams as follows (basically same as nycsteeler):
Ravens as the toughest team to beat
Colts
Chargers
Dolphins as the easiest team to beat
Ironically, these four teams would be seeded in exactly the opposite order. The cool thing is that the system is set up so that the #1 seed gets the easiest possible opponent. Because the seedings are so out of whack, they actually will guarantee that the Steelers, as #2 seed, get the easiest possible opponent. Nice.
That said, I think we can take down any of these teams at Heinz Field.
by Steelin on Dec 22, 2008 7:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
+1
Any of those teams are beatable at home. The tough game – assuming we make it – will be the conf. championship vs. either Titans or Colts.
by sylvansteeler on Dec 22, 2008 10:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The Steelers threw the game
I personally think Baltimore will be get the #6 seed.
I also think that the Fins lose to the Jets and the Belicheats beat the Bills and earn the #3 seed.
That leaves the #6 Colts playing (and beating) either the bolts or the culters.
The Belicheats will beat the Nevermores because the Big Cheat will make Flacco beat them, and he won’t.
So the Belicheats go back to Pittsburgh for another Deebo beat down. Meanwhile, the Colts flatten the Flaming Thumbtacks and travel to Heinz field for the AFC Championship game!!!
by vin2k on Dec 22, 2008 11:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I Agree "vin2k"
I think the Steelers threw that game @ Tennessee too, not making up excuses but our defense looked as if they played soft on purpose because we didn’t want to get anyone injured before the playoffs. Mike Tomlin and Dick Lebeau are smart as hell and I think they made the chessmove to play the Tenessee game soft so no injuries would happen, especially in a season game that means nothing except for getting home field advantage throughout the playoffs. I think we are fortunate to have the #2 seed and hopefully an AFC East team faces us in the divisional playoffs and Tennessee ends up losing so that the AFC Championship wil be in STEELTOWN!!!!!
by SteelChad88 on Dec 23, 2008 1:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, the thumbtacks only get homefield if they beat the Colts, and I see that as a long shot right now based on how the Colts are playing.
by vin2k on Dec 23, 2008 7:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
don't know if they "threw" the game, but . . .
The seeding does seem to work in our favor.
I disagree with the last part, though. New England is an overrated team with a soft schedule that’s yet to show they can do anything other than run up the score against lousy teams that play no defense. Much as I’d rather see the Steelers play them than the Ravens in the playoffs, I think Baltimore will absolutely kick the crap out of the Cheatriots in a wild card game.
by holiday park on Dec 23, 2008 10:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And I’d have a hard time rooting for the patriots in that game – because dallas and them are permanently in the never-root-for section.
by steelguy99 on Dec 23, 2008 10:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think they threw the game, but I did get a sense that Lebeau was pulling punches (and who knows, maybe BA was also) so he would still have a few tricks left in the bag if the two teams meet again in the AFC championship game.
by PensFan024 on Dec 23, 2008 1:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bwa ha ha, BA pulling punches? He doesn’t even know how to throw them.
by steelguy99 on Dec 23, 2008 1:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
2nd seed
in my recent memory, our history of being the 1st seed has not been the best, i will gladly take the the 2nd seed and like our chances- by the way, I hate the freakin colts
by indianasteelers on Dec 24, 2008 2:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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