AFC North Remains Tight Race

by Blitzburgh on Dec 8, 2008 5:13 AM EST Comment 38 comments

We'll delve into the matchup more closely throughout the week, but let's take a look at how the AFC North race is stacking up with just three games to go. It's hard to believe that the Ravens have hung so tough and are right there as we head down the home stretch, but that's what winning streaks of four and three (current) will do for you. In fact, the Ravens have won 7 of 8 since losing three in a row to fall to 2-3. Let's see how the rivals schedules compare:

PITTSBURGH (10-3): @ Baltimore, @ Tennessee, Cleveland

BALTIMORE (9-4): Pittsburgh, @ Dallas, Jacksonville

Scenarios not involving Extensive Tie-Breakers:

PITTSBURGH Wins Division If...

1) They win on Sunday vs. Baltimore - we would own the head-to-head 2-0 with Baltimore. They could get no higher than 11 wins, which we would already be at.

BALTIMORE Wins Division If...

If you didn't vomit all over your work space by the mere thought of that reality, carry on and...

BALTIMORE Wins Division If...

1) They win out and Pittsburgh loses out. Sounds unlikely until you remember that there are only two games after our head-to-head matchup, one of them being against the league's best team...on the road. Remember though, this puppy is over if Pittsburgh wins on Sunday, regardless of what happens in the final two games proceeding that.

Scenariors involving Tie-Breaker Procedures: (hat tip to Concomitandt for helpful fanpost)

PITTSBURGH Possible Outcomes (assuming L @ Baltimore)

1) Pittsburgh 10-6 (L @ Baltimore, L @ Tennessee, L vs. Cleveland)

2) Pittsburgh 11-5 (L @ Baltimore, W @ Tennessee, L vs. Cleveland)

3) Pittsburgh 11-5 (L @ Baltimore, L @ Tennessee, W vs Cleveland)

4) Pittsburgh 12-4 (L @ Baltimore, W @ Tennessee, W vs. Cleveland)

BALTIMORE Possible Outcomes (assuming W vs Pittsburgh)

1) Baltimore 10-6 (W vs. Pittsburgh, L @ Dallas, L vs. Jacksonville)

2) Baltimore 11-5 (W vs. Pittsburgh, W @ Dallas, L vs. Jacksonville)

3) Baltimore 11-5 (W vs. Pittsburgh, L @ Dallas, W vs. Jacksonville)

4) Baltimore 12-4 (W vs. Pittsburgh, W @ Dallas, W vs. Jacksonville)

And The Winner Is?

Let's go through those possible scenarios to see who the winner would be in each instance (determining tie-breaker rule in parentheses)

1) Both teams tied at 10-6 - Winner = Baltimore (Divisional record)

2) Both teams tied at 11-5 -

A) With Pittsburgh loss to Cleveland, Winner = Baltimore (Divisional Record)

B) With Pittsburgh win vs. Cleveland, and BAL Loss vs JAX, Winner = Pittsburgh (Conf. record

3) Both teams tied at 12-4 - WINNER = Pittsburgh (Conf. record)

So there ya have it. We can put the champagne on ice this week and slam the door shut on Baltimore's chances with a victory against the hated Ravens. But if they were to win their fourth in a row and snap our winning streak, the Ravens would have more than a fighting chance. The AFC East may have gotten more convoluted, but the rest of the AFC picture came into sharper focus this weekend. Looks like the Colts are in good shape. Provided they beat the Lions at home (which they will, a win at Jacsonville or vs. Tennesse will get them in. As for the second WC spot, Baltimore would still have a great chance provided they beat Jacksonville to finish with an 8-4 AFC mark. The Jets, Pats and Fins are either 6-4 or 5-5 in AFC play, and one of them of course has to be the divisional winner, not to mention the fact that there are multiple inter-division matchups left in the crowded East.

So really, this is hardly a must-win game for either team. The stakes are plenty big, that's for sure. But neither team's hinges rests too squarely on the outcome.

Let's just end the debate and let the Ratbirds focus on that Wild Card chase. What better team to keep the winning streak alive against, as well?? At NE, vs. Dallas, then at Baltimore?? You serious? Talk about a dream lineup to mow down on route to a divisional championship and hopefully more.

Go Steelers!

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Don't forget

Even if we lose to the Ravens, it helps us in one respect: Tennessee will clinch the #1 seed with a win. With nothing to play for the following week, Tennessee could be resting and starters and wanting to avoid a violent football game.

by CarlWeathersMustache on Dec 8, 2008 8:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Oops

Just saw Concomitandt posted this same thought in his Tiebreaker fanpost. Didn’t mean to steal his thunder.

by CarlWeathersMustache on Dec 8, 2008 8:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hmm

Perhaps. Maybe the Titans would rest a few guys and not show much on offense in terms of trickery, but when you think about what they like to do – pound it, then pound it some more – I can’t really see how they’d change the approach too much. Jeff Fisher is also not really the type to mess around with playing for later. He’s not foolish and would take his guys out perhaps if the game got out of hand either way, but I can’t see that particular coach messing with a good thing only to avoid some contact and potential injury. We’ll see. I’d rather beat the Rat Birds even if it meant them at full strength!

by Blitzburgh on Dec 8, 2008 9:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, Beat Baltimore

And let Tenneesee play full strength, The #1 seed will still be on the line for them, and WE will be the team fighting for it!

by Jonny B. on Dec 8, 2008 10:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ps

You get my email the other day?

by Blitzburgh on Dec 8, 2008 9:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Another scenario, looking ahead

Suppose we take down the Ravens next week, clinching the division.

Do we rest up for the remainder of the season or fight for a chance at the #1 seed? On the one hand, bad weather has been a huge advantage for the Steelers the last two seasons and having home-field would help through the playoffs. On the other, it requires beating the Titans and then hoping the Titans lose to the Colts in Week 17.

by HinesField on Dec 8, 2008 9:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

no sir

No way we rest. Tomlin would not have it that way. Plus, even if we’re not playing for #1, we’re then playing for #3, as Indy’s right on our tail and holds a tie breaker over us. We’re essentially tied with them right now.

by Blitzburgh on Dec 8, 2008 10:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Indy can not get the #2 seed. Ten has won the south, so at best they can get a #5 seed. The only teams that could have a chance of geeting the bye would be the AFC East or West winner. With the Jets losing, if the steelers win the AFC, they pretty much have the #2 seed. Luckily for us, 2 of the 3 loses came from NFC teams giving us a good tie breaking position with conference record.

IF they beat the rave, just an if… of course they play for the number 1 seed. They play Ten and beating them gives Pit the head ot head tie breaker if they end up with the same record. Its a no brainer….

by Danto85 on Dec 8, 2008 10:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

*steelers win the AFC North

by Danto85 on Dec 8, 2008 10:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

does that

You are correct, thank you. However, does that apply to home field advantage as well? Don’t they re-seed after the first round? So yeah, good call, but would the divisional round be in Indy or Pitt assuming we had same record?

by Blitzburgh on Dec 8, 2008 10:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pittsburgh

They dont reseed.

by Jonny B. on Dec 8, 2008 10:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You keep the same seed after the first round, its just not a true bracket as the top seed always plays the lower seed.

Indy vs. Pit would be in Pittsburgh (assuming they go on to win the North).

Though being the number two seed might not be so bad…. If Indy has a 5th or 6th seed and wins the first round (With the other wildcard playoff game being won by the higher seed)… the number one seed might have to play the colts in the second round. I mean would you rather play the colts or Dolphins/Jets/Denver o.0 ?

by Danto85 on Dec 8, 2008 10:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah for sure

No one team truly frightens me, but depending on what I see from TN in a few weeks, I’d say Indy’s the team that frightens me most. Anyway, the mission for now couldnt be clearer – beat the hated Ravens and deliver some payback for their thugtastic BS from earlier in the year. The fact that it’d clinch a division in their house would make it so sweet.

by Blitzburgh on Dec 8, 2008 10:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The Ravens give me the heebee jeebees. We can be beaten by a team with good defense. A team that can force our O into mistakes can give themselves a short field against our D. The Ravens are one such team. Furthermore, we’ll probably walk out of that game with a few injuries. (So will they, but that’s not going to help us beat the Titans.) Big. Intense. Brutal. Lovely. That’s the Ravens.

by Varmint on Dec 8, 2008 11:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yea me too

For the moment, I’m hoping that this is just ‘our year’. Wins over the Pats, Cowboys, Ravens and Jags to start the year. Those are four teams that have owned us – well not the Cowboys, but the significance is still there. And we still another chance to beat the Ravens, Titans (who I will forever hate for our games in past years, and for the Joe Nedney FLOP FG bs), and Browns. That’s delicious.

Seems like we’ve said it every week, but this week again will be a major barometer.

by Blitzburgh on Dec 8, 2008 11:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

me three

If we lose next week and subsequently the division, we very likely tumble down to the #6 seed (with Indy holding tie-breaker against us). While we did win SB as #6, I don’t think we want to tempt fate in that way.

by Jonny B. on Dec 8, 2008 5:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not convinced Colts are so good

The Colts six-game winning streak has been built on wins against the Texans (6-7), Chargers (5-8), Browns (4-9), and Bengals (1-11). Plus, the Colts barely beat the Pats in Indy. And, of course, their big win over the Steelers that featured two gift INTs from Big Ben. Other than the hapless Bengals, the Colts couldn’t beat any of these teams by more than 6 points. So let’s hold off on anointing them as the second coming of the 2006 Colts. I’d love to have a second chance at the Colts in the playoffs.

by Steelin on Dec 8, 2008 12:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Very likely

If we beat the Ravens, I think the game vs TEN will end up deciding who gets the first seed in the AFC, because Indy isn’t losing any more games this season until the playoffs.

by JHolmes on Dec 8, 2008 10:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

also

not entirely related, but I’m not scared of the road like I used to be. We’re playing great at home this year and it’s partly I think because our defense is just disgusting on a fast track, which most all places are compared to Heinz.

by Blitzburgh on Dec 8, 2008 10:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

whoops

playing great on the ROAD I meant to write.

by Blitzburgh on Dec 8, 2008 10:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed. Back in ‘06 we were a road team. John Maddening remarked that having good defense was like having good luggage. You don’t mind traveling if you’ve got good luggage. We wore our “away” uniforms even though we were designated the “home” team for the SB.

This year, we’re a lot like that team.

by Varmint on Dec 8, 2008 10:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Longest Win Streak Under Tomlin-

This is the first time Tomlin has strung together 4 wins; bring on the rat-birds!

Let's Go!

by jacksteel on Dec 8, 2008 11:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

yea

thats a good and important point. It’s hard for so-so teams to win four in a row in this league unless the schedule’s just great.

We’ve won four in a row as we’ve gotten a bit healthier and our opponents have been pretty tough – Cincy (not so tough), SD (not tough record wise, but a legit team still. Theyre two last second plays away from being at least 7-6, if not better), New England and now a previously hot Dallas team.

What a crazy fun season! I thought lots of action has occurred. The next two weeks have the potential to be bonkers. Love it.

Lol, in California chilling with the TV on mute in the background gratuitiously, since I got to watch like none all fall. Just watched Ken Dorsey (LOL) just get pummeled all day. 160 yards or something on 44 attempts. Unreal.

by Blitzburgh on Dec 8, 2008 11:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

October 27, 2002

The last time the Steelers won in Baltimore. The Ravens were a 7-9 team that year. It was the only year since ‘98 that the Ravens didn’t have a top 10 defense. BigBen was 20 years old.

Just trying to set the stage on a big week, and a very big IF (we win) in Baltimore.

by The IC Lion on Dec 8, 2008 11:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

The film is piling up on Flacco.

The first time the Steelers faced Flacco and the Ravens’ offense LeBeau did not have much gametape on him. Now the Steelers defense has a lot more tendencies to study under new Ravens hc Harbaugh. Hopefully this works to the advantage of the Steelers.

The Ravens o-line is doing an excellent job run blocking and pass blocking (even w/out Ogden this year). I believe the key to this game will be getting Flacco frustrated. He not spent a lot time on his back this season /unlike ben.

Overall, the league better start giving some props to the two defenses that come from the AFC North!

by bradyquinnsclipboard on Dec 8, 2008 12:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

the two scarriest, intimidating defenses in the league

that’s for sure

by NoCal-SteelCity on Dec 8, 2008 12:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Need option 2C

Blitz, you need to add option 2C to your post: both teams tied at 11-5, Steelers beat Browns, Ravens beat Jax—Steelers win on 5th tiebreaker (see my reply to Concom’s fanpost).

Here is a shorter summary:

Baltimore wins division if:

Ravens beat Steelers AND Ravens beat Cowboys (in Dallas) AND Ravens beat Jaguars AND Steelers lose to Titans

Steelers win division (and #2 playoff seed) if:

All other scenarios (as long as Steelers beat Browns)

Therefore, unless the Ravens are counting on help from the Browns, this is a must-win for them to win the division. If they lose, however, they still have a good shot at a wild-card spot.

by Steelin on Dec 8, 2008 3:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Division is probably out of reach

But we’d need to go 1-2 with New England going 3-0 to miss the playoffs. We’re pretty much boxed in at #6.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Dec 8, 2008 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

it is possible for us to go 1 & 2 tho...

Not likely… but possible

Life is nothing but Beats & Rhymes

by Matchz Malone on Dec 8, 2008 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's possible

I just don’t see the Patriots going 3-0.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Dec 8, 2008 4:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

lol u serious???

U face Pittsburgh and Dallas the next two weeks followed by a Jacksonville team that can capture a tiny bit of redemption by sending yall packing potentially in Week 17.

1-2 is a very distinct possibility. And you know me. I’m not just slinging mud.

by Blitzburgh on Dec 8, 2008 4:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

New England would need to win out

And I’m not sure about you, but I’m not buying into this Cassel hype. Or the Patriots for that matter.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Dec 8, 2008 4:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

According to this playoff generator i just used...

If we go 12-4 and you go 11-5 we get the 2 seed… CHEA!!!! lets go for that ravens fans… GO TITANS

Life is nothing but Beats & Rhymes

by Matchz Malone on Dec 8, 2008 4:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Tied at 11-5...are you sure Pitt wins tiebreak if,,,,?

While I’m hoping the steelers pull out a win at Baltimore, I’m definitely worried. So for hypothetical’s sake, say we lose to Baltimore. We’re both 10-4.

Let’s then say we get lucky and Balt loses to Dallas and beats Jax.
Then let’s say we LOSE to Tennessee (thinking worst case) but of course kill Cleveland.
So we both finish 11-5

Here’s the tie break from nfl.com

Head-to-head: Tied
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division: Tied at 5-1
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. Tied at 9-3
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. Tied at 8-4

Then the next one is Strength of victory.

Does anyone know how we calculate this?

Is it straight points for minus points against? If so, we’re behind by 10 points right now, and would it actually be possible that we lose because of that negation of Polamula int. against SD we could lose this one.

Anyone?

by moonjockey on Dec 8, 2008 4:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

No, i believe...

It means our opponents records… like did each of us beat teams that were beating up on other teams

Life is nothing but Beats & Rhymes

by Matchz Malone on Dec 8, 2008 4:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

or would that be strength of schedule....

Which is actually the next tiebreaker. At first I thought that would mean the number we’ve been touting all season—the steelers having the toughest in the league. But I THINK it means strength of opponents record THIS year, which is what you’re talking about.

I thought strength of victory is how badly you beat people.

by moonjockey on Dec 8, 2008 4:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

wait, i think your right... i got confused

Life is nothing but Beats & Rhymes

by Matchz Malone on Dec 8, 2008 5:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Calculating strength of victory

I posted the details under Concom’s fanpost. Matchz is right, you add up the records of the opponents that you beat. The short answer is, our victories over the Patriots, Cowboys, and Chargers are likely to outweigh Ravens victories over Dolphins, Eagles, and (gak) Raiders. Although it is possible things could change.

BTW, due to the Eagles tie, it is not possible for the Steelers and Ravens to tie on the strength of victory tiebreaker. Therefore, we will never get down to net points. Thus, the butchered call at the end of the San Diego will not come back to haunt us.

by Steelin on Dec 8, 2008 7:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs