Encore For The Patriots

by RickVa on Feb 6, 2008 12:07 PM EST

Bumped. Nicely written thoughts on the Patriots situation moving forward by RickVa. Contributions like this should remain a fun part of BTSC this offseason. Keep 'em coming! While I'm at it, I agree with his assesment. It's hard to imagine the Patriots going anywhere but down from here. Though I still don't advise betting against Tom Brady at age 30.

-Blitz-

As the dust settles from SB XLII we may be witnessing the beginning of one of the most rapid and radical turnarounds of the fortunes of a franchise. The Patriots may well be going from being on the brink of the greatest accomplishments in professional football, maybe team sports, to significant decline in the relative blink of an eye.

By establishing an outlandish expectation of perfection and dominance over the rest of the league, the Patriots have not only created the conditions where this season will likely be viewed by friend and foe allke as a complete, unqualified failure, but next season will probably be viewed that way as well. Unless...they can repeat the performance of this year, and then finish by winning the championship. But the liklihood of doing so has been dramatically altered by the circumstances of their fall this year.

First of all, regardless of how it is resolved, the specter of cheating will dog this franchise as long as Belichek remains the coach. Losing the Super Bowl may have been the best thing to happen to the Pats in this regard. But a certain amount of pressure to get to the bottom of this issue will continue for two reasons. In spite of his obvious level of competence between the lines, the head coach remains at best an unsympathetic figure who doesn't fail to arouse the animosity of even casual fans of the game. Second, Commissioner Goodell is being exposed as one who operates on a double standard. Treating the field hands (players) harshly, while letting the higher ups slide. Example; as more information is known about the Michael Vick case, it is becoming clear that Vick's role in the dog fighting ring may have been much less central than initially believed. Yet Commissioner Goodell chose to pile on, presumably for the good of the game and allow Vick to crucified as a PETA poster boy for animal abuse. Yet his behavior in Spygate was more, how shall we say, forgiving. Establishing yourself as a tough guy by kicking the Pac Man Jones in the teeth while giving the Belicheks a relative slap on the wrist will not fly, particularly if Congress gets involved. However you view it the Pats may find themselves under a similar cloud that afflicked the Falcons this past year.

While they have a more than competent front office and plenty of tools that they can utilize to make some improvements, there are some issues that may be harder to solve with a high draft choice and a handful of free agent signings. For one their defense is not simply aging, its old, and getting older as we speak. They can remain reasonably effective, but they are beginning to remind me of George Allen's Redskins of the 70s, a team that succeeds with guile and treachery as opposed to skill. But even more importantly, the Giants have essentially stripped the Pats of their mystique. The formula for beating New England? Hit them in the mouth, keep hitting them in the mouth, and then hit them in the mouth some more. They can expect that from every team they play from here on out. And while most teams may lack the talent or consistency to generate wins, they will help soften them up for teams that do.

Finally, there is the whole problem of having raised expectations impossibly high. Every game will be the Super Bowl for the Pats because as soon as they lose one, their season will be a relative failure again. They may win the world championship, and be viewed as a dynasty on par with the 60s Packers, 70s Steelers, 80s 49ers and 90s Cowboys, but the best ever talk is over if they lose so much as one game. That's pressure.

So what can we expect? They'll most likely win their division, though not as handily as the pundits think. Expect the Dolphins to get better quick, and the Jets and Bills to not be as bad as they were last year. Win or lose expect the Steelers, Colts and Chargers to punch them in the mouth, and either they or the Jags or Browns to take them out in the playoffs. Expect next year to be the last year that they compete effectively for a championship without major restructuring of the team.

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Spygate fallout

It will largely depend on what, if anything, comes out Arlen Specter's raising the issue again. It's possible that he will ask a few questions, but not be able to open a serious congressional investigation, in which case it will probably go away. However, if new evidence comes to light, and a congressional investigation shows that Goodell didn't perform his due diligence in investigating Spygate to begin with, it could cost Goodell his job. Also, if that happens, and there is new evidence that the Pats did indeed cheat in a way that could have impacted very close games (which they became famous for winning close games), the new commish will probably seek to ban Belichick from the league. Any other assistants found to be involved in it could also be banned or suspended.

But, as I said, it all depends on what comes of Arlen Specter's investigation of it.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Feb 6, 2008 11:41 AM EST 0 recs

Schedule

They have an easy as hell schedule. They play 9 games against teams that are at 100-1 odds of going all the way next season. Who knows what will happen, but they should have an easy road to a high seed. I think they will be right up there again. Of course we know they aren't unstoppable! But they are good.

"It's time to plant some seeds. What that means is, hit them in the mouth. Ya know, plant some seeds. Show 'em what time it is." --Levon Kirkland

by steelerinchicago on Feb 6, 2008 2:44 PM EST 0 recs

good point on thier schedule

The do have a pretty easy schedule for a division winner. Here are the opponents outside of thier division games:

Home: Broncos, Cards, Chiefs, Rams, Steelers
Away: Chargers, Colts, 49ers, Raiders, Seahawks

They have the cupcake NFC West and the up and down AFC West. Obviously they have tough games with the Chargers, Colts and Steelers but thier division is horrible. Nothing like playing the AFC South and NFC East.

"You know who I want? William Wallace. That's who I'm looking for" - Bengals defensive line coach when asked who he was looking for in the draft

by cgolden on Feb 6, 2008 2:57 PM EST up 0 recs

well

I agree sic, they're going to win a ton of games next year, maybe as many as 14. And, it's not entirely ludicrus to think Brady could throw 45 TD passes next year. But the defense is an issue. Obviously they'll use their resources in the draft and FA to mix things up a bit, but it may be another two or three years until the defense is retooled enough to be scary, even if their offense is rolling along perfectly.

by Blitzburgh on Feb 6, 2008 2:59 PM EST up 0 recs

Spygate

All this spygate stuff is overblown. Specter said he wanted to repeal the anti-trust exemption for the NFL; it's not about the Patriots, it's about direct TV and NFL Network. He's just using this as a way to get Goodell to do what he wants.

I also don't think they'll have that much pressure on them next year. They will very clearly not be as good of a team (even if they get Moss back), and after the SB, I think everyone collectively realized that 19-0 is not a realistic expectation.

Interesting, though, in one game, I went from thinking "everyone will sign cheaply with the Pats to win a SB" to "the Pats should have won the past 2 SB's, but blew them both". Maybe last offseason had a little more desperation in it than we thought.

by BadMaafala on Feb 6, 2008 2:55 PM EST 0 recs

Sure it was

Because it involved the undefeated team in the SB who was also going for their 4th SB in 7 years. But, that does not mean that it may not have far reaching consequenses. That was why I said IF there is evidence that the Pats unfairly influenced their SB wins and Goodell covered it up or didn't dig deep enough, they could have greater consquences. If that evidence is not found, then it will all blow over with nothing further happening.

Also, if Specter is pushing for something about the NFLN and DirecTV, then he's going about it in an odd way. At this point it seems that his focus is the Patriots, because, at least from what he said, part of the anti-trust exemption assumes that games will not be played with an unfair advantage. Of course, he is a politician, so I know you have to factor that in when thinking about what he says.

Anyway, I'm saying we'll know a lot more in the next few months about what impact Spygate has.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Feb 6, 2008 3:34 PM EST up 0 recs

Patriot demise?

As much as I would like to see the Patriots significantly decline, I just don't agree with RickVA's post.

It seems more like wishful thinking or specious reasoning to me.

Sure the team will probably decline somewhat. Almost every team on top does decline to an extent because the NFL is built to make it tough for any team to stay on top. But to predict that the team will significantly decline? I don't see it.

Let's look at the team somewhat systematically.

The offense is in great shape, even pending the resigning of Moss. The Patriots have a great qb in Brady and he is in his prime. Maroney is young. Everybody on the entire starting offensive line is still under 30 years old and none is a free agent. Wes Welker is 27. Ben Watson is young. Indications are that Moss may resign with the team. And even though we think of Moss as old, he will only be 31 next season. And even if he leaves, the Patriots were within a fg of making it to the Super Bowl last year (when they lost to the Colts) with one of the worst wr corps in the league. And the Patriots could choose to decline the options on Stallworth (8 mil) and Washington (4 mil) in an effort to resign Moss if they choose.

The defense does have some age, but it's overblown by those who are simply looking (grasping?) for a reason to believe that the team is on a verge of a collapse. Nobody on the defensive line is over 29 and nobody is a free agent. They are pups compared to our starting defensive line. The lb crew does have age issues. But also remember that they will have Roosevelt Colvin back next year. Any lb crew that features Colvin and Thomas (who will be able to move back inside) isn't in dire straits. The secondary only features one old guy, Rodney Harrison. But who's to say that Brandon Merriweather won't start to take a bigger role next season. Asante Samuel is a free agent.

This team has parted ways with the likes of Willie Mcginest, Ty Law, Deion Branch, David Givens, Daniel Graham, Ted Johnson, Corey Dillon, Ted Washington, Adam Vinatierri etc., and have continued to roll. So I hope that fans don't think that losing Samuels and/or Moss will suddenly make this team an also ran.

Do the Patriots have some personnel questions heading into the offseason? Sure. But so does every team in the NFL in this era. And I would venture to say that the Patriots are in pretty good position considering their success over the past 7 years.

RickVA asserts that everybody will be taking aim at the Patriots from now on, "hitting them in the mouth" as the Giants did. This makes it seem as if the Giants revealed a unique, previously unfathomable, strategy to the rest of the NFL and now other teams will simply copy that strategy with success. Rather, I believe that the Giants probably possess the best pass rushing set of defensive linemen in the league and were able to use that to their benefit. Very few teams, if any, have a similar ability to get to the qb with their front four. Anyone who is a Steeler fan should realize that the Steelers blitzed the Patriots often in last year's regular season match up but they simply didn't have the personnel to get to Brady.

And to assert that the Patriots season would be a "relative failure" once they lose a single regular season game next season. Please. Was their season a failure when they came into Heinz field in 2004 riding a 22 game winning streak and lost? Remember that they did rebound to spank us in our house in the AFCCG that year and won the Super Bowl. What a disappointment that season muxt have been for the Patriots? (sarcasm)

Meawhile, the team isn't in a horrible salary cap position, and they have a top 10 pick in the draft.

Would I love to see a Patriots collapse. You betcha. Do I honestly believe that it'll happen? Unlikely.

by steeler1275 on Feb 6, 2008 4:26 PM EST 0 recs

They can stay on top

The only way things will go south in a hurry for the Patriots is if Spygate 2 turns out to be substantively disastrous for Belichick. That not only puts further doubt on the legitimacy of their previous wins, but also doubt on Belichick's status for the immediate future. Impossible to know at this point if Spygate 2 has any substance.

There won't be any pressure on them to repeat this year's unbeaten run. The pressure will be on how they perform in the playoffs. They'll win the division again and might again have the No. 1 playoff seed, courtesy of the soft schedule. This loss might even be a motivating factor for them, to get the perfect ending one year after the 18-0 perfect start.

They have some significant challenges on defense but they have drafted well, traded well and been willing to spend money on Free Agents, so they might be able to rebuild the D while remaining atop the AFC East. The offense will again be very good and is relatively young, with a QB who (barring injury) has at least another five good years ahead of him.

The mystique of the (almost) perfect Patriots was a one-year phenomenon. As each year goes by without winning another Super Bowl, it's only logical to assume the window is gradually closing on another championship with this group. The cast of championship veterans will inevitably become smaller. The list of potential challengers grows larger. But I don't see them going through the kind of dramatic collapse that Rick envisions. They're in better shape with their roster, and within their division, than the Steelers were after their fourth Super Bowl victory, when the next two years we went 9-7 and 8-8 in a tough division and missed the playoffs, then essentially had to start life after Bradshaw.

But it will be very enjoyable, as Rick I think accurately predicts, to see more teams punching them in the mouth next year and beyond.

by steeler lifer on Feb 6, 2008 4:54 PM EST 0 recs

in between

I think they'll be somewhere in between RickVA's take and Steeler1275's. I think their weak link will be on defense. They will lose thier best defensive player (Samuel) and one of thier leaders (Seau) and Bruschi and Harrison are getting ever so close to the end of the rope. Their defensive line is young and talented but outside of those guys that need some youth. They'll probably draft a young stud ILB in the first but my guess is they'll be vulnerable in the secondary. I think the offense is in bigger trouble than most think if Moss doesn't come back (even though I think he will). Welker is great in the slot but he wouldn't be near as effective as a #2, which he'll probably be if Stallworth is cut to pay Moss.

Bottom line is this team will be in the playoffs as a division winner. They won't be undefeated but they'll still be a formidable opponent every single week.

"You know who I want? William Wallace. That's who I'm looking for" - Bengals defensive line coach when asked who he was looking for in the draft

by cgolden on Feb 6, 2008 5:14 PM EST 0 recs

easy division

means they will be fine. i'd be more wondering about the mental effect of blowing a perfect season in the very last game. they had built that up to everything in their minds, and seemed to believe in the super bowl that it would be handed to them....i think this defeat hurts them, more than it might give them a chip on their shoulder. Moss already took a quiet shot at the coaching staff after the SB and I bet he leaves town, or next year when they aren't undefeated and he's not catching as many balls he'll complain. it's just who he is. no team with randy moss on it will win a championship. yah of course the Pats said he was great in the locker etc etc, blah blah, what else would they say, that hes terrible and start a media storm? he's a cancer. he quit in the 2nd half of the Super Bowl. the pats look frighteningly like the vikings of the late '90s now.

by TheMostViolentTeam on Feb 6, 2008 5:22 PM EST 0 recs

The mental edge

It will be interesting to see what the mental impact will be on the Pats after blowing the opportunity to be 19-0. They were less than a minute away from the perfect season. Obviously, the pressure finally got to them, because that was not the same team that we saw in the regular season. Sure they struggled in a couple of games, and probably got lucky against the Ravens, but they blew out teams early in the season, and they found ways to win ugly late in the season. In fact, they no longer seem to rise to the occasion in the most pressure packed moments. Each of the last two years, they've fallen in those moments.

From my other comments, I obviously agree with Lifer. I think the most likely way they really fall apart is if there is something of substance found in Spygate 2. If not, they will continue to be a very good, even great, team until Brady starts to falter. Then, Bill will kick him to the curb just like he did to Kosar and Bledsoe, unless one of them retires first.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Feb 6, 2008 5:39 PM EST 0 recs

Reasonable rebuttal

But I'm sticking to my guns on this one though I could certainly be wrong. But consider:

The last time the Patriot "Dynasty" won a championship was three seasons ago. Yes, they are a very good football team, but what the hell kind of dynasty is that? Unless we are inflating the value of the term. If almost counts for being dynastic, then the Steelers, Colts, Eagles, a whole lot of teams can claim the label. And the Steelers and Colts have won championships more recently. In this sense the Pats have been in decline for a few years already. If you remember, the Pats policy toward free agency had been very similar to that of the Steelers. This past year they broke from that tradition (some might say they got desperate), went for broke signing wide receivers, plus Thomas on defense. And until this week it appeared that it would pay off...And then it didn't. Two of their three new wideouts may depart this off season leaving them essentially where they were last off season.

The idea of a rather rapid decline is not crazy. Happens all the time in this league. Many Steeler fans were ready to believe that our team had fallen off a proverbial cliff right after winning a Super Bowl in the most difficult manner possible.

As for the "relative failure" thing, answer me this; they won 18 games and made it to the Super Bowl. Do the Pats, their fans and rest of the football world consider their season a success? Not in Pats country. Why? Hubris. Why do people hate Pats? Because they have been hyped to be the second coming of the Roman Empire for the last several years. When they came into Heinz Field in '04 this dynasty thing hadn't caught hold. Now, anything short of sacking Carthage is deemed a 'failure'. Earlier in the decade it took a while before the realization hit that Champion teams like the Rams and Ravens had lost it.

Its possible I might be wrong. There are a lot of things the Pats can do to recover, and as others have mentioned, they have an easy schedule (in theory) next year.

But its not wishful thinking.

by RickVa on Feb 6, 2008 5:53 PM EST 0 recs

Follow up

I'll admit to being 'wishful' for the Patriots' quick demise. Couldn't happen to a more deserving bunch of arrogant pricks.

I would disagree with Steeler1275' s assertion that the Giants were uniquely capable of inflicting 'a punch in the mouth'. The Ravens and Eagles, two mediocre teams but with good defensive personnel and smart coordinators, did much the same with nearly the same end result. The Colts did it for three-plus quarters and came close. The Patriots in the second half of the season were not nearly the same dominant force they were in the first half, a reflection of opponents understanding what they needed to do to be effective against the Pats. It's not unreasonable to assume the other AFC East teams will retool or build their teams with that approach in mind. Certainly it's what Mike Tomlin has in mind for the Steelers (although not specifically as a Patriot killer). The Patriots will have to keep evolving in different ways to stay ahead of defenses, which they are certainly capable of doing, but it won't be easy and it almost certainly won't be done again with the same ruthless efficiency they exhibited the first half of this past season.

With that more physical approach by opponents comes the increasing possibility of Brady suffering his first major injury. Just ask the Cowboys and 49ers how much their fortunes changed after Aikman and Young suffered concussions. Bradshaw's injuries played no small part in the Steelers' post-dynasty decline. There is no quicker way for a great team to go in the toilet than to lose its all-star QB.

But I'll not wish an injury on anyone. It will be interesting to see where the Patriots are in three years. They might win another Super Bowl in that time, they might not. It's very difficult to do. But barring Brady injury or significant Spygate 2 sanction, I don't see them being a .500 team for at least that long.

by steeler lifer on Feb 6, 2008 6:35 PM EST 0 recs

I agree

I guess I should have clarified one thing by using the term 'decline'. Belichek is too ruthless and unsentimental to allow them to become the Dolphins or the Rams. The Seahawks would be more like it. A team that makes the playoffs a lot, but occasionally doesn't and rarely reaches beyond the divisional round. That would mean decline. Anything happens to Brady, even a relatively 'minor' injury that might cause him to miss a couple of games would accelerate matters. They may reacquire super elite status, but with a largely different cast of characters, as the group who were the foundation of the '03-'04 run ages or otherwise moves on.

by RickVa on Feb 6, 2008 7:24 PM EST 0 recs

Patriots* Vs Vick

The Patriots* cheated at a game. They illegally filmed some hand signals. Goodell didn't let them "slide" he fined them 750K and a #1 draft pick.

The "field hand" as you put it, Michael Vick is no slave. He made millions and it was recently ruled that he could keep a 14 million dollar signing bonus. That doesn't sound like any "field hand" I ever read about. Vick made more money than Bill Belicheat*.

Michael Vick is a scum bag who tortured and killed dogs and deserves every ounce of venom from Goodell, PETA, 5020 and any other dog or animal owner or human. Double standard? How can you compare the cruelty that Vick and his cohorts showed these animals to the taping of hand signals and formations?

RickVA I usually agree with everything you write. Not on this post. In my opinion the Patriots* will win 5 or 6 games in their division next year and be a 1 or 2 seed in the AFC playoffs. With Brady and that O line they are in every game. While every team they play will be fired up to play the Patriots* very few will have the talent on the front 7 to put Brady on his ass enough to affect his rhythm and beat the team from NE. I surely hope the Steelers are one of them.

When You Run The Ball Good Things Happen

by 5020 on Feb 6, 2008 9:48 PM EST 0 recs

goodell pats

yes he did let them slide. they were caught cheating and there was no effective punishment. the money we know is not serious and although a draft pick is big its an iffy situation which had no effect on the season. a 15 yard facemask against them when they were playing the ravens would have had a bigger effect then this punishment handed to them. furthermore vick, pacman and all the other criminals
were off field behavior, and pacman hadnt been convicted of anything yet was suspended a season. i think its analogous to steroids or the like which we know the nfl's policy even though it doesnt necessarily give an advantage.

by bohur on Feb 6, 2008 11:28 PM EST up 0 recs

Your Logic

Look bohur I don't like the Pats* or Belicheat* and have had a continuous smile since they lost the SB but I can't agree that Goodell let them slide in comparison to Vick or Pacman.
I am not sure what neighborhood you live in but 750K is not chump change. Neither is a number 1 pick. If the Steelers were to lose their number 1 next year because of some transgression I believe you would squeal like one of Michael Vick's electrocuted dogs. You know you would.
By your logic Belicheat* should have absorbed a year suspension (Pacman) or indefinite suspension (Vick) for his dubious actions. I just can't see how killing dogs or leading a near riot in which another human being was shot and crippled for life is equal to what the Pats* did. True, the violations of Vick and Pacman were off the field incidents but dude, they were heinous acts! How do they compare with running tape? I think Goodell was wrong to destroy the tape but he says the tapes he saw gave the Pats* no advantage. Heck dude, they went 18-0 without the tape.
Maybe Goodell should have compared Belicheats* actions to steroids and suspended him 4 games. I would not have a problem with that. But comparing what Belicheat* did to what Vick and Pacman did is absurd. The Pats* cheated at a GAME. Pacman and his crew stole money from exotic dancers that rendered their services and then left a man crippled. Vick tortured and killed animals. Have you ever owned a pet?

When You Run The Ball Good Things Happen

by 5020 on Feb 7, 2008 12:59 AM EST up 0 recs

goodell

i wasnt trying to say he should receive the same punishment as them. however i think belicheck should have at least been suspended for some period of time. also the owner of the pats is a billionare so yes 750 is chump change. my main point is that there was no correlation between their act of cheating and the punishment. there was no immediate effect. furthermore pacman was suspended not for that brawl but for possibly violating his parole by having guns in his home.

by bohur on Feb 7, 2008 11:32 AM EST up 0 recs

My Feelings, Exactly

http://www.theonion.com/content/news/patriots_season_perfect_for_rest

by rushthequarterback on Feb 7, 2008 9:29 AM EST 0 recs

funny stuff

Great link there rush. Even funnier is this story on Jessica Simpson's plot to destroy the Cowboys' season http://www.theonion.com/content/news/jessica_simpson_completes

by steeler lifer on Feb 7, 2008 10:05 AM EST up 0 recs

belichick

regarding suspension, by the league's own precedent he should have been suspended at least a few games. a Cowboys coach was caught with HGH......now mind you, he was not DISTRIBUTING OR SELLING HGH IN ANYWAY.......the COACH was taking it for himself. (allegedly to treat a disease he had, or impotency, there were rumors either way).....regardless, the coach was taking HGH, which I can assure you did not help his coaching performance in anyway. yet the NFL suspended him 5 games. belichick actually cheated the game........and wasn't suspended at all. they did not follow their own precedent. back to the Pat's next year. i think the mental side is being underrated. they will be hurt by this loss. i think it would hurt more to win every game but lose at the very last minute of the last game, than to lose every single game. it'll be alot easier for the Dolphins to say 'we can improve no problem' next year, as opposed to the Patriots, as they had a nearly perfect season. they will fall. 12 wins at best for the Pats next year.

by TheMostViolentTeam on Feb 7, 2008 12:55 PM EST 0 recs