Bumped. steeler lifer brings the goods again.

-Blitz-

About a month ago I did some speculation on how the 08 Draft picture looked for the Steelers. Mostly it was for self-education, trying to familiarize myself with good prospects and how the Steelers may approach the draft. It quickly became apparent that this will be a very challenging draft year for the Steelers. They have only six picks and a relatively late draft position. They need to focus on big bodies for the trenches (as per Tomlin's post-season assessment), but also on guys with speed and toughness who can contribute on special teams.

That is still the situation, but some things have changed. With the results of the combine, the start of free agency and a firmer consensus about the best prospects, I decided to go through the assessment of draft prospects again to see what the Steelers might now do. Granted, there is a lot that can and will change before the draft. This is idle speculation on the type of players who seem to fit the Steelers.

As before, I did a draft scenario with the current picks, and one scenario that included a prospective trade. While many fans want the Steelers to trade down, this is not easy to do. Someone else has to want to move up, to grab a player that makes enough of a difference to compensate for the loss of two or three picks. For the Steelers to move down, someone else has to be in love with a prospect that has been bypassed by 22 other teams. But it could happen in regard to projected second-half first-rounders like SS Kenny Phillips, CB Aqib Talib, WR James Hardy, WR Devin Thomas, LB Dan Connor, DT Kentwan Balmer and QB Brian Brohm. They're all excellent prospects who are not likely to be available past No. 40 overall.

In this case I finally settled on Minnesota as the trading partner. They have a total of 10 picks, including an extra third-rounder. They are an improving team with a few specific needs. With a few judicious impact picks, they could compete for a division title. So the deal goes down as the Steelers sending their first-rounder to Minnesota for picks in the second round (No. 47), third round (73) and fourth round (113-plus for compensatory picks). Believe it or not, that still leaves Minnesota owing Pittsburgh a mid-fifth-round pick (according to the Value Chart), but it seems so unreasonable that I put it over to 2009. Plus, being nice to the Vikings might make it more likely to happen.

As before, I used NFL Draft Scout and NFL Draft Countdown as the two main sources of player ranking. I went through other mock drafts to make sure I wasn't totally out of line with general consensus, thus excluding many guys who might very well be available on the real draft day. I tried to be reluctantly pessimistic rather than cautiously optimistic about the availability of Player X.

I identified team needs as follows:

1. Center
   
2. OT
   
3. Defensive End
   
4. Special Teams
   
5. Wide Receiver

Since my first list, we've added a backup RB-Returner in Mewelde Moore and a backup LB-special teamer in Keyaron Fox. I think we might still sign a backup DL or perhaps a Center once the Starks situation is resolved. I don't think we need to draft a RB or return guy. Our OT situation is uncertain but the two incumbents are returning, possibly along with the top backup. We might not need an OT to step in right away. At center, there is still no obvious upgrade, that's why it's my No. 1 need. The No. 4 priority of Special Teams concentrates on LBs, Safeties and DEs (a la Brett Kiesel). Wide Receiver makes the list because I think there is a good possibility Ced Wilson will be cut.

One other note. There will be a number of references to guys testing well at the Combine or their Pro Days. The Combine is often criticized because it seems to get more attention than it deserves, but it's an important evaluation. The Combine doesn't tell you if a guy is a good football player. Teams can see that on game film. But it does give teams an idea of a player's athleticism, preparation skills and mental acuity. Those factors help determine the extent to which a player can improve. All of these guys will have to improve to be successful at the NFL level.

MOCK DRAFT A
(Using Current Picks)

1. OG-OT Branden Albert (Virgina, 6-6, 309)
   
2. OC Mike Pollak (Arizona, 6-4, 301)
   
3. DL Red Bryant (Texas A&M, 6-4, 318)
   
4. LB Gary Guyton (Georgia Tech, 6-2, 245)
   
5. DE Brian Johnston (Gardner-Webb, 6-5, 276)
   
6. FS Corey Lynch (Appalachian St, 6-1, 204)

Comments: There is a reasonable chance that Albert will still be available. This is a best-case scenario. He's an outstanding prospect who could play guard at a high level or move to OT and play at a high level. The only negative is that he is a Junior who might need a year before being ready to play full-time.  If we're going to draft a center, we might as well draft the best prospect, Pollak. He won't be the Best Player Available, which makes this a risky pick, but he will be given every opportunity to play right away, perhaps before Albert. Red Bryant is a huge DT who did fairly well at the Senior Bowl and showed unexpected quickness and athleticism at the Combine. He could spell Kiesel right away, provide flexibility for 4-man fronts and perhaps even figure as a NT in the future. Gary Guyton has played primarily OLB. Good size, excellent speed, ST coverage prospect. DE Brian Johnston is a small school DE who has just enough size, dominated at his level and tested very well, displaying exceptional speed-strength numbers. He's a ST contributor and long-term D-line project. This pick is probably dependent on whether the Steelers sign a FA D-lineman before the draft. If we do, it's overkill to pick another here and could also affect how the team would view the earlier selection of Bryant. Like Johnston, FS Corey Lynch also played at a lower level at Appalachian State but was outstanding in his post-season all-star game and is considered a ST ace. This draft meets most of the needs, but is also risky with a reach at center, an underachieving college DL (Bryant) and two small-school picks.

MOCK DRAFT B
(Current Picks, No top O-lineman Available)

1. DT Kentwan Balmer (North Carolina, 6-5, 308)
   
2. OT Duane Brown (Virgina Tech, 6-4, 315)
   
3. ILB Philip Wheeler (Georgia Tech, 6-2, 248)
   
4. OL Jeremy Zuttah (Rutgers, 6-4, 303)
   
5. WR Adarious Bowman (Oklahoma St, 6-3, 223)
   
6. FS Corey Lynch (Appalachian St, 6-1, 204)

Comments: My feeling at this point is that all of the top five O-lineman (Long, Clady, Williams, Otah and Albert) will be off the board when the Steelers pick. The team choice then is to pick the highest-rated trench prospect (Balmer) or reach for the next best OT (Cherilus, Nicks, Baker or Collins, none of whom figure to be available late in the second round). My choice is Balmer. He has excellent size, quickness and is a good fit for 3-4 DE. The second-round pick is OT Brown, an athletic LOT candidate. In the third round, presuming Pollak is off the board, we could reach for a different center but I'd rather pick a guy like ILB Philip Wheeler. He could be groomed as James Farrior's replacement while contributing immediately on ST. He's an in-the-box, attacking type of LB with great pass-rush and tackling skills. A nice future complement at ILB with the speedy Timmons. Having chosen Brown over Pollak in the second round, the Steelers have to try to find a center prospect later in the draft. Jeremy Zuttah played OT at Rutgers but is projected as a guard. Great strength and speed and says he is willing to move to center. He might be a better gamble than projected late-round centers like Fernando Velasco. Big WR Adarious Bowman would be a value consideration if he continues dropping down the draft charts. Lynch is for special teams and also provides depth at a position the Steelers have been seeking help this off-season. Overall, this is a somewhat risky draft that has good athletes at key positions, but also fails to provide an obvious answer at Center.

MOCK DRAFT C
(Trade Down with Minnesota)

2. OT Carl Nicks (Nebraska, 6-6, 325)
   
2. OC Mike Pollak (Arizona, 6-4, 301)
   
3. DL Red Bryant (Texas A&M, 6-4, 318)
   
3. WR Jordy Nelson (Kansas, 6-3, 217)or WR Jerome Simpson (Coastal Carolina, 6-2, 200)
   
4. FB Owen Schmidt (West Virginia, 6-2, 247)
   
4. LB Gary Guyton (Georgia Tech, 6-2, 245)
   
5. DE Brian Johnston (Gardner-Webb, 6-5, 276)
   
6. FS Corey Lynch (Appalachian St, 6-1, 204)

Comments: With the Vikings' pick at No. 47, the Steelers have a decent shot at getting an OT out of a group that includes Nicks, Gosder Cherilus, Sam Baker and Anthony Collins. Baker has slid down the charts and Nicks might also, after getting arrested recently on campus. Duane Brown is also a consideration. The other benefits of the trade show up in the third and fourth rounds. With extra picks, the Steelers can jump on a quality biggish WR like Jordy Nelson or Jerome Simpson. Nelson is a solid prospect with size and decent speed while Simpson is faster, has decent size, great hands and athletic ability. He played at a lower level and was under the radar until shining in post-season play and the Combine. With an extra pick in the fourth round the Steelers could go for monster FB Owen Schmidt rather than a third OL candidate. At the very least Schmidt could contribute immediately on special teams and short-yardage situations. By going after a WR in the third round, the Steelers have to look at a LB a little bit later so Guyton fits in, while Johnston is a good complement to Bryant while contributing on ST and learning DE under Aaron Smith and Kiesel. This draft scenario actually gives Pittsburgh one less choice (in the fifth round) than they would be owed from Minnesota. Overall, this draft would meet almost all of our immediate and longer term needs at key positions

CONCLUSIONS

The big question is what the Steelers will do if all the top O-line prospects are off the board by No. 23. Do they reach for the next best OT prospect (probably Cherilus), take the best athlete athlete (perhaps Balmer, CB Aqib Talib or WR James Hardy) or trade down. I doubt they would reach for an OT in the first round if a better DL prospect is still available. There's no doubt in my mind that trading down could produce a better draft than by standing pat, even with picking a premium OL like Albert. Another problem is at Center. This is considered a poor crop of centers, but taking a guy with conversion potential seems like a bigger gamble than taking a guy who at least played the position fairly well in college.