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Quantitative Analysis of Top 10 RBs in NFL history

WolfPackSteelersFan emailed me last week to let me know he had been working on a piece on the greatest RBs of all time. I was excited to see it, but a touch apprehensive, since anytime you try to do a 'best-of' argument across generations in sports, things get tricky and generally don't provide many concrete answers. Furthermore, knowing he was busy with work, kids, etc., I wasn't expecting an entry as comprehensive and well researched as the one he provided. But I was blown away. No new fancy metrics or debatable opinion monguring from him. WolfPack has simply done the exhaustive research and allowed the numbers to speak for themselves as best they can. Contributions like these are exactly why BTSC continues to be the best Steelers fan site on the internet. As always, feel free to email me with any quesitons, suggestions, or thoughts on a post you would like me to do, or that you would like to do yourself and share with the group. Many, many thanks to WolfPackSteelersFan, a great guy and great member of our community.

-Blitz-

A couple of weeks ago in one of the diaries, we had some discussion on the greatest RBs of all time. I thought it would be cool to discuss the top 10 or 20, and we did have some discussion. There were some shared opinions about who was the greatest, but there were also plenty of questions left unanswered. It got me interested in doing a quantitative analysis of the greatest RBs in NFL history. I wanted to include more than ten, but there is so much data that I decided to restrict it to the top 10 in career rushing yards.  

Perhaps in another installment, I will look at adding some RBs in the top 10 in yards per game but not in the top 10 in career yards, like Terrell Davis, LaDainian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis and Jamal Lewis. I also thought of looking at the top 10 leaders in yards per attempt, but every player is a QB except Bo Jackson. That may be enough to merit his inclusion in the analysis, but again, perhaps next time.

Anyway, on to the current analysis. I decided to look at this from the standpoint of the players' impact on a per game and per touch basis. In the table below, I have included each player's rushing and receiving statistics to get an idea of their total impact on the game. So, I looked at yards rushing and receiving per game and per attempt/reception, rushing and receiving touchdowns per game, fumbles per game, and total (rushing and receiving combined) yards and touchdowns per game. The reason that I looked at it this way was that I thought this would give the best idea of each player's impact on a single game.

One thing we all agree on is that it is very difficult to compare players, regardless of their position, across generations. Defenses have changed, offensive strategies have changed. Conditioning programs, RB workloads, etc have changed. Everything's evolved, and some have been in ways that are beneficial to a RBs production, and others the opposite. The best we can do is take as broad a look as possible at some numbers and see who excelled in the most possible relevant categories. Did they fumble a lot? Were they multi-dimensional and provide a pass-catching threat? Could their teams rely on them to punch it in for a score? Let's take a look.

I also wanted to rank each of these players according to each statistic.  The results are shown in the following table. Every category is sorted by highest value, except for fumbles per game.  It is sorted so that the player with the fewest fumbles/game is the highest ranking.

Finally, I wanted to find a way to aggregate the rankings of these players to give a simpler way of grading their overall impact throughout their careers. So, I summed the rankings that they had for each category and then divided by the number of categories (9) in this analysis. The resulting overall average ranks are given below.

Based on this analysis...

Jim Brown is the winner as greatest RB of all time. Of the nine categories that I looked at, he ranked first in six of them, and was in the top four in eight of the nine. The next three players, Sanders, Faulk and Payton, were the only others to make the top 4 in six of the nine categories. Not surprisingly, Faulk shined in the receiving stats, ranking number 1 in receiving yards per game and TDs per game. But, Brown also shined in receiving stats, ranking in the top 4 of each of the receiving stats. That is surprising, considering the era in which he played.

Before I wrap up, I did want to point out a few other areas that I found interesting:

  • The one category in which Jim Brown ranked low, fumbles/game, is dominated by the oldest players. This leads me to believe that there may have been some rule changes that reduced the circumstances likely to cause a fumble. For example, I'm not sure when the rule that the ground can't cause a fumble was instituted. Or, the rule that a play is blown dead when forward progress is stopped may not have been in place yet. Or, maybe there has just been much more emphasis on protecting the ball than there used to be.
  • Marcus Allen's numbers are probably skewed down due to the apparent vendetta that Al Davis had against him.  His last several years with the Raiders, he could have been a starter somewhere. They could have traded him after drafting Bo Jackson. But, for much of his physical prime, he was sitting on the bench.
  • Curtis Martin almost never fumbled.
  • Emmitt Smith ranks surprisingly low on most of these categories, but he was a TD machine.
  • Jerome Bettis also ranks low in most categories, but we also all know that his last 3 seasons, he was primarily a goal line back. If I recall correctly, he once had a line something like 4 or 5 carries for 2 yrds and 3 TDs. That also skewed his rushing yards/game and yards/attempt. But, I also felt that having him on the team was a valuable asset. He could no longer be the feature back, but when Duce or Willie, or both, went down, he could step in a give us a 100 yard game when we needed it.

Of course, no analysis of football players can be truly scientific, because each player had different supporting casts, but I would have to say that I have newfound respect for Jim Brown. True, he didn't block, and he didn't apologize for it. But, his numbers are sufficiently above the others that it is very hard to argue that any running back was better. And, he did it on a team that won multiple championships, which tells me that played to win and make his team better, not just for the personal accolades.

So, what do you guys think? Did I leave out any significant stat?

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jim brown
Also played the least amount of years, which is amazing

by bereadawg on Apr 14, 2008 3:18 AM EDT   0 recs

True
The only issue with that is that he didn't have any years of diminishing abilities factored into his per game and per touch stats. The same could be said of Barry Sanders, but all of the other players had at least a couple of years at the end of their careers where they were no longer as dominant as they had been.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Apr 14, 2008 8:47 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Dickerson
I'm surprised how low Dickerson was on this list. Going in I would have rated him a bit higher but he was really hurt by fumbles and receiving. I don't remember much of his career, especially the early years, but was there any particular reason that he didn't get many receptions. My guess, just looking at stats, is that he was already so overworked with carries that they might have given him a break by not using him out of the backfield much.

by cgolden on Apr 14, 2008 8:11 AM EDT   0 recs

Based on his fumbles
he probably had the worst hands of these players, which would explain his lack of receptions. It would have been interesting to see his drops, but I don't think that stat was included. I got this data from http://www.pro-football-reference.com/. In the case of the TDs/game and fumbles/game, I just divided the career totals by the number of games.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Apr 14, 2008 8:52 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

how bout blocking
and picking up blitz's which is as important as any stat you posted.

by Terry on Apr 14, 2008 8:41 AM EDT   0 recs

blocking
While everyone realizes that blocking is an important aspect of a running backs abilities, there's no way to quantify that is terms of stats.

by cgolden on Apr 14, 2008 8:51 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Thanks cgolden
I was just going to say the same. Unfortunately, blocking is not a statistic that is kept. As I mentioned in the analysis, Jim Brown was notorious for not blocking, but he said it wasn't his job. I would disagree, and I know that I've heard Mike Ditka say that he can't call Brown the greatest RB of all time for that reason. Ditka, of course, is partial to Payton. Other than Brown, and maybe Dickerson, I'm pretty sure that the rest on this list were good, if not great, blockers. The era that they played in required it.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Apr 14, 2008 8:57 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

thats why I don't consider Brown the best back
although I do consider him the best runner.

by Terry on Apr 14, 2008 11:18 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The Bus...
He averaged 7 yards a game in receptions?  Amazing, I don't really ever remember him being involved in the passing game.  Did we really run any screens with him?

Loved the Bus and the energy and lift he provided for the Steelers for many years.  If we were talking powerbacks which is an undefinable genre I'm sure he'd be 1 or 2, but amongst the rest of them he's not quite the same class.

by Chicago Steeler on Apr 14, 2008 10:23 AM EDT   0 recs

Bus's receiving
His receiving yards/game were slightly higher than his yards/reception, so he averaged about one reception per game in his career. That sounds about right for Whisenhunt's offense. Pound the ball, pound the ball, then pull out a screen on a 3rd and 8 or 9 to get that key conversion to milk another 2 minutes off of the clock.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Apr 14, 2008 10:38 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

nice job
Excellent read. On the decline of fumbles, both recovered and loss, this is very real. And one could go on for a quite a bit on just this topic. The reasons are definitely do to rule changes- unfortunately even with the wonders of the internet, there are few resources dedicated to explaining all the yearly minor tweaks and major nfl rule changes- as well as changes to the ball itself.
The 1986 dual impact of fumbling out of bounds being returned to the offensive player as well as instant replay are likely culprits. Instant replay I would geuss has overturned quite a few fumbles that the grown caused.
Also, (nothing to back this up) the larger player size may mean larger hands that can better secure the football.

Plus the retirement of Warren Moon.

by vherub on Apr 14, 2008 11:13 AM EDT   0 recs

Thanks
I thought the fumbles stat looked like there was some trend there. I certainly don't remember Payton being known as a fumbler (or even Dickerson for that matter), but Dickerson had over 10 fumbles for each of his first 4 years. Marcus Allen had 14 fumbles his second year, but he never had fumbling problems any year after that. I figured a big part of it was the beginning of blowing a play dead when forward progress was stopped.  Because before that, if the defense could mob a guy and hold him up, they could just rip the ball away after a few seconds.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Apr 14, 2008 11:33 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

In Defense of the Bus
I know this isn't far to the other RBs on this list b/c as we've already said most of these guys had declining years at the end of thier careers, but this is afterall a Steelers blog.

If you look at Bettis' career in two parts with part one being as a starter (93-01) his numbers are a little bit better:

YPG 80   YPA 4.1  TD/G .41

The latter years of his career (02-05) really dragged down every category except for touchdowns:

YPG 50   YPA 3.5   TD/G .68

By no means do those numbers loft him up into the elite category but for what he was, Bettis was a really good back and a great Steeler.

by cgolden on Apr 14, 2008 11:25 AM EDT   0 recs

good job
Hey guys, if you there's people who you think might enjoy seeing some of these numbers, fans of other teams included, send them the link. I say that not trying to get traffic but because I think it's cool to actually have all the data in front of us for these great RBs.

by Blitzburgh on Apr 14, 2008 11:26 AM EDT   0 recs

Thanks again
Hey Blitz, I just wanted to thank you again for helping get this in, and for all of the high praise. I appreciate it.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Apr 14, 2008 11:38 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

you got it senor
Turned out well. If you want to keep going with it in the future, let me know and I can maybe help find some of the other harder to find data.

by Blitzburgh on Apr 14, 2008 11:45 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Ok thanks
I will probably work slowly, but if I am working on anything and can't find some data I want, I'll let you know.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Apr 14, 2008 11:55 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Great analysis...
I love the work put in here, to be able to rank these players in these categories is sweet for comparison's sake.  I don't think you left out anything that could be counted as a statistic towards an All-Time RB comparison.  Sacks allowed would be however I don't think anyone compiles that stat for RBs, although it would be helpful.  I wish there was something for Broken Tackles or 20+ yard carries, I think those are decent statistics although probably impossible to find for the older backs.  nice job though, I wish I could've seen Jim Brown play!  He just had to be beastly, 5.2 ypc average is just ridiculous.  Did people NOT know how to tackle then or what?

by Mikey on Apr 14, 2008 11:38 AM EDT   0 recs

This was great Stuff
Thx for the hard work you put in. I agree it gets tough to discuss best of all time over Eras. The most common thing I hear people say if you took this current player and took him back in time he would dominate the sport. Well thats how I see Jim Brown. He was next generations running back playing in his generation. Personally I think if he played today he may not have the same numbers, but would still be on the list.

Side question: anyone know when the combine started, and if any data is out there. I would love to see like Swan's 40 time.

by SteelBuckeye on Apr 14, 2008 8:09 PM EDT   0 recs

As for
best of all time. Personally I lean towards Barry and Walter. I could be wrong, but Jim Brown also played on some really good Browns teams. Thats why I never considered Emmit the best. Most of his career was on a team with a great OL, QB, and WR. Barry played on bad teams his whole career. I can't count how many games he took negative yardage as he got hit taking the handoff, but would still end the game with 100 yards. I always wondered what his career would have been like behind a Standard Steeler OL. Don't know enough about the Bears, but I think Walter also played on some really bad Bears team until the end of his career.

by SteelBuckeye on Apr 14, 2008 8:33 PM EDT   0 recs

Agreed
I guess the thing that really jumped out at me, on top of his rushing numbers, were Jim Brown's receiving numbers. They were really comparable to just about any RB from a later era. But, I agree, I had always thought that as well, that Jim Brown was really like a 80s/90s era RB playing in the 50s and 60s. I also do believe that Barry Sanders would have had over 20,000 yards rushing if he and Emmitt switched places.  I remember that in the year that he rushed for over 2000 yards, he actually started the year horribly, with only around 50 yards after 2 games.  Then, he ran for around 2000 in the next 14 games.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Apr 15, 2008 10:40 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

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