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Quarterback Peak Years

Quarterbacks Peak Years As was requested on here, I will take a look at some HOF QBs and QBs still playing and try to find a range of ages that Quarterbacks usually hit there peak. This will primarily be statistical analysis using Rating numbers as well as other numbers.

I will look at:

Montana
Marino
Young
Brady
Manning
Elway
Favre

Star-divide

Joe Montana:

-Widely recognized as the greatest ever. Never threw more than 4000 yards and threw more than 30 Touchdowns only once. Had a rating of 100+ 3 times in his career at ages 28, 31, and 33. However his playoff success at ages 32-34 was unmatched through out NFL history posting a rating of 100 or more in 8 consecutive playoff games. During this period, he threw 22 touchdowns to 2 interceptions.

Peak years: 32-34

Marino:

-First two years in the NFL were better than any other QB's first two in NFL history. Rookie year he posted a record 96 rating for a rookie while starting 9 games. His next year was even more record breaking while setting an all time record for highest rating in a single season of 108, he also threw 48 touchdowns, and 5084 yards.

-Best playoff game ever was the AFCCG against the Steelers in 1985. At age 23, he had a 135 rating for the game while throwing for 421 yards on only 32 attempts.

-After age 25, he only threw for 30 touchdowns once while throwing 4000 yards 3 more times.

Peak year: 23

Peyton Manning

-Started for the Colts right out of the gate on a horrible Colts team. He became the best Pure Passer in the NFL in 2003 at age 27 where he recorded a 99 Rating. When its all said and done his next 3 years will be considered his peak. From 2004-2006(Ages 28-30), he lead the league in rating each year with 121, 104, and 101.

-He clearly could still be in his peak, however his numbers have dropped every year since 2004, signaling the end of his peak years.

Peak Years: Ages 28-30

Brett Favre

-The recently retired Brett Favre peaked at an early age. First 3 years(Ages 22-24) in the NFL, threw 37 touchdowns and 37 interceptions(Did not play first year).

-Next 3 years at ages 25-28, he threw a combined 145 touchdowns to only 56 interceptions posting ratings of 90, 95, 99 and 92. This would prove to be his peak years.

-Won one superbowl at age 27. This playoff series he had a rating of 107 in each of his 3 games.

-Also went to 3 Pro Bowls in consecutive years between ages 32 and 34, another great stretch.

Peak Years: Ages 25-28

Steve Young

-Steve Young had a weird situation. He was playing behind HOF QB Joe Montana from 1987-to 1990, but at the same time his first 6 years he still got some good playing time to prepare him for when Montana left. However it wasn't until 1992 where he took over full time. He was already 31 years old. His first 4 years as starter(Ages 30-33), he had ratings of 101, 107, 101, and 112(Previous Record). This would prove to be his peak years.

-As a side note, if you extend farther, Young's next 4 years were almost as outstanding, having Ratings of 92, 97, 104 and 101.

-Also went to many playoff games. Best game in the playoffs came in his only superbowl against the Chargers where he had a rating of 134 and threw 6 touchdowns to no interceptions. This was at age 33.

-Should also note, he started 14 games in his second year in the NFL for Tampa Bay where he was horrible, throwing 8 touchdowns and 13 interceptions for a 65 rating.

Peak Years: Ages 30-33

Tom Brady

--The 3 time Superbowl champion up until this past year clearly has no peak. His numbers were average to good throughout his whole career. He has had no bad years or no off the chart years. Ratings up until last year were 86, 85, 85, 92, 92, and 87. As you can see, very consistant.

-Has never thrown more than 14 interceptions in a year while (Before this year)never throwing more than 30 touchdowns. Also had a YPA above 7 only twice in his first 7 years.

-With last years 50 touchdown display, I believe he is just entering his peak. With Randy Moss, I expect him to hit 40 touchdowns next year with another 100+ rating. When Moss leaves, his peak will probably end and return to where he was before Moss arrived. A very safe and consistent QB without huge numbers. He entered last year at age 30.

Peak Years: Age 30-?

Elway

-Has a completely different story. He was not a very good passer until his last 4 years in the league where he won back to back super bowls. Some interesting numbers - Only threw more than 20 touchdowns once in his first ten years. Never threw 4000 yards until his 11th year(Age 33), which was his only 4000 yard season. Highest rating was 83 until his 11th season

-Peaked in his 11th season at age 33. The next 6 years(Age 33-38) he threw 20 touchdowns in every year but one. During his peak, he also never threw more than 14 interceptions while posting ratings between 85 and 92 every year.

Peak Years: Ages 33-38

As you can see of these Quarterbacks, there are many different ranges for peak years. Favre and Marino were better early on while Montana, Young, especially Elway, and (now) Brady had better numbers at an older age. Manning is in the middle as he peaked late 20s.

As a side note, I only did QBs since 1980 as the passing game has transformed into much higher ratings and touchdowns.

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Good stuff
Jason, that was some good stuff.  Thanks for putting that together!  A couple of comments from me:

First, I think Elway's improvement is directly attributable to having Mike Shanahan as head coach.  I know there are many Dan Reeves fans out there, but I have always felt that Reeves was one of the reason Elway underperformed.  It really looked like Elway was done after Reeves was fired, but Shanahan resurrected his career.

Second, Favre's decline is also directly attributable to Mike Holmgren leaving.  Holmgren did a great job of coaching him to limit his errors and actually read defenses.  His improvement the last couple of years coincided with Mike McCarthy's hire, and I believe McCarthy was a Holmgren assistant in Green Bay.

It's interesting that four of the seven had their peaks under West Coast offensive coaches.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Apr 8, 2008 10:27 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Types of QBs
Great stuff... I think you could argue that there are two different styles of quarterbacks, talent and brains.  The talents will probably peak early as the film will be found to see where their weaknesses lie.  The brain qbs will just get better and better the more they play the game as long as their bodies cooperate.  

Guys like Montana and Manning play smart, and continue to evolve year by year.  Favre's last few seasons till 08 had turned into a circus where he was trying to force his talent to do things it could do 10 years ago.  

Big Ben's got crazy talent and he appears to rely on it a lot...  This past year he seemed to be getting smarter, but I really do hope he hits the books hard every year so we can really milk him into his late thirties.

by Chicago Steeler on Apr 9, 2008 10:56 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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