Heath Miller Is A Dangerous Weapon

by Blitzburgh on May 14, 2008 7:01 PM EDT

KC Joyner of ESPN.com, has put together a very interesting and well researched article ($) about the productivity of the NFLs TEs when they are flexed out wide rather than lining up along the line in the more traditional formation. To be included in his study, the TE needed to have had 48 pass attempts thrown his way. Also to be noted is the fact that Joyner includes:

"pass in the air" penalty attempts and yards (i.e., penalty yards from pass interference, defensive holding, illegal contact, etc., have been added to each player's receiving yardage stats).

Guess who led the pack in terms of yards per pass attempt when moved outside as a WR? That's right Heath Miller at 13.5 YPA. Let's be clear about what that means, even though it's of course obvious. Every time we threw the ball Heath's way when he was lined up out wide, we ate up nearl 1/7th of the football field - and that's factoring in attempts that weren't even completions! The next closest was Vernon Davis at 12.0 YPA, followed by Zach Miller at 10.3. Standout TEs Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates, Kellen Winslow and Jason Witten had averages of 8.2, 8.1, 8.7 and 8.1 YPA respectively.

Joyner then mentions that the top true WRs in the game usually finish the year with around a 10 YPA average. Joyner then adds that:

On an individual basis, Benjamin Watson and Heath Miller stand out because of their improvement in this category over their 2006 totals. Miller nearly doubled his 6.8 YPA and Watson added more than 2 yards to his 7.4 total.

Joyner then shows a table of the total % of passes thrown where the player was flexed out wide. Kellen Winslow had nearly 75% of his attempts come as a faux WR. Heath Miller, despite excelling in that role, is nowhere to be seen in the top 10 in terms of % of total balls thrown his way flexed out wide. Hmmm. Mr. Arians, you reading this?

Finally, Joyner includes the +/- ratio between yards per attempt as a WR and yards per attempt as a more traditional TE. Heath Miller had the second highest differential at 5.2. So, if Miller averaged 13.5 YPA slotted out wide, that means his YPA lined up on the line was only 8.3 YPA. Not a shabby number at all, but that's a substantial difference, no doubt.

I've said it over and over again: we need to get Heath Miller the ball more frequently. This guy is a special talent and we're drastically under-utilizing him. I was entrenched in my belief that we didn't throw him the ball enough in 2007, but now I am aware that when we did throw him the ball, we didn't even manage to do so in the formations/alignments/situations where he's most successful.

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I agree

that Heath should get more touches based upon his production. Unfortunately, he may get even less. Hopefully, Ben will have a few more mouths to feed this year (Sneed maybe, Mendenhall/Moore, Spaeth) and getting optimum use from all of his weapons will be his (and Arians’) greatest challenge.

by RickVa on May 14, 2008 7:16 PM EDT 0 recs

id like to see

Fewer ‘jump balls’ to Nate Washington, and many more safe passes to Heath. Id be just fine if his YPA and YPC wnet down if meant he had his number called more often. Part of this has to be on Big Ben. I’m not sure why he doesn’t throw Heath the ball more.

by Blitzburgh on May 14, 2008 7:20 PM EDT 0 recs

I think

less balls thrown to Nate is a good thing as well, but I think the addition of Sweed offsets a reduction for Nate and the release of Wilson.

My memory seems to beplaying tricks on me, but italways seemed as if a significant number of Heath’s catches came on plays on which Ben had to scramble – that big, wide target must be very iviting when you’re on the run. I’m a little too tired to figure out if that means anything right now.

by Desroko on May 14, 2008 10:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

Nate vs. Miller

I did some researching after reading these comments and now I couldn’t agree more. I’ve been a big Nate fan (and still am) but if Miller gets the ball more at his expense, so be it. According to Football Outsiders, only 53% of the passes throw Nate’s way were completed but 77% of the passes thrown Millers way were completed. There’s countless reasons why the difference is so high (safer passes, better hands, etc), but the fact is Millers percentage is one of the highest of any tight end and Washington is one of the worst among wide receivers. Washington’s yards per catch is only 3.5 yards better, but I think 24% higher completion percentage would cancel that out pretty quickly.

IT’S MILLER TIME

Revenge of the Birds

by cgolden on May 15, 2008 8:38 AM EDT up 0 recs

100%

agree we need to get the ball to Miller more. What I am curious about is the plays and the play calling. I wonder how many plays he is the number 1 or 2 read. What make Miller great to me is he is a blocking and receiving threat. A true Steeler TE. I know we have went over this time and time again, but I think the off line play is part of the cause. Miller plays off the line not a faux WR. At the end of last year we need him to help block, or maybe Big Ben never had a chance for him to get open off the line to throw to him. Just a thought,but again agree I want Ben to look for him more

by SteelBuckeye on May 14, 2008 7:22 PM EDT 0 recs

yea good pt

Kidna hard to justify moving him out wide when we need him chipping a pass rusher along the line. Ah, the good ol offensive line rears its ugly head again.

by Blitzburgh on May 14, 2008 7:26 PM EDT up 0 recs

+1

Yeah… At the end of the season Heath was my adopted offensive steeler and so my DVR and I spent much time watching his individual play. He was staying back in to block almost whenever Ben read a blitz.

He’s a stud, no doubt about it. But there’s only so much offense to go around. I’m ok with our wide outs getting lots of touches as they are special talents too. The area it bothers me is in the Red Zone. When we get inside the 20 I want the ball in 2 players hands, Heath and Hines. Hines just cause he’s a beast who fights for the endzone like no player I can think of. But Heath is so sure handed and hard to take down he’s money.

by Chicago Steeler on May 15, 2008 10:39 AM EDT up 0 recs

red zone

Perfectly said. Heath and Hines have the best hands on the team, IMO. When a scoring drive is on the brink, I want seven, not three. Let Ben zip the ball to sure-handed Heath or Hines instead of fade routes.

Revenge of the Birds

by cgolden on May 15, 2008 1:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

its almost as if

losing Eric Green put a sour taste in the mouths of the Steeler FO, cuz since utilizing him so well in the early 90s, the TE position has virtually disappeared as far as offensive production is concerned.

From 1990 to 1994, which includes one year where he was injured, he had 184 rec for 2529 yds and 22TDs.

In stark contrast to that is the combined totals of Breuner and Tuman – 178 rec for 1681 yds and 23 TDs, in careers spanning from 1995 to 2007.

What happened to the TE in the Pittsburgh offense?

by steelerark on May 14, 2008 7:32 PM EDT 0 recs

dunno

But it needs to change, especially since we have this rare talent. Other than the Patriots, who dont throw TONS to their TEs, I’m having a hard time thinking of a good offense that doesnt rely heavily on their TE – the best matchups are with them going up against LBs and safetys.

by Blitzburgh on May 14, 2008 7:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

Prediction

Heath Miller makes the Pro Bowl in 2008.

When You Run The Ball Good Things Happen

by 5020 on May 14, 2008 7:55 PM EDT 0 recs

god i hope youre right

Gonzalez has to slow down sometime…doesn’t he? Rivers can’t get the ball to Gates like Brees could, right WolfPack?? :)

Miller better have at least 50 catches next year. I don’t care where he’s lined up. First things first: lets just work him into the offense more.

by Blitzburgh on May 14, 2008 8:09 PM EDT up 0 recs

Haha :)

Gates’s numbers are pretty comparable with Rivers and Brees. Receptions, yards, and TDs down slightly with Rivers, but yards per reception up by over half a yard.

Speaking of Rivers, I saw this article recently.

I’ve been saving it for just such an occasion. :) It doesn’t sound like LT hates him so much. ;)

by WolfpackSteelersFan on May 14, 2008 8:31 PM EDT up 0 recs

rivers

Dude’s a competitor, no doubt. He showed that time and time again at NCState. I think the way he goes about competiting and talking can rub people the wrong way but I think if he gets it together this next couple of years, his style of leadership will be viewed differently than it is now.

by Blitzburgh on May 14, 2008 8:33 PM EDT up 0 recs

SBs

He wins a couple SBs, and all that talk about running his mouth too much goes away (except for AFC West non-Charger fans). Winning cures everything. But, yeah, he’s been known to talk more smack than most QBs I can remember.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on May 14, 2008 8:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

Pro Bowl

Other than Gates and Gonzalez, who be Miller’s competition? Dallas Clark? Definitely agree, though, it’s time to start getting Heath more involved. There’s no reason he can’t chip a pass rusher, then when the LBs drop back, find a hole in the zone and get 5-10 yards 3-5 times a game.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on May 14, 2008 8:34 PM EDT up 0 recs

Miller

by HinesField on May 15, 2008 3:47 PM EDT up 0 recs

Miller's competition?

Dude, the AFC has some pretty solid tight ends. Miller’s a damn good one who likely could make it if he got the freaking ball more.

But seriously, I think you could make solid arguments for Gates, Gonzalez, Miller, Watson, Clark and Winslow depending on the season. Depending on the season, even Todd Heap has proven to be solidly consistent.

by HinesField on May 15, 2008 3:51 PM EDT up 0 recs

True

I remembered Winslow after I posted that, but forgot to come back an update myself. I can’t remember Watson’s contributions, but I don’t think anyone was thinking he was their new answer to Ben Coates (100+ receptions one or two years in the 90s).

by WolfpackSteelersFan on May 15, 2008 4:04 PM EDT up 0 recs

Blitz

You may get your wish. I was thinking would Tomlin have drafted Miller? Then thought Miller was drafted for a power running game under Cowher. FWP wasn’t our starting running back when we drafted him. As we move to more of a 50/50 off, this is our offensive Coordinator’s 1st year. He is getting the feel for the players. Though I never see us having the high flying TE, or a pro bowl TE (as that is for off only TEs that are faux WR or on bad teams that show great numbers) The Vets may vote him in, and I think he needs to be there. I think Miller may have a break out year

by SteelBuckeye on May 14, 2008 9:03 PM EDT 0 recs

One reason why

Miller isn’t flexed wide as often or thrown sufficient balls is pretty obvious – too often we need that extra blocker along the line.

by Desroko on May 14, 2008 10:51 PM EDT 0 recs

want to point out

Blitz referenced it a little bit, however, from the +/- number one might believe that Miller isn’t very effective lined up tight to the formation. That isn’ t the case however. He just is outrageously good when “flexed”. His YPA for in tight (if you go thru that chart and do the math) would still be in the top 10, maybe top 5 for all tight ends. He is a stud. We can probably keep him for a good deal because he is undervalued.

by TheMostViolentTeam on May 14, 2008 11:29 PM EDT 0 recs

hat tip to TMVT for directing me to this article btw

tanks dawg

by Blitzburgh on May 14, 2008 11:56 PM EDT up 0 recs

thanks*

And yes, true, Heath is outstanding regardless of where he lines up. As you said, he’ just off the charts out wide.

by Blitzburgh on May 14, 2008 11:57 PM EDT up 0 recs

Miller's effectiveness is accentuated by not being a primary target

The pure pass catching tight ends in the league, like Gonzalez, Gates, Winslow, etc. are defensed as the primary passing target for their team. That is likely why their yards per attempt are less impressive. If Heath can get an extra couple yards per catch at the expense of 20 or 30 attempts over the course of the season, it is a good tradeoff. Don’t forget that he shares the field with the Steeler’s all time leading receiver, and the wideout who led the league in YPC average last season. Also, he is part of an offensive line that has allowed an undrafted free agent like Willie Parker to average over 1,300 yards rushing the past three seasons.

Beware what you wish for. Throwing more passes to Miller means less to the team’s wide receivers, and less effective line blocking for the run game. I think he is the best all round tight end in the game, at around 50 catches per season and 12 or more yards average. He may not have the eye popping numbers of the smaller, quicker, types, but he is at least as effective overall. The same holds true for Matt Spaeth. they won’t ever put up Kellen Winslow, Vernon Davis, Craig Keller numbers, but they are just as valuable.

by robert ethan on May 15, 2008 1:19 AM EDT 0 recs

legit points rob

Heath won’t ever get featured like Witten, Cooley, Gonzalez, Winslow or Gates but I still contend he needs his number called more often than it is. Thnk about the Browsn. THey have Edwareds, Jamal Lewis (1200+ yards), Jurevicious (who had 50 receptions to Holmes’ 52). Unless Mendenhall is incredible in 2008, I’d like to see us 1) run it a little less often in obvious running situations 2) throw fewer deep balls to Holmes and Nate and 3) mix in Heath 3-5 times more per game.

It’s just not acceptable in my mind that Heath has so many 1-3 catch games. He had 8 games last year where he only caught 1-3 balls. Since we’ve already seen the data that shows his incredible yards per attempt, that means we’re only looking his way a tiny nummber of times per game. It’s not like we’re going to him and being unsucessful. We’re just not looking his way. That has to change, even if just a bit.

by Blitzburgh on May 15, 2008 3:03 AM EDT up 0 recs

Heath and Hines not only have the best hands on the team, but they are the best at getting separation from defenders. As much as a I like Holmes, Sweed, and Washington, they’re more deep threats that quick, sharp route runners. With our OL, I’d almost rather see a more west-coast-ish type of passing game, featuring Ward, Miller, Mendenhall, and unless there’s a reason we don’t pass to him, Parker. More crossing routes, slants, and flat routes, less waiting for Washington to get open down field. If teams start hopping on the short routes, we have the speed and arm to burn them deep. Arians would never go for it, though.

by BadMaafala on May 15, 2008 1:58 PM EDT 0 recs

Will our Offense look like the '07 Patriots

In the role of:
Randy Moss = Santonio Holmes
Wes Welker = Hines Ward
Tom Brady = Ben Roethlisberger
Ben Watson = Heath Miller
Lawrence Maroney = Willie Parker
Kevin Faulk = Rashard Mendenhall
Donte Stallworth = Nate Washington/Limas Sweed

OL = All we have to do is protect of 3-4 seconds most of the time.

I think that our skill position players from top to bottom are better than what the Pats had last year. I would not want to be a D-Coordinator against our Offense. Way to many weapons. REEEEEEEEEEEEE Dick-U-Lus!!!

Tony - Stillers Fan in Raleigh

by Tshaff on May 15, 2008 3:51 PM EDT 0 recs

That would be cool

unless they choked in the SB like the Pats*.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on May 15, 2008 4:05 PM EDT up 0 recs

Heath

I found out in KC Joyner’s chat on ESPN.com last week, he OVERALL (any formation) had the highest YPA for Tight Ends. if i remember correctly it was around 9.5 or so.

by TheMostViolentTeam on May 20, 2008 4:58 PM EDT 0 recs