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What is an NFL Draft bust?

I here people talking about how Timmons is already a bust, how if he doesn't start this year he should be qualified as a bust. This is insane. I personally think it is bias against that particular player to call them a bust when they are 21 years old.

I will give a few examples of what a true NFL Draft bust is.

Most players enter the NFL ranging from 20 to 24 years old. Few players enter at 25 or older.

The age is very important, especially for first round picks. I will start off with Timmons. He was drafted at age 20, and was 21 for the entire 2007 season. He will be 22 in 1 week.

I believe it is always better to draft younger player because they have the potential to have a longer career. Not sure of the exact age of players who retire but lets say most LBers retire at 34.

Timmons would have 13 years in the NFL. If his first year as a starter is his third year, he will be a starter for 10 years. Lets say he gets drafted at age 24. He could play 10 years, and 7 as a starter. His first year as a starter will be age 27. He will have 3 years until he reaches "That age" of 30 years old where players decline. As of now, if Timmons does not start till next year, he will be 23 when he makes his first start. He has 7 years of playing time before reaching "that age". And 7 years starting is a very long time period to establish yourself, before declining after age 30.

Basically the point is, players who are younger like Timmons can afford to sit for a few years without being called a bust simply because they were so young and still have many years left. If he was 24, it would be extremely important that he starts by his second year at the latest.

Rashard Mendenhall: I love this pick even more because he, like Timmons, was only 20 when drafted. He will be 21 in June. He will probably be sitting behind Parker for a few years. If he was drafted at age 24, he might not get to start until age 27. And for a Running Back, that is a very bad age to begin starting. Think of Larry Johnson. Drafted at age 24, didn't start until age 26, and now he is 29 years old. He had a very promising career but was drafted at an older age and then sat for 2 years. Now he only has one year before he hits 30, and is already beginning to become injury prone(like last year).

So let me explain what a true bust is:

Ryan Leaf: Started his first game at 22 years old in 1998. Missed the next year, and started 9 games in the NFL in 2000, then finished his career in 01, where he started 3 games, then out of the NFL.

Akili Smith: Started 4 games his rookie year at age 24. Over the next 3 years he started 13 games, then was out of the NFL.

These are the two main examples of true busts.

Lets say a player is drafted in the 1st round and does basically nothing his first 5 years in the NFL. Then comes in during his 6th year and sets the league on fire for a few years. Would you classify him as a bust? I wouldn't because he still had a great career, just started off slow.

Example - James Farrior: Drafted 8th overall in 1997. Started 15 games his rookie year but his numbers were not all that great. He was a OLB at that point and recorded only 1.5 sacks his first year.His next 3 seasons, he started only 12 games and recorded 3 sacks total. In 2001, his last year with the Jets he turned around and started every game while getting 145 tackles, 3 FF and 2 INTs. He then came to the Steelers(6 years so far) and has been to the pro bowl and has been very good with us. Would you consider him a bust?

In short, a bust is someone who never accomplishes anything in the NFL, and is a very bad player.

Calling a guy a bust when he is just turning 22, because he hasn't seen the field at all because the two guys in front of him are solid-good(Foote, Farrior) is really foolish.

In my opinion you need to wait until he gets on the field as a starter. However, if he never becomes a starter then he would obviously become a bust(Example - Alonzo Jackson).

Another example could be Kellen Winslow. Some say if Timmons doesn't start this year, he is a bust. By that definition, then Winslow, one of the best TE's in the game should be considered a bust since he only played two games his first two years in the league. Of course he was injured those years, but that would be besides the point.

I personally believe some people just like throwing the word bust out there just because they don't think he was a good pick or just don't like him, without any real sense of what it actually means.

So what are your definitions of busts?

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definitions

what about a robert gallery, for example?? a tight end converted to right tackle, then moved to the left in college. then drafted by the black hole with ‘musical chair’ style line coaching…they put him on the right and he’s a sieve for two years. now he’s on the left and fargas rushes for 1000 behind him. so, a (in my opinion, entirely too) high draft pick (but that’s al davis for you) in a bad learning situation and out of his best played position. a bust or a series of unfortunate circumstances?

by tyronepower on May 7, 2008 8:47 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

If a player sticks around for 10+ years

he’s not a bust, IMO. He may have higher expectations, but even a high draft pick who becomes a quality backup is not a bust. Well, he is a bust for the team that drafted him, because top ten picks are getting Pro Bowler type money (or certainly starter money), and if that player can’t be a quality starter, he’s a bust according the salary structure. But, if he stuck around and played for 15 years, I wouldn’t call that a bust. Take Kerry Collins, a one-time number 1 overall pick. He certainly isn’t going to be considered one of the greats, but he’s passed for nearly 35,000 yards. If he gets any playing time at all this year, he should break the top 15 in career passing yardage. And, he’s been around for 13 years so far.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on May 7, 2008 9:13 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Heh, ironically...

...there’s a story about draft busts on USA Today:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/gallery/football/s080423_draftbusts/flash.htm?gid=489&aid=2418

Anyhow, people who say Timmons is a bust are crazy. If he’s been in the league one year and is still developing, how could he be a bust? By that standard, Tom Brady was a bust because he sat behind Bledsoe for a few years. It makes no sense.

If your team is drafting players because they desperately need to fill a gap right now, you’ve already got problems. Most teams should be, and are, thinking a bit longer-term.

by HinesField on May 7, 2008 10:16 PM EDT reply reply   1 recs

yea good pts Hines

Brady;s a bust!

Steelers fans are notoriously impatient when it comes to draft picks delivering. Hell, we don’t spend in free agency, so we’ve got to get production from our picks. But judging on year 1 from a 20 year old kid is ludicrus. I don’t think many of us are doing that.

by Blitzburgh on May 7, 2008 11:51 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

More Examples

Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Palmer. Perfect example of how age is very important when drafting a guy, mainly in the first round.

Roethlisberger was 22 when he threw his first pass. Palmer was 25. Palmer sat his first year when he was 24. And now he is 28, will be 29 in December.

This means that Ben has an advantage of who could end up being the better QB when it is all said and done, simply because he has the possibility of playing longer.

Terry Bradshaw: Forgot about him, but he was a true bust when he came in the NFL. His first two years he threw only 19 TDs and 46 INTs. His first 4 years he threw 41 TDs and 73 INTs. However he redeemed himself by winning 4 of the next 6 super bowls.

IMO a guy isn’t a bust until he leaves the NFL, giving him no chance to redeem himself

There are players who could be underachievers and not live up the potential.

I looked at our own Troy Edwards. His first year was great, and then fell off the map until he joined the Jags in 2003 where he had 35 catches then 50 catches the next year. Now I think he redeemed himself enough not to be labeled a true bust, but more of an under achiever that didn’t live up to his potential and draft pick.

by jason97673 on May 8, 2008 1:38 AM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Timmons

You definitely can’t call a guy a bust without seeing how his career plays out. However, you can say a guy’s starting to look like a bust if he’s injured a lot or has a bad attitude or can’t beat out mediocre competition, etc. People in Cleveland were certainly thinking they had a bust on their hands when Winslow couldn’t get on the field for 2 years. Timmons had the early injury which lingered and really screwed up his whole rookie year. If he breaks his knee trying to do a wheelie in a parking lot and missed another year, I’d start to think he could be a bust . However, he doesn’t seem to have a bad attitude, he hasn’t gotten injured any more, and after reading Wexell’s minicamp review, it sound like we can pencil him in to start over Foote.

If he somehow doesn’t beat out Foote, I’ll at least be disappointed with him. Foote is no All-Pro, and a first roud pick (other than QB) should be able to beat out an average starter in his second year. As for other possible busts, McFadden may still have a decent career, but if he can’t beat out Townsend this year, I’ll call him a disappointment. Same with Reid.

by BadMaafala on May 8, 2008 9:54 AM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Anyone who can beat out a veteran starter in his second year

is pretty impressive to me. As you say, Foote hasn’t been an All-Pro, but he’s been reliable. And, if Timmons beats him out of the starting job, he’ll be one of the best backup LBs in the league.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on May 8, 2008 10:54 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

My Definition

Of a bust is “A player who never becomes mediocre for a reasonable period of time.” To label Timmons at this point is ludicrous. To label any player within three years is ludicrous, unless it is obvious at that point that they can never be mediocre. Guys like Bradshaw came onto bad teams and it did take more time than other guys take, and he turned out better than mediocre.

Robert Gallery is a guy who switched positions and turned out mediocre. I wish we had him. Therefore he is not a bust (by my definition). He may not have lived up to his billing, he may not have lived up to his salary, he may have been a mistake being picked so high, but those things don’t make him a bust.

Guys like Ryan Leaf and Akili Smith and Tim Couch never became mediocre for a reasonable period of time, so I consider them busts. Couch had a couple moments, like the last time the Browns beat the Steelers he was John Unitas, but he didn’t stay mediocre long enough.

That is just one man’s take and of course, others are just as valid.

by maryrose on May 8, 2008 10:55 AM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Couch

I was actually thinking of adding Couch to my list but then I looked at his numbers and surprisingly they were not all that bad, especially in comparison to Leaf and Smith. His rating was 75 and comp% almost 60.

His numbers are actually better then Eli Manning, without the SB ring. But what makes Couch a bust would be the fact he only played 5 years. Any first round pick(especially #1 overall) that is gone after that long should be a bust as well as long as he didn’t retire because of injuries, then he would just be considered having a career cut short.

by jason97673 on May 8, 2008 1:50 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Eli vs. Couch

That’s hilarious. We’ll have to bring that up next time someone comes on here and starts talking up Manning.

by BadMaafala on May 8, 2008 5:00 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Yeah

I mean like I said Couch’s numbers werent bad. He had more INTs then TDs but his other numbers were decent.

I think he would of been a much better player if he wasn’t the first pick for the new Browns.

But I consider Manning better because I believe he has potential especially since he has some decent players around him. And he just completed a pretty good playoff run. Couch was on an expansion team that had Terry Kirby and Karim Abdul-Jabbar as its main two running backs.

by jason97673 on May 8, 2008 5:46 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Part of a bust is on the team who drafts a player

For example, Flacco might be a bust having gone to the Ravens in the first round. But if they hadn’t drafted him and he went in the 3rd to the Vikings, it might be less applicable for a bust label down the road. The team and supporting cast that player is thrown into, or misuing a player.
I wouldn’t call any player selected in the Petrino-Falcons season a bust or the Saban-Dolphins. Those coaches quit on their team and they are the busts moreso than the players.
There are a lot of variables, length of career, productivity, resignability. The only time I would call a player a bust before his career is officially over, is if he has serious off field issues that is a detriment to theam, causes them to get rid of him, or drastically increases the risk of having him on the team.

by vherub on May 8, 2008 11:26 AM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Also

I know some people say well so and so was a bust so its a good thing we didn’t draft him.

Sort like they assume if we drafted him he still would of been a bust. That would be wrong, because players turn out as busts partly because of there situations. Maybe they are on a horrible team with a horrible organization, bad coaching etc.

If we would of drafted Robert Gallary, he could of been a great player on our team, but a lot of people assume if we drafted him, his career would play out the exact same which is wrong as well.

by jason97673 on May 8, 2008 1:57 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

robert ethan

The expectations are proportional to the draft position of the player, obviously. You seldom hear third round picks (or later) called busts, regardless if they ever play a down in the NFL. But it isn’t the player’s choice where he is picked in a draft. Lots of times a team will grab a guy in the first round that many observers rated as a third round pick or lower. The poor guy isn’t going to be any different at the NFL level as a first round pick, as he would as a third or fourth round pick. Except for an increased burden of expectation, which can make things tougher for the player .

Rather than “boom” or “bust” designations, it would be more reasonable if fans or media just graded a player in terms of his contribution relative to his draft position, and blamed the scouts and coaches for any shortcomings in that regard.

by robert ethan on May 11, 2008 4:17 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

my definition

is a player who after 3 years fails to live up to his draft status, regardless of reason, be it injury or otherwise.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on May 12, 2008 11:40 AM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Problem with this

Is what happens if he fails to live up to his draft pick and does nothing his first 3 years, then is cut and signed by another team and makes 5+ straight pro bowls and all pro teams etc?

Thats why you can’t call a guy a true bust until his entire career plays out.

by jason97673 on May 12, 2008 7:27 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

not true

that player would still be considered a draft bust for the team that originally drafted him. For instance, Jimmy Smith was drafted by the Cowboys in the 2nd rd in 1992, however, he came down with apendicidis and could never get on the field. The Cowboys cut him and you know the rest.

Even though the guy went on to a HOF career with the Jags, he was a bust for the Cowboys.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on May 14, 2008 10:50 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Shocking

I actually agree with Terry on this one. To me a player who doesn’t produce for your team but then becomes a great player on another team is even worse than one that is out of the league. At least the player that’s out of the league can’t hurt you any more.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on May 14, 2008 11:52 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs


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