Ben Roethlisberger - 2008 Community Projections
We're still a month away from camp, but I think we're close enough to Opening Day 2008 for us to begin projecting out the seasons of some of our favorite Steelers. I've done it in year's past, just for kicks, and not surprisingly, been off on some and close on others. So have many of you with your projections in the comments sections.
Before thinking about Big Ben's 2008 season, let's revisit what I wrote in 2007, take a look at what I projected and then compare with his actual 2007 data. Then, combinbing what we learned about him and our offense in 2007 with our newest additions and how we think Arians will adjust in 2008, let's take a stab at projecting his 2008 campaign. A big one, I might add, in the wake of his meteoric pay hike this offseason.
2007 Projections:
269 Completions, 430 Attempts, 62.5 %, 3200 yards, 23 TDs, 14 INTs
2007 Season:
264 completions, 404 attempts, 65.3%, 3154 yards, 32 TDs, 11 INTs
I still smile when I see Ben's 2007 line. That's so freakin' outstanding. Let's take a step back though and realize that, at least statistically, last year could be the greatest statistical year Ben Roethlisberger will ever have as a professional. Yes, he will throw for more than 3154 yards at some point in his career; and I wouldn't wager against him ever having a 30+ TD season before he hangs it up. But nevertheless, when you look at the season as a package, then factor in the spotty running game he had in certain situations, PLUS the porous offensive line, you should then be able to appreciate all that he was able to accomplish statistically. That's so few mistakes for how pressured he was last year.
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Things To Consider Before Projecting Roethlisberger's 2008 season:
1) The schedule - we'll talk about this more later, but the Steelers' 2008 schedule could effect Ben's individual statistics in one of two likely ways: A) We're in a bunch of tough, hard-fought games, where ball-control is king. Those NFC East teams can sport some stiff defense on any given week. Plus, we have, count it, ZERO games west of the Mississippi River this year. Depending on unpredictable weather, we could have plenty of slug-it-out ugly games in the cold and wet Midwest and Northeast this November-January. B) We're in a bunch of shoot-out type games, which would inflate Ben's personal numbers. Cleveland (twice), Cincy (twice), Indy, New England, Dallas, Philadelphia. All those teams prefer to throw more than they run. Some remarkably so. We'll see if the Steelers find themselves in a number of high-scoring affairs, which was very much not the case in 2007. Finally, unless we're better than I expect, there will be no resting for the playoffs in Week 17. The opponent will be the Browns, and it might be for all the marbles. If so, give him an extra week's worth of numbers, for better, or for worse. Oh wait, it's against Cleveland. Rack 'em up Big Ben. Like you always have against teams from the state of Ohio.
2) The offensive line - Of course, the better Roeth is protected, the more likely it is he replicates that low mark of just 11 INTs. We do need to get Ben out of the pocket on occasion, and you better believe that he'll still pull off several heroic plays with his legs, but the reality is, if he's constantly on the run or on his backside, that INT:TD ratio is going to even itself out some in 2008.
3) The running game - Our rush - pass ratio in 2007 was 511:361, or roughly just under 3:2. I would expect that number to go down even a smidge more in 2008. I say even more because in 2006, we threw the ball 523 times. That's nearly 25% more pass attempts than in 2007. Hard to believe, since we all in some way believe that the makeup of our philosophy and offensive talent is morphing towards being more pass-oriented. But that was actually not the case last year. And it wouldn't surprise me if that trend continues in 2008 with the addition of Rashard Mendenhall to the fold. His arrival, plus some uncertainty with the line, both make it plausible that we try to minimize our risk, at least early in the schedule, by hammering away with the running game.
That said, here's my projection for Ben Roethlisberger in 2008. As always, I won't pretend that I arrived at these numbers in any sort of sophisiticated manner, other than thinking about the aforementioned mitigating factors:
272 completions, 432 attempts, 62.9%, 3250 yards, 26 TDs, 16 INTs.
Thoughts?
0 recs |
14 comments
Comments
I was pretty close last year
275 comp, 450 att, 61%, 3780 yds, 25 td, 11 int
I know these numbers look really high but I think for the first time in his short career that Big Ben plays in all 16 games and takes every snap this season.
Here’s his 2008 projections:
284 completions, 430 attempts, 66% for 3,440 yards, 30 TDs, 15 INTs
by cgolden on Jun 23, 2008 2:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Because I'm bored
Here’s my quick (and nearly worthless) look take on how the Ben’s stats might look against our opponents.
CLEx2: good (?) run d, average secondary, and good passing offense + OH bonus = Big day for Ben
BALx2: good run d + average secondary + bad offense = average day for Ben
CINx2: poor run defense, decent secondary + good offense + OH bonus = good day for Ben
HOU: poor run defense + very good pass rush = quiet day for Ben
PHI: good run defense + scary secondary = quiet or bad day for Ben
JAC: average defense + ball control offense = average day for Ben
NYG: good run defense + very good pass rush + sub-par secondary + ok offense = hit or miss day for Ben
WAS: good all-around defense + average offense = quiet day for Ben
IND: good pass defense + poor rush defense + ball control offense = quiet day for Ben
SDG: average run defense + good pass rush and secondary + capable offense = quiet or bad day for Ben
NWE: Average defense + outstanding offense = Big day for Ben
DAL: Good defense + very good offense = hit or miss day for Ben
TEN: Great run defense + decent pass defense = good day for Ben
We’re a well rounded team, so to force Ben to throw and potentially make mistakes, and opponent will have to be well rounded as well (good run d, good pass rush, good secondary, capable offense). If they don’t have those parts, we should only have to pass if it’s working. SDG, PHI, and DAL (and maybe NYG) are the only teams we play IMO that are well rounded enough to force Ben into making throws against a good secondary, so I don’t see why he wouldn’t be able to keep his INT’s in the 10-15 range. We definitely are going to have to ask him to dominate some average secondaries to stay in some games (NWE, CLE), so I think his overall numbers (other than the anomolous TD’s) could go up some. Finally, I’m hoping that all the dump-off talk makes some headway, as well as WR’s and TE’s running some shorter routes, which will bring down his YPA a little, but potentially help his completion and sack rates.
My line: 278 completions, 422 attempts, 65.9%, 3207 yards, 26 TDs, 13 INTs
by BadMaafala on Jun 23, 2008 3:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Tough schedule
Its going to be hard to have a better season than last year, but if his new weapons help out, and the line gets it together im going with 63% for 3`280 yards, 28 TDs, 12 INTs. If Limas Sweed is healthy and providing a big target these numbers could be even better.
by SteelerDomination on Jun 23, 2008 3:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
My Take
It is going to be hard for Ben to duplicate last years numbers, mainly Touchdowns, because we couldnt run in the redzone which I hope we can this year.
But he will probably have a better run game with a good 1-2 punch, and a big tall target where he can just throw it up on occasion, Moore which will help on quick screens etc.
But if you take a look at his numbers every year(Excluding the year he smashed his face) his efficiency numbers are better than anyone in NFL history. There is no reason to think he should not have a top 5 QB rating. At one point last year, Ben was having one of the best seasons in history with almost a 112 rating after that Balt game.
On the other hand, the schedule is a bit tougher. But Cle and Cincy I still believe have one of the worst Pass D’s, especially Cleveland. Cincy also picks 1 or 2 off but Ben usually throws for 250+ as well.
I would predict along the lines of:
265 Completions 420 attempts(C63 MP%) 3400 yards(8.09 YPA) 30 TDs 10 INTs. This would be a 102 rating. His TD and CMP% drops but his YPA rises with the addition of Sweed and Holmes hopefully playing all 16 games.
I think his INT numbers will drop once again as he is becoming more careful with the ball. Not counting 2006, his INT % has dropped from 3.7 to 3.4 to 2.7. That says he is maturing and becoming better at taking care of the ball.
by jason97673 on Jun 23, 2008 4:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
ben vs afc north
In addition to having a monster statistical season, Ben had a very good run against the division, highlighted by the 5td, 81% completion stomping of Baltimore. On the season, he averaged 68% completion rate, 212 yards/game, a 3.75:1 td-int rate and 113 qb rating against the ravens, browns and bengals. This was a huge turnaround from the chaos of the 06 season and even better than the solid 04/05 seasons.
2005 66% 225 yds, 8td/5int, 97.4 rating
2004 69% 179 yds, 7td/5int, 98.2 rating
anyway, I predict:
He plays all 16 games, that bumps his attempts up to 430.
I will keep his completion around 64%, where his career average should be.
I do not see the Steelers throwing for more than 200-220 yards a game, still by playing all 16 games, he will break 3000 and come in around 3350.
As for TDs, Willie Parker and the rushing game had only 9tds, which was very low. Rushing tds will be in the 15-20 range, and that will take a bite out of passing tds. Ints will stay at the career average.
So on the season- 430 attempts, 64%, 3350 yards, 26 TDs, 12 ints.
by vherub on Jun 23, 2008 5:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Let’s see, 2nd year in an offense Ben loves, more weapons, Santonio in his 3rd year, a better OL. This all adds up to another great season.
450 attempts, 302 completions, 67%, 3600 yds, 30 TDs, 15 ints.
by Cols714 on Jun 24, 2008 10:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd love to see it
He was 66.4 his rookie season. NFL record is 70.6% and 23 players have been at least 67% in a season.
by cgolden on Jun 24, 2008 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he passes less..
..but may be even more effective when he does in the upcoming season.
First of all, you have to remember that Ben just turned 26. I don’t think Tony Romo completed an NFL pass before he was 25. Tom Brady didn’t start a game until he was 24, and I don’t think that Carson Palmer had more than a couple by that age. Kurt Warner was playing Arena Football. Prior to the NFL, I think that Ben had just 4 years at the position, 1 in high school and 3 in the MAC. He is a lot further from his prime than most QBs in the league. The Manning brothers were probably breaking down game film in primary school.
Secondly, the Steelers have the deepest RB corps in the league at the moment. Willie Parker has probably been the best in the league over the past 3 seasons combined, and he is just hitting his prime after hardly touching the ball until he was 25 years old. Rashard Mendenhall is a player that could come in and run up 1500 yards as a rookie on another team in the league. Mewelde Moore is terrific as a third down back, and is just 25. Gary Russell will be a starter in the NFL somewhere down the road. With 30 mil guaranteed money invested in Big Ben, why make him take unnecessary risks? If they can win the game on the ground and keep Roethlisberger under 25 passes a game he could play until his contract expires at least.
by robert ethan on Jun 24, 2008 2:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
good point on his high school play
Check out this from his wiki page:
Roethlisberger did not play quarterback until his senior year, giving way to the coach’s son, Ryan Hite. Instead, Roethlisberger played wide receiver because coach Cliff Hite explained to the Toledo Blade, “My son throwing to Ben was a better combination.”
Roethlisberger threw for 4,041 yards, 54 touchdowns and seven interceptions in his one season as quarterback at Findlay. The younger Hite threw for 1,732 yards, 14 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in the year preceding Roethlisberger’s quarterbacking debut.
Geez, how did that guy keep his job after that debacle.
by cgolden on Jun 24, 2008 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right below that on the wiki page:
Hite told the Toledo Blade regarding the decision to start his son at quarterback over Roethlisberger: “I’m a nationally known knucklehead.”
Good stuff. Definitely right about our backfield, ethan. We could see more 12-16/220/2/0 kind of games if we get the ground game chugging. There are always worries about the OL, but we have some decent run blockers (as long as Mahan is on the sidelines), and with all the different weapons we have, someone should be able to take some of the pressure off Ben.
It will be interesting to see if/how Arians adjusts his offense this year. We threw deep an awful lot of the time last year, which can stagnate the offense early if the play isn’t there or if your line can’t block for more than 3 seconds. Now that we have a nice assortment of short and deep threats, it’s possible that we’ll be throwing more short stuff to help the offense click early. I don’t know if Arians will change his playcalling, but it’s probably what we should do. If he did, Ben’s YPA numbers (and QB eff) might go down a little, while his overall attempts and yards might go up.
by BadMaafala on Jun 24, 2008 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My guess
Here’s what I had last year:
240 comp, 380 att, 63%, 3380 yds, 25 TD, 13 int.
With Arians opening up the offense some, I think he throws more often, but not more than 25 times/game.
This year, if he plays all 16, and the playoff berth comes down to week 17:
266 comp, 415 att, 64.1%, 3400 yards, 28 TD, 10 int.
We will be playing a tougher schedule against better defenses than last year, but I think our offense going to be more consistent. Rather than lighting it up for the first half, then going away for much of the second half, we’ll keep playing well entire season.
by WolfpackSteelersFan on Jun 24, 2008 4:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
There are more short yardage pass options now..
Mewelde Moore is one of the better pass catching backs in the league. Mendenhall and Russell both came out of college with good reputations as pass receivers. There are a few QBs in the league who make their living dumping the ball off to RBs like Brian Westbrook, Reggie Bush, and Maurice Jones-Drew and letting them do all the work. Plus the vertical targets like Heath Miller, Matt Spaeth, and Limas Sweed. Big Ben has been provided with the best set of tools in the league going forward, I think. There is no reason to think that he can’t have a stretch of outstanding seasons, barring a serious injury.
by robert ethan on Jun 24, 2008 4:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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