Steelers Question of the Week: Rashard Mendenhall

by SteveMeredith on Jun 8, 2008 12:23 PM EDT

First of all, I'd like to thank everyone who commented on last week's Steelers Question of the Week, it was nice to hear everyone's opinion. Here's this week's question:

Shortly following the 2008 NFL Draft, NFL Network analyst Terrell Davis gave Steelers rookie running back Rashard Mendenhall the nod to win the 2008 Rookie of the Year award. In his opinion, Mendenhall has the best chance to win the award based on Mendenhall's talent coupled with the system into which he was drafted.

By now, we all know that Mendenhall tweaked his hamstring in a May minicamp. With that said, if we assume that Mendenhall is going to recover and be healthy going into the season, do you agree with Terrell Davis' assessment? Will Mendenhall win the Rookie of the Year award? Why or why not?

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Can't see it happening..

For several reasons. First of all the Steelers have one of the deeper running back corps in the league. Willie Parker was leading the league in yards when he was injured. There is no reason to assume he won’t be fully recovered. Najeh Davenport was one of the better backups in the league, with 500 yards, 5 TDs, and close to a 5 ypc average. In the off season they added a very good young veteran in Mewelde Moore who excels as a third down back. Gary Russell, the free agent who stuck with the team last season has a lot of untapped potential. He is very similar in size and style to Mendenhall, and has had the advantage of a year to learn the system.

Also, Steelers have a history of bringing their rookies along slowly, except in emergency situations due to injuries as was the case with Ben Roethlisberger. Last year’s top pick Lawrence Timmons hardly saw the field, drafted as a 20 year old junior with just one season as a starter in college. I think the team expected Timmons to take a full year to mature and acquire the skills he was lacking to start in the NFL. Mendenhall is in the same position this year. He probably had less carries as a collegian than any of the running backs drafted in 2008, and was the youngest, I believe.

There are lots of rookies coming into situations where they are almost guaranteed starting roles, and all of them have more experience at the college level than Mendenhall. It would require a fluke set of circumstances in order for Mendenhall to become the feature back in Pittsburgh in his first season.

by robert ethan on Jun 8, 2008 6:58 PM EDT 0 recs

No way

For a Rookie Running Back to win that award, he needs to pile up a lot of yards, either through the air or on the ground or both.

Unless he somehow becomes our starter(or Parker is injured for 10+ games) and gets 1000+ yards on the ground and a few hundred in the air, he has not shot.

Of course, having no shot at the award doesnt mean he will not be very valuable to our own team and help us score touchdowns and win games. But to be the BEST rookie? You need numbers to win awards, and he wont get them as the number 2 RB.

by jason97673 on Jun 8, 2008 7:27 PM EDT 0 recs

Nope

I believe he has the chance to be a big contributer, but wont get the stats to win it. You never know…willie could go down and he could step in. I dont like his chances though.

by blitzburg on Jun 8, 2008 11:34 PM EDT 0 recs

its late, real late

But we need to be thinking about what players out there in this year’s draft class have the potential to rack up the type of numbers that you guys are talking about as necessary to win this award. I don’t disagree with yall that i’ts not likely that the production wont be enough given the situation he’s in. But lets take a look at some of the 1st rounders who might be in ideal situations to step in and be centerpieces of their teams offense like AP was last year in Minny. McFadden? Maybe. Jake Long? No. Matt Ryan. hahaha. Good one. Let’s hear about who might win it.

by Blitzburgh on Jun 9, 2008 5:12 AM EDT up 0 recs

On our team, Mendy has the best chance to win it, but he could probably only do that if Parker got injured. I doubt Sweed has any chance, even if there are injuries. Bruce Davis probably has a better chance if one of the OLB’s got injured and he somehow got 10 sacks and drew attention to himself with his mouth.

For the rest of the league, if McFadden puts up halfway decent numbers and has 1 or 2 outstanding games, he would be a shoe-in. However, he’s also in a crowded backfield with Bush and Fargas, so he’ll have to prove his worth just to get carries. I doubt Ryan can win it, because rookie QB’s usually only win as game managers on good teams (Roeth, Young), but if somehow Flacco doesn’t suck, that could happen with the Ravens (let’s hope it doesn’t).

Defensively, it could come down to whoever puts up the biggest sack numbers, with preference going to Ellis or Dorsey. Mayo or one of the CB’s has a shot too, based on tackles and int’s, respectively.

by BadMaafala on Jun 9, 2008 10:02 AM EDT up 0 recs

Can't see it happening

Mendenhall will be a #2 at best and unless FWP goes down, I can’t see him having much more than 500 yards and a handful of touchdowns. If I had to pick one today, I’d have to go with Jonathon Stewart as the front runner and Felix Jones as a darkhorse.

Stewart could realistically be the #1 by day one. DeAngelo Williams have always been a #2 back and Carolina seems to like to split carries pretty evenly anyways.

Felix Jones will get some carries simply b/c MB3 can’t carry the ball 25 times a game the way that he runs. I don’t think Jones is as good as Mendenhall but he’ll have a really good offensive line and should get just as many chances if not more.

Revenge of the Birds

by cgolden on Jun 9, 2008 8:36 AM EDT 0 recs

Mendy

I think he’s going to have more than 500 yards. Dookie had about that much last year. Surely we’ll feature Mendenhall more so than Najeh. RBs, unlike most positions, can really step in and contribute immediately as rookies, so I don’t see why he won’t get 150-200 carries.

by Blitzburgh on Jun 9, 2008 11:03 AM EDT up 0 recs

very true

There’s no reason why he can’t be more effective than Najeh but you have to remember that 150 of Najeh’s yards came in the final two games when he basically started both games.

Revenge of the Birds

by cgolden on Jun 9, 2008 2:38 PM EDT up 0 recs

I think it's possble

I agree with Blitzburgh. I don’t see anyone out there that makes me think that is definitely the rookie of the year. And, I think they drafted Mendenhall to take some of the load off of FWP. He should be an immediate upgrade over Najeh.

Sure, it could be Stewart or Felix Jones, but those guys could also end up flopping at the next level. For whatever reason, you never know for sure how a player will respond to the transition until they do it.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Jun 9, 2008 11:06 AM EDT 0 recs

yo WPSF

Emailed you. Whenever it’s convenient, hit me up.

by Blitzburgh on Jun 9, 2008 11:13 AM EDT up 0 recs

historically

offensive rookie of the year is almost always a running back
Peterson 1300/5.6/12 (yars/ypc/td)
Cadillac 1100/4.1/6
Portis 1500/5.5/15
A-Train 1100/4.3/7
Mike Anderson 1400/5.0/15
Edge 1500/4.2/13 500/4
Dunn 900/4.4/4
Eddie George 1300/4.1/8
Curtis Martin 1400/4.0/14
Faulk 1200/4.1/11
Bettis 1400/4.9/7

So to win it, you need at least 900 yards, but more like 1100+ and a ypc above 4.0. A nose for the endzone helps. Also, accumulating decent reception yards can boost weaker rushing yards- as Dunn had 400+ additional yards and 3 more tds this way. Also the visibility/hype of being a 1st rounder cannot be ignored.

4 steelers have ever won roy honors Ben, Lipps, Orr and Franco (1000/5.6/10). The Franco year is interesting, not the least because his ypc was an unreal 5.6 and he only had 188 attempts. Mendenhall can have an immediate impact, but unless he plays out of his mind (or the unmentionable happens to others ahead of him), he isn’t going to get enough touches.
Still, if he has a ypc around 5, brings in a few tds, keeps fumbles low and accumulates 800-1000 all purpose yards, I don’t care if he wins the roy honors, it would still be a great rookie campaign and a solid start to a career.

by vherub on Jun 9, 2008 2:57 PM EDT 1 recs

good work

This is exactly what I was looking for vherub. Thanks.

And from the looks of it, one needs some might impressive numbers to win that hardware.

by Blitzburgh on Jun 9, 2008 3:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

Good stuff

If not a RB, then usually a WR. But, I don’t see any RBs in situations that make me think one of them is going to get the kind of numbers your talking about. And, the WR class was kind of shallow, unless there’s another Marques Colston out there.

If Mendenhall has the kind of numbers your talking about, this may be a year where that could win ROY. Maybe someone jumps out of the pack, but who knows.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Jun 9, 2008 5:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

No!

Only if FWP goes down in training camp, pre-season or the 1st or 2nd game of the season.

by steelersrock08 on Jun 9, 2008 10:20 PM EDT 0 recs

I'm going to go out on a limb here,

I say “yes”. If Mendenhall develops into a goal-line terror, which he has all the tools to, and can rack up 10-15 TDs, he has a shot.

Even as suspect as our offensive line is, most of our linemen are pretty stout in runblocking, Marvel is about the only guy we got that is truely “good” at pass blocking, that is where, I think, that our O-line gets the bad rap.

I think that this year we get a better push on short yardage situations, and that Rashard is that guy. Will he be the Bus? No, but he could suprise (and lower FWP’s value on my Fantasy League) .

Like vhrehub said, Mendenhall would have to play out of his mind, or something unmentionable would have to happen.

If, and a big if, Rashard can help with the short yardage passing game ala Reggie Bush rookie season, and still pick up 500+ yards on the ground, coupled with goal line touches, and maybe an inspired game on prime-time ala Silverback vs Baltimore last year, then I wouldn’t count him out, and I wouldn’t bet against him. Something in my gut.

"Damnit mom! You almost ran over Greg Lloyd!"

at an autograph signing back in 95. He walked out in front of our minivan, and my mom almost hit him. He apologized.

by PA ARMY OFFICER on Jun 11, 2008 9:14 AM EDT 0 recs

Agree with you Army

FWP is great but he always had problems as a running back. He wasn’t great catching the ball and he was not great at getting tough yards in between the tackles. No doubt he could break big runs on you, but it also feels like he gets a lot of no progress runs. His Yards per carry average has steadily declined falling to a mediocre 4.1 last year.

I checked football outsiders for confirmation of what I felt I was seeing in game tapes and indeed the numers are very interesting:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb.php

Willie Ranks 38 on DPAR
44 on DVOA
and 42 on Success rate

these are sharp drop offs from his previous two years we he ranked around 15 for all of these categrories.

While I can’t claim to completely understand these numbers, I do think they are somewhat useful in getting a sense of a players production – and again they do reflect my feeling that Willie, despite racking up yards had a somewhat of a drop off in being a difference maker.

Don’t get me wrong. I am not hating on FWP. Far from it. For an UFA with no college experience to play, let alone accomplish what he has done is absolutely remarkable, but I think that Mendenhall has the chance to come in and compete with FWP next year if not this year.

Ofcourse Mendenhall is a question mark. We will only know what he can do after he starts touching the ball.

by SteelerBuddha on Jun 11, 2008 2:16 PM EDT up 0 recs