Football Outsider Notes

by jason97673 on Jul 31, 2008 11:29 AM EDT Comment 8 comments

Football Outsiders has some very nice stats. And I picked up a copy of Pro Football Prospectus 2008 the other day and read through alot of our Steelers players.

And I found some quite interesting things I think you could find interesting.

I am still not entirely sure what alot of you think of the way they do there special rankings or if you put a lot of stock into them but this is what I found interesting:

-Nate Washington, in 2006(his first year as an every week player) ranked 4th in DVOA(Defesense -Adjusted Value Over Average) and 15th in DYAR(Defense-Adjusted Points above replacement). Last year ranked 15th in DVOA and 40th in DYAR. Pretty good for a 3rd WR who a lot of people think should be cut.

-Santonio Holmes, in 2006(rookie year) ranked 5th in DVOA and 9th in DYAR. Unbelievable for a rookie. Last year ranked 6th in DVOA and 11th in DYAR. Also 19% of the passes intended for him were deep passes(26+ yards).

-Roethlisberger had to scramble on 15% of pass plays, more than any QB and more than twice the league average of 7%. Also was the most hurried QB in the league but also the best QB in the league when hurried with a 36.9% DVOA. What does this say?

-Roethlisberger last year ranked 11th in DYAR which was worse then Hasselbeck, Cutler, and Anderson. He ranked 13th in DVOA. How can he have a 104 rating and constantly be put in 3rd and longs and convert yet be ranked behind Derek Anderson who barely completed only 56% of his passes and threw 19 ints and behind many others whos seasons werent half as good as his?

-Steelers had the greatest discrepancy between their offensive efficiency in the shotgun(41% DVOA) and with the QB under center (-3.4% DVOA).

-We have the slowest Offensive Pace

-Last year, they had the largest yardage discrepancy of any team that was better without play action.

-Last year, the defense allowed the lowest YAC. Reason being the Steelers opponents threw to there Running Backs less often then any team in the NFL.

-Keisel had the lowest stop% on the DL at 70%. The highest was actually hard to believe, Travis Kirschke at 88%, which also ranked 3rd in the entire NFL. Opposing teams averaged 2.1 YPC running at him though. Keisel averaged 2.9, while Hampton was 1.5 and Smith was 1.7.

Let me know what you think of these type of numbers and if you think they mean a good amount. I can probaly add more numbers later.

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Interesting stuff on Ben

I’m not surprised FO wasn’t as high on Ben as the QB rating scale. All those sacks had to lower his value. As a team we didn’t sustain drives consistently enough for my taste, partly because we kept throwing deep with a bad OL. You can read between the lines and see that our OL sucks (shock, I know). Plays that take longer to develop (QB under center, play action) probably resulted in sacks because the line proved over and over that they can’t sustain their blocks. IIRC, Parker was way better on quick developing running plays as opposed to ones where he was deep.

by BadMaafala on Jul 31, 2008 11:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i like that they

keep track of stuff like how often they scramble, stop % and such, but I just don’t put any stock into the whole DVOA, DYAR stuff. And what the heck is Offensive Pace?

by steelerark on Jul 31, 2008 12:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Eh

Offensive Pace I believe is how quick you get off your plays. For example I am sure you have noticed it seems we like to let the clock hit 1 or 0 before we run the play. The Colts and the Pats never wait that long so they have a faster pace. But dont quote me, thats what I think it would mean. I got it out of the book and couldnt find a description on it.

Maybe someone else can clearify?

by jason97673 on Jul 31, 2008 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Found a link

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3153679

I believe the following would be the correct description:

Situation-Neutral Pace: Seconds of game clock used per offensive play, with the following restrictions: drives are not included if they begin in the fourth quarter or final five minutes of the first half, and drives are only included when the score is within six points or less. A lower number indicates a faster pace.

by jason97673 on Jul 31, 2008 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Stop % is actually based on

DVOA, if I remember right. And I have some problems with those numbers too, mainly that they’re pretty subjective.

Offensive Pace is simply how long it takes you get a play off. The faster you are, all things being equal, the more likely you are to score.

by Desroko on Jul 31, 2008 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

why?

Some teams have unbalanced offenses with frequent, deeper passing while others have more running and shorter passes. Who is to say that the former offensive scheme is more likely to score?

by ec on Jul 31, 2008 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"All things being equal"

is the key phrase here. It can’t be used to compare wildly different offensive teams, which is why it isn’t given much prominence.

by Desroko on Jul 31, 2008 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also

I think they are nice stats to look at. But with any type of stats, there are always things you have to consider. The main problem with these stats are that there is potential for alot of human error to take place since they have volunteers charting the data and watching video to see who was getting run towards. Sometimes plays are skipped or not all are charted etc.

by jason97673 on Jul 31, 2008 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs