BTSC 2008 Community Projections - Willie Parker
by Michael Bean on Aug 25, 2008 2:30 PM EDT
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PrintOf all the projections that we've done and will continue to do before the opener in two Sundays, none are, or will be, as intriguing as the ones for Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall. Let's start with Willie Parker, the incumbent starter.
Ever since we received confirmation this preseason that Parker's leg was healed, there has been very little conversation about our RB who was in contention last year for a rushing title. Part of that is our understandable excitement to see our new rookies Rashard Mendenhall and Limas Sweed. It's also partly because we were so consumed with the offensive line situation this offseason. Not that any of that really matters, but I would actually guess that Parker is more than happy flying under the radar. He's done it his whole career, and risen up every time to force people to notice.
This past Saturday, Parker again demonstrated his difficulties running against superior rush defenses. He was limited to just 18 yards on 10 carries. Fortunately, our offense is so versatile that we'll no longer need to pound the ball with Parker futilely, which, if nothing else, might keep him fresh deep into the season.
The real question though, is how Coach Tomlin and Coach Arians plan on dividing up the carries between him and Mendenhall. Will there be some sort of quota that they try to fill for both backs each game? Or will they wait to see who's feeling it and running well that week and adjust the game plan accordingly. I don't know, but I can't wait to find out.
One thing we can do that might be useful is to see how some other teams have managed the dual RB situation. Of course we all know that most teams have adopted this philosophy in recent years, so I thought about which tandem might be somewhat congrous to our situation. I ultimately decided the Jaguars were a worthwhile comparison.
In 2007, Maurice Jones Drew had 167 carries, while Fred Taylor had 223. Combined, they accumulated 1790 yards (1202 for Taylor). I think we might see a very similar split between Parker and Mendenhall, with FWP receiving the larger share, and Mendy perhaps getting a few extra touches in the passing and return game. If I had to guess though, I think Parker
2007 stats: 321 carries, 1316 yards, 4.1 avg., 2 TDs, 4 Fumbles
2008 Projection: 234 carries, 985 yards, 4.4 avg., 5 TDs
What do you think?
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intersting
just ten votes in, but i’m the only one who thinks he’ll be under thus far. maybe one other.
Blitz
as usual, we see eye to eye. i think he might be just under. however, if he is at 985, he’ll get to 1,000, the coaches will give him some garbage carries or something to get it, as it likely earns him a bonus or something. 920-950 would be my estimate for yards. TDs look right.
by TheMostViolentTeam on Aug 25, 2008 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions
260 carries, 1,196 yards, 4.6 YPC, 6 TDs
I think as long as FWP gets over 250 carries, which he should, he’ll break 1,000. I actually think he’ll be more effective this year and we’ll see a return the true FWP. I think some of his big play ability was lost last year b/c of the workload but with a lesser workload we’ll see a return to his old form.
P.S. Four of his TDs will be from 25 yards or more.
250 carries, 1,125 yards, 4.5 YPC, 5 TDs
Nice example with Jones Drew and Taylor, like you Blitz I can’t wait to see how this unfolds.
A lot will have to do with performance of course, we’ll just have to see how Mendehall does. Depending on that I’m expecting Mendenhall to pick up some of the shorter down and distance situations, leaving FWP with fewer short yardage attempts and fresher legs, hence the high YPC than in ’07. A few 50-60 yarders sprinkled in along the way and FWP is over a 1,000 for the season.
by herewegosteelers on Aug 25, 2008 4:34 PM EDT reply actions
twould be nice
Sure hope yall are right when you envision some longer runs this year. I love watching him go into overdrive when he has some daylight.
by Michael Bean on Aug 25, 2008 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Love to see 1000+
But defenses know to shut him down. I love to see him take off too, but most of the time, someone has his number before he gets the chance. And coming back from that injury… is he really 100%?
Two other questions: do you really think Mendy is going to see all that much playing time? I thought as a rookie he’d be likely to see playing time only when there’s already a comfortable lead (and given the schedule, I am not sure how many “comfortable leads” we are going to enjoy this year).
Other Q: Sweed. Seen and read lots of talk about Mendenhall, but not much really about Sweed. How does he look? Has he been playing? I live in a benighted burg where network TV = the godforsaken Redskins, and this week it doesn’t even look the NFL Network is going to gratify me with a replay of Saturday’s game. So, have had a tough time seeing the games, and don’t know the first about how Sweed is shaping up.
by DistrictSteelerFan on Aug 25, 2008 9:25 PM EDT reply actions
Can't vote the man down...
I think FWP has all it will take to make over 1000 in and of himself, but the question for me is, will the makeup of the team allow it.
If we’re doing well he’ll get a lot more carries as we try to grind down the games – enter the lineplay. Can they consistenly make holes for the man?. I hope so, but there is room for worry on this front.
We’ll be doing a lot of passing anyway – just look at all Ben’s targets, but if we’re struggling or behind the run game will suffer at the expense of trying to get us back into games with the pass. Throw in the fact that they have Moore and Mendenhall too, and he might not make it to 1000 this year, but I don’t think it will be due to his effort and ability, if you know what I mean.
With his gamebreaking speed
he should still be running even if we’re behind. He could very well break a draw play for a TD if the defense is thinking pass.
by WolfpackSteelersFan on Aug 26, 2008 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree, but...
do Arians or Ben? I just see the focus on the passing game being the way they move in that situation.
Arians might be more likely to call for a designed QB run! Bad memories again.
Arians
Good point. Man, if he doesn’t pick it up this year, we need to move on, I think. I fear that he is someone who has found a system that works well often enough that he will never change. There’s no doubt our offense was pretty good last year, but it became predictable, and as many have said, may have cost us a win in the playoffs.
by WolfpackSteelersFan on Aug 26, 2008 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Parker has always been one of my favorites
For some reason I truely believe he will do better this year then he did last year. Maybe not as many yards but a better TD count and higher yards per run %. Hartwig will certainly be a better center then mahan, plus he was the center of a run oriented team. Kemo is a bulldozer. I think pass protection may still lack but hopefully run blocking won’t.
Plus, with all the weapons Ben’s got we can go into a one back set with several wides and spread the field, allowing a draw play to be even more successful.
I’m gonna go with 1,279 yards, 4.6 average, 6 Rushing TDs, 2 receiving TDs, and 3 fumbles.
Not sure what the carry count is, too lazy to do the math.
good thoughts
WElcome to the site too. 8 total TDs would be huge! Hope you’re right about Kemo too. Haven’t heard or seen much of him in a couple weeks.
by Michael Bean on Aug 26, 2008 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
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