Local Interview with Aaron Schatz of FO

by BadMaafala on Aug 5, 2008 11:38 AM EDT Comment 10 comments

Aaron Schatz, the creator of Football Outsiders and Football Prospectus did an interview with a local radio station here in Dayton, and he had some pretty interesting things to say.

For general NFL thoughts, his book predicts that the Texans will make the playoffs, which perked my interest, because I said as much in our prediction thread a couple weeks back. His arguments were that they had a much higher number of injuries than in previous years, and thus were likely to be more fortunate this year. He also said that teams that draft a group of talented defensive players within a small time period, as the Texans have, tend to take big steps forward 2 or 3 years later, citing examples of the Panthers and Bears earlier this decade. Lastly, he likes Schaub, and Rosefels looked good last year too.

The local guys asked him about the NFC North, and this is where I thought it was really interesting. First off he tore the Browns a new one, saying they'd go 6-10 and that they had a lot of the signs of the classic "take a step back" teams of years past. He specifically mentioned Anderson as a guy who may have played over his head, but admitted he had some of the same questions about Romo last year . He also talked about the schedule differential, the uncertainties with bringing in 4-3 guys to play 3-4, and the anomolously low number of injuries they had last year compared to previous years. Their reliance on their playmakers on offense (Lewis, Winslow, Edwards) and their lack of secondary depth could amplify this if a key guy got hurt.

Lest Browns ~~trolls~~ fans think I'm being biased, he also said that the OL for the Steelers is the worst it's been in 10-15 years and that he doesn't think we'll win the division because of it and the schedule. That honor went to the Ravens, whose secondary won't be as bad with injuries as last year, although when asked, he couldn't give an answer for their offense. He also has the Bengals going 6-10.

So basically, he's spot on with the Browns, but completely wrong about the Steelers :)

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Thanks
FO is one of my favorite websites and books.

by Cols714 on Aug 5, 2008 12:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, Romo

is the best hope for Anderson. PFP 2007 predicted the same regression on offense for the Cowboys that this year’s edition calls for the Browns.

by Desroko on Aug 5, 2008 3:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Can't argue with that line comment

It does seem like the worst o-line, but I take solace from last year and hope maybe there’ll be a battle tested unified front line under the tree by Christmas….I can hope can’t I. I think the big difference with the Browns this year is the schedule and everyone will be looking out for them. No one is marking their games up as victories this year – so that underdog thing is gone. If the Ravens make the post season I would be real suprised. Just because they won a SB without an offense once doesn’t mean they’ll do it again.

by SCSteeler on Aug 5, 2008 3:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Interesting...

Hmmmmm. He lost me with the Ravens. With my best guess I would say its going to be at least two maybe three years before they’ll be back to the POs.

by steelersrock08 on Aug 5, 2008 4:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Could be next season

I have hard time seeing it this year, though.

by Desroko on Aug 5, 2008 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ravens

They need a Ben type situation with Smith or Flacco to really have a chance. I also question why the Ravens get a pass on offense because their defense will be better, but we don’t even though we were tops in the league by some meaures last year.

by BadMaafala on Aug 5, 2008 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good point!

Their defense will be older too, and we (knock on wood) are going to get younger and seemingly better too (can you be better than #1? – hell yeah you can!)

by SCSteeler on Aug 5, 2008 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

On point!

They are for sure not getting any younger. RL can’t keep carrying the team. The media and their fans need to accept the fact that they must rebuild. I thought it was a good move on their FO’s part not to take the Favre bait and develope what they have at QB. If they stay on track, they’ll be back after a coupla more drafts.

by steelersrock08 on Aug 5, 2008 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Simple

If the guy would have said the Steelers or Browns no one would have taken notice. He’d have fallen in with the rest of world and wouldn’t have stood out. This fanpost probably wouldn’t have been created and we all wouldn’t be talking about Football Outsiders. He’s just saying something to stand out from the crowd.

Revenge of the Birds

by cgolden on Aug 6, 2008 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe

but this isn’t Greg Easterbrook we’re talking about. Football Prospectus generally isn’t sensationalist literature. There are usually numbers (for good or ill) backing everything up. I can understand why he might think the D will rebound, and if they do, our OL is going to have a heck of a time running or pass protecting against that front 7. If our offense plays against them like 2006, they may not need an offense to beat us. I don’t know if that’s his justification or not, but I’d bet there’s some line of reasoning for it.

by BadMaafala on Aug 6, 2008 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs