Let me start with a quote.  This comes from our fearless leader and solid football prognosticator Blitz.  

It was written this summer as the Steelers began to contemplate their title defense in earnest. Blitz was writing a post projecting Santonio Holmes numbers for 2009. Before I give you the quote, here is Blitz's projections for Holmes' 2009 numbers. 

72 Catches  1115 Yards15.48 Yards per catch

If you actually extrapolate Holmes numbers based on his current totals you would wind up with: 

74 Catches 1168 Yards 15.6 Yards per catch

Now that we have established that Blitz sold his soul to the devil for the ability to make freakishly accurate stat predictions - I mean - knows a fair amount about football, let's look at what he had to say about the prospect of replacing Nate Washington. 

I think Limas Sweed and/or Mike Wallace can fill the void left by Nate Washington just fine, but it's worth remembering just how much Washington forced defenses to remain honest with his ability to stretch the field vertically. Furthermore, Washington was more than just a decoy if you consider just how much Big Ben liked to look his way. Decoys only work if you semi-occasionally throw them the ball. Will Ben feel comfortable enough with Wallace or forget about Sweed's struggles last year and look their way enough to get Holmes and Hines Ward open at other times?

Let me translate here. Blitz thinks we won't miss Nate, but he isn't quite sure. Sweed's struggles have correctly made Blitz nervous and Wallace at this point is about as proven a commodity as Frank the tank Summers or Darius Heyward Bey.  

Let me point out that Blitz was on the calm side of the continuum regarding his worry.   In his article titled "Steelers 2009: The Top Five Issues They Face at Camp"  Professional grouch reporter Ed Bouchette listed the receiver situation as number 1.  

Here is what he had to say about replacing Nate.  After praising Holmes and Ward (whose age worried many, myself included - woops) he goes on to lay out why we signed Shuan McDonald. 

 

The ambiguous nature of what stands behind them is what makes this the most pressing issue as the team enters training camp. Their returning teammates behind them have seven career regular-season receptions between them -- Limas Sweed, pictured at right, has six and Dallas Baker has one. That is why the Steelers added veteran Shaun McDonald, who languished as a free agent until they signed him May 1, and drafted Mike Wallace in the third round.

McDonald, listed as 5-feet-10 and 183, had a nice season with Detroit in 2007 when he led the Lions with 79 receptions, 943 yards and 6 touchdowns. He will compete with Sweed for the No. 3 job opened when Nate Washington signed as a free agent with Tennessee. Sweed, their second-round 2008 draft choice, is the key. He is 6-4 and can add a new dimension to their offense. Wallace also figures to be in the mix somewhere.

Notice where Wallace is?  Yup somewhere in the mix.  

via blogbeckett.files.wordpress.com

A couple of months later and boy do things look different in Steeler Nation.  Sweed has continued his struggles from last year and McDonald despite having a solid training camp and the best resume of the bunch was outclassed in terms of talent by both Sweed and Wallace.  

Wallace on the other hand has gone on to do the unthinkable. He is having a great rookie year as a wide receiver for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Let's go back to Blitz's quote. One of the things that Blitz touches on is how well Nate stretched the field. It was clear from the start that Sweed was capable of stretching the field, he was wide open on all those drops, it also seemed a fair assumption that Wallace with his sub 4.3 speed could out-run guys, but the much repeated assumption was that Steelers wide receivers take at least a year if not two or three to fully develop. Based on this most thought we wouldn't be able to rely on Wallace as much more than a really fast decoy.

There is good reason for this assumption.  Since the 1970's the Steelers have had a handful of really good wide receivers and a number of high draft picks at WR.  Here are there stats during for that group during their first year of playing football:  

 

Name	Receptions	Yards	Yrds/Rec	Draft Round - Number
Lynn Curtis Swann	11	208	18.9	1st Rd (21)
Johnny Lee Stallworth	16	269	16.8	4th Rd (82)
Louis Adam Lipps Jr.	45	860	19.1	1st Rd (23)
Charles Everett Johnson	38	577	15.2	1st Rd (17)
Hines E. Ward Jr.	15	246	16.4	3rd Rd (96)
Troy Edwards	60	714	11.7	1st Rd (13)
Plaxico Jeffrey Burress	22	273	12.4	1st Rd (8th)
Santonio Holmes Jr.	49	824	16.8	1st Rd (25)
Limas Lee Sweed Jr.	6	64	10.7	2nd Rd (53)
Burnell Michael Wallace (through 6)	18	296	16.4	3rd Rd (84)
Burnell Michael Wallace (projected)	48	794	16.4	3rd Rd (84)

 

There are two hall of famers one FHOF and six first round picks on that list..

via thepulplist.com (These guys were pretty good)

via www.checkoutmycards.com (This guy started out good and went downhill fast)

Burnell Michael (60 Minutes) Wallace is essentially on pace to match if not beat them statistically.  With a couple of good games in the second half he could have the most productive season ever for a Steeler rookie wide receiver.  Not too shabby for a low 3rd round pick.  

Now, let's look at how Wallace has stacked up against his rookie class: 

Name	Receptions	Yards	Yrds/Rec	Draft Round - Number
Mike Wallace	18	296	16.4	3rd Rd (84)
Kenny Britt	19	289	15.2	1st Rd (30)
Mohammed Massaquoi	16	278	17.3	2nd Rd (50)
Percy Harvin	20	243	12.1	1st Rd (22)
Hakeem Nicks	12	235	19.5	1st Rd (29)
Austin Collie	20	228	11.4	4th Rd (127)
Johnny Knox	17	224	13.2	5th Rd (140)
Jeremy Maclin	13	193	14.8	1st Rd (19)
Julian Edelman	21	188	8.9	7th Rd (232)
Darius Heyward-Bey	2	19	9.5	1st Rd (7)
Michael Crabtree	0	0	0	1st Rd (10)

 

Again, at this early stage Wallace is pretty much at or near the top in terms of production for his rookie class (he has a game more than a couple of his opponents).

Finally let's look at the comparison between Wallace and the man whose job he took Nate Washington.

Probably the most relevant stat to start with is that Nate is being payed about 27 million dollars over 6 years while Wallace is making 1.7 over 3. If it wasn't for the money there would have been a very good chance that Washington would still be playing productive football for the Steelers. But the age of 26, with 3 productive years as a under his belt, Washington wanted to cash in.

Here is what he has done so far this season:

18 Catches 150 Yards 8.3 Y/C

via d.yimg.com (Silly Titans! Nate's fed up with 0-6 starts!)

Not only is Wallace putting up better numbers than Washington this year, but his projected totals are also better than Washington's totals for 2008, his best with the Steelers.

Now you may be inclined to argue that it's not a fair comparison to look at the numbers for two wide receivers on different teams. There is no doubt that Wallace is benifitting from the great years being had by Ward, Holmes, Miller and of course Big Ben, but this is obviously a cyclical argument.

It could just as easily be said that they are all benefiting from the big year he is having. Going back to Blitz's quote. Blitz was worried about having a guy who could not only run past the coverage, but do it in such a way that made defenses have to rethink their coverage schemes.

Through the first 6 games of this season, there is no doubt that Wallace is doing that. What's more he's making tough catches in the middle of the field in a way that Nate rarely did even in his fourth season as a Steeler.

via www.planetsteelers.com (It's the tough catches that make a difference - I wonder where he learned that?)

via www.steelersgab.com (no, not that guy? Not Mr. Smiley?)

via cdn.bleacherreport.com (maybe this guy helped a bit too)

 

As Mike Tomlin said so concisely, "The game is not to big for him"

Six games in to the season, it seems safe to say, that not only do we not miss Nate Washington, but that Wallace is already an upgrade and has the potential to be a whole lot more.

We'll finish with a poll just because I've never done one before: 

Poll

Will Mike Wallace's Production during the final 10 games will:

43%

Increase (50 plus catches/ 800 plus yards)

167 votes

52%

Stay about the same (40-50 Catches/ 700-800 yards)

203 votes

4%

Decrease (Under 40 Catches/ under 700 yards)

18 votes

388 votes | Poll has closed