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Football Outsiders Evaluation of Pittsburgh Steelers Through First Four Weeks of 2009 NFL Season

I'm not going to spend an inordinate amount of time going over what Football Outsider's metrics are and why they are worth at least examinig critically by all fans of football. I don't think their evaluations are perfect by any means, but I do think they are more useful than merely looking at traditional numbers like yards per game and quarterback rating - at least most of the time. Brose around their site if you never have before and make your own conclusions. Some of it's a bit cryptic in how they come up with their data, but basically the premise is they watch all the film and determine how players and teams are producing in certain situations compared to how the rest of the league has/would/might fare in similar situations.

After the jump, some updates about the Steelers performance through four weeks - both on an individual level and by offensive, defensive and special teams units.

Star-divide

  1. Ben Roethlisberger is - in the most simplest of terms - valued as the 2nd most valuable quarterback in the NFL through four weeks. First would be Peyton Manning. 3,4,5 would be Brees, Brady and the other Manning. Nice company to keep and not a trend that I see dissipating any time soon. Our quarterback's that good, and it's undeniably one of the most important strengths any team can have.  

  2. Somewhat interestingly, Heath Miller is not rates as favorably by FO's metrics. He comes in at just 18th and 24th in their two most notable metrics. A great example of why I don't necessarily agree with every last element of their evaluation system. Miller's catch rate is 89%. Only Daniel Graham has a better % (90%) than Miller, but he's only had 10 passes thrown his way compared to 27 for Heath. Keep it up #83!

  3.  Football Outsiders LOVES our wide receivers so far - and rightfully so. Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes are valued extremely high. I very much enjoyed BadMaafala's post about Santonio Holmes and his importance to the Steelers offense - I just am not sure I agreed that he'd been off the mark so far to start this season. Holmes and Ward have been very good, and when you throw in Mike Wallace, who's also rated favorably by FO's metrics, we're talking about one helluva dangerous trio of wideouts.

  4.  Offensively, we're doing a ton of things right, particularly in the passing game. After last weekend's solid performance running the ball, the running game is even beginning to catch up a bit. Funny how things can change from one year to the next so drastically without major personnel overhauls. Still early, but I don't see this trend continuing. 

  5. Defensively? Not so hot. Especially against the pass. The Steelers are ranked 28th defending the pass through 4 weeks. The good news is the Steelers are still stout against the run, and should get a bit more lucky moving forward forcing turnovers.

Like I said, take of these numbers what you will. And of course, it's important to remember we're dealing with just four weeks of data. Nevertheless, some intriguing trends are starting to emerge. Most notably and impressively, we may be looking at a Steelers offense that is more capable, diverse and efficient than any Steelers offense in recent history. Let's hope so.

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Ha ha, when I first read it I thought you were saying that Brees was number 3, 4, and 5.

You sure Ike isn’t reacquainting himself with his fingers, he certainly doesn’t use them for catching. - Brian (DaBolts) on "Face Me Ike"

by steelguy99 on Oct 9, 2009 9:55 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I read it the same way! Too funny.

"That's why they play the game."

by B Dub on Oct 9, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have a question for any Steeler fan

I have not seen any Steeler games, so i cannot make any conclusions. But, what has happened to LaMarr Woodley? He has disappeared off of the stat book! I believe he has only 4 tackles, and that’s it.

Yes, i do have him in fantasy football, that’s why i’m asking. Compared to last year and this year, i’m very concerned. So who better to ask, the Steeler faithful who know their own players! Thanks

by Hootman on Oct 9, 2009 10:46 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Where’s Woodley?

http://www.postgameheroes.com/?p=7919

I’d also like to point out that Woodley had 7 games straight last year without a sack.

You sure Ike isn’t reacquainting himself with his fingers, he certainly doesn’t use them for catching. - Brian (DaBolts) on "Face Me Ike"

by steelguy99 on Oct 9, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lol

Thanks! At first, i thought you were messing with me. As i read it though, i got the sense that teams are preparing differently for how they want to pass protect against Harrison and Woodley. They’re still blitzing, getting close, but are coming up empty! That really doesn’t help in fantasy though! I already dropped Merriman, (not comparing) because he’s not producing, but i’m holding out with Woodley!

As a rational fan on the other side of fantasy, i know the importance of pressure etc… that don’t show up on the stat sheet, but helps the team overall for their sacrifice. Perhaps this slow start (stat-wise) can be reversed soon, or at least in the second half of the season?!

Thanks and good luck!

by Hootman on Oct 9, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Woodley’s a monster, I’d stick with him. Supposedly Kevin Smith catches the ball a lot out of the backfield, so Woodley might end up on him again. Besides that though, culpepper has little mobility. Woodley is probably going to rock Cherilus this week.

You sure Ike isn’t reacquainting himself with his fingers, he certainly doesn’t use them for catching. - Brian (DaBolts) on "Face Me Ike"

by steelguy99 on Oct 9, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've given him serious consideration this week against the Lions

He’s got to have a statistical breakout game sometime i’m thinking. What better team than the Lions?! lol But the league i’m in, is pretty unique. Besides the IDP’s, we use the entire 3-4 defense. Woodley qualifies as an end also, which is where i use him. It’s been frustrating, but at least i know whats going on now from the team aspect!

I did bench him last week, so perhaps i should activate him this week. I’ll take the sacks as they come, but at least 5 tackles would be decent to this point.

by Hootman on Oct 9, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Woodley is from the Detroit area, so all his family is coming to see him. Maybe his mom cooks him dinner and he gets 5 sacks.

by Phantaskippy on Oct 9, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If thats the case

then the coaching staff may want to hire her to PS so she can cook for him every week

by kick him in the head on Oct 10, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

On the defense

In their weekly stats post they admitted the San Diego game killed an otherwise middle of the road pass defense for the Steelers. They were expecting improvement in the coming weeks.

At least we don’t face any more great TE’s soon.

by Phantaskippy on Oct 9, 2009 3:54 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Beware 4 weeks of FO’s metrics. They may be better indicators of performance than some standard stats, but they’re not adjusted for opponent at this point and they still have enough variance from football situations unrelated to overall ability that will average out over the course of a season.

We’ve faced four capable offenses without our best DB, including this last game when it was so incredibly out of reach that the defense visibly relaxed. It’s safe to say a DVOA of 93.8% in one quarter is an outlier.

I buy more into the individual player metrics because there are fewer factors affecting the stats. Ward has been open all over the field, Wallace has been very good when we’ve thrown to him (thanks for not challenging that catch, Marty), and Holmes, while inconsistent, is still riding his spectacular opening game. I also have no doubt that Ben’s been the 2nd best QB in the league over 4 games and is at least part of all his WR’s high rankings.

The reason Miller isn’t ranked very highly, by the way, is because he’s only averaging 7.5 yards per catch. Even if he caught every ball thrown his way, he’s still detracting from the most important statistic in the NFL: YPA. Ben is averaging 8.4 YPA overall, but only 6.7 YPA throwing to Miller. Because for as much as I like him, he can’t do shit with the ball in his hands. Whereas Antonio Gates is averaging about 10 YPA because he can get down the field and run over Ike Taylor.

Now, there is a lot of value in catching everything, but a 90% catch rate is not sustainable, much like no one is ever going to bat .500 for a season in the MLB. 75-80% is about as good as you could expect. It’s not fair to combine that with his current 7.5 YPC, but if you did, we’re talking under 6 YPA, which is really bad. He’s valuable and I’m glad to see him being more involved in the passing game, but it’s not like he’s picking up huge chunks of yardage with the ball in his hands.

charity standing orders

by BadMaafala on Oct 9, 2009 8:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Heh,

Norv, not Marty.

As for Heath – he may have a low YPC, but if I’m remembering correctly, he’s getting a lot of first downs or otherwise successful plays. I looked at the SD game, which I figured is his best, where most of the plays he was involved in were either TDs, first downs, or he gained the necessary yardage to be considered a success by DVOA.

I went to the CIN game too, and aside from one catch for no gain, it was the same deal. Maybe he’s being punished very heavily for his fumble and a couple third down plays where he was either short (like a 3rd and 23 where he got 18) or it was incomplete. But at this point, it looks very weird to me that Antonio Gates, who has only somewhat better traditional stats, is graded so much higher by both DYAR and DVOA.

by Desroko on Oct 9, 2009 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Whoops. Cam Cameron is still their OC, right? And LT is still a good running back right???

As for Miller, I don’t have anything to back this up, but there may not be as much emphasis on “successful plays” for the receiver metrics, since pretty much every completed pass is a successful play. If successful play percentage correlated more strongly to winning than picking up large chunks of yardage at a time, completion percentage would be the best standard metric, not YPA. I think YPA for a WR may both correlate to winning more and be more repeatable (i.e. have stronger ties to skill than “luck”). Most of this is talking off the top of my head, though.

charity standing orders

by BadMaafala on Oct 11, 2009 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs


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