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Schedule Analysis: Not As Easy As We Thought

 

When the 2009 schedules were released, the AFC North caught a break by matching up against the weak AFC West and mediocre NFC North. In fact, the Steelers' schedule was rated the 4th easiest in the NFL, the Ravens' schedule was 5th easiest, and the Bengals' was 11th (mainly because they had to play the Ravens and Steelers twice each). These ratings were based on opponents' 2008 winning percentages.

 

At nearly the midpoint of the 2009 season, things are not looking so easy, due to the improvement of teams such as the Vikings, PackersBroncos, and the Bengals themselves. Let's take a look at how the schedules are rated now, based on 2009 opponent winning percentage (opp pct), and more important, which AFC North team has the most favorable schedule remaining.

 

STEELERS Week Opponent Opp Pct Score Result
1 vs Titans 0.143 13-10 W
2 at Bears 0.571 14-17 L
3 at Bengals 0.714 20-23 L
4 vs Chargers 0.571 38-28 W
5 at Lions 0.143 28-20 W
6 vs Browns 0.125 27-14 W
7 vs Vikings 0.875 27-17 W
8 BYE
9 at Broncos 0.857 - -
10 vs Bengals 0.714 - -
11 at Chiefs 0.143 - -
12 at Ravens 0.571 - -
13 vs Raiders 0.250 - -
14 at Browns 0.125 - -
15 vs Packers 0.571 - -
16 vs Ravens 0.571 - -
17 at Dolphins 0.429 - -
Overall 0.461
To date 0.449
Remaining 0.470

 

The Steelers' opponents had a 0.434 winning percentage in 2008, but so far in 2009, they have a 0.461 percentage. The improvement in the aforementioned teams has been softened a bit by the collapse of the Titans and, to a lesser extent, the Dolphins. So far this season, the Steelers are 3-0 against lousy teams and 2-2 against teams with a winning record, both losses coming on the road. If the Steelers maintain this pattern, they will finish 12-4 or 11-5.

RAVENS Week Opponent Opp Pct Score Result
1 vs Chiefs 0.143 38-24 W
2 at Chargers 0.571 31-26 W
3 vs Browns 0.125 34-3 W
4 at Patriots 0.714 21-27 L
5 vs Bengals 0.714 14-17 L
6 at Vikings 0.875 31-33 L
7 BYE
8 vs Broncos 0.857 30-7 W
9 at Bengals 0.714 - -
10 at Browns 0.125 - -
11 vs Colts 1.000 - -
12 vs Steelers 0.714 - -
13 at Packers 0.571 - -
14 vs Lions 0.143 - -
15 vs Bears 0.571 - -
16 at Steelers 0.714 - -
17 at Raiders 0.250 - -
Overall 0.550
To date 0.571
Remaining 0.534

Despite having 12 opponents in common with the Steelers , the Ravens' schedule is much more difficult at 0.550. Among uncommon opponents, the Ravens must play the undefeated Colts and have already lost to the Patriots. Having completed the brutal (0.571) portion of their schedule, the Ravens now face the merely difficult (0.534) portion, which includes the Colts, the Bengals, two games against the Steelers, and a road game against the 4-3 Packers. So far, the Ravens are 2-3 against tough opponents; against this tough schedule, they could finish 10-6.

 

BENGALS Week Opponent Opp Pct Score Result
1 vs Broncos 0.857 7-12 L
2 at Packers 0.571 31-24 W
3 vs Steelers 0.714 23-20 W
4 at Browns 0.125 23-20 W
5 at Ravens 0.571 17-14 W
6 vs Texans 0.625 17-28 L
7 vs Bears 0.571 45-10 W
8 BYE
9 vs Ravens 0.571 - -
10 at Steelers 0.714 - -
11 at Raiders 0.250 - -
12 vs Browns 0.125 - -
13 vs Lions 0.143 - -
14 at Vikings 0.875 - -
15 at Chargers 0.571 - -
16 vs Chiefs 0.143 - -
17 at Jets 0.500 - -
Overall 0.495
To date 0.576
Remaining 0.432

The Bengals schedule, originally rated the toughest of the three, now appears easier than the Ravens' schedule at 0.495. At 0.576, the Bengals have faced a crushing schedule to date, with six of seven games against opponents with winning records. Impressively, the Bengals have compiled a 4-2 record in those six games. Their schedule gets considerably easier at 0.432, with only four opponents having winning records, although three of those games are on the road. Even so, if the Bengals continue at this pace, they could easily finish at 12-4.

Steelers Ravens Bengals
Original Rating 0.434 0.438 0.465
Current Rating 0.461 0.550 0.495
Games To Date 0.449 0.571 0.576
Games Remaining 0.470 0.534 0.432

 

As this summary chart shows, all three teams face considerably more difficult schedules than originally thought, but the Ravens clearly have the most difficult schedule overall and the most difficult remaining schedule. The Steelers still have a relatively easy schedule, but the Bengals have the advantage of being 5-2 with the easiest remaining schedule.

 

(Apologies to Cliff Harris, I see that you have posted something similar to this. I was working on this over the weekend and just updated it with yesterday's games before posting. Sorry for the similarity, but I think the data here is useful.)

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