Lets not panic, A review of the playoff picture
by Mechem on Nov 22, 2009 8:46 PM EST
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PrintYes today's loss was a brutal, stupid, and ultimately poorly timed loss. In a day where the entire AFC North lost, we could have helped secure a division title and instead, probably lost it.
But this poast will examine our Wild Card prospects, which are completely intact. In fact, we are still in the drivers seat. Observe after the hippity hop.
Currently, as it stands we have several probable division "locks"
AFC North: Cincinnatti at 7-3. While we could surpass them, I dont quite see it. This is more of a Wild Card Examination.
AFC East: New England Patriots at 7-3. Two games up over the Dolphins (more on them later). They only have one tough opponent left in New Orleans.
AFC South: Colts at 10-0. Still rolling like Santonio Holmes. The only team behind them is the Jags at 6-4.
Assuming these teams clinch divisions, it leaves the following Wild Card Contenders:
San Diego at 7-3
Denver at 6-4
Jacksonville at 6-4
Miami at 5-5
Baltimore at 5-5
And possibly Houston, who would be 6-4 if they win on MNF.
Lets examine each of these scenarios.
The beauty of San Diego and Denver is this. One of them WILL win the division. More than likely, its San Diego. However, we've had the luck of beating both of those teams. Meaning a tie with them is to our advantage. This pushes both of them out of our way.
Denver is also spiraling out of control. 4 Straight losses and a trip to Indy in two weeks do not bode well.
Jacksonville is going to be in the thick of it, yet also plays New England and Indy before the season's end. Good news for us. In addition, most all of their wins have been against lousy opponents, and they have been plastered by those who are superior. However, they are Wild Card enemy #2
Miami is in the hunt, but behind us. We get the chance to put them down when we play them in the upcoming weeks. A win there would eliminate them from stealing our Wild Card spot.
And we control Baltimore's destiny. Beat them twice, and they are gone. Even once would likely hurt their chances.
Houston is the other big wild card threat. A win on MNF puts them at our record, 6-4. They too however play New England, and Indy.
Our two biggest WC threats then, are Jacksonville and Houston. The beauty of this problem, is they play eachother one more time, and face the tough common opponents of Indy and New england. This puts us at an advantage.
So friends, please put down the rope. Turn the car off and open the garage door. We have an extremely positive chance of taking the 5th seed in the league. And division is not over yet. We all know what this team can do when they play their best, they didnt today, but if they do the rest of this year, Trophy #7 is still very much available.
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isn't Cincy 7-3
"From time to time gunfighters get shot."-Mike Tomlin the third greatest Steelers coach
You're right that it's definitely not "rope time."
But the Steelers are licking some serious wounds as they head into Baltimore next Sunday night. We hope that Ben can shake out the cobwebs and play. But Kemoeatu looks like he’s out and Polamalu is still a “maybe.” As a team, the Steelers are going to have to step up with a huge effort against the Ravens. It won’t be easy but definitely will be ugly. Maybe this time we’ll come out on top.
The only reason I think we win next week
is cause it’s a night game. we play really really really well at night.
Bring a towel to the game. Black or gold or yellow. If you don't have one buy one, If you can't buy one, dye one!!!
by SoCalSteelerFan on Nov 22, 2009 9:10 PM EST up reply actions
owned by the CHEFS.
Yes, it’s rope time!
The very existence of flamethrowers proves that some time, somewhere, someone said to themselves, "You know, I want to set those people over there on fire, but I'm just not close enough to get the job done."
-George Carlin
Hardly owned
They produced nearly half their offense in the last 10 minutes of the game, scored mainly off turnovers and ST.
Hardly an owning.
Reality is...
that we are not the team we were last year. The above article would be true if this was the 2008 Steelers team, but it is not.
-Our Identity is 60/40 pass
-Troy is our defensive MVP and he is not healthy
-Our turnover diff is terrible
-we don’t close
-Gay is not McFadden
-Timmons does not have the instincts of Foote
-2008’s clutch 3rd down receiver was Nate Washington, very underated!
I wrote a post earlier this year titled 45 minute men, well it was 30 on Sunday.
Fact of the matter is we will struggle to make the playoffs especially if we havnt even played Baltimore yet.
I don't understand the Foote nostalgia
I don’t understand the Foote comment here. It’s not like Foote leaving has hurt the run defense which is still spectacular. In fact, it’s better than it was at this time last year because our offense is actually scoring some points and teams are throwing against us more.
In terms of pass coverage and blitzing Timmons is just out and out better than Foote. Keep in mind that Foote only has 3 career interceptions in 8 years of play and has never managed to record more than 4 sacks in a season.. Timmons already has 4 this year. In 8 years Foote only has 7 forced fumbles; Timmons has 3 already this year. Last year when they shared snaps Timmons had more tackles, more sacks, more interceptions, and as many pass deflections as Foote.
Foote was a great player for the Steelers for two Super Bowl runs, but he’s pretty one dimensional. Given that Timmons is still incredibly young (he’s only 23), his upside is considerable. Hell, his present is pretty damn impressive.
by BluegrassSteeler on Nov 22, 2009 9:41 PM EST up reply actions
Foote Nostalgia or not
we are average and not a title contender. If the Steelers make the playoffs its one and done at best. I am a football purest and I appreciate good play when I see it and the brand we are playing right now is not championship worthy. Granted things can change over time but as of right now we can lose to anyone.
As for my Foote comments, my point is that the D is not the same(Foote, Troy, Smith, and McFadden all missing)…that is a different unit out there. Timmons is very raw, plenty of upside but raw.
We have it coming vs Balt. We lose that one and we are toast.
We are certainly a D in transition, that’s for sure. Farrior’s noticeably slowing down, Townsend is on his last legs, Smith only has a couple of years left, Big Snack might be in his last season as Clark might too.
McFadden and Foote are just the beginning of a massive rebuilding project on the defensive sid of the ball over the next 3 years or so. Timmons, the Wood, and Ziggy are going to be the veterans on this squad by then.
by BluegrassSteeler on Nov 23, 2009 12:49 AM EST up reply actions
Don't be negative rejoice because we aren't hot yet
which is good because we still have a chance. It’s not the team thats hot in the regular season that wins it all. It’s the team thats hot come playoff time that wins.
by Steel in FL on Nov 23, 2009 10:40 AM EST up reply actions
Were not an average team
Look at what we did to the Vikings.
You are as good as the average of your best day and your worst. On our best day, we can be up on the Chargers by a pile. On our Best day, we can tightwalk with a tough team and beat them. On our best day we can whoop the 2nd best team in the NFC.
On our worst day, we lose due to our own stupid mistakes. And on our worst day. WEVE ONLY LOST BY 6 POINTS!!!!
Were a great team that just needs to remember how to play great.
good job mechem!!!!
Thanks for the info. I was too depressed to look this stuff up. We have to pull another 2005 to get it done this year. Next week is equivalent to the Chicago game in 2005. Let’s see if we can do it.
I'm all about the positive here....
and your points are all great Mechem. Good positive vibes, which we are otherwise not seeing today.
I think the Commish is right that it’s not 2008, this is 2009. So rather than have to worry about the in’s and out’s of the playoff picture, I think we need to take care of our own business first. The rest will fall into place, or it won’t – but if we don’t fix our own issues first, then it doesn’t matter anyway.
Good info though, I like that part about Jacksonville and Houston still playing each other – good info to keep in mind.
We have a shot at the playoffs!
Will it be tough to beat the Ravens, sure it will. But we are not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs yet.
What is wrong with all of you people? Sure it was a damn disappointing game today, but how about supporting our team!
"I believe the game is designed to reward the ones who hit the hardest. If you can't take it, you shouldn't play." Jack Lambert
by LongTimeSteelersFan on Nov 23, 2009 12:23 AM EST reply actions
Tough loss for sure...
But this is the big picture, brought to us by Mechem. We’re still not out of it, and all it takes is a ticket to the dance, and then we’ll see what we can do with it. Thanks Mechem.
'I’ve learned to become a flat-liner. There’s a lot out there that’ll make your heart jump if you allow it."
-Coach Tomlin
Observations from Calgary
1. The 3rd and 2 pitch to MM was beyond mind boggling. The chiefs interior D line couldn’t have stop Mendy and Dave Johnson off tackle/guard. They were tired. I think Charlie audible to that play.
2. WE PASS WAY TOO MUCH!!! Throw the rock more than 30 times your going to have interceptions, fumbles, etc… Law of averages
3. Defense stop going for the kill shot and make a solid tackle. Had Jamal Charles for a 3 yd gain and turns into 11 with Timmons and Carter going for the kill
4. WE CAN’T PASS OUT OF THE EMPTY BACKFIELD OR WITH MM blocking. Each week teams see it and they blitz a corner or safety with a free shot at Ben or send the LB like D. Johnson who ran over MM, Ray is licking his chops. The chiefs should have had at least 6 or 7 sacks.
5. Ben, the greatest QB of all time Joe Montana learned to use Roger Craig and Rathman. Mendy gave you 12 yds on a 2 yd pass, keep going back to it. It forces the LB’s from underneath coverage and opens up for Heath and Hines.
6. Arians, Oline Coach, and Special Teams Coach… If Mike has half of a mind, there is some serious evaluation being done on potential replacements. Marc Trestman is available. Way better than Arians will ever be. Ben is running Arians like a little kid.
That is an interesting statement.
Ben is running Arians like a little kid.
Especially when you consider that Ben is our 100 million dollar QB, and that Cowher and Whiz (who are both gone) didn’t seem to get along with him.
"I believe the game is designed to reward the ones who hit the hardest. If you can't take it, you shouldn't play." Jack Lambert
by LongTimeSteelersFan on Nov 23, 2009 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
You forgot to say "eh"
But anyway heres my thoughtages. While not all on this poast I’ll comment:
1. I agree. If you are gonna run a pitch, why not FWP who had a solid day running? Or better yet, why not something with shenanigans like a Mike Wallace end around or just simply Mendy up the gut?
2. Well yes and no. When the pass is netting 400 yards, pass it. Bens first pick wasnt his fault. And his second, I have to see again but I think he was going to throw it OOB over the top and got hit on the arm. Still, this does play to your point. But the run wasnt super effective.
3. I like killing. Jamaal Charles just played really well.
4. MM blocks alright, better than FWP. Empty backfield works as long as there is a quick route to hit.
5. I agree 100%. Please please for the love of aunt paula pass the checkdown to your playmakers.
6. just let ben call the offense IMO.
The problem isn’t that we can’t make the playoffs, it’s that the steelers aren’t a playoff-caliber team right now.
You sure Ike isn’t reacquainting himself with his fingers, he certainly doesn’t use them for catching. - Brian (DaBolts) on "Face Me Ike"
The ole’ chicken and egg argument here.
I think personally they ARE a playoff caliber team that needs to start point that gun at the other team instead of their own foot.
To be totally honest I think we have to also realize, our only losses have been no more than 6 points with most of them being 3. Its a very realistic point to make. We’ve never had our ass handed to us. Instead, we typically hand our ass to ourselves.
The problem is, we are very good at handing our ass to ourselves.
The steelers can be an excellent team, but until they play to their potential every game they won’t win the superbowl. The steelers played to their potential a lot last year.
You sure Ike isn’t reacquainting himself with his fingers, he certainly doesn’t use them for catching. - Brian (DaBolts) on "Face Me Ike"
Well there is still time to do that. And as we know come January everybody is 0-0. Just requires a little more work to get there.
But you know well as I do, if they get to the playoffs they most likely will be beating people over the heads. Tomlin’s got one barely loss in the postseason outta 4 games, so lets get him there.
This could in theory prove to be good. Do it 05 style, let the other big names have the spotlight, come in with the underdog card despite being defending champs… etc.
Jacksonville right now is ahead of us
As well as Denver due to AFC record.
The Steelers are going to have to win all of the remaining AFC games for sure.
That leaves GB as the only possible loss they can afford.
The good news is as the last 5 games of every season progresses this always changes.
If you buy a foreign made product you give money to a person who will not be buying an American made produdt that you get paid to make. Think about it next time you're at the store.
Denver is not
Head to head takes precedence. Denver is 6-4 also and played us, and lost.
Houston just lost tonight which helps us a lot.
If I'm not mistaken
It would go three way tie-breaker to determine the first spot. Then two way for the second spot. Meaning if Jacksonville won the three way then the Steelers would take the last one head to head from Denver by virtue of head-to-head. If Denver won the 3 way then Jax would beat the Steelers by virute of Conference winning percentage.
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
Ok looked at it
It looks liek it would be Pittsburgh and Jacksonville as WCs right now. I’m pretty sure.
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
I got it backwards
The Steelers would be elliminated in the 3 way.
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
Ok SOMEBODY just called me
and said I had it right the first time. He said that the tie breakers are for determining one playoff slot. If there is a three way and the tie breaker can determine one winner then that is the end of the 3 way and the 2 way is started for the next slot. If the 3 way ends up have 2 still tied the the thrid is eliminated and 2 way is for determining rank of the remaining two. It makes my head hurt so I’m not going to even attempt. At least I know that games can end in a tie and I never played QB for the Eagles. :)
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
And for the record
Jacksonville still has a much tougher road to hoe, and they’ve got like 0 wins against quality opponents.
MJD is their only weapon. At all. He cant carry them.
Dang you said they be hoeing the road
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
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