The number that does not lie
by TheCommish on Nov 23, 2009 6:07 PM EST
Email
PrintI think I have heard it all in the last few weeks as losses bring out worst in everybody. Why, seems to be the most popular question. Arians, Special Teams, Tomlin, and no Troy seem to be the most popular answers. Well I have heard it all. In my annual trip to the Burgh last week against Cincy I even heard some Steelers fans mutter “we should have put in Batch” as I left. This is the reason why they were sitting in the seats and not standing on the sidelines. Let’s look at some numbers.
Ninth in the NFL in total defense and 7th in the NFL in total offense; sound like a playoff team? Nope, that’s an 8-8 2006 Steelers squad that was 28th in turnover differential.
This year we are 6th in total offense and number one overall in total defense. Does that sound like a playoff team? Well we are -5 in turnover differential which is good for 27th in the league. The answer is No with that turnover diff.
Arians is not fumbling, Tomlin has not dropped any ints, Special Teams well?, and the D is number one overall without Troy. I have heard Debo is not performing. He is third in the NFL in sacks! 2008’s team was 7-3 with an even TO diff through 11 weeks last season. We closed +10 to finish the season which includes +6 in the playoffs. Last year and this year’s teams both forced 14 takeaways through 11 weeks.
In the NFL the difference between winning and losing comes down to a few plays regardless of who is on the field. A bad spot here and a missed tackle there can be costly, but nothing is more costly than the turnovers. Luck played its role in last years championship. We were not perfect or an all time great. You can look for all the solutions and anecdotes you would like to solve the problems. It is simple to me, create turnovers and hold on to the ball we win, turn it over like we have and we lose!
24 comments
|
9 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Any argument you make will take you to the roots
If Ben throws a INT then it is ‘why didn’t we run the ball’.
If some RB fumbles then the retort will be why didn’t we pass (why “play not to lose”)
And each and every post will end with “Fire Bruce Arians”
The worst thing about the loss yesterday was we got burned by Matt Cassel, the same QB who had the deer in the headlights look against us last year.
This deserves a rec
People should read this. I said it earlier today in a post that turnovers are probably the best correlation to winning and losing. Even if we are thousands of times better than the Chiefs we will not win if we do not protect the ball. You cannot turn over the ball. Forcing the other team to turn the ball over is nice, but not as important as protecting it.
Nice write up, stats, and writing to back up a solid fanpost.
Wall of Shame
-"I’m glad we play Pitt twice, and not Tenn this year." - Brownie's Year
-"BB is ok (slightly overated)…but he is NO Kyle Orton! I’ll take Kyle over Ben any day" - Bronco_Fan_Tom
-PIT 24 KC 27
couldn't agree more...rec'd post
we out played our opponents in 3 of our 4 losses(I thought both teams looked a bit flat in the second Bengals game) I can only hope we’ve been saving up the luck factor in this department to get our differential up and make our late season push for the playoffs
"Now that I'm here, I don't want to just be here, I want to be here for a long time." Hines Ward, 1998 4th round draft pick.
by kick him in the head on Nov 24, 2009 9:26 AM EST up reply actions
True but there's a bit more to the equation
A turnover is often the worst example of a crummy offensive scheme—like when your QB throws directly into the coverage or when teams know that you almost always throw the ball on 1st down. We need a lot more creativity in our selection of plays, especially in the Red Zone. Either that or Bettis needs to come back out of retirement. Score more TDs and the turnovers still hurt, but not as much.
I agree turnovers are probably THE deciding factor in determining good teams, but, there are other factors as well. Such as respectable ST and better use of the TE. Somehow Tomlin & the other coaches have to find a way to tighten up the return teams or the team will end up having a mediocre season by Steeler standards. Also Heath needs to be more involved in the passing game. I understand that young players need to be developed but why isn’t Miller seeing more passes in more places on the field, That said last weekend wasn’t the worst thing to have happened considering how the rest of the division did, now the coaches and players have been given the opportunity to right a wallowing ship before it’s to late and I for one Believe they can and will. Go Steelers.
What more would you like to see from Heath
He has already surpassed his season totals for all of 2008?
Heath Miller
2008 Season
48 rec 514yrds 10.7yrds/rec 3tds
2009
54rec 492 9.1yrds/rec 5tds although he does have one fumble and a tip leading to an int
that tip was horrible
poor guy’s gonna have nightmares about that one for awhile. His overall production is well suited to our offense. He had quite a few catches against KC, atleast I thought he did…
"Now that I'm here, I don't want to just be here, I want to be here for a long time." Hines Ward, 1998 4th round draft pick.
by kick him in the head on Nov 24, 2009 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
Rare Mistake
Given all that Heath has contributed to this offense, in what really should be a Pro Bowl season for him, I’m more than willing to forgive that tip. That’s a ball he normally catches. It must also be noted that it WAS thrown a bit behind him, so it’s not all on him.
Who among the top players has NOT made a devastating miscue this season — Hines and Rashard fumble inside the five; Ben throws and fumbles at least three pick sixes; Wallace gets stripped; Santonio with drops in the endzone; Troy and Deebo get tagged with personal fouls (Troy multiple times, even in the same game). Damn, I’m gonna have to stop — I’m depressing myself.
by Citizen of Steeler Nation on Nov 27, 2009 10:06 AM EST up reply actions
Nudder Rec
People in the game thread freaked when I said the team only had a handful of mistakes, but those are exactly the sort of mistakes I was talking about.
In every single game, there will be dropped passes, sacks, missed tackles, bad play calls, INTs, fumbles, bad kicks, or other mistakes. These things happen.
The problem we had on Sunday was not our entire defense falling apart. It was not Arians calling a bad game. It was not the lack of Troy, or Ben playing flat. It was 5-7 mistakes, which is maybe 2 or 3 more than usual. Unfortunately for us, the Chiefs made us pay dearly for at least half of them. The punishment for a tipped pass is normally the loss of a down. On Sunday, we paid a much stiffer penalty. For whatever reason, little boo-boos turned into gaping wounds. Some credit goes to the Chiefs, but some of that is just dumb luck.
It’s true: we lost. But it was only on 5-7 mistakes – turnovers being the most costly.
We pass too much just like 06
Luv Ben to death, however, we limit turnovers when we put the ball less in the air. Even if the pass is there, we need to run to keep defenses honest. Did u c Peyton suc Ray up to the line on a play fake to Adai and complete a 20 yds pass over the middle.
Passing over 30 or more times will result in a tipped or deflected pass for an interception. It amazes me the after getting a 1st down running, Arians comes out in a 5 receiver set (no backs) and passes in the 4th qtr. Run the rock, the defense is tired from having to rush Ben.
After a 1st down running...
Try a play-action pass while the defense is thinking about the run.
Whoops, can’t play-action out of an empty backfield. :-(
I want to post this in the "Is Tomlin a great coach" thread.
He’s been saying that since week 1.
Cause pressure…
Force TO’s…
Score TD’s instead of FG’s…
Steelers win.
Its a simple equation but it has to be followed to the letter…
We aren’t following it to the letter.
Its not that complicated…
our offense
can someone show me the stats of how our offense breaks down? what rank are we in rushing? passing? overall?
thanx
You asked...
We are #6 in total yards, #5 in passing, #17 in rushing. Oh, and only #15 in points scored. That could be part of the problem.
Miami is not struggling at all offensively. Their defense stinks. 11th in points scored, 7th in fewest turnovers given up, but their defense is 27th in scoring defense, and 29th in forcing turnovers.
If you are 5-5 with that bad of a defense, your offense is not the problem.
They could be as good as the Steelers with Kordel if they had a good defense.
The wildcat works in Miami because they have the line, running backs and playbook to do it. Just like not many teams could have success throwing it like Indy does.
by Phantaskippy on Nov 25, 2009 4:57 AM EST up reply actions
what is New englands, New orleans and colts running stats? throw in the vikes too..
by nycsteelerfan on Nov 25, 2009 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
Great running stats site.
Football Outsiders has some great running stats. Their adjusted O-line yards weights the first 4 yards gained at full yardage, losses at 120%, yards from 5-10 at 50%, and yards beyond 10 don’t count.
(example, a 3 yard run counts for 3 yards, a 25 yard run counts for 7 (4 for first 4, 3 for the next 6 and nothing else) a five yard loss would count as -6 yards.
It decently shows how well your team does in initial push and getting a RB to the second level.
RB yards is just the flat out standard running average, 10+ shows how many of your rushing yards come from past 10 yards. Stuffed shows how often a teams running plays gain 0 or negative yards.
The Steelers get stuffed 21% of their runs, and 22% of our rushing yards are from past ten yards. That gives you a pretty good idea that our team is as likely to get a big gain as get stuffed. Our running game is not bad in average yards, but it is inconsistent, often leaving us in 2nd and long or breaking a long run.
For comparison the Patriots get stuffed on 14% of their plays and only 13% of their run yards are from after ten yards. They may not get as many big gains, but they don’t get stuffed much either.
Miami doesn’t get stuffed, but they get big plays more than the Pats, they are a big time running offense, which is why I tend to blame their defense more than others. 81% power success rate doesn’t hurt either.
Minnesotta is all about Peterson’s big runs. They get stuffed a ton and 31% of their yards are after 10, Chris Johnson and the Titans are the highest with 41% of their yards coming from past 10, and they also get stuffed a lot.
For just pure stats, check out Pro Football Reference just scroll down a tad to team offense and you can sort the columns for any desired stats to see where the teams line up, they through in a stat line for the league average, and that is nice to see where everyone stands.
I’m working on a project right now of looking through and seeing exactly what the Steelers are doing on different downs and situations, to see if the pass/run balance is more dictated by situation or philosophy, hopefully it turns out to be worthwhile.
by Phantaskippy on Nov 25, 2009 7:25 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, NO and Indy.
New Orleans has run 4 more times than they have passed this year. Only 5 other teams can say that (Jets, Panthers, Dolphins, Bengals, Titans). Their Football Outsider stats look really good too, NO, Bal, Mia and Atl are the best run teams in my opinion. It’s easy to say they run out the clock when they lead, but they do that as well as the 2005 Steelers, and they do about 45% runs early in the game.
Indy I have no clue what to make of. They have the #1 scoring defense, but are 15th in yards allowed, they are bad at run defense (Football outsiders check Defensive line stats for the defensive version of the O-line stats) but teams don’t run because they are behind, they give up some pass yards but the fewest passing TD’s, and the biggest stat to me is they consistently lose in time of possession. Teams that do that lose in the playoffs.
for running the ball Indy just isn’t very good. For a team as dangerous passing as they are they should have better running stats just because they should not be facing 8-9 man fronts ever.
by Phantaskippy on Nov 25, 2009 7:43 PM EST up reply actions
The ol' Chicken or the Egg argument
Are the turnovers caused by crappy play calls and coaching? Or by the players not executing the play calls?
Yes we should have ran more, but the pass was working, so pass the ball. If Mike Wallace doesnt fumble, we have more points. If Heath catches that ball like he does 99.9% of the time, we probably get points and keep them from scoring.
Its all about execution. Most of our turnovers are a direct result of somebody simply screwing up.
In 2006 that was all Ben’s fault. This is different. This is correctable. 2006 had a Ben that wasn’t up to form all year. This year, he’s elite. His players just need to help him out.
chicken salad sandwich argument
it’s a mixture of both
"Now that I'm here, I don't want to just be here, I want to be here for a long time." Hines Ward, 1998 4th round draft pick.
by kick him in the head on Nov 25, 2009 9:33 AM EST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
"Thoughtful discussion with a sense of history."
Art Rooney Jr.
"Level-headed thinking." Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
