AFC Playoff Picture Gets Even Murkier After Sunday

by Blitzburgh on Nov 30, 2009 3:31 AM EST Comment 56 comments

Editor's Note - it's been correctly pointed out that some of the tie-breaker commentary included below is not 100% correct. My apologies, but for now, I'll be leaving it as it was posted so as not to spend unnecessary time combing through each and every scenario. Too many games left on the schedule for that. Let's see how the chips fall these next couple of weeks before really digging in with our speculation about how the AFC playoff picture may or may not end up come the conclusion of Week 17. Thanks as always for the conversation and feedback. - Blitz - (Michael B.)

***************

The Pittsburgh Steelers lost their third straight on Sunday night against the Baltimore Ravens. It was one helluva entertaining game, with fans across the country having to fight back the onset of cardiac arrest on multiple occasions throughout the game. But I'll save my thoughts on the heartbreaking loss for just a bit. Too emotionally exhausted for now. First, let's take a look at the AFC Playoff picture now that all but one the Monday night 5game has been played in Week 12. The following are the playoff teams if the season ended today. (AFC record in parenthesis)

Indianapolis Colts - 11-0 (7-0)
Cincinnati Bengals - 8-3 (6-3)
San Diego Chargers - 8-3 (6-3)
New England Patriots 7-3 (5-3)
Denver Broncos - 7-4 (5-3)
Jacksonville Jaguars - 6-5 (5-2)
Baltimore Ravens - 6-5 (6-4)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 6-5 (4-4)
Miami Dolphins - 5-6 (3-4)
Tennessee Titans - 5-6 (3-6)
New York Jets 5-6 (4-5)
Houston Texans - 5-6 (4-5)

Firstly, let's all agree that the Patriots are going to win the AFC East. Even with a loss tomorrow they're two clear of the Jets and Dolphins. I therefore am not really factoring them in to the Wild Card scenario as of now. That could change after next Sunday if they were to lose to the Saints tomorrow night then to the Dolphins next Sunday. For now though they're in plenty good shape.

My analysis on the current standings and what's likely to transpire moving forward, after the jump...

The Pretenders

(teams that may very well be playing great ball and in contention mathematically, but are still in what I'd consider a very unfavorable situation heading in to the final five weeks) don't have what it takes I don't believe to keep hanging in there until the final week)

New York Jets. An impressive win for them today against the visiting Panthers. The Jets schedule is actually fairly favorable, but they've proven already that they're not nearly consistent enough to win their next five or even four of the next five. I don't see them as a factor.
Houston Texans. Another heartbreaking loss for Houston at the hands of the Colts. Peyton Manning mounts a rally down 17 points and easily finishes Houston in the 4th quarter to improve the Colts' record to 11-0.
Tennessee Titans. I'd absolutely dread seeing Tennessee on my favorite team's schedule this next five weeks, but in all likelihood, Tennessee just fell one game too deep in the hole to start the year. The Titans have to win out to pass the Steelers - as the Steelers will more than likely get to 9 wins at worst. The Titans also are in the hole bigtime in terms of their conference record. They simply can't afford to lose again, and even if they do win out, they'd need some significant help from the teams they're chasing. If the Titans can win at Indianapolis next weekend though, then all bets are off - they could very well finish the improbably off and get to 10 wins after starting 0-6. I think they likely get tripped up next week and then be in an insurmountable hole. That said, man, it's been crazy watching the transformation of that team.
Miami Dolphins. New England travels to Miami next weekend with a chance to close the door down on the division most likely. Miami is also dangerous and very formidable in a single game situation, but I think they lack the quarterback play to make a strong final push. Chad Henne thre interceptions on Miami's final three drives on Sunday. Ouch. Miami does have one slight advantage in that all five of their remaining games are against teams they are chasing in the standings. Win all five and they'd likely sneak in. I just don't see that happening given their team and schedule.

The Contenders

Denver Broncos. A huge win for Denver on Thanksgiving. The victory over the Giants steadies the ship following a disastrous month of November.

The good news for Denver is....they still have two games left with the Kansas City Chiefs, and one against the lowly Raiders. That's likely three wins to get them to 10.
The bad news for Denver is.... 1) their other two games are extremely difficult road matchups. First, at Indy in Week 14, then at Philly in Week 16....2) they also don't hold tiebreakers against the Steelers and Ravens. That means they have to finish a full game clear of both teams to edge them out. We do know this - the Steelers and Ravens can't both finish 11-5 because of the simple fact that the teams play each other once more. So, for Denver, it's pretty simple - win those three winnable games against your divisional foes and then win either one of the two against Philly or Indy and you're 99% assure of being in with 11 wins, provided Jacksonville doesn't run the table, which is almost certainly not going to happen.

Baltimore Ravens. Congratulations to them for hanging tough and then making just enough plays late to trip up the Steelers.

The good news for Baltimore is.... They have a solid 6-4 AFC record and still have the awful Raiders at home in Week 17. The other good news regarding their schedule is consecutive home tilts against the Lions and Bears following a trip to Green Bay this weekend.
The bad news for Baltimore is....Well, frankly, there isn't tons of bad news for the Ravens following their huge victory over the Steelers. They must, however, find a way to win next weekend at Lambeau Field. That sounds doable, but the Packers are definitely playing much better football at the moment than they were a month ago. The Packers also will be coming off 10 days rest in wake of a very easy win over the Lions. The Ravens of course will be coming off a war against the Steelers the previous Sunday. Finally, and this is actually fairly troubling if you're a Ravens fan - the Steelers can afford to lose one more game actually under a lot of different scenarios, but if it were to boil down to the Ravens and Steelers competing for a final playoff spot, Pittsburgh would just have to make sure that that lone loss didn't come to anybody but the Green Bay Packers. If the Steelers handle Oakland, Cleveland, Baltimore at home, then Miami in Week 17, Pittsburgh would get the edge over Baltimore in tiebreakers. Why? Because they'd finish with an 8-4 AFC record compared to 7-5 for Baltimore.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The good news for Jacksonville is.....They control their own destiny. With five AFC games remaining on their schedule and only 2 losses thus far in conference, the Jags are guaranteed to make it to the playoffs if they win out. Frankly, they'd probably be okay if they were to win five of six, particularly if the loss came against anybody but Miami or Houston. The Jags also have their next three at home, which never hurts. The first two are against the Texans and the Dolphins, meaning consecutive wins and they've really crippled two of the 'chasers' in the Wild Card pack. Finally, they close with the Browns, who will likely have totally shut it down for the year by Week 17.
The bad news for Jacksonville is....Well, in addition to them really not being that good and one of the league's youngest teams (13 rookies see the field regularly for them), Jacksonville has both New England and Indianapolis left on their schedule. Jacksonville is a solid and improving young team, but I'm pretty sure they're not quite ready to beat both of those teams, let alone either one of them. I have a real hard time seeing them get to 10 wins quite frankly. 10 could very well be enough for them though if they win their next two, so for now I'll consider them contenders.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The good news for Pittsburgh is....1)Their schedule sets up nicely over the course of this next three weeks. They return home to host the Raiders next Sunday, then travel to Cleveland to take on the Browns on Thursday night. With Shaun Rogers out for the year, there's very little outside of Joshua Cribbs that should give Pittsburgh any trouble. They then have 10 days to rest and prepare for Green Bay at home. Don't get me wrong, I am taking nothing for granted with this year's Steelers team, but I think it's safe to say that they'll win their next two. I wrote about it recently and I'll say it again, I think having that 10 days between the Browns and Packers game will be huge....2) the other good news is that the Steelers still control their destiny over the Ravens. Win out and they're in. As I outlined earlier, that doesn't even need to happen though. The Steelers can afford to lose one more and still beat out the Ravens so long as that one loss comes at the hands of the Packers and not the Raiders, Browns or Dolphins....3) It's also worth noting that the Steelers hold the tiebreaker edge over the Chargers, who currently hold a two game edge over Pittsburgh. However, San Diego still has road games at Dallas and Tennessee left, as well as a home tilt against the Bengals in three weeks. It's not inconceivable I suppose for San Diego to lose three more games and subsequently their lead in the AFC West. That, in turn, would put them in some trouble if Pittsburgh could get to 10 wins.
The bad news for Pittsburgh is.... Well, let's just say things aren't bouncing their way this year. It just may simply not be their year, as frustrating as that may be to swallow. However, the Steelers should get Troy Polamalu back for the home stretch and hopefully Ben Roethlisberger will be ready to work some magic when he plays next Sunday. You can't count out the champs until they're officially on the mat. We're not there just yet despite Sunday night's loss to the Ravens.

Blitz's Playoff Predictions

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Comments

<3

Good Game.

You have to hate losing more than you love winning.

by Mr MaLoR on Nov 30, 2009 3:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

yup,

great game. Was your teams turn I guess to come out on the long end of the stick in these close games.

Freel free to email me anytime at behindthesteelcurtain@gmail.com with questions, suggestions, complaints, etc, or to just say what's up. -Michael Bean (Blitz)

by Blitzburgh on Nov 30, 2009 3:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Only problem is

It took us more than 4 quarters at home to beat your team without it’s two best players. Not taking anything away from what Dixon was able to do (played very, very well) but the win was indeed not against Ben and Troy in Baltimore. If the Ravens can show me they can win next week against GB, I will then have confidence that we can possibly show up in Pittsburgh and go for the season sweep.

Until then, I am still worried that you match-up better with us than we do with you guys.

You have to hate losing more than you love winning.

by Mr MaLoR on Nov 30, 2009 3:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i agree

Baltimore’s going to need to play an outstanding game to win the next one and I think they’re going to need that win to sneak in to the playoffs.

Freel free to email me anytime at behindthesteelcurtain@gmail.com with questions, suggestions, complaints, etc, or to just say what's up. -Michael Bean (Blitz)

by Blitzburgh on Nov 30, 2009 3:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i will say this though

Not sure we’re better than you all without Polamalu. Ray Rice is really, really good- better than I thought – and he’s too much to handle for guys like T. Carter, R. Clark and J. Farrior. Polamalu probably limits his effectiveness tonight though.

Freel free to email me anytime at behindthesteelcurtain@gmail.com with questions, suggestions, complaints, etc, or to just say what's up. -Michael Bean (Blitz)

by Blitzburgh on Nov 30, 2009 3:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

When Troy came back

I stated multiple times on Baltimore Beatdown that we needed to stop relying on Rice so much when it comes down to playing Pitt, because of Polamalu. I felt that with Troy out there, he would be the one who sniffed out most of the dump off passes to Rice and we would not have as much success.

You have to hate losing more than you love winning.

by Mr MaLoR on Nov 30, 2009 4:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yea

He destroyed us with his shiftiness. I tip my cap to Rice – definitely one of the most exciting complete players in football under the age of 25. He’s a major weapon that could really hurt a team like Indianpolis in a single game situation.

Freel free to email me anytime at behindthesteelcurtain@gmail.com with questions, suggestions, complaints, etc, or to just say what's up. -Michael Bean (Blitz)

by Blitzburgh on Nov 30, 2009 4:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If you do not mind, Blitz

Can you tell me why you think the Ravens were not able to get a single sack on Dixon tonight? Was it his elusiveness, ability to get rid of the ball quickly? Or was our pass rush not strong at all?

You have to hate losing more than you love winning.

by Mr MaLoR on Nov 30, 2009 3:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i think it was him being super committed to getting rid of the ball early

In fact, I think there were a few instances when he could have pulled it down and made a pass rusher miss and run. He decided to throw it quickly instead. Also, the Steelers offensive line played a really great game for most of the contest. That said, you’re blitzing LBs, Ray Lewis in particular, caused some significant problems for Pittsburgh’s offense.

Freel free to email me anytime at behindthesteelcurtain@gmail.com with questions, suggestions, complaints, etc, or to just say what's up. -Michael Bean (Blitz)

by Blitzburgh on Nov 30, 2009 4:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I was throughly impressed with Mendenhall to

It was very rare earlier tonight to see him ever get knocked backwards. Even though he did not have the stats that could have possibly won the game for you, his running style tonight was perfect for controlling the clock and allowing for your defense to get the win, which is a typical style that the Steelers run.

I do think he needs to limit his tendencies to try and spin off of tackles, as most of the time he did that he ended up with his back to the defense and took away some opportunities to maybe gain another 1,2,3 yards.

You have to hate losing more than you love winning.

by Mr MaLoR on Nov 30, 2009 4:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

it was good for him to have some success against Baltimore after getting TKOd by them last year. The Steelers ability to run the ball somewhat effectively kept this game closer than it might have been if the Steelers had to find more success through the air.

Ravens defense is definitely not that scary anymore, imo.

Freel free to email me anytime at behindthesteelcurtain@gmail.com with questions, suggestions, complaints, etc, or to just say what's up. -Michael Bean (Blitz)

by Blitzburgh on Nov 30, 2009 4:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think it is unfair to say that though

On a note of not being able to stop each and every play like we used to in the past, I will agree with. But our ability to still force QB’s to throw passes that they do not want to and still have the ability to not stop, but slow down the run is enough to give offenses problems.

One thing I think you should definitely be impressed with is our performance against Mike Wallace tonight. Even though he is a rookie in the 3rd WR spot, I thought it was a great accomplishment to hold him to zero catches. I will flat out tell you that when we were winning 14-10, I looked at my dad and brother at the game and told them I had a terrible feeling that Wallace was going to burn us for a 50-60 yard play. Taking that away was impressive…..imo.

You have to hate losing more than you love winning.

by Mr MaLoR on Nov 30, 2009 4:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dixon missed Wallace a few times

I think the speed of the game forced Dixon to barely miss Wallace on two deep balls. The first in the back of the endzone – a catch Wallace maybe should have had, but definitely was a tougher catch than it needed to be due to Dixon being a smidge late with it and throwing it with a bit too much trajectory. The other he had Wallace again but his throw drifted out of bounds. Ravens did shut him down but I think Big Ben hits one of those two passes Dixon just missed out on tonight.

Freel free to email me anytime at behindthesteelcurtain@gmail.com with questions, suggestions, complaints, etc, or to just say what's up. -Michael Bean (Blitz)

by Blitzburgh on Nov 30, 2009 4:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

He scares me.

You have to hate losing more than you love winning.

by Mr MaLoR on Nov 30, 2009 4:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And I will say that your defense still scares me

LeBeau IMO has the best blitz packages in the league, better than what Rex Ryan had in Baltimore. Our O-Line is one of the strongest and fastest in the league and your OLB were coming from directions that we were definitely not prepared for.

You have to hate losing more than you love winning.

by Mr MaLoR on Nov 30, 2009 4:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

O Line

of BMore got worked over in 3rd quarter but did alright late in the game with the chips on the table. They definitely did a good job in the interior. Woodley had a nice day against Oher and Deebo broke free a few times, but Ravens offensive line did fairly well I thought despite the high sack total. Most all of them came in a flurry early in the 2nd half.

Freel free to email me anytime at behindthesteelcurtain@gmail.com with questions, suggestions, complaints, etc, or to just say what's up. -Michael Bean (Blitz)

by Blitzburgh on Nov 30, 2009 4:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed. There were several times where I said “Oh, Ben would have tried to dodge those two guys, made a TD 50% of the time, and took a sack taking us out of FG range the other half”.

An addendum to Mr Malor’s comments about Mendenhall would also be that he stoned Lewis in Blitz protection a lot.

You sure Ike isn’t reacquainting himself with his fingers, he certainly doesn’t use them for catching. - Brian (DaBolts) on "Face Me Ike"

by steelguy99 on Nov 30, 2009 9:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Even with the loss…that was one hell of a game. I know how you guys must have felt after last year.

You sure Ike isn’t reacquainting himself with his fingers, he certainly doesn’t use them for catching. - Brian (DaBolts) on "Face Me Ike"

by steelguy99 on Nov 30, 2009 9:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Na

Getting beat the way we did 3 times last year killed me. Only time I ever felt that feeling after seeing Troy pick off Joe in the AFCCG was at my grandfather’s funeral. I lost a part of me last year after that game. You have no idea what it’s like living in your shadow.

You have to hate losing more than you love winning.

by Mr MaLoR on Nov 30, 2009 10:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I meant after the first loss. I’m sure the steelers don’t intend to give me the threepeat.

You sure Ike isn’t reacquainting himself with his fingers, he certainly doesn’t use them for catching. - Brian (DaBolts) on "Face Me Ike"

by steelguy99 on Nov 30, 2009 10:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Got ya

It was nearly the same exact type of game. Except Bleach Boy Reed wasn’t kicking the game winner.

You have to hate losing more than you love winning.

by Mr MaLoR on Nov 30, 2009 10:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

OBSERVATION

IT SEEMS THAT THE ORGANIZATION IN THE BURGH IS STARTING TO GET SALTY. ANYONE THAT SAYS THEY DIDN’T SEE THIS COMING (BARING INJURIES) IS JUST NOT BEING TRUTHFUL. THE CLUBHOUSE IS DIRTY. SMALL THINGS A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO ARE NOT SO SMALL. CHECK THE MAN IN THE MIRROR STEELERS AND LETS GET THROUGH THIS. LOOK FOR EIGHTY SIX. REMEMBER THAT!

by steel-ten on Nov 30, 2009 5:16 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Caps Lock

Find it, hit it.

"Chris! That's a terrible word! Pussywillows..."
-Lois Griffin

by SteelFever on Dec 1, 2009 12:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He did

"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill

by PixburghArn on Dec 1, 2009 1:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hit it like the fist of an angry god

"Chris! That's a terrible word! Pussywillows..."
-Lois Griffin

by SteelFever on Dec 2, 2009 12:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Baltimore has the tie-breaker over the Steelers

The third tie-breaker for teams in a division tie is common games not conference record. Baltimore will have this tie-breaker.

by Sick Puppy on Nov 30, 2009 8:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

wrong my friend

That’s the third tiebreaker for breaking a tie within the division

To break a tie for Wild Card berths, it’s conference record that’s the third tiebreaker, followed by common opponents as the fourth.

Check it out if you’d like.

Freel free to email me anytime at behindthesteelcurtain@gmail.com with questions, suggestions, complaints, etc, or to just say what's up. -Michael Bean (Blitz)

by Blitzburgh on Nov 30, 2009 8:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I’m getting confused, so went into it below.

You sure Ike isn’t reacquainting himself with his fingers, he certainly doesn’t use them for catching. - Brian (DaBolts) on "Face Me Ike"

by steelguy99 on Nov 30, 2009 9:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Always have to apply the division tie-breaker first

Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)
1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step

by Sick Puppy on Nov 30, 2009 11:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Correction on Potential tie-breakers

The tie-breaker when there are three teams involved in a wildcard race with the same record does not necessarily involve head-to-head. It starts getting very tricky.

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures – and scroll down to “three or more clubs” for “wild-card team”

Let me lay out the scenario where the ravens, broncos, and steelers are 10-6 with the ravens and steelers splitting the series. In that case, rule 2 does NOT get enforced because we did not sweep the ravens, and we move on to rule 3. At that point, if the ravens and broncos have a better AFC record than the steelers, they get the wildcard regardless of our win over the broncos.

Likewise, if the jets end up tied with us and the chargers/broncos in a three-way race for the wildcard it is going to come down to conference record since we won’t play the jets (hint: root for miami since we play them).

Amusingly, if the ravens did sweep us and look like they will win the other 4, we could see a scenario where we rooted for the ravens to get to 11 wins so that we can stay in a two-way race with the broncos/chargers and apply our head-to-head tie-breaker.

And 3 AFC north teams in the wildcard would be pretty awesome…

You sure Ike isn’t reacquainting himself with his fingers, he certainly doesn’t use them for catching. - Brian (DaBolts) on "Face Me Ike"

by steelguy99 on Nov 30, 2009 9:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Bengals, Ravens, Steelers

Be incredible. There would be nothing better than wooping the Bengals in their stadium then coming back to B-More to woop the Steelers in M&T.

If it weren’t for those god damn Brown stains, this would be the best division in football by far. But those clowns and also the terrible record of the Bengals over the last………..15 years has killed our image.

You have to hate losing more than you love winning.

by Mr MaLoR on Nov 30, 2009 10:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I love this song.....

To dream the impossible dream. To fight the unbeatable foe. This is my quest – to follow that star no matter how hopeless .. no matter how far. To be willing to run into hell for a heavenly cause. I think I just threw up a little in my mouth.

" My enemy said "Love your enemy". I obeyed and loved myself." Gibran

by JUNGLEJOHN on Dec 1, 2009 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm just messin with you Malor

" My enemy said "Love your enemy". I obeyed and loved myself." Gibran

by JUNGLEJOHN on Dec 1, 2009 9:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

With each tie-breaker, you find 1 winner; then you start over with the remaining teams. It wouldn’t matter if Baltimore has 10 or 11 wins in your scenario.

Root for Miami & Tennessee (Head to Head)
Root against Jacksonville (conf), Baltimore(common), Jets(conf), Houston (conf)

Actually, ties with the Jets or Houston could go down to the Strength of Victory tie-breaker. Currently Pittsburgh has the 4th best in the NFL.

by Sick Puppy on Nov 30, 2009 12:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This is for a tie-break @ 10-6.
@ 11-5 only Jacksonville matters
@ 9-7 it gets more complicated

by Sick Puppy on Nov 30, 2009 12:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Forget about rooting for MIami @ 10-6 – the only way they can get to 10-6 is by beating Pittsburgh. Bad idea to root for Miami @ 10-6.

by Sick Puppy on Nov 30, 2009 12:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Indeed, but at least we can beat miami. We can’t do anything to the jets.

You sure Ike isn’t reacquainting himself with his fingers, he certainly doesn’t use them for catching. - Brian (DaBolts) on "Face Me Ike"

by steelguy99 on Nov 30, 2009 1:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ah, indeed you are right.

Ravens, Steelers, Broncos and the Ravens take wildcard 1 using rule 1.
Broncos, Steelers and the Steelers take wildcard using rule 2.

You sure Ike isn’t reacquainting himself with his fingers, he certainly doesn’t use them for catching. - Brian (DaBolts) on "Face Me Ike"

by steelguy99 on Nov 30, 2009 1:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

3 AFCN teams in the wildcard would be awsome considering it is not possible

" My enemy said "Love your enemy". I obeyed and loved myself." Gibran

by JUNGLEJOHN on Dec 1, 2009 3:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

True

"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill

by PixburghArn on Dec 1, 2009 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I am sure he meant 3 AFCN teams in the playoffs. That is entirely possible.

" My enemy said "Love your enemy". I obeyed and loved myself." Gibran

by JUNGLEJOHN on Dec 1, 2009 9:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Divisional Tie-Breakers

Looking at Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, & Baltimore – if they all finished tied
(for wild-cards they break a divisional tie first before breaking a wild card tie—>only 1 team from each division moves forward to a wild-card tie-break)

Cincinnati will always be first because of Head-to-Head Sweeps over both teams.

This leaves Pittsburgh & Baltimore:
If Baltimore wins in Pittsburgh, Baltimore will be slotted second because of a Head-to-Head Sweep —> Baltimore

If Baltimore loses in Pittsburgh, the next divisional tie-break is common game records. Within each division there are 14 common games(CG) and 2 non-common games. This year the non-common games are the AFC East & AFC South.

Pittsburgh beat Tenn & plays Miami in Week 17. (1-0) @10-6 (CG=either 9-5 or 8-6)
Baltimore lost to New England & lost to Indy ….. (0-2) @10-6 (CG=10-4)

Baltimore will always win this tie-breaker.

by Sick Puppy on Nov 30, 2009 12:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The last scenario assumes that Pittsburgh beats Cleveland to finish @ 3-3 in the division. Baltimore would also finish @ 3-3 in the division with a loss to Pittsburgh.

by Sick Puppy on Nov 30, 2009 12:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

what about the Minnesota loss for the Raven's and W for the Steelers?

does that factor in?

by WARDANE33 on Nov 30, 2009 2:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That’s the #4 rule in common opponents.

If the steelers and ravens are both 10-6 and split the series, then…
Both will be 3-3 (assuming the browns go down), so next…
No head to head sweep, so next…
Who has the best conference record? If tied, then…

Compare records of us vs NFC north and AFC west. The vikings game will count, but so will the chiefs, and the rest of them that come up.

You sure Ike isn’t reacquainting himself with his fingers, he certainly doesn’t use them for catching. - Brian (DaBolts) on "Face Me Ike"

by steelguy99 on Nov 30, 2009 3:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

it's a shame we're even talking about this.......

by WARDANE33 on Nov 30, 2009 3:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We could be talking about the number 3 draft pick :)

You sure Ike isn’t reacquainting himself with his fingers, he certainly doesn’t use them for catching. - Brian (DaBolts) on "Face Me Ike"

by steelguy99 on Nov 30, 2009 3:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

once again, point taken

it is just dissapointing to know we have a pretty solid group of guys back from a really good team and we keep finding ways to lose games we outplay the opposition in.

by WARDANE33 on Nov 30, 2009 4:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Any chance 9 wins sneaks in to the playoffs? Could happen.

Pretty funny that before this sunday I was debating with Blitz about 11 wins…

You sure Ike isn’t reacquainting himself with his fingers, he certainly doesn’t use them for catching. - Brian (DaBolts) on "Face Me Ike"

by steelguy99 on Nov 30, 2009 1:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

9 wins could sneak into the playoffs but we would need a lot of other games go our way.

11 wins is still possible – every loss has been <7 points and 4th quarter points given up. It seems like when the defense gives up points, the offense goes flat as well. Last year, we were coming from behind to win the close ones – too ?bad? we always have the lead late in the game.

by Sick Puppy on Nov 30, 2009 5:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good discussion men

congrats to the Ravens for a hard fought win

by WARDANE33 on Nov 30, 2009 2:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Pleasant, yet disconcerting

It’s odd to be two games up on perennial powerhouses with an undefeated divisional record and five games left. Believe me, I’m not taking it for granted…this team is the best team we’ve had in my fifteen years as a Bengals fan.

As for Pittsburgh, I’m sure that they will find a way to get into the playoffs. The Steelers always find a way to make something out of nothing.

by BengalNationWichita on Nov 30, 2009 7:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

you better hope..

We dont make the playoff! If we play you again, we will win! Just to shut Bengal fans traps! Do you REALLY want to play us in the playoffs?

by nycsteelerfan on Dec 1, 2009 4:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I like our chances

Until I actually see it with my own eyes, I’m not going to believe that the Steelers will lose any of their remaining 5 games. This is a team that absolutely flourishes once they’ve dug themselves a huge hole. Big Ben loves nothing better than playing a comeback role. Let’s put it this way: I’d hate to be any of the teams coming into Heinz Field in December. I’m betting we’ll see a much more focused Steelers team from now on.

GO STEELERS!!

by Billy52 on Nov 30, 2009 11:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It was a hell heavy weight fight vs Balt+, but w/o (as everybody had said b4) Troy, BB and also

Aaron Smith, w/Woodley not in top shape, w/Dixon having only working one entire training day against a team that put t Colts, on t ropes, and We still give them a heck of a scare, so after all I still feel pretty good w/this performance from Our team.

OK, DD didn´t play almost no bootlegs, and that could help us allot, and also I like that DD had shown what lots of people here had said before “We are not taking advantage of DD skills as a runner”, perhaps KC had shown us what play do We need for DD, yes that double option pitch, with Rashard as that 2º option. Or even a single option or a reversible for Mr. DD, IMO.

O sales tickets,...and let D rest a little, and D Win Championships.

by YeOldeMexFan on Dec 2, 2009 4:13 AM EST reply actions 0 recs