HSS Quarterly Draft Report #2: Late edition

by Tim Mullhaupt (HSS) on Nov 4, 2009 9:00 PM EST

So I'm gonna follow up on my 1st draft report, and switch the format up a bit. Please excuse my lateness, but it's been a busy few weeks.

Don't forget to look back and see how things have changed over the past 5 weeks in what I'm about to tell you. Please note that some of these profiles were done before week 9 of the college football season, and some after so there will be some variations in some stats that I will note for each player. Please note that all stat boxes are from espn.com

HSS Top 5 2010 Draft Priorities:

5. Free Safety Depth:

Watching Tyrone Carter fill in for an injured safety is a roller coaster ride. Sometimes the guy can play really well, and then there are other times when his age really shows. In addition to that, Ryan Clark's contract expires at the end of this season, but he should be the #1 priority to be resigned, and I'm confident he will get the $$$ he so rightfully deserves. Still, youth and depth is a need, and this is a decent class for free safeties.

Best Fits:

Morgan Burnett, JR, S, Georgia Tech:

Images_medium Ht: 6'1" Wt: 210 DOB: January 13, 1989

via t1.gstatic.com

Defense Stats via espn.com
YEAR	TEAM	TACK	SOLO	AST	PD	SACK	FF	REC	INT	YDS	TD
2007	GT	57	37	20	0	1	0	0	3	0	0
2008	GT	93	62	31	0	0	1	0	7	95	1
2009*	GT	39	25	14	0	0	0	0	4	40	0

*Through 8 games

I like Burnett a lot. The guy's a ball hawk who shows promise in run support, but is inconsistent in the latter. Burnett has the tools and size to be a playmaker, and could fit the Steelers well as a future FS replacement. A great plus is that he can also move over and play SS if needed. Bringing him in could give us a young talent as a back up in case of injuries to Polamalu or Clark (god forbid). As of right now he projects to be a late first early second round pick, and based off of what Burnett has accomplished, I don't see too many fans having any problem.

NFL Comparison: Michael Griffin, S, Tennessee Titans

Reshad Jones, JR, FS, Georgia:

Images_medium Ht: 6'2" Wt: 212 lbs DOB: February 25, 1986

via t1.gstatic.com

Defense Stats
YEAR	TEAM	TACK	SOLO	AST	PD	SACK	FF	REC	INT	YDS	TD
2007	UGA	57	40	17	0	0	0	0	2	53	0
2008	UGA	76	45	31	0	0	0	0	5	32	0
2009*	UGA	43	26	17	0	0	1	0	1	9	0

*Through 8 games

A big-hitting, smashmouth, occasionally "too rough" safety; sound familiar? Reshad Jones reminds me a lot of Ryan Clark, and even former Patriot and Charger Rodney Harrison. The guy consistently deals out punishment to receivers foolish enough to get in his path, a sure tackler in open space, and a disruptive force in the running game. What Jones lacks in the interception category, which really isn't that lacking, he makes up for in the blue-collar column. If he does declare expect him to be a late first, early second round pick.

NFL Comparison: Ryan Clark, FS, Pittsburgh Steelers

Myron Lewis, SR, FS/CB, Vanderbilt:

Images_medium Ht: 6'2" Wt: 205 lbs DOB: November 24, 1987

via t3.gstatic.com

Defense Stats
YEAR	TEAM	TACK	SOLO	AST	PD	SACK	FF	REC	INT	YDS	TD
2006	VAN	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2007	VAN	48	33	15	0	0	2	0	1	24	0
2008	VAN	76	51	25	0	5	1	0	5	-3	0
2009*	VAN	36	22	14	0	0	0	0	3	50	0

*Through 9 games

Lewis is a ballhawk, plain and simple, but he does flash some ability to tackle as well. The stats above show he can be an effective blitzer when called upon to do so, and what they don't show is Lewis' 7 tackles for loss in 2008, a clear indication that he can make his presence known in the backfield. The biggest question with Lewis is that he's a tweener between CB and FS, and at this point, there's no clear answer as to what he'll play in the NFL. He has the size to play safety, but teams will want to see more of his ability to stop the run before they make a final judgement. Either way, he could lend a big hand at depth in the secondary, and could eventually develop into a starter. Expect his draft stock to be somewhere in the 2nd round.

NFL Comparison: Jarius Byrd, DB, Buffalo Bills

4. Strong Side Inside Linebacker/James Farrior's Future Replacement:

Not an immediate need, as Farrior has been playing exceptionally well of late. Fox provides a solid backup but there is need for youth and additional depth in case injuries get well out of hand. As they always do, the front office wizards will find some talented stud in one of the rounds.

Best fits:

Brandon Spikes, SR, ILB/MLB, Florida:

Images_medium Ht: 6'3" Wt: 258 lbs DOB: September 3, 1987

via t1.gstatic.com

Defense Stats
YEAR	TEAM	TACK	SOLO	AST	PD	SACK	FF	REC	INT	YDS	TD
2006	FLA	15	9	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2007	FLA	131	81	50	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
2008	FLA	87	48	39	0	2	0	0	4	93	2
2009**	FLA	32	14	18	0	3	0	0	0	0	0

**Through 7 games, has only played in 5 due to injury.

What more can I say about Spikes. The guy's a locker room leader, a shut down defender, and a perfect mold of a Steeler's Linebacker. Prototype size, an aggressive, blue-collar attitude, and an explosive play-making ability, headline Spikes' best attributes. If drafted, Spikes would be worked into the LB rotation slowly as Timmons and Woodley were but would ultimately take over for Farrior in the long term. Bottom line, I see him as a future playmaker wherever he ends up going.

>Update 11/2/09< So it looks like Spikes lost his temper this past week end and tried to "gauge out" one of Georgia's player's eyes. After speaking with his coach he claimed responsibility and will miss the first half oh his next game. This doesn't help his chances of ending up in Pittsburgh, as the Rooneys and co generally frown on that kind of behavior.

NFL Comparison: Poor-man's version of Ray Lewis, MLB, Baltimore Ravens

Rolando McClain, JR, ILB, Alabama:

Images_medium Ht: 6'4" Wt: 258 DOB: July 14, 1988

via t1.gstatic.com

Defense Stats
YEAR	TEAM	TACK	SOLO	AST	PD	SACK	FF	REC	INT	YDS	TD
2007	ALA	74	36	38	0	1	0	0	2	40	0
2008	ALA	91	45	46	0	3	0	0	1	12	0
2009*	ALA	58	34	24	0	2	1	0	2	21	0

*Through 8 games

A big, hulking, linebacker who is probably even more athletic than Brandon Spikes, and plays the 3-4 defense in Bama, giving him a rare bonus over most rookies. Like Spikes, he'd be the eventual replacement for Farrior, and like Spikes, McClain brings a smashmouth, in-your-face approach to the game. There are minor questions to McClain's character, as he was involved in an on-campus fight last year at an Alabama fraternity house. It is said that some frat allegedly ran his mouth in the racial category and McClain than proceeded to punch the man in the face. What occurred afterward is a little sketchy, but the bottom line remains that there were no charges filed, and nothing has come of it to this point. Could be a good deal in the late first if he declares, but he'll likely be snapped up in the top 20 picks.

NFL Comparison: DeMeco Ryans, MLB, Houston Texans.

Joe Pawelek, SR, MLB, Baylor:

Images_medium Ht: 6'2" Wt: 240 lbs DOB: December 8, 1986

via t1.gstatic.com

Defense Stats
YEAR	TEAM	TACK	SOLO	AST	PD	SACK	FF	REC	INT	YDS	TD
2006	BAY	80	38	42	0	2	0	0	1	0	0
2006	TTU	5	0	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2007	BAY	101	41	60	0	2	4	0	1	17	0
2008	BAY	128	55	73	0	0	1	0	6	56	0
2009*	BAY	75	30	45	0	2	0	0	1	0	0

*Through 8 games

Joe Pawelek seems like the type of guy Dick LeBeau would love to have on the defense. What I find especially impressive is Pawelek's knack for picking passes off. Literally, Pawelek has more picks than some elite DB's. Fluke or not, looking beyond his pass coverage, it becomes apparent that Pawelek just gets to the ball carrier again and again, and again. His hard nose for the game and his natural instincts could be a deal in the second or third round, but don't be surprised if he goes higher if he turns in a big combine and pro day.

NFL Comparison: Larry Foote, LB, Detroit Lions

3. Speedy Running Back/Any Running Back:

So call me pessimistic but I'm not sold on Rashard Mendenhall yet. Guy's had some great plays and moments, but he's also pulled some brutal "D'OH" plays. Case and point this past week against the Vikings, where he seemed to think the 5 yard line was the goal line. Factor in a sometimes shaky, Mendenhall, and the likely departure of veteran, former-shell-of-himself Willie Parker, leads me to believe another RB could be in the mix in 2010. None of this means that I or the Steelers would be giving up on Mendenhall, but pairing him with another young running back and MeMo could do wonders for our ground game.

Best fits:

Jahvid Best, JR, RB, Cal:

Images_medium Ht: 5'10" Wt: 195 lbs DOB: January 30, 1989

via t0.gstatic.com

Rushing Stats
YEAR	TEAM	ATT	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD	FD	FUM	LOST
2007	CAL	29	221	7.6	64	2	0	0	0
2008	CAL	194	1580	8.1	86	15	0	0	0
2009*	CAL	114	775	6.8	93	11	0	0	0

*Through 7 games

Looking at Best's numbers, it seems that Casey Hampton appearing as a model in a magazine would have a better chance at happening...oh wait. Even with Best's inhuman numbers, there are a few concerns to his game. First and foremost, can he be an every-down back in the NFL? Looking at his 195 lb frame the obvious answer is no, and for Best, this is what will drop him out of the top 15 picks next year. His elite agility, home run hitting speed, and general play-making ability will easily keep him in the first round if he chooses to declare for the 2010 draft. A combination of Best and Mendenhall complete with a Roethlisberger/Ward/Holmes/Wallace/ Miller, 5-headed monster, and we may be a top 5 offense throughout the entire year.

NFL Comparison: Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans

Charles Scott, SR, RB, LSU:

Images_medium Ht: 6'1" Wt: 234 lbs DOB: August 8, 1988

via t1.gstatic.com

Rushing Stats via espn.com
YEAR	TEAM	ATT	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD	FD	FUM	LOST
2006	LSU	46	277	6.0	38	5	0	0	0
2007	LSU	45	324	7.2	55	5	0	0	0
2008	LSU	217	1174	5.4	56	18	0	0	0
2009*	LSU	85	347	4.1	33	2	0	0	0

*Through 7 games

Charles Scott may be the most fundamentally sound running back in the upcoming class, as he does the little things, or as Coach Tomlin would put it "the details", right. He holds the ball well, he gets low in traffic and runs with great power and strength. The few weaknesses in his game are his probable 4.6 40 time, and injury history. Scott could be a steal in the 3rd or middle rounds, but I can see him as high as a 2nd rounder if he picks up his production this year.

NFL Comparison: Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons

Toby Gerhart, SR, RB, Stanford:

Images_medium Ht: 6'1" Wt: 235 DOB: March 28, 1987

via t1.gstatic.com

Rushing Stats
YEAR	TEAM	ATT	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD	FD	FUM	LOST
2006	STAN	106	375	3.5	38	0	0	0	0
2007	STAN	12	140	11.7	48	1	0	0	0
2008	STAN	210	1136	5.4	46	15	0	0	0
2009*	STAN	195	994	5.1	60	13	0	0	0

*Through 8 games

What? A white running back?? Yup, and he's no slouch either. Gerhart is a blue collar bulldozer, who is purely a power back, and makes a living off of running over people. Last year Gerhart ran for at least 100 yards in 8 of the 12 games last year highlighted by his 101 yards and a TD performance against the USC Trojans vaunted defense. This years things are shaping up to be even better, as he's already closing in on his last year's rushing yards and TD total with plenty of football left to play. Like Charles Scott, Gerhart is a guy who could be a good deal in the second round and a steal in the third.

NFL Comparison: Brandon Jacobs, RB, New York Giants

2. Nosetackle/Defensive Line Youth:

Starting off this year,Terrence Cody was my favorite prospect for the 2010 draft, and he's still high on my list. The guy is a mountain in the middle of any line, and can blow up both single and double teams to demolish a running game, and even flashes some decent pass rushing moves. However there are some high risks to his game; morbid obesity, an inconsistent motor, and durability concerns make him a very risky product to invest in. Still, taking this into consideration, he's not unlike our own stud nose tackle Casey Hampton who shares some, not all of the same problems. There is another player who is quickly shooting up my own personal list as well as multiple NFL teams' draft boards as well.

Best fits:

Cameron Heyward, JR, DL, Ohio State:

Images_medium Ht: 6'6" Wt: 290 lbs DOB: May 6, 1989

via t3.gstatic.com

Defense Stats via espn.com
YEAR	TEAM	TACK	SOLO	AST	PD	SACK	FF	REC	INT	YDS	TD
2007	OSU	32	20	12	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
2008	OSU	36	13	23	0	3	0	0	0	0	0
2009	OSU	24	11	13	0	3	0	0	0	0	0

* 7 games played

The man stands at 6'6", weighing in at 290 pounds, and unlike Cody, there are no questions as to how good of a motor Heyward has. He's a big man and uses his size to overwhelm and push offensive linemen all over the field. In 7 games this year, Heyward has already racked up 3 sacks, matching his last year's total. To me, Heyward's a very similar player to Aaron Smith, who, as we know so well, is good at everything a 3-4 DE is asked to do. Previously, Heyward's draft stock for 2010 looked like a late 2nd round, early 3rd round pick. If his level of play continues, and he remains healthy, he could leave the Buckeyes in his junior year and be a late first early second round pick that would make a lot of sense for the Steelers to pursue. Keep your fingers crossed that we get him for a bargain in the second or third round.

NFL Comparison: Aaron Smith, Pittsburgh Steelers

Terrence Cody, SR, NT, Alabama:

S154009267442_2152_medium Ht: 6'5" Wt: 354 lbs DOB: June 28, 1987-via facebook so don't take that w/o a grain of salt.

via profile.ak.fbcdn.net

Defense Stats
YEAR	TEAM	TACK	SOLO	AST	PD	SACK	FF	REC	INT	YDS	TD
2008	ALA	23	7	16	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
2009*	ALA	17	10	7	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

*Through 8 games

Ahhh, the interesting case of Terrence "Mount" Cody. An incredibly high-risk, high-reward style prospect, there are equally numerous negatives to the positives of the Big man's game. Cody is a meatball, simply put, but his presence on the Bama D-Line has been very similar to that of Casey Hampton's on our own. Alabama plays the 3-4 defense, which more often than not requires double, if not triple teaming of Cody, who can excel at holding his own against such strategies, when at times, beating them. He uses his massive frame well, so much so that it is said that he can dunk on an NBA regulation basketball hoop. But as everyone knows basketball is basketball, and football is football. For all the power and strength Cody possesses, he lack's stamina, and in some areas, general consistency. At this point in his career Cody is strictly a 2-down player, meaning that in passing situations or general 3rd downs, Cody isn't on the field. Again this is not unlike our own Nose tackle, but the major difference being, Hampton is 32 and Cody is 22. Something wrong with this picture? It's hard to ask a man over 350 pounds to give his all 60 minutes a game, but that's what Cody will have to do to succeed at the NF:L level.

NFL Comparison: Shaun Rogers, DT, Cleveland Browns

Vince Oghobaase, SR, DL, Duke:

Images_medium Ht: 6'5" Wt: 305 lbs DOB: January 24, 1987

via t0.gstatic.com

Defense Stats
YEAR	TEAM	TACK	SOLO	AST	PD	SACK	FF	REC	INT	YDS	TD
2006	DUKE	26	9	17	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
2007	DUKE	49	20	29	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
2008	DUKE	51	20	31	0	6	0	0	0		0
2009**	DUKE	23	11	12	0	1	0	0	0	0	0

**Through 8 games. Sat out 4 due to Injury

A big, strong, defensive lineman, who has similar tools to reigning first round pick, Ziggy Hood. Projecting as a 3-4 defensive end, or a 4-3 defensive tackle, Oghobaase flashes potential as an impact defender for both schemes. His biggest test will be how well he can control his height, or in other words, how he can play with leverage. If Oghobaase can back up his good numbers with equally solid combine numbers, he could be a high second round pick. If he underwhelms he could slip into the late second or even third round, where he could be a bargain.

NFL Comparison: Ziggy Hood, DL, Pittsburgh Steelers

1. Offensive Line:

So what could you name as the surprise of the Steeler's 2009 season thus far? The Steelers being a passing team, the fast start of rookie Mike Wallace, or how bout the offensive line playing some pretty damn solid football. Don't get me wrong this unit is nowhere near the elite, O-lines in the NFL, but they are light years better than they were a season ago. Maybe it's the new offensive scheme, maybe it's the new offensive weapons, and maybe it''s just the whole "experience leads to better play" theory coming to fruition, but they are looking more and more like they are on the same page. That being said, it'd be foolish to say this line doesn't need some kind of anchor, which they're lacking at this point. Bear with me on some of the comparisons as it's a little harder to come up with a similar player when there's no real stats to back it up.

Ciron Black, SR, OT, LSU:

Images_medium Ht: 6'5" Wt: 325 lbs DOB: October 29th, 1986

via t2.gstatic.com

At the NFL level, Black will most definitely play either RT or RG, both of which are potential needs for the team next year. Both of the current starters' (Willie Colon and Trai Essex) contracts are up at the end of this season, and with such a impending slew of new contracts in this offseason, there may not be enough money left in the bank for both players. Black's biggest asset to any team is his immense strength and powerhouse run blocking. In addition to being an anchor for LSU's offensive line, he has shown leadership both on and off the field, which is a major plus for Kevin Colbert and co. when they're searching for young star.

NFL Comparison: I'm gonna take Walter Football's word for it and say Vernon Carey, OT, Miami Dolphins

Charles Brown, SR, OT, USC:

Images_medium Ht: 6'6" Wt: 285 lbs DOB: April 10, 1987

via t0.gstatic.com

Brown is probably the best man along the USC offensive line, and really has a knack for keeping his QB upright. With his tall yet, slimmer frame, Brown can move quickly and can keep up with even the fastest edge rushers. He does lack body mass and will have to add on to a 285 frame if he wants to hold up in the NFL. It may be because of this lack of extra weight that he lacks a killer edge in the ground game, but it certainly isn't due to a lack of effort. With coaching, Brown could very well be one of the most complete Left Tackles in the game. Don't expect to see him slip out of the first round.

NFL Comparison: Michael Oher, OT, Baltimore Ravens

Mike Iupati, SR, OG, Idaho:

Images_medium Ht: 6'6" Wt: 330 DOB: May 12, 1987

via t0.gstatic.com

Iupati, a native of American Somoa, is quickly becoming one of the most well-rounded guards in the upcoming draft. He possesses prototype size and is more than effective on the move. There aren't too many holes to Iupati's game, as he's just as solid in the running game as he is in pass protection. A great senior bowl, combine, and pro day could easily propel the big man into the first round. If not, he could be a steal in rounds 2 or 3, and is definitely a guy to keep an eye on during draft day.

NFL Comparison: Shawn Andrews, OG, Philadelphia Eagles

Sergio Render, SR, OG, Virginia Tech:

Images_medium Ht: 6'3" Wt: 315 DOB: September 13, 1986

via t3.gstatic.com

Render is a road-grating run blocker who can use his ideal size to his advantage and push guys around on the field. Another guy who, if impressive enough, could make a run at the right guard spot if a guy like Essex were to leave. His protection in the passing game is not concrete but isn't trash either. At this point he projects as a late 2nd to 3rd round pick.

NFL Comparison: Chris Kemoeatu, OG, Pittsburgh Steelers

Kristofer O'Dowd, JR, C, USC:

Images_medium Ht: 6'5" Wt: 300 lbs DOB: May 14, 1988

via t2.gstatic.com

Call it what you want, but I just don't get that "Alex Mack" vibe from O'Dowd. Sure he's definitely a solid prospect, he has the height and weight NFL centers typically have, and there aren't too many glaring weaknesses in his game, but that being said, there really isn't anything that shouts "overly dominant" to me. That being said, he plays at a high level of competition in the PAC-10 and holds his own. Even if he isn't the next Matt Birk, he could pan out and have a very solid career in the NFL. Expect to see him in the late first, or second round if he declares for April's draft.

NFL Comparison: Shaun O'Hara, C, New York Giants

Don't Rule out:

Eric Norwood, OLB, SR, South Carolina-Great Pass rusher out of SC, character guy who could add youth and much needed depth at the OLB spot and could eventually replace Harrison when the sad day comes when Deebo just doesn't have it any more.

Jerry Hughes, OLB/DE, SR, TCU-Almost the exact same rational as Norwood. Fantastic pass rusher who adds youth/depth/future replacement to the defense.

Bryan Bulaga, OT, JR, Iowa-It was my previous belief that if Bulaga were to declare for this year's draft, there would be no way in hell that the big man would fall out of the top 15 picks of the draft. However, after recently recovering from major thyroid gland issues, Bulaga's game has been up and down, and a little underwhelming considering the expectations set out for him at the beginning of this year. Keep in mind that he is a junior and that unless he gets a high first round grade he probably won't declare, but if he were and he were to fall to the Steelers, wherever we may land in the draft, there'd be plenty of cause to crap your pants, as he is imho, the best offensive lineman in this draft.

A Kicker-Spikey is running out of 2nd chances. He better perform and keep out of trouble for the rest of the year if he wants any of an already declining chance of being back in 'Da Burgh in 2010.

Don't even think about:

Carlos Dunlap, DE, JR, Florida-Almost every scouting report I've read to this point leads me to believe Dunlap will be the next Vernon Gholston. The reports consistently read that Dunlap shows a consistent lack of effort, variety of moves, and just a lazy attitude. It's a shame, but a guy with unreal size (6'6" 290 lbs) and athleticism will most likely bust out very early on in his career. His high number of sacks will assure him a spot with a team like KC, or Oakland, but don't be fooled, the guy's a bum.

Special Thanks to walterfootball for their scouting work which I have consulted in some of my profiling.

Let me know what you think.

-HSS

Poll

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Nice job, keep up the good work

87 votes

Meh, not really my cup of tea, seems like a lot of wasted effort

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Stop talking about the draft.

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Comments

Seeing how I would never really consider doing this kids of research

I really like to be able to read analysis like this.

Now, I’m a Penn State guy. So, I’m wondering, do any out of Jared Odrick (DL) or Sean Lee/Josh Hull (MLB) make sense for us? If so, where would they project to fall in the draft?

Hey, an out is an out - unless you're Mario, in which case it's probably two outs. -UtesFan89

by wg1of5 on Nov 4, 2009 9:27 PM EST reply actions

Well at leat in Ordick's case

I’ve heard a lot of praise for him being an ideal 3-4 prospect. The only thing the Steelers will do a double take on are off the field issuses like this. Not the biggest crime, but it’ll be a topic of discussion when he meets with scouts and coaches.

From what I’ve heard on Lee is that he’s solid, and he’s got good numbers to prove it. Brownie points for being a native of Pittsburgh though.

Hull I can honestly say I don’t know much about, but he seems like he’s a decent linebacker. Maybe he’ll be one of those late round gems, or UDFA finds. You would know better than I how Hull impacts a team.

BTSC Obituaries

OldManSteeler, ominously died two days before Superbowl 123 where the Ravens are set to attempt their 7th superbowl win, facing the Detroit Lions on Sunday. He was 86. His last words are believed to be "MALOR CAN SUCK IT!!!". Like friends and family, we can only guess what this could mean.

by Tim Mullhaupt (HSS) on Nov 4, 2009 10:16 PM EST up reply actions

couple things on Myron Lewis

As a Vanderbilt student and a Bills fan, I feel uniquely qualified to say this:
1. Jairus Byrd is a Bill, not a Patriot.
2. I know Jairus Byrd, I’ve watched Jairus Byrd. Myron Lewis, sir, is no Jairus Byrd.

Jonathan Stupar won the Heisman…while playing in the NFL!

by JPH on Nov 4, 2009 9:33 PM EST reply actions

My mistake I confused Patrick Chung with him

I will fix. And yea, some of the comparisons may be off, I tried to base it off similar sizes, skills. I’m no expert so I’m sorry if there a little off base.

BTSC Obituaries

by Tim Mullhaupt (HSS) on Nov 4, 2009 9:38 PM EST up reply actions

Please excuse

my poor grammar as well :p.

BTSC Obituaries

by Tim Mullhaupt (HSS) on Nov 4, 2009 9:47 PM EST up reply actions

no worries my friend.

I actually think it’s not too far off in terms of his ball skills in combination with being too slow to be a corner. I actually think his size and tackling would rate higher than Jairus, but Byrd is a ballhawk of another level.

Jonathan Stupar won the Heisman…while playing in the NFL!

by JPH on Nov 4, 2009 9:55 PM EST up reply actions

Yea he's my pick for Defensive Rookie of the Year

BTSC Obituaries

by Tim Mullhaupt (HSS) on Nov 4, 2009 10:00 PM EST up reply actions

A couple of thoughts:

1) While not impossible I’d be very surprised if the Steelers took another RB in round 1. Tomlin isn’t John Fox or Jeff Fischer here – he’s a pragmatist that will change his offensive/defensive philosophy depending on what he thinks will give him the best possible chance to win. With Ben, Hines, Tone, Wallace, Heath and an OLine becoming, dare I say, good at protecting BB that’s going to be the passing game supplimented by an efficent running attack. Of course, i tend to think the sky is the limit for Mendy, so I’m perhaps biased here.

However, I do think it’s likely that we take a change of pace sort of speedy back somewhere later in the draft (4th round or so). With Mendy as the starter and MeMo as the 3rd down/backup next year we won’t need a whole lot of production from such a pick immediately.

2) After being on the Oline in the 1st round bandwagon for the last couple of years I can honestly say I hope we dont’ draft a tackle/guard in the first – unless the value is just too good to pass up, of course. Or unless they don’t plan to resign Colon.

(Also, I never thought i’d be happy at the prospect of getting a longterm contract with Colon done. The sky is falling.)

The problem wtih the Oline thus far isn’t with the starters exactly – although there is room for improvement – but with the shoddy depth. When you’re top 2 backups are actually Undrafted Free Agents you know you need some more bodies back there. Still, my preference would be for a NT/FS/MLB or perhaps a CB if somebody falls with a very high value.

The O is, outside of Hines, pretty young. The D, however, is aging at a number of key positions.

by BluegrassSteeler on Nov 4, 2009 11:52 PM EST reply actions

I agree that we're not Fox or Fischer

But what’s so bad about that? Both of those teams have running games teams would kill for. Even Arians couldn’t screw us with a Ben, Mendenhall, Best, Ward, Holmes, Wallace, Miller offense. I do agree to your point that the defense is in need of a lot of youth though. I’ll have no problem with any top notch defensive prospect in the first round.

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by Tim Mullhaupt (HSS) on Nov 5, 2009 12:36 AM EST up reply actions

Yes they both have runnings games to kill for but..

they also have QBs that fans want to kill.

by Steel in FL on Nov 6, 2009 12:09 AM EST up reply actions

A guy I've been pimping all year is Dan Williams

DT from Tennessee. He was a force against a very good Alabama o-line. McClain will be better than Spikes in the end.

Another guy is Mike Johnson from Alabama. He’s a tall LG at 6’5".

by StoneColdSteel on Nov 5, 2009 1:42 AM EST reply actions

Yea

Dan Williams is a sleeper, Johnson I’m told is very good. And yea it’s looking like McClain will be a better player than Spikes, but the better McClain looks the higher his draft status is sky rocketing.

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by Tim Mullhaupt (HSS) on Nov 5, 2009 11:52 AM EST up reply actions

Williams at the end of the 2nd i would be very happy with

by syrsteelerfan on Nov 6, 2009 2:05 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks HSS

Ron Paul was Right.

by Steelchamps !! on Nov 5, 2009 1:57 AM EST reply actions

I'm glad other people love this stuff too!

.
Keep it up HSS!

I like sifting through the late round talent to see if anything looks like value.

At FS, I had liked Danny McCray as a late round/UDFA talent, something like our Mundy, only faster. But now he is getting absolutely no love at all. He has the measurables, but seems to have trouble making it all work. So I must have misguessed about him. I still like him as a FA. His college experience would resonate with Clark’s (both from LSU). He will probably have some time to learn and develop behind Clark. But what do I know?

I like Micah Johnson as a mid round pick, even though he is slow. He is super solid against the run. We might need that if we cannot get a pro bowl NT.

Iupati is interesting, in that he has the skills to be a good tackle as well as guard. Just the sort that Tomlin likes.

I still like A Benn as a first rounder, but he probably doesn’t offer the value that our FO loves.

Like StoneColdSteel, I also like Dan Williams. I think he could do the job, but he will be a definite downgrade from Hampton.

by Concomitandt on Nov 5, 2009 6:53 AM EST reply actions

Thanks for the research HSS...

And from one Yankees fan to another, congrats on #27 last night, it was a great series, the Phils are a heck of a team.

Steelers win #6, Yanks win #27, I’m living the good life as a sporst fan right now. Can’t wait for championships #7 and #28. Soon enough, but for now, it’s all good.

'I’ve learned to become a flat-liner. There’s a lot out there that’ll make your heart jump if you allow it."
-Coach Tomlin

by NYSteelersFan4 on Nov 5, 2009 12:03 PM EST reply actions

Oh that was great

Yea first time in my life that they’ve won in the same year. It may have happened once in the 70’s but boy oh boy is it great to be a sports fan right about now!

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by Tim Mullhaupt (HSS) on Nov 5, 2009 1:42 PM EST up reply actions

Safties Jones & Lewis....

…are good prospects as fourth or fifth round picks, the second rd is way too much of a reach for these guys.

No way in hell does Terrence Cody drop below 16 in the draft. We have no shot without trading an obscene number of picks. Dan Williams, Cam Thomas maybe DeMarcus Granger (if healthy) are more likely.

by Marvin, The Paranoid Android on Nov 5, 2009 12:15 PM EST reply actions

...without trading an obscene number of picks.

Which means we won’t. Next year is going to be a deep draft, and more picks is better. Wouldn’t be surprised if we traded down. (and I’m hating that the Patsies have so many picks next year)

by gostevego on Nov 5, 2009 8:50 PM EST up reply actions

Trading down...

…and picking up extra picks would be good. We don’t have an overwhelming need to draft someone and compel them to contribute immediately. We do have the luxury of allowing less refined talent to develop, use(abuse) it.

by Marvin, The Paranoid Android on Nov 5, 2009 9:56 PM EST up reply actions

Good stuff

I’m always in the mood for draft talk!! Great read HSS, looking forward to the next one

by Jett on Nov 5, 2009 2:06 PM EST reply actions

Nice job HSS

One thing that may have been overlooked is cornerback. Teams are consistently attacking Gay every week and I don’t think he is the answer. I don’t think Burnett will ever be more than a nickle corner and I’m not sure about the progress of Keenan Lewis.

by Dr Del on Nov 5, 2009 6:48 PM EST reply actions

More.....

Thanks HSS for your update & analyses.
I follow 3 sources for the draft. Here is some info I have picked up from them:

SOURCE #1. Re the running backs, they have Jahvid Best rated as the 2nd best running back (“Amazingly elusive ball carrier who creates his own yardage, making several defenders miss over the course of a single run. Fast, quick and turns in on in a single step. Dynamite receiver out of the backfield.”), and my other two sources have him going in the late first round in their mocks. Toby Gerhart is rated 9th best (“Powerful, straight ahead runner that picks up the tough yardage. Must be kept between the tackles.”) while Charles Scott is slotted at 11 (“Powerful ball carrier who picks up a lot of yardage off initial contact and can carry the load between the tackles. Runs with an aggressive style, picks up the tough yardage and gives effort as a blocker”).

They haven’t completed their rankings yet for the other positions that HSS has considered. One player they have ranked though is interesting to me, but this would be a pick that will probably never happen if the FO, like a lot of fans, thinks Summers has a future with the black & gold. They have Stanley Havili from USC as their top ranked fullback, with a ‘job description’ that is a lot like what we were hoping we were getting with Summers: “Tremendous all around fullback. Devastating blocker, terrific pass catcher and effective as a short yardage runner. Needs to stay focused but a good prospect.” They have him projected as a third round pick. What if he were to drop to round four? Think he might fit?

How many of you think Spaeth is here to stay? It appears we have a better blocker with Johnson, and it could be the FO found a late round gem here. I’m optimistic that Johnson is here to stay and that he is going to be good, but I don’t think Spaeth is improving. A guy that could be considered, who is projected 3rd round, but maybe 4th since this is looking like it will be a strong draft for tight ends in later rounds, is Garrett Graham from Wisconsin, described as “Solid pass catching tight end who also displays ability as an in-line blocker. Lacks the speed to be a downfield threat and more of a number two at the position.” With Heath and our WRs we don’t need a downfield TE, but a guy that can block and work the middle could be beneficial.

Another guy who sounds intriguing as a late round pick is TE Nate Byham from Pitt. I don’t live in Pgh and have very few chances to watch games (I’m on the other side of the world), and I’m sure many of you are familiar with him. He’s described as “Strong, powerful blocking tight end who does an effective job as a short range passer. Mid-to-late round pick in the ’10 draft yet a tight end that specializes in blocking which could keep him in the league for years.” In a preview of the South Florida vs. Pitt game they said he “is asked to be predominantly an extra offensive lineman and is definitely a mighty fine blocker in his own right; he has also proven to be a reliable target when asked.” Too much like what we have with Johnson, or worth considering?

SOURCE #2. They’ve now got us taking Kristopher O’Dowd in the first round in their mock, a revision, replacing Trent Williams, the previous pick.

They’ve got Best ranked as the #3 running back behind Dwyer & Spiller, with Scott at 4 and Gerhart at 6. I can’t see the Steelers taking a running back in the first round, but it’s possible we could find a quality runner in the second, or maybe the third. But thinking about a running back is moot now I think because there are too many unanswered questions, such as how Rashard and Willie play the rest of the year, where Summers is headed, and who will be here next year.

Interestingly, they only predict 7 middle linebackers to go in the draft, with a slew of free agents. They rank Greg Jones from Michigan State at number 3 (Spikes 1, McClain 2, Pawalek 4), but don’t think he will go in the draft. Micah Johnson from Kentucky is another ILB worth considering, the “2005 Kentucky Mr. Football” in his senior year of H.S. when he played both running back and linebacker. He chose to stay home and go to Kentucky, choosing over Notre Dame and other offers. “As a sophomore, he recorded 58 tackles, 2 interceptions, and 5 pass breakups. As a junior, he recorded 57 solo tackles, 30 assisted, 11.5 for loss, and 2.5 sacks.” He was named SEC Defensive Player of the Week for 14 tackles at Auburn. If he’s available in the second we should grab him.

They predict Berry and Burnett to go in the first, along with Earl Thomas. A player I think we should keep watching is Nate Allen from USF. “Allen is quickly establishing himself as one of if not the premiere senior safety prospect in this class. Already his team’s leading tackler, Allen is as effective in the box as he is covering space. This safety hits hard and does not often make mental mistakes. He is the field general of this defensive unit. Allen will leave South Florida as a three year starter and one of the program’s most heralded prospects.” I would think many of you have seen him in Big East games, and probably know more about him than I do.

SOURCE #3. It seems, like last year, every mock has us taking an offensive lineman, and here the pick is Trent Williams from Oklahoma. HSS has done a good job here considering OL picks, and any of those picks would help us. Top ranked guard here is Mike Johnson from Alabama, but I think there are at least four to five OGs I’d consider before him. I really like Sergio Render, whom they rank second, the OG from Virginia Tech, and think we could possibly find him available at the end of the first round.

SOURCE #4. This is a mock draft I found today that has us taking Spiller with the 24th pick. Well, we’re picking 32 again (right?), and I don’t think Spiller willfall this far, although the mock that has us taking Williams has Spiller going later. Would Colbert consider a RB in the first round?

+ Could West Virginia’s Selvish Capers be a middle to late round sleeper? I’m looking at a list of the top 50+ OTs in the country and he’s not on it. This guy moved from tight end to OT… worth considering? He’s local, so many of you may know him.

by Steelin' on Nov 5, 2009 8:41 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

Correct, picking at 32. :)

by gostevego on Nov 5, 2009 8:51 PM EST up reply actions

I agree...

…Spaeth is probably gone but with McHugh probably retuning next season(remember we signed him to an extension in the offseason) I’d be surprised if we draft a TE-only if a highly rated prospect fell to us.

…and why give the asshole Arians another high pick RB, he’s barely using the one he has now. If we had Kevin Gilbride as OC, I would say hell yea!! but with the asshole Arians you have to say it would be a waste of a pick.

by Marvin, The Paranoid Android on Nov 5, 2009 10:19 PM EST up reply actions

I don't like...

Cody, Ciron Black, Brandon Spikes. Fat, fat and sloppy, and slow and problematic, in that order.

I’m looking for a quick twitch ILB or athletic G or DL in the 1st

by syrsteelerfan on Nov 6, 2009 2:07 PM EST reply actions

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by Tim Mullhaupt (HSS) on Nov 7, 2009 7:32 PM EST up reply actions

Great stuff as always HSS

I like most picks, however i want to voice that I dont like the idea of drafting Terrance Cody, too high risk high reward with NTs of that size

Youve got Hampton and Rogers who maintained the level of play whilst having very large size, but you also have guys like Ethan Kelly, who was just sluggish and awful at the faster pro game

However, talking about the draft makes me depressed at how fast the season is going : (

Bleeding Black and Gold.....forever

by Michael Hewitt on Nov 8, 2009 5:13 AM EST reply actions

Couple Updates: Toby Gerhart looks more and more impressive

Ran 38 times for 223 yards and 3 TDs against Oregon yesterday.

Jahvid Best knocked himself out on an amazing, yet horrifying TD where he was literally flipped 6 or 7 feet up in the air and came down so hard that he knocked himself out cold. I won’t be surprised if he’s done for the year.

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by Tim Mullhaupt (HSS) on Nov 8, 2009 1:45 PM EST reply actions

You're wrong about Mendenhall

He’s a beast and is here to stay and will make you eat your words. Bonehead plays? He’s basicly a rookie for goodness sakes. Do you even remember what Bonehead Barry’s Bananna Foster did when he first got to Pittsburgh? How many Bonehead plays has BIG BEN made? Ease up on Mendy. Offensive line is not the Steelers first need. I like the majority of your work though.

by baabaablacksheep on Nov 9, 2009 11:42 AM EST reply actions

Well

Like I said, I’m not saying he’s a bust, and I’m too young to remember Barry Foster’s days (I was born in ‘93), but I’m just not putting 100% faith in him yet. As I said above, he’s had some big games and plays this year, and I hope he proves me wrong, but there are plenty of teams that benefit from a devastating running back tandem. If Willie Parker was still himself we’d have our own right now, but I just don’t think he has it anymore. That’s why if Mendenhall were to be paired w/ a dynamic back like best, or even a bruiser like Scott or Gerhart, both would benefit. Best especially, as he’s more of a change of pace back at this point in his career. Whoever they would add would be a compliment to Mendy.

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by Tim Mullhaupt (HSS) on Nov 9, 2009 4:45 PM EST up reply actions

Then put your faith in this.....

He was the Steelers NUMBER ONE PICK….look at our track record of number one picks. Trust and have faith in our scouting dept and Kevin Colbert. They know what they are doing….esp at the top half of the draft. Good RB’s can be found in later rounds……for example……….pay attention to MOJO’s back up in JAX…..Rashad Jennings…7th round. 230 lb back. Hailed from Liberty University in VA ….but spent his first two years as a PITT PANTHER. and…..I hope you watched the game last night……Mendy needs to carry that ball high and tight.

by baabaablacksheep on Nov 10, 2009 6:57 AM EST up reply actions

Good work HSS

It’s still very early but thanks for keeping track of things and doing some prognosticating. I know it’s a labor of love but it’s still a lot of work. A couple points and opinions based on games I’ve seen, not draft sites I’ve visited.
1. The Steelers will take the best available player in the first round, at any position IMO except QB, RB and WR. I expect a draft that is concentrated on defense. Safety is a very high priority but they need prospects at every level, at just about every position on defense. My favorite late-first round pick at this point is DE Cameron Heyward, possibly Spikes if he is available. I expect McClain to go fairly early. Props to you for putting Heyward so high but I don’t think there is any way he lasts till the late second round. He is a tough, tough kid and would be a great future bookend for Ziggy Hood.
2. Joe Pawelek is too slow to play for the Steelers. The theme of the defensive picks under Tomlin is speed and athleticism. Someone like Perry Riley would be a better fit. He plays OLB at LSU but has the size, speed and athleticism to play ILB in a 3-4.
3. We need a combo safety prospect desperately. Morgan Burnett has all the measurables but is almost invisible in some games. Reshad Jones is up and down. Earl Thomas is on the small side. I would prefer Darrell Stuckey, Nate Allen, Deunta Robinson, Major Wright as second rounders, or bigger but athletic strong safey types like Myron Rolle and Justin Woodall. Rolle is a very interesting prospect because he’s not playing this season. He doesn’t have great speed but he’s no slower than Clark, much bigger, a solid tackler and obviously incredibly intelligent. I think he will be a very good pro.
4. I’m not buying into the Terrence Cody hype for the Steelers. He’s huge. He could come in and play on run downs. He is not worth a first-round pick IMO. Dan Williams as a second or third rounder would be much better value and fit the Tomlin mold. Guys like Marvin Austin or Boo Robinson are more along the lines of the Jay Ratliff model of NT that I think the Steelers would prefer, but I would rate them in general as lower prospects than Heyward, Arthur Jones or Jared Odrick. This is a great draft for 3-4 DEs. I have not seen the Duke kid play.
5. The Steelers need a swing tackle prospect and at least one more elite athlete on the OL. The best IOL athlete I’ve watched this year is, by far, Maurkice Pouncey. I think he could play any position on the OL and do okay. At center he is a future Pro Bowler. Mike Johnson is a very good guard, better in my opinion than Render. John Jerry of Ole Miss is a tackle who will probably have to play guard but is a mid-rounder. I’ve not seen Iupati play. My favorite swing tackle prospects are Gabe Carimi, Jason Fox and Sam Young as second rounders. Young is projected strictly as a RT but Max Starks was also projected strictly as a RT and we’ve seen how that worked out. I’m very high on Carimi. To me he will be a better pro than the over-hyped Bulaga and Williams.
6. Jahvid Best is not going to last long in the NFL as an every-down back. He is not nearly as strong as Chris Johnson. Why would anyone draft a third-down back and KR in the first round? Charles Scott is disappointing IMO. Very slow feet, no agility. If we draft a RB it’s more likely to be a third or fourth rounder like Anthony Dixon, Ben Tate or Montarrio Hardesty, who I like quite a bit.
7. The failure of Bruce Davis means the Steelers have to draft an OLB prospect. There are many potential late-first rounders including the two you mention, Norwood and Hughes. I like both. I am down on Dunlap, who will be gone fairly early anyway, and George Selvie. One great athlete who might project to 3-4 OLB is junior DE Jason Pierre-Paul of South Florida. He is seen as strictly a 4-3 DE but he is tall, fast and just scratching the surface of his talent. Think Jevon Kearse or a taller version of Demarcus Ware. As a first-year player out of junior college with a limited football background he has been very impressive.

by steeler.lifer on Nov 9, 2009 4:43 PM EST reply actions

Thanks for the response

Yea I hate having a limited college football viewing experience, I’m not as blessed with College Football as I am with NFL, and Sunday Ticket.

I just have a couple of questions.

When you’ve seen Heyward play, what is it that stands out the most about him? I’ve heard great things about his motor, and I watched him vs USC this year, where he was fantastic, but then I’ve heard him criticized for being “soft”. I don’t get that vibe at all from him, especially looking at some of his highlights. Are people mistaking soft for him playing too upright? I mean it’s probably pretty hard for him to get his 6’6" frame low sometimes.

Same question for Williams as well. I’ve heard a lot about him and how he could be a really strong NT prospect, both figuratively and literally, but outside of that I haven’t heard much else.

Finally what centers do you see that could potentially work out? As I said above, I’m not big on O’Dowd, but I hear he’s solid, and I’ve heard about that guy on Hawaii, John Estes, but not really much more than that.

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by Tim Mullhaupt (HSS) on Nov 9, 2009 5:11 PM EST up reply actions

Heyward is very strong at the point of attack. He is tall but well proportioned with good strength throughout his frame. He is not knocked off balance by low blocks. He has very good upper body strength and gets disengaged quickly from blocks. I would say he has a very good motor, but he’s not the lean, loping type of DE you see running around people or chasing plays down from behind. He keeps everything in front of him, plays good angles and fights through blockers. He does not quit after his initial push and is pretty quick and persistent. He’s determined and just too strong for many college linemen. He’s not a physical project. He’s a filled out, well developed athlete who is already very strong and will get stronger. He does have a big enough frame to put on more weight and if that happens, he will be an incredible physical specimen, but he’s already strong enough to play. He’ll have less of an adjustment to make IMO than Ziggy Hood.

Williams is very quick for a man his size (6-3, about 325). He gets good low leverage, stays on his feet, chases plays down and gets involved in plays outside the tackle box. The one thing I think he needs to improve is his base balance and using his hands.. He gets moved around by offensive linemen on running plays, recovers and chases. That’s why he’s not a first-rounder, he doesn’t dominate enough battles. He needs to learn to use his arms and a better body lean to hold the point of attack and then close, but all the physical tools are there. He has enough athletic ability to also play 3-4 DE.

I have only really watched three centers closely, Pouncey, O’Dowd and the Penn State center. Pouncey is outstanding. He’s very tall for a center and sometimes he is too high in his initial move after the snap. I’ve seen plays get blown up because the DT gets at his legs and penetrates. But it doesn’t happen very often. He is a great athlete for his size. He physically abuses defensive linemen and gets to the second level easily. He steps quickly into pass protection and has long, strong arms that keep the pocket clean. He and his twin brother at RG work well together but he seems like a very smart player who understands when and where to help against blitzes. His lateral movement, coordination and running ability at 6-5, 320 pounds is pretty amazing, which is why I think he could play any OL position and be okay. But he’s a center and with so many teams going to the 3-4, having an agile beast at center is a pretty good guy to have. He is a better athlete than any of the centers in last year’s draft, he’s young and will get much stronger than he is right now. He is similar physically to Andre Gurode of the Cowboys but in my opinion more mobile than the Cowboys’ Pro Bowler, who was drafted early in the second round the same year the Steelers drafted Kendall Simmons late in the first round. I would expect Pouncey to go in the same range and be the top IOL of the draft.

by steeler.lifer on Nov 9, 2009 7:50 PM EST up reply actions

Tru Dat!

Cameron Heywood is fantastic! I’ve seen him 3 times this season and he’s been terrific each time. I’ve seen Jones only once and I was very impressed and feel he may be better suited and prepared for our D than Heywood.

Cody, a JC transfer I believe, has responded well to Saban who is a tough taskmaster and in the right environment he’ll be disciplined and professional. He has reportedly reduced his weight from 400 + to 350 and is still learning to play. That aside, I’d much rather select Jones or Heywood in the 1st rd.

Odrick seems the least impressive of the DT bunch you mentioned and he’s a Penn State player who all seem to plateau early in their careers.

I’m a fan of Perry Riley, he’s the most impressive LSU player I’ve seen in years. LSU players are often very talented but underdeveloped and trucking a lot of bad habits both on and off the field but Perry seems an exception. Unfortunately(who knows maybe fortunately), I have him behind McClain, Spikes and Washington(TCU).

by Marvin, The Paranoid Android on Nov 10, 2009 1:50 AM EST up reply actions

Man

The more I’m lookin’ at Williams, the more impressed I am. He looks a lot more athletic than Cody, and as you said, he’s pretty fast for a big guy. I wouldn’t be surprised if he does turn out to be an first . I guess he’s this year’s Ron Brace.

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by Tim Mullhaupt (HSS) on Nov 11, 2009 12:17 PM EST up reply actions

*Meant to say

I wouldn’t be surprised if he turns out to be a late first rounder.

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by Tim Mullhaupt (HSS) on Nov 11, 2009 12:18 PM EST up reply actions

Watch him vs Alabama

by StoneColdSteel on Nov 11, 2009 2:10 PM EST up reply actions

name correction

One of the safety prospects I mentioned is actually Deunta Williams, not Robinson, of North Carolina. UNC has a defense with a number of good prospects.

by steeler.lifer on Nov 9, 2009 4:51 PM EST reply actions