Johnny_S(tatistics) Week 14: A Case of the Doo-Doo Browns

by Johnny_S on Dec 16, 2009 11:23 AM EST Comment 6 comments

First of all, let me start by saying the title is not a knock on the Browns. So all of the Browns trolls can now retract their fingers from their keyboards and scamper back to their back alleys. I even said earlier this week that I had to give props to Rob Ryan for some great schemes out there and his impressive pursuit of Ben. Congrats on your win, now shut it. I'd say act like you've been there before, but it has been awhile for you guys (just joking around, scamper away).

So have we reached the bottom point of the roller coaster yet? I use that term cautiously, because roller coasters are usually fun and return to the top at some point. These last 5 games have been anything but fun and I don't see us making it back up to the top until next year. Apparently, we still have some outside shot of the playoffs and I applaud the fans who remain optimistic throughout the remainder of the season. Just don't get to up in arms about my pessimism because my glass is much less than half empty. Let's jump into the numbers!

Statistic of the week: after the Raiders loss there were 26 fanposts in the following 24 hours. After the Cleveland loss there were 44 fanposts in the following 24 hours. We should shoot for 80 in week 15 (sarcasm).

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Defense

Ranks
(last week)

19.3 points per game (8th)
297.3 yards per game (5th)
4.9 yards per play (T-5th)
77.8 rush yards per game (1st)
3.6 yards per rush (T-2nd)
3 rush TDs allowed (T-1st)
219.6 pass yards per game (17th)
5.7 yards per pass attempt (T-8th)
15 passing TDs allowed (T-12th)
38 sacks (2nd)
-5 Turnover Ratio (24th)

(this week)

18.8 points per game (11th) v
294.1 yards per game (4th) ^
4.9 yards per play (T-4th) ^
84.9 rush yards per game (1st)
3.7 yards per rush (T-3rd) v
4 rush TDs allowed (T-3rd) v
209.3 pass yards per game (13th) ^
5.6 yards per pass attempt (T-5th) ^
15 passing TDs allowed (T-11th) ^
39 sacks (2nd)
-5 Turnover Ratio (T-24th)

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Offense

Ranks
(last week)

22.7 points per game (15th)
374.8 yards per game (7th)
6.4 yards per play (T-4th)
33:20 Time of Possession (4th)
40% 3rd down completion % (T-15th)
116.8 rush yards per game (15th)
4.3 yards per rush (T-11th)
8 rush TDs (20th)
258.0 pass yards per game (10th)
7.3 yards per pass attempt (5th)
21 passing TDs (T-8th)
30 sacks allowed (23rd)
21 turnovers (T-14th)

(this week)

21.4 points per game (16th) v
362.5 yards per game (9th) v
5.8 yards per play (T-8th) v
32:20 Time of Possession (6th) v
38.1% 3rd down completion % (17th) v
113.5 rush yards per game (16th) v
4.2 yards per rush (T-16th) v
8 rush TDs (T-20th)
249.0 pass yards per game (12th) v
7.2 yards per pass attempt (T-6th) v
21 passing TDs (12th) v
38 sacks allowed (T-29th) v
21 turnovers (T-13th) ^

Notice that we made a decrease in ranking in every category except rush TDs and turnovers. However, if you think about it we did decrease in rush TDs rank. Anyone who scored a rush TD got better than us, therefore we did separated ourselves further from the pack.

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Notes on the Week 14 Game

Starting Field Position (SFP)

Steelers: Own 21.5
Browns: Own 32.9 (excluding last drive)

I am not a firm believer that starting field position has a very strong correlation to winning, but it definitely helps. It is even more important in a close game where weather is clearly a factor. This game reminded me of last year where we always seemed to be fighting uphill with field position because of bad Berger punts and poor returns. In this game we struggled because ~~of poor ST coverage~~ Joshua Cribbs is a beast (the glass is half full) and a weak offensive showing.

Average Starting Field Position this Season

Last week:
Steelers: Own 28.49 (22nd)
Opponent: Own 26.84 (6th)
Differential: 1.66 (11th)

Through Week 14
Steelers: Own 28.56 (23rd)
Opponent: Own 26.99 (5th)
Differential: 1.56 (11th)

Weird, we actually decreased in opponents average SFP, however we moved up in the rankings. There must be a team out there who had a worse week of field position than we did. Our differential increased, but that is also no surprise to me, because like I said we got dominated in the field position battle.

Our Inability to Force Turnovers (against bad teams)

How bad was this? It appears all of our secondary are unable to catch a ball. There was one that was gift wrapped to Tyrone Carter (Brady Quinn over threw the WR). Instead of making any attempt to catch it, the ball just struck him. It looked like the unathletic kid with glasses and a pocket protector getting nailed in the face during dodgeball back in grade school. I got a good chuckle.

Troy Polamalu has played roughly 4 games this year. Part of the Titans game, home against Cleveland, Minnesota, Denver, and one drive of the second Cincinnati game (I exclude this one). These stats are nothing new, but if you have not seen them:

With Troy: 11 turnovers, 10.25 avg points against, 4-0
Without Troy: 5 turnovers, 22.56 avg points against, 2-7

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Stats That Make Me Queasy

On the 5 game losing streak we are 19 for 67 on 3rd down conversions. That is a conversion rate of 28.4%. If you didn't already know, that is really bad. For the year, only two teams have a lower 3rd down conversion %, Buffalo (25.4) and KC (25.9). On our 5 game winning streak we were 26 for 55, 47.3%. There seems to be some correlation between converting on 3rd down and winning (duh!). On the year our conversion rate is 38.1% (17th).
Ben Roethlisberger is being sacked 8.1% of the time he drops back to pass. Is that bad? Well we are ranked 27th in that category and the league average is 6.1% (worst Oakland 9.9%, best Indy 1.2%. Apparently Peyton Manning's jersey has remained so clean this year that he has used the same one all year. Okay, I made that up, but 1.2%? Ridiculous). I am not going to get into what causes these sacks, but that situation has to be fixed. Especially, the huge sacks we take in the red zone on 3rd down. Also, in case you were wondering our sack rate was 8.8% last year.
We haven't forced a turnover in two consecutive games and we have not recorded an interception since Denver. So, in roughly 120-130 passing attempts we have not intercepted a single ball. Yikes. What happened to the patent James Harrison strip sack/tackle? I guess he is not getting to the QB enough anymore.

End on a Positive

Santonio Holmes has been on fire in our 5 game losing streak. Just look at the numbers starting from the first loss (rec/yds/TD): 6/93/0, 7/88/0, 6/74/1. 8/149/1, 6/93/0. In the last 5 games he has 34 receptions, 490 yards, and 2 TDs. Also, congratulations to 'Tone for surpassing 1,000 yards for the first time in his career. Before the season I was very skeptical about resigning Holmes. At this point, if we do not resign him I might break something. The most impressive portion of Tones game is that he is beating all types of coverages thrown at him. Man, zone, and even double teams.
I see you LaMarr Woodley. If you are still hatin' on Woodley you need to stop. This guy is getting it done. In that same 5 game losing streak he has 7 sacks and 27 tackles. Those numbers bring his season totals to 9 sacks and 45 tackles. Woodley may have started off slow, but he has caught fire in the second half. If he keeps up the intensity he could surpass his last year numbers (career highs) of 11.5 sacks and 60 tackles. Also, it'd be nice to see LaMaar force a turnover before the season is over.

Sorry this week was light on the statistics, especially toward the game. I've been swamped at work this week. Hopefully, this is enough for you to gnaw on. Please share any interesting numbers you have.

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Comments

Just Wondering

Just wondering how Troy’s absence has anything to do with the inept 3rd down conversion rate the number of sacks allowed and the lack of rushing TD’s? For all of you who say the primary reason for our losses has been Troy’s injury, look at the ineptitude of the OC.

Yea, the team is passing for more yards and TD’s, but if you get sacked in critical situations and can’t run the ball to get a TD in the red zone, you got a problem. The Colts play indoors, we play outside. In November & December you got to run the ball to win.

The stats do not show the fact that we left too much time on the clock when we scored against the Raiders. When the Colts beat the Pats, they ran out the clock so that the Pats had no time to comeback.

The rush defense is great because the CB suck. The key stat is the # of long plays the defense has given up. Too many!!!

Changes need to be made, not lip service and window dressing.

by Steeler Nation VA on Dec 16, 2009 12:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It actually can have an indirect impact on those

A bad defense can have a big impact on an offense. Good defenses win you field position battles and get you turnovers for short fields. With less yards to get down the field, the less chance you have of making a mistake and not collecting 10 yards on 3 downs. Additionally, the further you have to go the more 3rd downs you face. Granted, Troy has no impact on how poor our conversion rate has been. Also, longer drives allow for more chances to get sacks.

I am not saying this team would be perfect with Troy, but we would be miles away from 6-7 and a minuscule shot at the playoffs in week 15. Bears would have gone to OT, Cinci would not have had as much success in the 4th, Chiefs would not have come back, Raiders would not have come back, etc.

Also, in the Raiders game we got the ball left with 5:38 on the clock and I believe the Raiders had all 3 timeouts. When the Colts got the ball there was under 2 minutes and the Pats had no timeouts I believe. Not exactly the same situation. Not to add they were in NE territory to start the drive and we started on our own 20. It woulda been very hard for us to take that clock all the way down. We did almost take 4 minutes off. And it was a bad secondary, Troy much?, that allowed them to go 88 yards down the field very fast.

I was actually going to break down the “long plays” this year vs. last year. However, that requires sorting through box scores and as I said…very busy at work this week.

The Hell that Tomlin & the Steelers have unleashed on me this December is indescribable.

by Johnny_S on Dec 16, 2009 12:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

offense affects defense

This year has also been a case of the offense being sent off the field so a tired defense can come back on. Troy was quoted last year saying that the Steelers defense does mesh well with a quicker, pass-happy offense because they need to be fresh to run it the way Lebeau likes. That goes double for an offense that can’t convert a 3rd down.

by stylepoints on Dec 18, 2009 9:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My guess on Troy's situation

Is that he can definitely affect the amount of sacks you guys have. His ability to play coverage so well forces QB’s to hold onto the ball a little longer and find a different WR. That second or two longer is all the time you guys need for Harrison or Woodley to slam someone. Tyrone Carter just can’t cover like Troy, so QB’s get the ball out quicker and that equates to less sacks.

You have to hate losing more than you love winning.

by Mr MaLoR on Dec 16, 2009 9:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs