To those that loved the on-side kick...
by Psycho Kuz on Dec 21, 2009 2:47 PM EST
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PrintFirst off, we are all Steeler fans here, and it was a great Win regardless and a real reason to celebrate! Plus, our playoff hopes are not only still alive, they are within the realm of reasonable possibility. That being said, I think I was one of the first to call out the on-side kick, and I gave my reasons why. On this board, it seems like most fans loved it...but, I've heard differently among many other Steeler fans who totally hated it, so I'm thinking it's about a 50/50 split at this point.
Trying to be as objectionable as I can, I will list both the pros and cons to the on-side kick decision at 3:58 left in game with score 30-28...
PROS:
1. Highly unlikely to be predicted by GB, so chances on a successful attempt are greatly increase (mabye even as high as 40-50%)
2. If completed successfully, it gives the O a chance to go on a game winning TD drive that consumes most of the 3:58 remaining
3. Reed's distance on KOs has been poor, so even if on-side fails in may only cost 20-25yds. in field position
4. Steeler D has been so poor at holding 4th QTR leads that it seems inevitable that they will give up this lead
5. If on-side kick fails, maybe GB scores fast enough with a short field to give SteelerO one last chance to win it with some time remaining
6. Crosby seemed to be erratic on his FGs and would be kicking into the open end of the stadium, so maybe he misses a FG attempt, if the Steelers fail to recover the on-side (a somewhat weak pro though)
7. Going for the on-side and admitting that he has no confidence in the D means he's admitting something that's been evident for most of the season...that the D can't make a stop when it counts.
CONS:
1. Steeler STs have been relatively poor at executing all season, so that would reduce the % of a successful surprise onside kick (maybe down to 25-35%)
2. Even, if completely successfully, it's not a given that the O would score points or eat up significant clock. This year's O doesn't have a track record of long, clock-griding, game closing drives to protect a lead
3. Even a FG from the O doesn't seal the victory unless it uses up all of the 3:58 (would make score only 33-28).
4. Steeler D has been so poor that GB could score just as quickly from their own 20 as they could from the Steelers 39. (If Tomlin was concerned about GB taking too long to score)
5. If on-side fails, giving GB a short-field may actually enable them use up more clock in going for the score. At that point they would only be about 10-15 yds from reasonable FG range, so they might mix more runs into the play calling, especially if the got a 1st down on the first play to put them in FG range. Otherwise, they are just thinking about scoring primarily and the clock is secondary.
6. If on-side fails, hoping that GB scores fast enough so that O might have a chance with some time left appears as a very desperate move that speaks of "we need to be lucky to win these days".
7. The OL had been getting beat in pass protection for much of the game (Starks in particular against Matthews, but all were having difficulty). Hoping for good protection on one final drive when GB knows the O has to pass on every down is a lot to ask for.
8. Admitting that you have no confidence in your D when the same problems and mistakes have been there all season, speaks of "I didn't know how to fix the problems that were there all season, so at this point all I have left is trickery". Not necessarily something you want from your HC. In other words, why not say you have "no confidence" many games ago and do something about it then, rather than wait until you become desperate.
So, there you have it. What I perceive as the main pros and cons to the decision. I'm sure there are others, so feel free to add your own. For me personally, the cons outweighed the pros in this decision, but for others (Tomlin included) it was the other way around. Either way, it was ultimately Ben and the O (particularly, Heath, Hines, Tone, and Wallace) that pulled out this victory for the team, and that's all that really matters at this point. Feels good to be on the winning side again! Now let's make it two more and hope for the help we need to get into the playoffs.
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Advanced NFL Stats breaks down the decision
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/12/should-steelers-have-kicked-onside.html
A must read for everyone.
When I say who dey, you say we dey.
Follow me @Sn0w13allz
I just read it
and I agree that this is all you need to know.
Very good stuff
The numbers don’t lie. Where’s mottley he needs to check this out and then we’ll see if he’s still bitching for Mike Tomlin to throw in the towel.
Bring a towel to the game. Black or gold or yellow. If you don't have one buy one, If you can't buy one, dye one!
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by SoCalSteelerFan on Dec 21, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions
I look at it a lot like Belichick’s call that people hated.
If you cannot trust your defense to make a stop, then you have to try it. Whatever the percentage of making the play, it is simply added to the percentage of stopping them. Because keeping the ball, is stopping the other teams defense.
Tomlin was right, the defense sucked and the Packers scored. At least we gave ourselves a chance to keep the ball. Like he said plan A didn’t work, but like last years Super Bowl the opponent scores too quick and Ben wins the game.
If you have Ben and a leaky defense, your number 1 goal is to have the ball in Ben’s hand on the last drive. Tomlin got that to happen.
Yeah anything could have happened, but then that’s true of any play. I’d rather have a coach with Balls than a coach who plays by the accepted strategy and loses.
Highly unlikely to be predicted by GB, so chances on a successful attempt are greatly increase (mabye even as high as 40-50%)
It is actually roughly 60% success rate
Optimism. Positivity. Win.
Wow
1. Steeler STs have been relatively poor at executing all season, so that would reduce the % of a successful surprise onside kick (maybe down to 25-35%)
And you just completely made up that stat. Their problem has been coverage and tackling, not recovering an onside kick. That statement is ridiculous.
Optimism. Positivity. Win.
by John Stephens on Dec 21, 2009 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
Man I couldn't read it because it left out a lot of key stats
The numbers were all fudged and this is discussed in other posts.
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
when ya onside Kick
ya want to win the most!
by Steelchamps !! on Dec 21, 2009 4:15 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly
You put in a few words what I’ve been trying to articulate. I supported the onside kick right after it failed and before we won the game. I just liked Tomlin shaking things up and getting out of the late game rut that we have found ourselves in so much this year.
by Citizen of Steeler Nation on Dec 21, 2009 6:28 PM EST up reply actions
I skimmed heavily
Hence the double post
Optimism. Positivity. Win.
by John Stephens on Dec 21, 2009 4:16 PM EST up reply actions
So what
72.9% of all statistics are made up
The only managing Ben does is he manages to WIN games
by chewiesteeler on Dec 21, 2009 4:41 PM EST up reply actions
And
70% of the time I’m right 55% of the time :)
Steelers football is 60 mins.
by tannofsteel84 on Dec 21, 2009 5:03 PM EST up reply actions
Hahaha, dammit
Not in my posts they aren’t!
Optimism. Positivity. Win.
by John Stephens on Dec 21, 2009 5:42 PM EST up reply actions
"1/2 of the game is 99% percent mental" John Madden
I getting tired of saying this: Dick LeBeau’s system is so complex very few rookies can make an impact.
actually its
“90% of the game is mental the other half is physical” Yogi Berra. John Madden screwed it up much like just about everthing else he did
Players who should be in the Hall of Fame
DIck Lebeau, Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Chris Carter and Kevin Greene
2009 Pittsburgh Steelers the Perefect Storm of Suck
Chris Henry 1983-2009 RIP
by WVPiratesfan on Dec 22, 2009 11:34 PM EST up reply actions
Actually, that is probably ...
not a statement of fact. I suspect that it is the poster’s assessment that given 60% of onside kicks are successful and given the Steelers’ problems executing lately, the Steelers’ chances of recovering the onside kick were significantly less [25-30%] that the norm [60%]. Seeing as the Steelers muffed that onside kick, I’d say the poster was fairly accurate.
It is a terrible assessment. So the Steelers have trouble in ST coverage and tackling, so they are going to be 50% worse than average at covering an onside kick? What?!?! That is like saying because the Steelers cannot run the ball, they cannot pass the ball. The two are not directly proportional to each other.
Optimism. Positivity. Win.
by John Stephens on Dec 22, 2009 8:51 AM EST up reply actions
I hate that I have to love the call.
Green Bay scored 22 pts. in the 4th qtr., the chances of us stopping them if we had kicked off deep is pretty slim, especially because they only needed a FG. Had we kicked off deep, the odds are we would have watched a replay of what has happened in almost all of our losses. We have a narrow lead, not much time left, other team scores with little or no time left, we lose. Tomlin did what he felt gave us the best chance to win. I hate that he had to feel that his defense couldn’t stop GB, I love that he had the balls to do what ever it took to win that game no matter how it made him look.
+1
could’t have said it better myself
by 1STstate bucco on Dec 24, 2009 11:18 PM EST up reply actions
Regardless of the stats,
I think you will lose the game more often than not when you take gambles like that. But considering how horribly the Steeler secondary has been playing, the gamble clearly was worthwhile and, better yet, it worked out by the skin of our teeth.
Ooops, almost forgot
Even though I agree with Psycho Kuz about the call, this was just too funny to ignore:
“Trying to be as objectionable as I can, I will list both the pros and cons to the on-side kick decision at 3:58 left in game with score 30-28…”
Based on the reaction, I’d say he succeeded in being quite objectionable.
Thanks Billy 52
actually meant to type unobjectionable (meaning inoffensive), but I failed to re-read it before I posted, so it did end up kinda funny. I think my post was offensive to most..lol
And yes, my stats were just guesses based on things I had read before (sounds like Johnny S has some data that says 60% of all unexpected on-sides kicks are recovered sucessfully). I thought it was more around 50% or less, but I suppose I was off a bit.
My thoughts as to why the % chance for the Steelers would be lower than the avg. was based on the poor performance and preparations of the STs all year. I wasn’t trying to asses the players physical ability as much as their preparation and execution which has been lacking in all phases of the coverage teams. To some degree Ike Taylor made my point by his failure to wait to touch the ball after 10 yds….clearly poor execution, and likely poor preparation.
I’ve actually played on coverage teams before and one thing you are taught when trying to recover an on-side is to pick out the yard line where you have to run to (which is the 40). Kinda like when you run a route for a 1st down, you have to know what yard line you need to get to for the 1st (a pet peeve of mine when the WR runs the route a yd short on 3rd down…not paying attention to the “details” as Tomlin would say. Anyway, you practice running that distance until you get your timing down to where you don’t even need to look for the line, you kinda have a mental feel for the 10 yds and can concentrate on the recovery.
I have no idea how many times the Steelers and Ike had practiced that play. For all I know they may have done it 100s of times in practice and Ike nailed it and Tomlin was confident. On the flip side, if they didn’t practice it much then shame on them. Either way, it appears to me that the STs have been undisciplined all season (don’t get me started about staying in your lanes on coverage teams…another pet peeve!)
Nice summary kuz
Your stats were a bit off according to those average onside kick recovery rates that supposedly make the case for Tomlin, but otherwise I think you summed up the pros and cons pretty well. I also didn’t agree with the onside kick. As you said, the Packers were in position to control the clock with better field position and for a number of reasons (including using a time out, Jones not going down or stepping out out of bounds inside the 10, the futility of the secondary) they did not do so.
by steeler.lifer on Dec 24, 2009 1:38 PM EST up reply actions
Oh good, an onside kick post.
I was afraid we would not be able to discuss this topic.
"We just have to play better as a whole team." James Harrison
by LongTimeSteelersFan on Dec 21, 2009 8:15 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
+1
I getting tired of saying this: Dick LeBeau’s system is so complex very few rookies can make an impact.
Hmmm...
Only wishing someone else would post their sole opinions on the Onside kick.
Bring a towel to the game. Black or gold or yellow. If you don't have one buy one, If you can't buy one, dye one!
Xbox Live Gamertag- Alf Ardanyu
by SoCalSteelerFan on Dec 21, 2009 8:27 PM EST up reply actions
No
We only have 50 threads of opinions on the Onside Kicks. I believe we need more. There’s still threads on the very bottom from one day ago. Too old to be on there if you ask me. Post people post!
Bring a towel to the game. Black or gold or yellow. If you don't have one buy one, If you can't buy one, dye one!
Xbox Live Gamertag- Alf Ardanyu
by SoCalSteelerFan on Dec 22, 2009 1:29 AM EST up reply actions
oh good another comment
about the number if posts about a specific topic
Isn’t that what the FanPosts are for? For fans to post their opinions about something. It is a good thing that there isn’t only 1 fan who has an opinion about each topic.
"Sick Puppy is ultimately as unforgiving as nature's order... There is no redemption or apology." - wikipedia
I agree with you that different opinons are good.
But if we disagree with what someone has posted, why not address it in the original post, instead of having 4 posts on the same subject?
"We just have to play better as a whole team." James Harrison
by LongTimeSteelersFan on Dec 23, 2009 12:38 AM EST up reply actions
Well
Once this website grows in popularity this is going to be a problem. Right now, it is easy to brush it off and say “it is good for everyone to have an opinion.” But what happens when we have 30 or more posts on the same topic and not just 5. The fanposts section will be flooded out, and any quality, unique piece will be washed out and likely unread.
I agree that it is nice that everyone can have a voice, but where do you draw the line? To me, it seems frivolous to have more than 2 posts on the exact same subject. That is why we are allowed to comment. Someone posts a fanpost on a topic, “on-side kick” and everyone can have their voice in the comments. There is no need for a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc. person to make a fanpost on the exact same subject when what they wrote could clearly have been commented under the previous “on-side kick” fanpost. Everyone still has a voice, and everyone’s thoughts, posts, and comments are still read. That would make a much more organized site in my opinion.
Optimism. Positivity. Win.
by John Stephens on Dec 23, 2009 10:38 AM EST up reply actions
The site moderator will have to set up new rules
The only way to keep the fan’s voice free and alive is to continue allowing posts. The moderator could elevate posts; the rest of the fans could recommend the good posts; it really depends on how the site is set up.
Comments get lost under the posts and the fan’s voice isn’t as loud. Even more so when the comments start doing the WAVE or BACONANDEGGS. Look at the amount of space that is taken up just with this conversation. It is very easy for a few people to debate something off-topic & drown out the others.
"Sick Puppy is ultimately as unforgiving as nature's order... There is no redemption or apology." - wikipedia
The reason the comments are drowned out and waves occur is a direct result of frivolous results. It is cause and effect. You are not going to have one without the other.
Having one post per topic would elevate the value of comments and digress the high-tide waves. Otherwise, I am going to keep my surfboard handy and use sarcasm when someone posts exactly what someone else did 10 hours ago.
Optimism. Positivity. Win.
by John Stephens on Dec 23, 2009 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
frivolous results posts.
Optimism. Positivity. Win.
by John Stephens on Dec 23, 2009 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
Which is your right on this site.
I hate that you can’t make corrections to your own posts.
"Sick Puppy is ultimately as unforgiving as nature's order... There is no redemption or apology." - wikipedia
Yeah I like and dislike that
Sometimes it is annoying for simple typos, but it is nice when someone makes a ridiculous claim or something that can’t be deleted.
Optimism. Positivity. Win.
by John Stephens on Dec 23, 2009 11:34 AM EST up reply actions
Coverage performance does not equal onside performance
You cannot make claims about the Steelers special teams being poor and extrapolate to the onside kick. For instance, Ike Taylor does not usually play on kickoffs. More importantly, the ability to kickoff, cover a kickoff, or return a kickoff has little to nothing to do with the ability to execute an onside kick.
by CarlWeathersMustache on Dec 22, 2009 1:21 AM EST reply actions
Well, given that ...
you were all thinking that Tomlin should call for the onside kick, and for the very same reasons that he did, then I would say you all were a little close on when you decded to let the Packers score on their drive. Scoring the winning TD with 0:00 on the clock is more happenstance than design. Work on that will you?
If you didn’t curse the Steelers for the previous pooch kickoff and then for the onsides kick [particularly after Taylor muffed it], then I’d say get off the couch and get on the sideline.
I think there's a message in all of this
but it just keeps coming up ajshlaksoiawpfoq.
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
Is that like an alcohol fog?
"We just have to play better as a whole team." James Harrison
by LongTimeSteelersFan on Dec 22, 2009 10:06 AM EST up reply actions
No it's like
talking to a kid and they say something but never really say it
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
by PixburghArn on Dec 22, 2009 10:10 AM EST up reply actions
It surprised me
I wasn’t sitting there going, c’mon onside kick. OTOH it certainly didn’ t upset me. You never know what would have been but I stand by the thought that if we kick off deep, chances are pretty good that GB drives the field, scores and leaves us almost no time to try to score. Do you really think we would have stopped a team that had already scored 22 pts. in the quarter. As I said ealier, I hate that I have to love the call. I hate that our defense is so pour that they have almost no chance of stopping anyone in the 4th.
I stand by the thought that if we kick off deep, chances are pretty good that GB drives the field, scores and leaves us almost no time to try to score.
Darin, you’ve described the failings of this team this season in one sentence. Nobody has been able to describe a Steeler defense like that for many years.
Sorry, I don’t know how to highlight your quote. I’m a little computer challenged.
No problem
Hard to watch that defense, knowing that with just Troy back and a decent CB to replace Gay this would be a dominant defense again. In looking at our playoff chances, though, if we win out, I think we get in. All the other things that have to happen seem pretty plausible. If Troy can be back for the playoffs and everyone gets their heads screwed on right, no one will want to see the Steelers roll into town.
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