Johnny_S(tatistics) Week 15: Who's your daddy? Ben Roethlisberger!
by John Stephens on Dec 22, 2009 9:45 AM EST
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PrintDamn! It feels good to finally win. Everyone take a deep breath and enjoy this feeling. As you will see in this "Playoff Possibilities" fanpost by imike29 the Steelers are still very much alive in the playoff race. Hopefully, our players and coaches realize the only thing they can do is win and hope the rest falls into their hands. Playoffs or not, I am happy this team kept playing despite its slim playoff hopes. That makes me proud to be a Steelers fan.
On a side note, unrelated to Steelers and football, I would like to wish everyone a happy and safe holiday this week. Drink, be merry, and enjoy the presence of your family. No matter what your circumstances are, you are a wealthy man in my book if you have someone (family) that loves you. Sorry, I'll get off this soap box now. Happy holidays!
Statistic of the week: Only three teams in the NFL have two receivers with over 1,000 yards for the year. The New England Patriots with Randy Moss and Wes Welker, the San Diego Chargers with Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates, and our own Pittsburgh Steelers with Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward. Neither of those two teams have a third receiver over 600 yards. We have two in Heath Miller and Mike Wallace.
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Defense
Ranks
(last week)
18.8 points per game (11th)
294.1 yards per game (4th)
4.9 yards per play (T-4th)
84.9 rush yards per game (1st)
3.7 yards per rush (T-3rd)
4 rush TDs allowed (T-3rd)
209.3 pass yards per game (13th)
5.6 yards per pass attempt (T-5th)
15 passing TDs allowed (T-11th)
39 sacks (2nd)
-5 Turnover Ratio (T-24th)
(this week)
20.0 points per game (T-9th) ^
304.2 yards per game (6th) v
5.1 yards per play (T-9th) v
83.1 rush yards per game (1st)
3.8 yards per rush (T-4th) v
6 rush TDs allowed (4th) v
222.1 pass yards per game (T-17th) v
5.8 yards per pass attempt (T-9th) v
18 passing TDs allowed (T-12th) v
40 sacks (T-2nd)
-5 Turnover Ratio (T-22nd) ^
Another week where a lot of our defensive ranks dropped, that is not quite surprising considering the offensive slugfest we had this week that set a few NFL records. Our pass defense took the biggest hit with a 4 spot drop and the average went up 20 yards per game. Also, another week and no more forced turnovers. That is starting to get ridiculous.
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Offense
Ranks
(last week)
21.4 points per game (16th)
362.5 yards per game (9th)
5.8 yards per play (T-8th)
32:20 Time of Possession (6th)
38.1% 3rd down completion % (17th)
113.5 rush yards per game (16th)
4.2 yards per rush (T-16th)
8 rush TDs (T-20th)
249.0 pass yards per game (12th)
7.2 yards per pass attempt (T-6th)
21 passing TDs (12th)
38 sacks allowed (T-29th)
21 turnovers (T-13th)
(this week)
22.5 points per game (15th) ^
375.1 yards per game (8th) ^
5.9 yards per play (T-4th) ^
32:33 Time of Possession (4th) ^
38.6% 3rd down completion % (17th)
110.2 rush yards per game (19th) v
4.2 yards per rush (T-15th) ^
9 rush TDs (T-19th) ^
286.9 pass yards per game (T-4th) ^
7.2 yards per pass attempt (T-6th)
24 passing TDs (T-8th) ^
43 sacks allowed (30th) v
21 turnovers (T-11th) ^
Obviously, after Ben's and the offenses performance most of our passing ranks increased. And of course, our rushing ranks got worse. The most noticeable statistic here in my opinion is that the offense did not turn over the ball a single time. "Well that is what the offense is supposed to do!" Well consider this, the Packers are 1st in turnover margin at +18 and have forced 33 turnovers this year (3rd). For us to not have one dumb turnover is pretty damn impressive if you ask me. Also, consider that Charles Woodson, a Packer CB, is in the talks for Defensive Player of the year with 8 interceptions, 4 forced fumbles, 2 sacks, and 2 defensive TDs. The Steelers blanked him in all of those categories and they seemed to purposely throw in his direction the majority of the game. Santonio Holmes abused him so bad that Woodson had at least 3 defensive holding calls on him that I can remember. We must resign Holmes!!!
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Notes on the Week 15 Game
Starting Field Position (SFP)
Steelers: Own 27.3 (Much better than last week: 21.5)
Packers: Own 32.2
Two bad special teams squared off here, hence the high average starting field positions. I think Logan had a decent game yesterday. A couple timely returns and no real bone-headed moves in my opinion. Anyway, is it just me or do Jeff Reed's kickoffs seem to be getting shorter and shorter? They all appear to be landing at the 10 yard line now, where 2 or 3 weeks ago it was around the 5 yard line. That is definitely a huge reason why teams are winning field position against us in the last few games.
Average Starting Field Position this Season
Last week:
Steelers: Own 28.56 (23rd)
Opponent: Own 26.99 (5th)
Differential: 1.56 (11th)
Through Week 15 (sorry the ranks haven't come out yet, that stat guy is on vacation I believe, will update)
Steelers: Own 28.45
Opponent: Own 27.36
Differential: 1.09
The On-side Kick
Was it a good call was it a bad call? I remember a few weeks ago Ron Jaworski talking about on-side kicks and their success rate. According to Advanced NFL Stats, on-side kicks have a 26% rate. However, in our situation this is very misleading. On the vast majority of these kicks the opposing team knows it is coming. That allows them to put in the "hands team" and change their formation to have more players to catch the ball. In our case, the Packers were not expecting the kick at all (who was?). When a team is not expecting it on-side kicks have a success rate of roughly 60%.
So Tomlin believed a 60% chance was better than what our defense could offer, was he right? The Packers had 12 drives last night. From those, I will exclude the drive after the on-side kick and the drive at the end of the half. Out of 10 drives the Packers punted 5 times and had 1 missed field goal. It is my opinion, but I am counting the missed FG as a fail by the defense (Crosby failed, our defense didn't win). Therefore, the defense had a success rate of 50%. I am not sure if you are a poker player or not, but when you go all in you want to do that with your best hand, the hand that has the highest % chance of winning. That is what Tomlin did and it was a good call.
Take a look at these screen caps. Ike clearly had the space to let it bounce one more time to cross the 40. He even had a blocker there to take care of Clay Matthews if necessary:
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Stats That Make Me Queasy
- The Big Play. As of week 15, the Steelers have given up 9 big plays (plays of 40+ yards). Additionally, they have given up 16 plays of 30+ yards, 46 plays of 20+ yards, and 95 plays of 15+ yards (These stats do not include returns of any type). Those are the accumulated stats over 14 games. In 2008, in the regular season, 16 games, the defense gave up only 3 big plays. Also, they only gave up 8 plays of 30+ yards, 27 plays over 20+ yards, and 62 plays over 15+ yards. The differentials are +6 in big plays, +8 in 30+ yards, +19 in 20+ yard plays, and +33 in 15+ yard plays and there are two games left to play! Even when you include playoffs in 2008 all of the numbers are still lower than 2009 numbers. Playoff numbers: 4 big plays, 4 30+ plays, 7 20+ plays, and 18+ plays. Does that show how impressive last year's D was or how unimpressive this year's D is?
-
I mentioned last week that Ben has one of the highest sacks per drop backs in the NFL. Well Ben was sacked 5 more times on Sunday (that is 13 in the last 2 weeks) to bring his season total to 43 sacks (2nd most in the league behind Rodgers). Unless our O-Line has 2 tremendous games or Ben throws the ball away he is going to break his career high in 2007 where he was sacked 47 times. That is not a number we want to be increasing for the 100 million dollar man, our franchise QB.
- We haven't forced a turnover in three consecutive games and we have not recorded an interception since Denver. So, in roughly 170-180 passing attempts we have not intercepted a single ball.
End on a Positive
- Hi, Heath Miller. How have you been? Heath Miller had a monster game, 7 receptions and 118 yards. Miller has sprinted past his career highs of 48 recs (2008) and 566 yards (2007) and not looked back. He has 68 receptions and 698 yards, to put him on pace for 78 receptions and nearly 800 yards. Also, he has 5 TDs and has a chance of tying or breaking his 2007 7TD career high. Anyway, the most impressive thing about Heath's game against GB was how open he was. The separation he got allowed him to get a ton of yards after the carry. Your offense will do very, very well if your TE gets open on third and makes big plays.
- I saved the best for last, Ben Roethlisberger. After a lot of us questioning Ben's play this year and a possible locker room controversy, you have to love a response like this. Ben's performance did not say "shhhh" to the critics it said "Shut the hell up and get outta here!" I wanted to find where his 503 yard single game performance ranked all time, but I could not find it. I couldn't even find how many QBs have thrown for over 500 yards in the NFL's history. However, the previous Steelers yardage record was held by Tommy Maddox with 473 yards. I think we are all glad his name can be washed off that record. Also, he is the first QB to throw for 500 yards since Drew Brees did it in 2006 and the first QB to throw for 500 yards in a win since Boomer Esiason did it in 1996. Ben is on pace to break 4,000 passing yards for the first time in his career and break his career completion % for a season (he is at 67.7% and his career high is 66.4%). If Ben can have two more good games he could possibly have his highest QB Rating for a season (he is currently at 100.6 and his career high is 104.1). Update: check out Blitzburgh's post here to compare Ben's game to past 500 yard games.
Ok, I have another Statistic of the Week, complain all you want. The Pittsburgh Steelers are on a 5 game losing 1 game winning streak!
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Thanks...
in a season that has too many negatives, it is still nice to see the positives that are occuring that could set up a phenomenal season next year. Appreciate the work put into compiling those stats.
Thanks!
The big play took a LONG time. I went back through all the drive logs for the last two seasons. I really wanted to have that stat though.
Optimism. Positivity. Win.
by John Stephens on Dec 22, 2009 10:08 AM EST up reply actions
it does make you wonder though, if most of the big plays are happening in the middle of the field, would TP being in there made the difference. I am not saying him being out is the reason, but it could be a factor. It would have been nice to see others in the secondary step up, as the D-line did when Aaron went down.
I cannot remember all the big plays
But clearly on the Jennings catch Carter completely whiffed on that. Troy would have at least made the tackle to stop it at a 20 yard gain if not been there to make a play on the ball. So I think that number would be reduced, but we would still have problems with Gay getting beat where McFadden would not have.
Optimism. Positivity. Win.
by John Stephens on Dec 22, 2009 10:18 AM EST up reply actions
True
Gay has been somewhat of a disappointment. It is showing that all the negativityu is wearing on him if you look at the play where he could have, or at least it looks that way, had a pick six, but stayed with the receiver to knock the ball down. wonder if he makes that play, would we have seen the Gay from last year return.
Oh yeah...
Re: the onside kick..what a difference a yard makes. if ike shows patience, it would have been labeled as one of the greatest calls, especially if we win.
Yeah
I was surprised how much space he had once I watched the replay. Matthews is down at the 42-43 when he touches the ball with 2 blockers to assist him.
Optimism. Positivity. Win.
by John Stephens on Dec 22, 2009 10:07 AM EST up reply actions
rec'd
Great job as usual.
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
A season of firsts
The Steelers have become a pass first team. Gaudy offensive statistics, but too soon to tell if this is the right philosophy for the Steelers.
A Steeler coach admits he had no confidence in his defense to stop the other team so he calls for a controversial onsides kick. This I believe, is unprecedented for the Steelers. At least in the last 40 years. This also is totally on the defensive secondary. The line and linebackers share minimally in my opinion. It was painful watching Gay, Carter and Clark running around like they were lost, missing tackles and looking quite slow. I was particularly disappointed in Gay. He displayed poor coverage skills, poor tackling and can’t run anybody down. I think most Steeler fans entered this season believing we had our future corner in Gay. Carter should not be around next year although if the price is right, I could live with keeping Clark. Big Ben has shown he is one of the elite QBs in the league and with Mendy and our receiving corps, we are as dangerous as anybody but our line needs alot of work.
I don’t expect much if we make the playoffs but I will be screaming as loud as any Steeler fan these last two games and a repeat of 2005 would be nice.
If I remember correctly, Coach Cowher also called some unconventional onsides kick. Maybe it was a lack of confidence in the D, but also it had to be a lot of confidence that our O could get the job done as well. Still say it was the right call.
I remember seeing
Ben’s 503 yards passing put him at 10th on the list for most yards in a game. He’s also only the third QB to throw 500+ yards with no interceptions.
by TomlinsPuffyJacket on Dec 22, 2009 11:49 AM EST reply actions
Yeah I know
I linked Blitz’s post as to not repeat anything. Quite the remarkable performance from Ben.
Optimism. Positivity. Win.
by John Stephens on Dec 22, 2009 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
Another Stat
Ben joins Warren Moon and YA Tittle as the only QBs in NFL history to throw for 500+ yards with no interceptions. There have only been 9 other QBs to throw for 500 yards, 2 sucked and the rest were decent or Hall of Famers. I’m sorry Canton start making the bust now. With 2 super bowls and possibly a 3rd to come in the future this guys is a shoe-in first ballot.
Steelers football is 60 mins.
I think he needs to have a couple more good seasons
To be first ballot, but I think he will get there.
Optimism. Positivity. Win.
by John Stephens on Dec 22, 2009 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
I think Canton can wait.
I agree with you whole heartedly, but, (knew that was coming) if the cap goes away so does most of Ben’s chances of another SB. That’s why I wanted a repeat so much this year. Every capped year lessens the Steeler chances by 10-20%. It has to be this (go Steelers) or next season.
Yes you can count me as a no on the will the NFL soon see a salary cap again poll.
If you buy a foreign made product you give money to a person who will not be buying an American made produdt that you get paid to make. Think about it next time you're at the store.
Even still
every Qb that has won 2 SBs are in the hall of fame. He could not win another SB and still have precedent to get in, just probably not first ballot.
Steelers football is 60 mins.
by tannofsteel84 on Dec 22, 2009 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
not true...
jim plunkett won 2 and is not in..
by nycsteelerfan on Dec 22, 2009 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
You seem to be full of stats yourself
How come you never comment on my fanposts?
Optimism. Positivity. Win.
by John Stephens on Dec 22, 2009 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
be nice to the lady
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
I wasn't being mean
I was genuinely curious.
Optimism. Positivity. Win.
by John Stephens on Dec 22, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
if u made a post that I felt like responding to...
I would! No conspiracy! I get put down a lot here for my comments…EVEN WHEN I AM RIGHT! So, I pick and choose!
by nycsteelerfan on Dec 22, 2009 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
I wasn't make fun of you
I was being serious. I love talking statistics, history, and facts. You seem to know a lot of them, and I bet we could have some good discussions.
Optimism. Positivity. Win.
by John Stephens on Dec 22, 2009 8:09 PM EST up reply actions
really
wow you did some digging on that one because I have heard numerous of people recite that stat and didn’t mention jim plunkett – who did he win the SB with though. just curious
Steelers football is 60 mins.
by tannofsteel84 on Dec 22, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Plunkett
Apparently, the Raiders. He even won SB MVP, which Ben has not yet.
Optimism. Positivity. Win.
by John Stephens on Dec 22, 2009 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
I knew about Jim Plunkett, but that's really the exception that proves the rule
as it seems HOF voters are very biased towards Raiders players (or Al Davis and they get the punishment for it.) Call me a conspiracy theorist but there are a great many Raiders in my opinion from the 70s era that get snubbed
guess I am a true fan..
Surprised? why? because I am a woman?
by nycsteelerfan on Dec 22, 2009 5:24 PM EST up reply actions
That sucks about Sweed
I still think the kid could be a baller if he can get outta his head.
Optimism. Positivity. Win.
by John Stephens on Dec 22, 2009 1:00 PM EST up reply actions
i believe
sweed put too much pressure on himself to perform. maybe he needs to see a good sports psychiatrist to help him just relax and play…that is next season of course.
yea
next season is it for him the 3 year window ends.
Steelers football is 60 mins.
by tannofsteel84 on Dec 22, 2009 1:08 PM EST up reply actions
Joey Galloway?
He’s going to give up his social security check to play again?
The Pats cut him because he couldn’t cut it in their offense…..
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
I like him
we’ve got playmakers, we need a route runner that won’t make big ass mistakes. Sidenote: I picked him up on Madden for an injured Holmes and he’s been a great 3rd reciever compliment…never switch your WR to CB and blitz with them, no matter how much fun it is. They get hurt.
"Now that I'm here, I don't want to just be here, I want to be here for a long time." Hines Ward, 1998 4th round draft pick.
by kick him in the head on Dec 22, 2009 3:15 PM EST up reply actions
I had three sacks with Holmes
and thought I was brilliant, and then, I realized that I wasn’t.
"Now that I'm here, I don't want to just be here, I want to be here for a long time." Hines Ward, 1998 4th round draft pick.
by kick him in the head on Dec 22, 2009 3:39 PM EST up reply actions
hahaha
Madden never lets you have any fun
Optimism. Positivity. Win.
by John Stephens on Dec 22, 2009 3:43 PM EST up reply actions
Rec'd
Like how you worded the part on Ben. Good stuff.
"Now that I'm here, I don't want to just be here, I want to be here for a long time." Hines Ward, 1998 4th round draft pick.
by kick him in the head on Dec 22, 2009 3:16 PM EST reply actions
Thanks buddy
Optimism. Positivity. Win.
by John Stephens on Dec 22, 2009 3:26 PM EST up reply actions
I was starting to wonder...I had the only "rec" up there for a while
and people were “recing” a crappy post but not this one that has substance.
By the way…do you know any scenarios where the Steelers could get into the playoffs?
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." - Winston Churchill
I am about to put up a fanpost about the playoff scenarios
I haven’t seen one around so I thought I’d throw one up.
Optimism. Positivity. Win.
by John Stephens on Dec 22, 2009 4:18 PM EST up reply actions
Oh
And I think my posts don’t get rec’d because people don’t like my sarcasm or don’t want to read it.
Optimism. Positivity. Win.
by John Stephens on Dec 22, 2009 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
I've been getting my ass kicked at work this week
and just finally got to read/rec. Atleast it’s better than getting, awe say, kicked in the head.
"Now that I'm here, I don't want to just be here, I want to be here for a long time." Hines Ward, 1998 4th round draft pick.
by kick him in the head on Dec 22, 2009 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
Who is “him” by the way? And what did he do to deserve to be kicked in the head?
Optimism. Positivity. Win.
by John Stephens on Dec 22, 2009 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
I didn't see ya there
there’s a longer, better explanation but him=whomever the opponent is. Kick him in the head is my battle cry. Scream it some time, like 3rd and 1 with our D on the field, it feels oh so good.
"Now that I'm here, I don't want to just be here, I want to be here for a long time." Hines Ward, 1998 4th round draft pick.
by kick him in the head on Dec 23, 2009 4:52 PM EST up reply actions
Hahaha that is awesome!
I need a battle call
Optimism. Positivity. Win.
by John Stephens on Dec 23, 2009 5:34 PM EST up reply actions
You? Sarcastic?
The only managing Ben does is he manages to WIN games
by chewiesteeler on Dec 22, 2009 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
I see what you did there
Optimism. Positivity. Win.
by John Stephens on Dec 22, 2009 8:10 PM EST up reply actions
I thought the 'S'
stood for Sarcasm, not Statistics! Hmm, maybe a great idea for a recurring poast!
The only managing Ben does is he manages to WIN games
by chewiesteeler on Dec 22, 2009 10:36 PM EST up reply actions
I'll never tell what it means
Then it can have multiple meanings
Johnny Statistics
Johnny Sarcasm
Malor can use Johnny Sucks
etc.
Optimism. Positivity. Win.
by John Stephens on Dec 23, 2009 8:07 AM EST up reply actions
Damn right!
Optimism. Positivity. Win.
by John Stephens on Dec 22, 2009 8:10 PM EST up reply actions
Whut?
"Chris! That's a terrible word! Pussywillows..."
-Lois Griffin
by Steel Spike on Dec 23, 2009 12:10 AM EST up reply actions
Good (and obviously very time consuming) post, rec'd
Stats often make me queasy, but fell that the one’s you post, have been thoroughly researched, and are legitimate.
Heath – Even when his receiving skills seem to get lost in this offense, he never complains, just keeps working, trying to get better. It was nice to see him in your summary.
Happy Holidays to you and your loved ones as well!
"We just have to play better as a whole team." James Harrison
by LongTimeSteelersFan on Dec 22, 2009 7:45 PM EST reply actions
Thanks
Yeah, I believe if we had a good/smart OC Heath could be a 1,000 yard TE. Here is to hoping for that in 2010!
Optimism. Positivity. Win.
by John Stephens on Dec 22, 2009 8:12 PM EST up reply actions
Cheers!
"We just have to play better as a whole team." James Harrison
by LongTimeSteelersFan on Dec 22, 2009 9:06 PM EST up reply actions
Arriba los Steelers!!!!!!
Happy holidays to all Steelers Fans.!!!! We won the Super Bowl This February, and we got a nice Xmas present from Big Ben and Wallace this weekend. We should be happy and have a great Xmas. Life is short we must enjoy it with our family and friends.
Feliz Navidad a todos, and please be safe.
Feliz Navidad a ti tambien
I hope you have a wonderful holiday and hopefully I didn’t screw up the spanish too bad, I am 5 years separated from using it.
Optimism. Positivity. Win.
by John Stephens on Dec 22, 2009 10:04 PM EST up reply actions
Is Good!!!!
Hey Man. Your Spanish is good. I live in Houston but I was born in Mexico. How did you learn spanish? We have tons of fans all over Mexico. We love the Steelers. I was at the Super Bowl this year with my wife and father, Great experience before and after the game. I just wanted to sahe that, and god bless you and your family, We still are alive in the playoff race, and we hope for the best next Sunday.Life is short so we need to appreciate these moments with the people we love and the people we care about. Any time the steelers play in Houston , if youi make the trip, you are welcome to stay at our place.
GO STEELERS!!!!!!
I took five years of Spanish from middle school to high school. It has gotten pretty rusty though because I never use it. I did go to Mexico last month and I got to use a lot of it which was cool.
Thanks for the well wishes and all the same to you. Cooome on playoffs!
Optimism. Positivity. Win.
by John Stephens on Dec 23, 2009 8:09 AM EST up reply actions
Thanks for the perspective info
…lots to chew on, and lots to hope for as we squeak in there.
Ben’s great….at driving me crazy…he would dominate if he wasn’t “Sir Sacked-alot”. Actually, he manages to dominate even so…
Watching the replay right now…Ward had a great game…hope he recovers for BAL
Thanks for the number crunching Johnny
This fanpost has 6 recs.
Shouldn’t it be bumped to the recommended section?
"You have to make it happen." Joe Greene
by LongTimeSteelersFan on Dec 28, 2009 12:16 AM EST reply actions
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