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Johnny_S(tatistics) Week 13: A Failure to Finish

I am going to try to make this a weekly statistical post.  Bear (or bare if you like being in the buff) with me as I work on the layout.

2009 has been a particularly devastating year on any Steeler fan's heart.  High expectations and under performing are generally two ingredients when baking disaster.  To me, we have all the makings of a good team, but for some reason we fail to put it all together on Sundays.  For a while it was bad play in the 4th quarter, then it was special teams for a while, and here we are back to poor 4th quarter play.  Personally, that has made this year extremely hard to digest.  How can a defense play so well for the first 3 and then absolutely fall apart late in games?  I think it is a combination of poor execution, lack of hustle, and uninspiring defensive play calling, however that is an argument I'm not going to dive into.

"We will unleash hell in December," exclaimed Mike Tomlin.  Little did we know this hell would be the complete and utter disappointment we would feel after another huge upset in our opponent's favor.  Tomlin has always been able to talk the talk, but this year he ain't walking the walk.  It's time to shut up and play football.

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Defense

Ranks

19.3 points per game (8th)
297.3 yards per game (5th)
4.9 yards per play (T-5th)
77.8 rush yards per game (1st)
3.6 yards per rush (T-2nd)
3 rush TDs allowed (T-1st)
219.6 pass yards per game (17th)
5.7 yards per pass attempt (T-8th)
15 passing TDs allowed (T-12th)
38 sacks (2nd)
8 interceptions (T-24th)
12 forced fumbles (T-7th)

Without having watched any games this year you would conclude that this defense is very good defense.  The only glaring weakness is their inability to force turnovers, particularly through interceptions.  That has caused the Steelers to be ranked 24th in Giveaway/Takeaway difference at  -6.  That is disastrous for any team that actually wants to win games. Take a look at the teams behind us in turnover ratio: Browns, Lions, Redskins, Buccanneers, Raiders, Titans, Panthers, Rams.  That is not company I would invite over to my house if I was having a "Winners Party".  Additionally, the pass defense looks weak, but appears average in ranking.  Just by looking above, you'd still expect a team with that defense to win.  Anyway, let's dig deeper into despair the statistics.

Yardage

According to the game drive logs, the Steelers have given up a total of 3,498 yards this year.  2,106 of those have come in the first 3 quarters of the games, leaving an astounding 1,392 yards that have come in the 4th quarter or OT (225 yards total in OT).  That means that nearly 40% of the total yards gained on us have been earned after the 3rd quarter whistle.  I will now pause for a  brief moment to allow you all to recover your jaws from the floor.  Okay good.  Breaking those numbers down, we can see that we allow 175.5 yards in the first 3 quarters and 108.3 yards in the 4th.  That means in the first 3 quarters we are allowing 58.5 yards per quarter as compared to nearly double that in the 4th.  You cannot expect to win many games with those numbers, especially when you are a team that generally plays close games.

Points

Moving on, the "defense" has surrendered a total of 231 points in 2009.  126 in the first 3 quarters, which is 10.5 per game and 3.5 per quarter.  The remaining 105 points have been scored in the 4th or OT, which is 8.25 per game (quarter/OT).  That is bad, no doubt, but it is not completely indicative of the defense.  Consider we have allowed 4 KO return TDs and 3 offensive turnover return TDs.  Those are a lot of free points, but that point is a dead horse and I am not some weirdo that is going to beat it up.

Conclusion

Captain Obvious says, "When you give up a lot of yards and points int he 4th quarter, you are not going to win a lot of football games." 

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Offense

Ranks

22.7 points per game (15th)
374.8 yards per game (7th)
6.4 yards per play (T-4th)
33:20 Time of Possession (4th)
40% 3rd down completion % (T-15th)
116.8 rush yards per game (15th)
4.3 yards per rush (T-11th)
8 rush TDs (20th)
258.0 pass yards per game (10th)
7.3 yards per pass attempt (5th)
21 passing TDs (T-8th)
30 sacks allowed (23rd)
21 turnovers (T-14th)

Conclusion

The offense is holding on to the ball longer than the opponent and generating a lot of yards, however, for one reason or another, they are not bringing in the points.  Every team above us in yards per game is scoring at least 25 points a game (except Dallas 23.3).  I think this has to do a lot with poor play-calling in the RZ.  How many times can you recall this season where we went to Heath or a halfback within the 20?  Not a lot.  It appears every other team attempts at least one of those plays per RZ visit, yet we might try one per game.

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Stats That Make Me Queasy

  • William Gay has 64 tackles, the most for a CB in the NFL. If you did not already know, having a guy in the secondary with a lot of tackles is a bad thing.  This means his man is beating him and making a lot of catches.

  • The Kickoff coverage ST has given up 4 TDs (32nd), 1430 yards (28th), and 25.5 yards per return  (31st). Only one other team has given up 2 or more KO TDs (Jets), all the teams with more yards have faced more returns, and the team with more yards per return has faced significantly less returns (Panthers).

  • 1-5 when games are decided by 3 or less points.  Last year we always found a way to win close games, this year we are inventing new ways each week to lose them.

  • In the last two weeks Heath Miller has had 2 receptions and our running backs have had 3 receptions.  Ben, sometimes it is better to check down, and avoid sacks and awful interceptions.

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crazy good breakdown

4th quarter blues

"Now that I'm here, I don't want to just be here, I want to be here for a long time." Hines Ward, 1998 4th round draft pick.

by kick him in the head on Dec 8, 2009 10:13 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Thanks

I was a bit sad this got lost in the wave of bad fanposts. Oh well.

Wall of Shame
-"I’m glad we play Pitt twice, and not Tenn this year." - Brownie's Year
-"BB is ok (slightly overated)…but he is NO Kyle Orton! I’ll take Kyle over Ben any day" - Bronco_Fan_Tom
-PIT 24 KC 27
-Mike Tomlin's idea of "Unleashing Hell"

by Johnny_S on Dec 8, 2009 11:29 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

negative bad or bad bad?

"Now that I'm here, I don't want to just be here, I want to be here for a long time." Hines Ward, 1998 4th round draft pick.

by kick him in the head on Dec 8, 2009 11:41 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Bad bad

I’ve seen at least 10 about us still being able to make the playoffs and how. 10 or so on why we are a bad team. Then about 20 that are just nonsense.

Wall of Shame
-"I’m glad we play Pitt twice, and not Tenn this year." - Brownie's Year
-"BB is ok (slightly overated)…but he is NO Kyle Orton! I’ll take Kyle over Ben any day" - Bronco_Fan_Tom
-PIT 24 KC 27
-Mike Tomlin's idea of "Unleashing Hell"

by Johnny_S on Dec 8, 2009 11:51 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

I haven’t been reading fanposts with less than 2 recs. To much whine, not enough analysis.

by Varmint on Dec 8, 2009 1:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Those 4th quarter stats are depressing.

I can only imagine how this defense feels in the locker right now. So much pride and talent, with NOTHING to show for it this year.

Temporary Saints fan.

by svenhoek on Dec 8, 2009 11:49 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Takeaways score points

Maybe one reason the offense is racking up more yards than points is the lack of takeaways. Takeaways often result in a short field, giving the offense a better chance to score. Got any stats on how our average starting field position compares with the rest of the league?

by Steelin on Dec 8, 2009 1:16 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

That is a statistic I searched for

I haven’t found anything yet, but I will let you know when I get it.

Wall of Shame
-"I’m glad we play Pitt twice, and not Tenn this year." - Brownie's Year
-"BB is ok (slightly overated)…but he is NO Kyle Orton! I’ll take Kyle over Ben any day" - Bronco_Fan_Tom
-PIT 24 KC 27
-Mike Tomlin's idea of "Unleashing Hell"

by Johnny_S on Dec 8, 2009 1:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

you beat me to it

sorry, i posted the exact same question below and didnt read your post

by t1mmy10 on Dec 8, 2009 3:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

good point about the lack of pts on offense

it’s also worthwhile to point out that the 5 teams below us in yards/gm are scoring more pts/gm than we are.
i have a sneaky suspicion that this has to do with avg starting position of our drives. which would directly correlate with a lack of turnovers by our defense. we’re about 5th to last in the league in that.

I have no clue where to look up the stat of avg starting field position tho…or the number of drives that start in the other teams territory. anyone know?

by t1mmy10 on Dec 8, 2009 1:41 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

As I said before I am looking into it

I remember one of the guys from MHR had that in one of his write-ups. So I emailed him, hopefully he will hook me up.

Wall of Shame
-"I’m glad we play Pitt twice, and not Tenn this year." - Brownie's Year
-"BB is ok (slightly overated)…but he is NO Kyle Orton! I’ll take Kyle over Ben any day" - Bronco_Fan_Tom
-PIT 24 KC 27
-Mike Tomlin's idea of "Unleashing Hell"

by Johnny_S on Dec 8, 2009 2:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

*above, not before

Wall of Shame
-"I’m glad we play Pitt twice, and not Tenn this year." - Brownie's Year
-"BB is ok (slightly overated)…but he is NO Kyle Orton! I’ll take Kyle over Ben any day" - Bronco_Fan_Tom
-PIT 24 KC 27
-Mike Tomlin's idea of "Unleashing Hell"

by Johnny_S on Dec 8, 2009 2:02 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

niiice

that would be an awesome stat to have

by t1mmy10 on Dec 8, 2009 2:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It's cold in Kentucky

So if you don’t mind, I’m not gonna “bare” with you while you tweak your layout.

by Billy52 on Dec 8, 2009 1:51 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Thanks, fixed

Wall of Shame
-"I’m glad we play Pitt twice, and not Tenn this year." - Brownie's Year
-"BB is ok (slightly overated)…but he is NO Kyle Orton! I’ll take Kyle over Ben any day" - Bronco_Fan_Tom
-PIT 24 KC 27
-Mike Tomlin's idea of "Unleashing Hell"

by Johnny_S on Dec 8, 2009 2:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Do you know?

The defense ranking per quarter?

I am sure it will look something like 1th 1th 1th 25th

Thanks

by mikemex on Dec 8, 2009 2:28 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

With numbers like those

It is probably 1st, 1st, 1st, 32nd

Wall of Shame
-"I’m glad we play Pitt twice, and not Tenn this year." - Brownie's Year
-"BB is ok (slightly overated)…but he is NO Kyle Orton! I’ll take Kyle over Ben any day" - Bronco_Fan_Tom
-PIT 24 KC 27
-Mike Tomlin's idea of "Unleashing Hell"

by Johnny_S on Dec 8, 2009 2:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Pass plays of 40 yards or more

i remember last year, we had ZERO going into the playoffs and we gave up one to Vincent Jackson, a couple more in the Super Bowl and now it seems to be happening weekly. not sure where you could find the number of pass play’s this year of 40 yards or longer but i would bet that the number is at least double figures. compound that with the lack of turnovers, Ben’s redzone picks, our redzone ineptitude as a whole, no “good bounces” and we are what we are, AVERAGE. damn i hated typing that the Steelers are average. 5 losses by 3 points? Come on man…….

Good post Johnny

"Coach Mike Tomlin promised that his Steelers would unleash hell, not look like it." Ed Bouchette PPG

by WARDANE33 on Dec 8, 2009 2:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah I remember seeing that statistic around

I think it mighta been on TV or someone posted it on here.

Last year we let up 4 pass plays of over 40 yards
I think this year they have given up 20-25 of 40+

Wall of Shame
-"I’m glad we play Pitt twice, and not Tenn this year." - Brownie's Year
-"BB is ok (slightly overated)…but he is NO Kyle Orton! I’ll take Kyle over Ben any day" - Bronco_Fan_Tom
-PIT 24 KC 27
-Mike Tomlin's idea of "Unleashing Hell"

by Johnny_S on Dec 8, 2009 3:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

per nfl.com we've let up 7

we’re tied with 4 other teams for 18th in the league in the number of 40+ plays let up.

we’ve let up 20+ yard passing plays 33 times and are tied for 13th

by t1mmy10 on Dec 8, 2009 3:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe it was 20+ yards I saw

Good stuff timmy

Wall of Shame
-"I’m glad we play Pitt twice, and not Tenn this year." - Brownie's Year
-"BB is ok (slightly overated)…but he is NO Kyle Orton! I’ll take Kyle over Ben any day" - Bronco_Fan_Tom
-PIT 24 KC 27
-Mike Tomlin's idea of "Unleashing Hell"

by Johnny_S on Dec 8, 2009 3:57 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Right on

Poor play calling in the Red Zone is the main reason we’re not scoring enough points to win all these close games. You give the Steeler offense the right plays and they’ve got the talent to captialize on their chances. I have never seen so many brain-dead play calls as we get from Arians in the RZ.

by Billy52 on Dec 8, 2009 3:53 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

gonna hafta respectfully disagree with you there with regards to this week

play calls for this game:

1st trip in zone: 1st & 10) pass → 5 yard gain
2nd & 5) run→ loss of yard
3rd & 6) pass—> incomplete
4th) field goal

2nd trip: 1st & 10) run—> 4 yards
2nd & 6) run → 5 yards
3rd & 1) run→ no gain
4th & 1)run —> no gain

3rd trip: 1st & 10)pass—> interception

4th trip: 1st & goal)run—> TD

5th trip: 1st & 10)run—> 2 yards
2nd & 8)run—> 8 yards
1st & 10)pass—> TD

although 17 pts on 5 trips in RZ is abominable, i dont think a lot of it was due to BA. the INT was Ben’s fault on a clearly bad decision. and he ran twice on 3rd/4th & 1. that’s an issue of execution by our offensive line. if he wouldnt have believed in the run game (which didnt get the job done) and gone for a pass that we didnt get, ppl would criticize him for that too.

by t1mmy10 on Dec 8, 2009 4:04 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

redzone td efficiency this year is 48.8%, scoring efficiency is 85.4% (it is worth mentioning we were 50% in TD and 88.8% in scoring before this week).

i couldnt find any online free rankings for this year, but for last year we’d be ranked 23rd in td efficiency & 15th in scoring efficiency. nothing great but not last in the league like we are in takeaways (4th to last actually)

last year we were 89.8% scoring efficiency (15th) and 55.1% TD efficiency (9th).

i still think our lack of takeaways is what’s killing us. in the other teams territory it’s an easy scoring opportunity & in our end it keeps points off the board.

by t1mmy10 on Dec 8, 2009 4:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

how about this..

why dont they pass to the backs more in the redzone? On the interception…hines was triple covered…

by nycsteelerfan on Dec 8, 2009 6:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i understand BA can improve & i'm not a fan of him but there is NO WAY you can blame him for ben's poor decisions

maybe the play call couldve been better, hines wasnt the only option to throw to on that play (there is NEVER one WR option) and ben should’ve known better than to throw the ball into triple coverage

by t1mmy10 on Dec 8, 2009 11:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Wow I just heard an AWFUL stat

On the 4 game losing streak on 3rd downs we have gone 3-9, 6-16, 4-13, 3-15. That is a total of 16-53 or 30% on 3rd down. Awful!

Wall of Shame
-"I’m glad we play Pitt twice, and not Tenn this year." - Brownie's Year
-"BB is ok (slightly overated)…but he is NO Kyle Orton! I’ll take Kyle over Ben any day" - Bronco_Fan_Tom
-PIT 24 KC 27
-Mike Tomlin's idea of "Unleashing Hell"

by Johnny_S on Dec 8, 2009 4:00 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

3rd down is the QB's down...

Granted one of those games is Dixon, but Ben’s slump-ish (by no means a slump, but in crunch time, for the most part) performences of late aren’t helping.

'I’ve learned to become a flat-liner. There’s a lot out there that’ll make your heart jump if you allow it."
-Coach Tomlin

by NYSteelersFan4 on Dec 8, 2009 4:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

So...

Should we just call you Johnny Statistics now? Like you’re straight out of A Bronx Tale, with Joey Coffeecakes and Mushmouth.

'I’ve learned to become a flat-liner. There’s a lot out there that’ll make your heart jump if you allow it."
-Coach Tomlin

by NYSteelersFan4 on Dec 8, 2009 4:48 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Yes

Because Mushmouth makes me laugh uncontrollably

Wall of Shame
-"I’m glad we play Pitt twice, and not Tenn this year." - Brownie's Year
-"BB is ok (slightly overated)…but he is NO Kyle Orton! I’ll take Kyle over Ben any day" - Bronco_Fan_Tom
-PIT 24 KC 27
-Mike Tomlin's idea of "Unleashing Hell"

by Johnny_S on Dec 8, 2009 4:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

obeekaybee

"Now that I'm here, I don't want to just be here, I want to be here for a long time." Hines Ward, 1998 4th round draft pick.

by kick him in the head on Dec 9, 2009 9:31 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Starting Field Position

Got it. Props to TJ Johnson from the Mile High Report

The Steelers average starting field position for this year is 28.49 (22nd). Compare that to the Chicago Bears who are in 1st with an average starting field position of 33.68 and the St. Louis Rams who are in 32nd, last, with 25.14.

There really is not much of a pattern on teams below us: Jags, Colts, Seahawks, Cowboys, Broncos, 49ers, Lions, Raiders, Titans, Rams. There are a hand full of above 500 teams in there. If you ask me, field position is not extremely important. If your offense is good enough, you find a way to get to the endzone, whether it is a 80 yard drive or a 50 yard drive. I’d be more curious to see a statistic that shows teams with the most 65+ yard drives.

Wall of Shame
-"I’m glad we play Pitt twice, and not Tenn this year." - Brownie's Year
-"BB is ok (slightly overated)…but he is NO Kyle Orton! I’ll take Kyle over Ben any day" - Bronco_Fan_Tom
-PIT 24 KC 27
-Mike Tomlin's idea of "Unleashing Hell"

by Johnny_S on Dec 8, 2009 5:22 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I’d be more curious to see a statistic that shows teams with the most 65+ yard drives.


I bet the Steelers have a ton, that just dont end in the EZ.

by PonchoBrew on Dec 8, 2009 5:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Oddly enough

Our opponents starting field position 26.84 (6th) ?!?! Which gives us a differential of 1.66 which ranks (11th) in the league.

Wall of Shame
-"I’m glad we play Pitt twice, and not Tenn this year." - Brownie's Year
-"BB is ok (slightly overated)…but he is NO Kyle Orton! I’ll take Kyle over Ben any day" - Bronco_Fan_Tom
-PIT 24 KC 27
-Mike Tomlin's idea of "Unleashing Hell"

by Johnny_S on Dec 8, 2009 5:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

that makes no sense

after all those huge returns we gave up! Do they not count into the avg since they never had to run an offensive play?

"Now that I'm here, I don't want to just be here, I want to be here for a long time." Hines Ward, 1998 4th round draft pick.

by kick him in the head on Dec 9, 2009 9:34 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That is a problem with starting field position

TJ Johnson from MHR told me they do not count them. He said when he does his analysis he just counts a return TD as 100, however the place I got my stats from does not do that.

On another note though, Sepulveda has been punting pretty damn good this year and that also plays into our opponents starting field position.

Wall of Shame
-"I’m glad we play Pitt twice, and not Tenn this year." - Brownie's Year
-"BB is ok (slightly overated)…but he is NO Kyle Orton! I’ll take Kyle over Ben any day" - Bronco_Fan_Tom
-PIT 24 KC 27
-Mike Tomlin's idea of "Unleashing Hell"

by Johnny_S on Dec 9, 2009 10:25 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

"teams with the most 65+ yard drives"

i agree it’s not all about the avg. and it’s a false representation of the real thing

every drive starts out with a certain percentage chance you’ll score. the further you are away, the more first downs you have to pick up to keep the drive alive (unless you hit a big play) and the less chance you’ll score.

for instance, say we have 12 drives in a game. all tend to start about 15-30 yard line except for 2 we start on the opponents 30. our avg drive starting position would be 30.4.
-now if the same was true except those drives started on our 40, our avg drive starting position would be 25.4.
in the first situation we’d have much better chance of scoring more pts than in the second, yet our avg starting field position is only different than by 5 avg. yards per drive.
-and you could have the same avg. drive if we just started every drive at the 30…which would be probably the least likely chance we’d score pts

i’d be really interested to see how we rank with drives started in the other teams territory.

by t1mmy10 on Dec 8, 2009 11:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Good stuff

Nice post Johnny.

by jharmon64 on Dec 8, 2009 7:24 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Wow i just threw up.

Formely 2005steelers4life, Here We Go Steelers Here We Go

by xRideTheBus36xx on Dec 8, 2009 8:59 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Good stuff, Johnny. Here's something else to consider:

The difference between winning and losing in the NFL is always so slim. I remember Bill Parcells saying just about every game comes down to 5 plays that swing the result one way or another. Take last week. I can think of three on the Raiders winning drive that jump out right away: Burnett dropping the INT; Mundy getting the roughness penalty on an incomplete pass on 1st and 15 that gave the Raiders a first down at the 11; and Mundy (again) failing to recognize Louis Murphy slipping behind him on the winning TD and letting Gradkowski’s pass sail just over his fingertips. If any of those plays had gone differently, we probably win the game. But we had young guys on the field and they didn’t make the plays they had to.

Contrast that to last year. Last year we were brilliant in the 4th quarter. We came back and won late against Jacksonville, San Diego, Dallas and Baltimore. In each of those games we seized our opportunities and made the defining plays we needed to win. This year we’re not making those plays. I don’t think we’re considerably worse than we were last year. But we’re definitely not as opportunistic.

Much of that has to do with leadership. It’s the team leaders who either make or inspire those crucial plays that decide outcomes. Most of our failed opportunities have been on the defensive side of the ball, and absent Troy and Aaron Smith for most of the season, you can see the leadership void. I wonder what the huddle was like on the final drive Sunday. Who kept the secondary together? Who recognized what the Raiders were doing and knew how to react to it? With the absence of team leaders comes the absence of crucial plays. I hate to say it but I just don’t think we can fill that void right now.

by cliff harris is still a punk! on Dec 9, 2009 10:46 AM EST reply actions   0 recs


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