Jumping the Gun : Nxt Yrs Schedule

by 13thieves on Feb 4, 2009 12:49 PM EST Comment 23 comments

There's still so much to do, basking in the SB victory, breaking down personel, anticipating front office moves, not to mention the mother of all offseason projects in mock drafting. But I would like to jump over all that and look at the Steeler's upcoming schedule.

This year we have the AFC West and the NFC North. I've read that our home games (excluding the division): Ten, SD, Oak, GB, Min and our away games: Den, KC, Chi, Det, Mia. Not nearly the intimidating schedule the Steelers faced this year.

Looking over the teams many of them our in outright rebuilding mode: Det, KC, and Oak. Chi is not really rebuilding, but not ready to compete yet and I'm not sure I buy Mia's rapid turn around. Min and Ten lack QBs to win (though I've heard rumors that Min will be looking to acquire Cassel or McNabb, Ten will look to Collins to manage the game or continue to develope Vince Young), while Den, GB, and SD have championship pieces, but not the overall make up yet.

Looking at the division, I think we all expect Bal to improve. Flacco showed great poise for a rookie who came from nonpowerhouse football program, the D is as brutal as ever, and it's a hungry team. Suggs will probably be lured away by big bucks, but the D always seems to be able to reload. Cin is a difficult team to gauge. With so many weapons you can't write them off, but their season rides on Palmer, if he's healthy they might be a pesky team. Cle still seems another year or two from competing.

You should never count on sweeping the Ravens and away games are tricky even if you're playing the Browns or Bengals so I'll estimate that we go 4-2 in the division.

Among the AFCWest, we should beat Oak at home and KC away and I think we could go 1-1 against SD at home and Den away. So 3-1.

NFCNorth, depends on how tough Min or GB will be but assuming we split with them, and I think we can beat Chi and Det away, which would mean 3-1 again.

That leaves Ten at home and Mia away and let's just say that they both beat us, 0-2.

For the season we would be 10-6 and 7-5 versus the AFC. There's always a surprise or two and the Steelers could easily be a 12 win team, but I find it hard to believe, excluding serious injuries, that we'd be worse than 9 wins. Winning 10 is usually enough to get into the playoffs and from there -as Arizona just demonstrated- anything can happen. Looks like another good year for us Steeler fans.

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doubt we'd loose to miami and/or tennesse

by tha1andonly57@aim.com on Feb 4, 2009 1:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Can't Know for Sure, but...

I think the Ravens are due for a down turn. Losing their defensive coach is not going to be something they just shake off. Worse, they are bound to lose at least one of their Linebackers, and possibly two. Ray Lewis could very well leave for bigger money (say to NY Jets). If that happens, I think they will be an 8-8 team, and yes, I think we sweep them.

The Browns are at the beginning of a rebuild. I have no faith in Mangini, and I expect them to be 7-9 if they are lucky. We’ll sweep them. The Bengals will probably lose Houshmandzadeh. They have serious problems, although they were not as bad as their record indicated.

In other words, we could very well sweep the division (depending on how it falls. If we end up playing them in a meaningless game… could be different).

TEN, SD, GB, OAK, MIN — I think we go 3-2 there.

Den, KC, Det, Chi, Mia — We are probably 4-1

Which means, lets say 5-1 division and 7-3 outside.

12-4 and in the playoffs again would be my guess.

I also think our Division is in for a down year. 10-6 could win the division this year.

http://www.fannation.com/blogs/show/428951-markjoel66s-blog

by MarkJoel66 on Feb 4, 2009 2:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

and that 2nd place spot

in the division gets the ratbirds games with the Colts and Pats – haha – gotta love that aspect

by 703Steeler on Feb 4, 2009 2:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

i too think that the ravens will start to decline defensive wise. Rex Ryan is a pretty big loss, and they can possibly lose Ray Lewis (I think Suggs will stay). Id be pretty interested in hearing a ravens fan’s opinion on that team going forward.

by steelersfan86 on Feb 4, 2009 6:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

The Ravens cannot keep all their FAs: Brown, Suggs, Lewis, Scott, others. Some of these guys had monster years this year and it is well documented that players perform best in contract years. Even the ones they do resign will likely fall off some.

by CarlWeathersMustache on Feb 4, 2009 8:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Strength of schedule is tricky because it is based on the previous year… Steeler’s pre-season strength of schedule was #1… If you look at actual winning percentages of opponents the Steelers strength of schedule was 3rd or 4th…

The schedule for ’09 looks favorable but in reality we can never know…

by WETSU on Feb 4, 2009 2:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yep

Bengals and Browns will considerably improve their records from this year. Bengals get Palmer back and Browns get to play with a QB now.

by steelersfan86 on Feb 4, 2009 6:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But...

If the Steelers go 7-9, they may have had the #1 strength of schedule because that would give the opponents 5 more wins. It’s harder (but not impossible) to have a high strength of schedule when you win many games.

by CarlWeathersMustache on Feb 4, 2009 8:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Indeed.

A true measure of strength of schedule factors out the games you played against your opponents. You need to normalize the date first. Somebody posted a table a few weeks ago with this data, it had three SoS columns: Strength of schedule based on 16 games, strength of schedule (minus games vs. the opponent) and strength of schedule based on opponents strengths of schedule (the 2nd degree calculation).

Guns don't kill people. Lamar Woodley kills people.

by BostonWahoo on Feb 5, 2009 4:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

“data” not “date”

Guns don't kill people. Lamar Woodley kills people.

by BostonWahoo on Feb 5, 2009 4:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Optimistically

I agree that the Ravens might step back. Flacco’s success might lead them to require more from him, which may lead to more mistakes. I’m assuming they’ll work hard to keep two of the three defensive FAs that they have. Moneywise, it looks like Suggs will be the one that gets away.

From what I’ve heard, if Cincy can’t extend Housh then they’ll franchise him. I expect them to keep TJH and add a RB. I think you’re right about Mangini, unless Brady Quinn plays like a superstar they’re in for a long three/four years.

I think 10-6 is conservative and enough to get into the playoffs, but with the D and an offense playing under its potential we could easily win upwards of 14.

by 13thieves on Feb 4, 2009 3:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Though it stands to go against conventional wisdom that the bengals will always be the bungles, I could see them putting up a fight this year. Their defense performed very admirably down the stretch but their offense was hamstrung by poor running and an unhealthy palmer. I could see them doing decently especially with a more forgiving schedule than last year when they were forced to play with the big boys every week.

The browns did not look good this last year.

Hard to say about the ravens, they have been up and down almost every year. It stands to reason that next year will be a down year, especially with the loss of rexy. Flacco could improve though, and they benefit from the same thing the rest of us do in the AFC north, an easier schedule.

After our division getting stuck with a gauntlet last year, I think the AFC north could post pretty decent records this year. There’s still a lot of off-season to go for all of us though, as well as the teams we’ll be playing. Some of the teams could look completely different by the team the pre-season starts.

Don't worry about the haters. Haters only hate.

by steelguy99 on Feb 4, 2009 3:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

The problem we faced this year will be reversed. Basically this year, Baltimore had the easier 2 elected games whereas ours were very tough from winning division in 07.

Now however, we get better opponents and Baltimore has the Pats and Colts.

Baltimore though, like this year, could win a lot of games and put pressure on us. But again in the end our 2 wins over them will help it all out.

by Mechem on Feb 4, 2009 10:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Of the 16 games next season, only 3 are against a team that beat us the last time we played them. And only 2 of those were legitimate losses (I don’t see Oakland as a team we’ll lose to again).

by 36chambers on Feb 4, 2009 4:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

i dont see Oakland as a team, period, let alone one we might lose to :)

by Blitzburgh on Feb 4, 2009 9:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Jim Rome

Jim Rome was talking about the Raider’s new head coach aka “The Cable Guy”. It was pretty funny.. interestingly, he said something like: “And everyone thinks Cable is a good football mind. Yeah, the guy really knows offensive lines. That makes a good head coach.”

And I thought: Hmmmm wonder if they are saying the same thing about Russ Grimm? It is intersting that the guy we almost picked as our head coach is getting no action… while Todd Haley is…

by MarkJoel66 on Feb 4, 2009 10:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We lost to them in 06

Granted 06 was a complete scratch of a year, and I pretend it never happened. But still.

by Mechem on Feb 4, 2009 10:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sched looks sexy

Basically my biggest concern would have to be the Ten’Teeth Titans. Baltimore is a 2nd.

Miami is a busto. And will go down.
The entire AFC West sucks.
The entire NFC North Sucks
Our division has nothing on us.

But the Ten’Teeth titans come here this year. And Baltimore loses a step with the defense and therefore becomes an easier win for us. Heck we woulda been up a whole hell of a lot if Limas catches that TD. So its not like their D is godly.

I’ll give it 14-2, with a stupid road loss somewhere in there. Top seed AFC.

by Mechem on Feb 4, 2009 10:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs