Behind the Steel Curtain: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
Around SBN: Spencer Hall's Sports Meme Power Rankings

Why the Steelers nearly lost Super Bowl XLIII

09000d5d80e84fad_gallery_600_medium

What causes this? (via static.nfl.com)

 

 

So, everyone's heard the crusty old quote - "The prevent defense/offense only prevents you from winning!" I personally think that we saw a perfect example of why that's true in this past game. Up by 13 with only a quarter to play, you saw the aggressive defense that had nearly completely shut down the Cardinals abandoned for a conservative, "stop the big play" defense that manifestly failed to do so. You also witnessed a conservative offense that was just trying to grind out the clock instead of trying to throw another set of nails in Arizona's coffin.


That last paragraph sounds fine, but it's really only an opinion without some kind of scientific fact to back it up. Isn't it better to be conservative when you have the lead? After all, you don't want to get aggressive and give up an INT return, or allow a big play on defense... I can't recommend this article highly enough for a scholarly, thorough statistical analysis of why this is exactly the wrong approach, and why it leads to losing games. The author gives a great statistical analysis of win probability by lead vs. time in game, and what it means (or should mean) to coaches. I'm not going to excerpt much of it, because it should be read in its entirety, but I will whet your appetite with this:

Something big happens right around the 4th quarter mark that changes the nature of the game. This seems to be the point where teams stop playing a conventional contest of point maximization, and they start maneuvering for the end game. Teams that are ahead would take fewer risks while teams that are behind would take greater risks. Both teams would start managing the clock, either jockeying for that extra possession or running down the clock.

...

Throughout much of the 2nd half, a team with the ball, down by 1 point, will probably win the game.

...

Effectively, this means that throughout much of the 4th quarter, teams on defense with a one point lead are already losing. They just don't know it yet.

Anyway, we all know how it ended - the Cardinals scored too quickly, which was our saving grace - if they had ground out two more minutes of clock, we're probably here discussing this very topic with much more fire instead of marveling at what a gamer #7 is...


Food for thought - what do all of you think?

0 recs  |  Comment 20 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Not as close

as it might have seemed. I’ve been watching the NFLN Replay of the SB all week. The more i watch the game, the more it seems to me that not only did Pittsburgh pretty much dominate the game, the Cards really only had about 5 plays that were anything more than mediocre. It just so happened that 3 of those plays led directly to TDs. The biggest difference was that AZ was able to get TDs, where PIT only got FGs on a couple redzone posessions. Had it not been for a couple calls, the Cards wouldn’t have even had a chance to win- the definitely-questionable “holding for safety” one in particular.

 Overall, it is my “personal opinion” that the Cards were never really very close to winning the game, despite how it may have appeared…

by tobiathan on Feb 9, 2009 1:24 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Never close to winning it ..

..except when they took the leas with 2 mins left to play .. LOL ..

by Rash92 on Feb 10, 2009 8:17 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think Fitzgerald

only ran that fast because Deebo was right behind him saying “What you got on my drink?”

"The team that scores the most points wins."
John Madden
(Master of the obvious)

by PixburghArn on Feb 9, 2009 8:08 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Completely Agree

The Prevent Defense is the worst scheme every imagined. You start debating between time and yards, saying its ok for them to gain yards as long as it takes up time but with the rules of the game today it takes little time for teams to gain yards. You never really saw the prevent defense in the 85 bear, the 70s steelers. They dominated teams for 60 mins and never let up. This was the superbowl and they should have been playing their defense for 60 mins. The cadinals were on pace to have less than 200 yards that game, to put that into perspective the last place offense in the NFL average 245 yards a game. But when they went to the prevent defense the Cards generated 223 yards of offense in one quarter. If they would have taken 2 more minutes to score then yea the Cards would have won. Now I have to argue with Strkied idiots Strkied haters people who try to say the Cards dominated Pittsburgh for 4 quarters. Jeez I dunno what Dick L. was thinking but you don’t want to second guess him and especially after he won but don’t put the prevent in until 2:00 mins left in the game and we had scored another touchdown to make it 27-7, until then you play to win the game, not to lose it.

by tannofsteel84 on Feb 9, 2009 9:22 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

sorry

it should be idiots and haters lol first time using the feature

by tannofsteel84 on Feb 9, 2009 9:23 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Prevent sucks

but that is not why Fitz scored the TD. In fact, it was because the safeties didn’t stay in prevent that he scored. If you watch the play, Troy and Clark are super deep but actually move toward the line of scrimmage to play the deep out routes. This moves both safeties to the sidelines and leaves a seam in the middle. If the safeties stay deep, you have to think Troy and/or Clark make the tackle after a big gain (maybe 20-25 yards) but certainly not a TD.

I agree with the point though: the prevent only prevents you from winning. But I can’t resist pointing out a fatal flaw in that article (at least as cited: I didn’t read the link). The divergence in risk taking strategies is only costly to the winning team if riskier strategies are rewading. It’s a poor understanding of risk to say playing risky pays off. A strategy is only “risky” if there is a higher upside in exchange for a higher or more likely downside. Otherwise, you’re not taking a risk, you’re betting on a sure thing. I don’t think anyone thinks passing all the time, especially if its deep (risky strategy), is a sure thing.

by CarlWeathersMustache on Feb 9, 2009 10:27 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

Yup

Both safeties broke to cover out routes. The double coverage left Ike alone in the middle with Fitzgerald. When he missed the tackle there wasn’t a single player behind him. The Steelers played a very agressive D on that play and it didn’t work.

by SteelerBuddha on Feb 9, 2009 2:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thats exactly the point ..

they strayed away from the prevent in that play with 4 DB’s up in tight man coverage and then the safeties both jumped the out routes instead of playing safe and staying back in coverage. That was an aggressive play and we got burned and it almost cost us the SB ..

Now I’m not a real believer in the prevent but you saw with that one play that you can lose a game in 10 seconds so its no wonder coaches want to extend the game and make the other side run as many plays as possible to make it harder for them to score and to give your D enough chances to stop them …

by Rash92 on Feb 10, 2009 8:20 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not me

I love the prevent defense. That is exactly what the Cardinals were doing while Ben and Santonio marched up the field in the last 2 minutes of the game.

by Varmint on Feb 9, 2009 1:19 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Again

I don’t think this is true. The cardinals were regularly sending 4 or 5 guys on the rush – not three. On the big play of the drive Holmes was in single coverage and when his guy slipped he was able to go for 40 yards.

by SteelerBuddha on Feb 9, 2009 2:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes indeed.

Don't worry about the haters. Haters only hate.

by steelguy99 on Feb 9, 2009 2:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I dunno

I recall seeing 4 rushers. I don’t recall 5. (I could be wrong, but that’s what I recall.) At times, they had a guy hovering around the LoS waiting for a check down to a TE or RB, but the pressure was not overwhelming.

by Varmint on Feb 9, 2009 5:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hmmm....

Sounds like I need to watch that drive again.

I’ll suffer through it.

by Varmint on Feb 9, 2009 9:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

good excuse for me to rewatch again too

1st play, 1st and 10 – holding – show blitz, rush 4 (the refs giving us the game again!)
2nd play, 1st and 20 – rush 4
3rd play, 2nd and 6 – rush 4
4th play, 3rd and 6 – rush 5
5th play, 1st and 10 – rush 4
6th play, 1st and 10 – rush 4
7th play, 2nd and 6 – rush 5
8th play, 1st and goal – rush 4
9th play, 1st and goal – rush 4

They rushed 5 twice out of 9 plays, which is pretty aggressive for that stage of the game. They never rushed less than 4 which the cardinals could definitely do. The safeties did seem to be playing deep though. Overall, kudos to the cardinals for not turtling. The offensive line (and ben voodoo magician) showed that if the line can handle 5 rushing, santonio is going to burn you.

Don't worry about the haters. Haters only hate.

by steelguy99 on Feb 10, 2009 9:04 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Wow

Thanks for that write up. I thought I remembered it right, but truth is I was just guessing. I was to hopped up on adrenaline on that drive to remember anything right. Where are you watching the replays?

by SteelerBuddha on Feb 11, 2009 3:49 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

So basically

head coaches should pretend they’re playing Madden.

by r0ry on Feb 9, 2009 1:40 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Prevent D works

from ESPN:

Let’s say an offense is down five with two minutes to go, and has to drive 80 yards for the winning score. Facing a prevent defense, only short, quick tosses between the numbers are surefire completions. But even those take 20 seconds off the clock. If that offense doesn’t have a timeout, they can afford to throw six of those passes in 120 seconds. That means they need to average around 12 yards per attempt to hit pay dirt in time. That’s nearly impossible to do by dinking and dunking. In fact, during the playoffs from 2005 to 2007, teams facing the prevent averaged just 5.6 yards per attempt.

Not that ESPN knows anything about sports, but the Prevent D when used correctly (or played correctly Troy!) should force a team to tiptoe down the field (eating up the clock) or rush a throw into coverage.

by 13thieves on Feb 9, 2009 4:49 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

There is a big IF

IF the offense does not have a timeout.

Many cases, that simply is not the situation. And as a result teams are far more cavalier in their passing. And in addition, having a timeout opens up the middle of the field as you dont need to get OOB. Which also shifts how hard the defense can play you.

by Mechem on Feb 9, 2009 6:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Also

5.6 Y/A but I bet the completion percentage goes up a hell of a lot which saves time by eliminating plays that net you zero yards. I think the prevent works best when you are in a high scoring game b/c your D has not been working anyway so just try to force them to eat up time.

When you have a D like the Steelers, you do not need to change your gameplan to the opponent’s strategy. They have to change to yours. I bet when a team has scored fourteen or less throughout the first 58 minutes of the game the prevent Y/A goes way up from the rest of the game meaning it is not effective. Just a guess.

by CarlWeathersMustache on Feb 9, 2009 10:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to BTSC, a blog dedicated to the SIX-time world champion Steelers.

"Thoughtful discussion with a sense of history."

Art Rooney Jr.

"Level-headed thinking." Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Start posting about the Steelers »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Ward_small
"That's just bad football" - The Jamaal Charles KO Return
Small
What players have you most wished could have been Steelers?
2196876391_dcb0380cb0_small
Okay. We need some fun!
Me_small
The BTSC Predict the Score Competition, Wk 11 @ KC Chiefs
J_page_small
Talk Chiefs with AP

Recent FanPosts

Small
Four Footfall Gods
Markstadiumoutside_small
House is a Steelers Fan
Small
Tomlin a great coach?
Rayray_small
The number that does not lie
Marani3_small
Question: Keenan Lewis and Joe Burnett ?
Steelers_small
This One's OnThe Coach
Steelers-logo1_small
Why Tomlin don't fire the worst 2 coordinators in Steelers history?
Jester_small
A glimmer of hope
2940734199_1654fd3f61_small
Charlie Batch out for six weeks

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Latest NFL Headlines from SB Nation

SPONSORS


Site Founder & Editor

Mbean_small Blitzburgh

Steelers Historian

Steeler_small maryrose

Bringing You Your Daily Six Pack

Plainview_small drinkyourmilkshake