A Statistical Analysis on the Greatest Defenses in NFL History

Great post.

I’d like to see how all the team’s compare when you take into account the turnovers by their respective offenses, and likewise the points off of those turnovers. I feel the 08 Steelers PPG were greatly inflated by this.

Also, ST stats should also play a significant part in defensive effectiveness. I know the 2000 Ravens had a great ST unit. The 08 Steelers, not so much, though we did get 3 huge PRs from Santonio this year.

I agree that it’s impossible to reach any conclusion from statistics, but there’s still clearly a lot of value in this analysis. That being said, I’d love to see opponents starting field position factored in. I can recall some awful punting and opponents getting a couple of 3 and out field goals this year.

Not just cause I’m a semi-fan. For one I’m somewhat convinced by many of the arguments that the wolfpack described. Second, something you didn’t stress was TO’s by the defense. 54 turnovers by that d! That’s helping your team win just as much keeping points off the board.

And I would agree that winning has to factor in to the greatness equation. It’s awesome to have good stats but if that does not translate into winning then it’s moot in my opinion.

how long did it take you to do all this? This is amazing. Great stuff.

Wow, really great stuff here. I never heard about the Atlanta Falcons of 1977, but they had the best points per game and yards per game total. I think you dismissed them as best defense ever way too easily.

I also think that performance in the postseason matters. IMO, the Steelers defense of 2008 took a hit because they performed worse in the playoffs. Rivers and Warner had more than 300 yard passing games. The defense let up 14 points in the final 10 minutes of the Super Bowl and nearly blew that game. I know that Silverback had one of the best plays ever, but I have a tough time arguing for best defense ever with the 4th quarter SB performance. On the other hand, the Ravens defense of 2000 totally dominated that Super Bowl. I can’t remember what they did in the rest of the playoffs, but they certainly left a lasting impression.

Check it out below:

Titans cornerback to visit Steelers tomorrow
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
By Gerry Dulac, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Tennessee Titans cornerback Chris Carr, who is one of the top return specialists in the American Football Conference, will visit with the Steelers tomorrow — the second unrestricted free agent to interview on the South Side this week.

Carr was a backup with the Titans last season after spending the previous three seasons with the Oakland Raiders. He finished third in kick returns (28.1-yard avg.) and eighth in punt returns (10.1 avg.) in the AFC last season.

The Steelers are looking for an extra cornerback after losing Bryant McFadden to the Arizona Cardinals in free agency. Carr has also visited with the Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions and has not ruled out returning to the Titans.

 - Guys, is it just me or do the Steelers need to really get this one done?

Thoughts?

I think for us older guys, what left the biggest impression in our minds was the spectacular stretch of ten games made by the 76 Steelers defense. Their performance during that stretch of 10 games was amazing, the way they totally dominated the opposition could only be compared to the way the Patriots offense dominated defenses for their first 10 games of 2007.

But when you incorporate the stats of their first 4 games, I agreed you can always have this argument of which was the best historical defense.

But in our minds that stretch of games will always make the 76 Steelers defense the best of al times. And I know this wrong, but I have never seen a defense even get close to that defense.

Thanks for putting in all the work Wolf and Blitz. It is funny to be a Steeler fan on a Steeler site, and what I want to do now is read up on the 77 Falcons. I was never a fan of the idea that you had to win the super bowl to be remembered as great, but I have never heard of that team in any conversation.

I am still going to vote for the 76 Steelers. Numbers wise I am on the fence. Though I feel the greatest defense over a period of time is the Steel Curtain, and if they feel their best defense was in 76, I have to vote that way. :)

I know it is really hard if not impossible to really compare eras, but it makes me wonder how good the Steeler’s 08 team stats would have been with 76 rules.

That was a masterpiece of research and analysis. I also really appreciated your inclusion of some little known but great defenses in that group. Along with most others I voted for the ’76 Steelers but as someone who watched that entire era, my evaluation is biased by the overall body of work of the Steel Curtain dynasty. That stretch of games in 1976 was the best defense I have ever seen, but it was just the visible peak of a massive iceberg of dominating defense for 4-5 years.

As for your pick of the Eagles, I think they gave up too many points (significantly more than the other teams on your list) for the strength of schedule and their own team’s poor offense to act as enough mitigation. At some point a truly great defense has to shut the door in key games. That’s why I would consider the 2000 Ravens better than the Eagles and better than all but the ‘76 Steelers and perhaps the 85 Bears on your list. The Ravens’ post-season performance against four good teams (which scored a total of 23 points, not sure if any of those points were on ST or defensive scores) was remarkable, very similar to the 85 Bears’ post-season run (10 total points in three games). Admittedly you didn’t analyse the post-season games so that’s an unfair criticism of the purpose of your study, but a missing piece of the puzzle in my opinion. Another aspect of the Ravens’ 2000 regular season is that they gave up 36 points (nearly a quarter of their season total) in one game early in the season. Opponents scored more than 10 points in only five of their 20 total games that year. Again, those stats are very similar to the 85 Bears. This past year, by comparison, the Steelers gave up more than 10 points 11 times in 19 games including all three post-season games. It’s a toss-up between the 85 Bears and 2000 Ravens for the No. 2 defense but that’s an opinion based on impressions of performance in key games, which is far more subjective than your exhaustive research.

So much of football defies statistical analysis but your work provides a much more accurate perspective of the whole picture than anything else I’ve read in a comparative study of different eras. Fantastic job!!!

this was interesting. I liked that the 77 falcons were a really damn good d, and many never heard of them before. I suppose your strength of opponents’ offense argument didn’t completely win me over, cause i voted for those falcons, amazing numbers…. then again, I totally agree about ravens soft schedule that year… maybe if i could vote again, i’d go iggles or one of the steelers teams.

Great discussions! I believe I have found my home. I am living in Dallas, Texas as an avid NFL fan and a diehard Steeler fan. I just can’t find anyone in Dallas who can discuss NFL football as well as I am finding at this site. Please allow my 2 cents on the subject of which team has the Greatest NFL Defense. The data presented by Wolf is excellent data and analysis. I think we all agree that more variables could be added but the ruff cut work is all there and additional variables would not significantly change the outcome of his work. The one variable most everyone is struggling with, including myself, is “TIME”, e.g., Wolf logically chose a single season to measure the team’s defenses. He even went so far as to normalize the seasons that had a different number of games. A defense could be great for the time period of a single play and that would let a whole lot of teams in the door for analysis. As we stretch the time period to measure the Defense to a series of plays, a quarter, a half or an entire game the number of potential Teams with the greatest NFL Defensive starts to drop out of the running. Most of the posts listed look to be measuring the time period as one year although I saw one look at a 10 game series, some included post season games and some looked at multiple seasons. My point is the longer the measurement time period is the more difficult the accomplishment to be the Greatest and the more teams drop out of the running. This type analysis is similar to making the NFL Hall of Fame. A football player (or coach/commissioner) is measured over his entire career for selection into the Hall as one of the best. The same goes for selecting the Team with the greatest NFL Defense, i.e., the Defense must stand the test of time. I contend that one season is not long enough to measure the greatest NFL defense. So, in my humble opinion, if one wants to be the greatest at anything one must stand the test of time. With that said, my vote for the Greatest Defense in NFL history is the Pittsburgh Steelers Defense represented by the 1976 Steelers.

Blitz, thanks for the kind words.

To younger Stillers fans who agrue current day Stillers teams or players over 70s teams and players, or your particular argument regarding current day offenses over heyday defenses, I usually simply point to their rearing as the problem. That is, I blame their parents for not having properly versed them in the history of the game.

PLEASE don’t take offense to that comment. It’s a little bit tounge-in-cheek and meant to be funny.

It’s also meant to make a point.

The game changed in the 70s. 70s and beyond teams could actually play with current day teams. 60s and prior teams could not.

Why? Speed and size.

The best teams of the 70s – though undersized by today’s standards – could actually play with AND beat current day teams. Put them in current day sizes, along with their skills and wills, and it really wouldn’t be much of a game.

Don’t believe me?

Pop in the DVDs of the original broadcast of SB IX or X – I trust that you own them. Note the speed of the game. Note the incredible speed and power of the Stillers “Half a Ton of Trouble.”

SB IX is the most revealing. That was a very worthy Vikings OL that was simply swallowed up by the Curtain.

Or more specifically to address your argument – on three of the biggest stages in the 70s, SB X, SB XIII and SB XIII1/2 (as SI dubbed it), the Stillers three times beat the Cryboys, the most prolific, inventive and ground-breaking offense of its day.

Would love to add more but gotta get to my day job and you need to watch some film.

Blitz: When I have time later today, I’ll get back to you on a few comments/questions/corrections(?) to your 2009 CAP numbers.

Your work on the Stillers CAP is GREAt and I REALLY appreciate it.

Also BTW, GREAT Web site!

And again, please don’t take the rearing quip the wrong way- it’s one of my standing jokes that I routinely level on young Stillers diehards. You are clearly one of the best I’ve come across recently.

PixArn: Not sure about Jim Brown, the guy I regard as one of the top five players of all time and perhaps the best. He was a unique beast of a player that I wouldn’t deny anything to. If I would deny him anything though, it would be the ability to crease the Curtain.

One of my best buddies is (much to my dismay) a Bears and Cubs diehard. Even he admits the Bears LBs were sub-par in coverage. Knowing him as I do, that comment translates to me to mean they were not very good at all. Besides him though, this is commonly noted by many talking heads when they discuss any weaknesses in the 85 Bears D. It’s the given. Shame on you for arguing otherwise. (BTW, NFLN is this week running a Bears-Packers game from mid-1985. Those LBs don’t look so good in coverage to me in that game.)

Again, if you saw the MNF classic against MIA, you saw those LBs badly exposed by a constant barrage of underneath crossing routes. It looked as if there were 8 MIA WRs on every play and Marino had to pick and chose which totally open guy to hit.

Regarding the 85 Bears post-season, you missed my point entirely. Let me try again.

The truly great ones (teams, players, organizations) are measured against other truly great ones. The old, “Ali had Frazier and Frazier had Ali.”

The 70s Stillers were blessed to have several great oppponents like the 70s Raiders, 70s Cryboys and the 78 and 79 Oilers. Yes, the Oilers probably win two SBs XII and XIV if not for the Stillers.

The 85 Bears, much to their misfortune, will never be able to be regarded as truly the Best Defense Ever because they played CRAP teams in the post-season.
  
The Giants did win it all in 86 but they were lucky to even be in the playoffs in 85 at 10-6. Unfortunately they took down the Niners in the WC Game. Simms came into his own in 86, not 85.

Who besides me and a few LA Rams fans even remembers the name Dieter Brock or that he actually QB’d a team in an NFC Title Game?

Who will ever forget the debacle that was the Grogan-Eason-led Patsies? Again, too bad they took down MIA. Super Bowl XX should have simply been forfeited.

Again, had the 85 Bears played SF and/or MIA in the post-season, this debate would not have to haunt Stillers fans for the rest of our lives.

I think the most telling comment about the mid-to-late-80s Bears comes from Singletary himself. While discussing the great teams and what makes them truly great, and how the Bears rank in that discussion,

(paraphrasing) “We f*#d up! We had the chance to win multiple Super Bowls and be considered among the greatest of all time, but we blew it.”

Guys, I have been a person who have found tapes and CD’s of the great Steelers games in the playoffs and Super Bowls in the 70’s and one of the things that stand out to me is how athletic, quick and fast those Steelers defensive players were. Lambert and Jack Ham could close on ballcarriers like nobody’s business. They played just as well in pass coverage as they did the run, which is what you don’t see that much of today.

Mel Blount tormented receivers and flung them around like they were rag dolls. All of those guys wouldn’t have a problem playing for this team today. Joe Greene pretty much did whatever he wanted to do. Free Agency has pretty much ruined a repeat of that happening again. Now, you just can’t keep that type of talent together for long.

Thoughts?

steeler.lifer said:

“And Dan Marino beating them in the Super Bowl? Are you kidding? Marino never won the big game and crapped the bed against the Patriots in the AFC championship when his team was good enough to make it. The Bears would have eaten him for lunch given a chance to avenge the regular season game.”

No, I’m not kidding about Marino beating them in the SB. He was in the big dance once (the prior year, 1984) and lost to perhaps the best QB of all time, Montana.

I look at two main factors in the 1985 scenario:

(1) Marino absolutely torched the Bears 38-24 in the MNF classic and that alone would have given him and the Fins a HUGE amount of confidence in the SB. The Bears had absolutely no answer for Marino that night and may have had no answer for him in the SB. The Bears would have been out for revenge but can anybody just simply assume they would have gotten it? I think not.

(2) If you look at the list of 43 starting and losing SB QBs, you will find a definitive trend – the team with the better QB better wins WAY MORE OFTEN than they lose. Between 1966 and 1989, they ALMOST ALWAYS won. I know McMahon had a dream season in 85, but he can’t even be mentioned in the same breath as Marino. The Fins had knocked on the door in 1984 and unfortunately ran into the Niners and Montana. In 1985, McMahon was standing in their way. Yeah, yeah, so was the Bears vaunted D. But if the Fins get up early in that game and Marino is lighting up the board, McMahon had only Willie Gault to bring them back. Ain’t happening.

On your other main point, I know the Bears beat the Niners in the regular season in 85 and ran off a string of HUGE wins over their stiffest foes – I hear that at least once a month from one of my three Bears buddies. I also know that they slithered by the lowly Bucs (2-14), Packers (8-8) and Colts (5-11) that same year.

To assume the Bears would have beaten the Niners in the NFC Title Game is just that, an assumption. The Niners (like the Stillers in the 70s) were capaple of winning the SB EVERY YEAR in the 80s, and did win it in 81, 84, 88 and 89. Had they made it to the NFC Title Game against the Bears in 85, I would have had my money on the defending SB Champs – back to that whole QB thing, I’ll take Montana over McMahon every time in a BIG game.

As footnotes to all of this…

I’ve fought this war of words for 24 years now and I won’t stop fighting it until I die. I owe it the Stillers. I owe it to all of the “historians” who are blinded by one glorious season.

I owe it to all of the obnoxious Bears fans I’ve encountered over the years. Like the guy above who lamely tried to put a diffrerent spin on Singletary’s heart-felt admission of his team “blowing it” post-1985. Singletary meant what he said. The Bears were full of themselves. They thought they were going to prance right into the history books and be remembered as at least multiple SB Champs if not a dynasty. Instead, they won one stinking SB and must take their rightful place in history as a team that should have won several but blew it. Mike knows it and deep down every Bears fan alive knows it. That’s part of why they cling to 85 so profoundly – it’s all they got and it helps ease the pain of letting a dynasty get blown away.

Trying to be honest, but you shouldn’t be so quick to write off the 2000 Ravens Defense simply because they don’t seem up to snuff.

An in depth look at that year has the Ravens and the Titans – Two undeniable top 10 defenses – in the same division that year shutting down 4 other teams twice that season, and sharing 2 more games after that.

Of these 10 Ravens games, you had 2 teams doing above average for their season in yards and 1 in points. And the Titans games? 9 for 10 offensese doing under par for yards and for 10 for points. So obviously it’s not just a case of bad offenses that year.

The 2008 Steelers saw 3 teams twice, and while the same division once again shared the top 2 defenses, this would only have a large impact on 2 teams, as opposed to 4. And the Ravens were no Titans to the Steelers’ Ravens, if you follow. You’ve written that off, and yet, it’d have a huge effect on the Jags and Steelers, who did well in spite of that, would have moved the Bengals out of the basement, and would have put the Browns in a realm of Comparison to our fair Falcons.

Basically, you should try to see how well their defense SHOULD have done before considering how well it did do. Where does each team they played go if they didn’t exit that year? You make next to no effort in determining how good each of the teams they played are, and that’s where the comparison loses a lot of it’s force.

And you should also be using more than 7 teams.

I have a relative (sadly a Pats fan) who believes that the true definition of a “Best Defense” should rely solely on points-allowed. I don’t agree for many of the statistical and logical reasons mentioned in your post, but from a 30,000 foot level, the points-against argument has some validity.

Thoughts?

The 2008 Steelers saw 3 teams twice, and while the same division once again shared the top 2 defenses, this would only have a large impact on 2 teams, as opposed to 4. And the Ravens were no Titans to the Steelers’ Ravens, if you follow. You’ve written that off, and yet, it’d have a huge effect on the Jags and Steelers, who did well in spite of that, would have moved the Bengals out of the basement, and would have put the Browns in a realm of Comparison to our fair Falcons.I think they are taking viagra or probably zimulti.Hope for the best

what about the 02-03 bucs defense! 10 Passing td’s 8 rushing td’s 4044 total yards allowed and 198 points aloud. that tops some of the ones you listed : )

Ok, so I am joining in kinda late, but i just discovered this site and the high intellect it purports…so thanks, and hello all.

Let’s add a little-recognized stat that reflects on a defense’s component nature, how many of its individual players attained Hall of Fame status…not a true “team” stat that carries very much weight except for how post-career analysis allows history to also have a clearer input as to how good someone was in comparison to others. Yes, it’s somewhat trivial to cumulatively add HOF members from each defense, but if we’re looking for tie-breakers, maybe this has marginal merit.

1973 Rams – 2 HOF members (Olsen, Yungblood)
1976 Steelers – 4 HOF members (Greene, Hamm, Blount, Lambert)
1977 Falcons – 0 HOF members
1985 Bears – 2 HOF members (Singletary, Hampton)
1991 Eagles – 1 HOF member (White)
2000 Ravens – 1 HOF member (Woodson)
2008 Steelers – 0 HOF members

Obviously, the 2000 Ravens and 2008 Steelers have not reached the point where their defensive players have ended their careers, so inclusion into the HOF precludes both being measured this way. Ray Lewis seems like a lock, and Siragusa a strong maybe, while James Harrison and Troy Polamalu are still defining what could be HOF careers.

As a tie-breaker, this may settle a few things, but it will definitely add fuel to many-a-fire… just more fodder for your heads…

1. How many all time great teamsvdid the defense play? For example the 1990 New York Giants played two of the great offenses that ever played – the 49ers (played them twice that year) and Bills. The ‘89 Niners were considered one of the best offenses ever and they weren’t much different in ’90. And the 1990 “no huddle” Bills were one of the most high powered offenses ever. So how did the Giants fare in these games? They allowed 7 & 13 points against the 49ers and 19 points against the Bills and won the Super Bowl.

2. How did they perform in the Playoffs / Super Bowl as compared to the regular season? Great teams have the ability to turn it up a notch when the chips are on the table which reveals the “true talent”, while over-rated units get exposed.

3. What was the defensive scheme & philosophy? Taking the 1990 Giants again as an example they purposely allowed small chunks of yards – playing a “bend but don’t break” defense that basically waited for the offense to kill themselves with penalties, turnovers, sacks or poor execution, and if the offense got into Giants territory they ensured to only allow field goals. Combined with their offense that ran the ball and chewed up huge chunks of time off the clock it was a lethal combination. Both offense and defense worked together to wear down their opponent, playing perfect ball control and field postion football. Am I saying the 1990 Giants were the best ever? No, but they should certainly get a look – as should the 2002 Bucs as they played a similiar style of defense allowing over 4000 yards but only 196 points.

4. How many Pro Bowl and All Pro players were on the team during that year? This data is available on ProFootballReference.com. It’s not the best thing to incude because some defenses had average players that played great as a team, but as a tie breaker this could help.

5. One of the best stats for OFF/DEF efficiency is yards per point. In 2008 the NFL average was 14.85. So this will tell you how many yards an offense had to gain before scoring one point, so the higher the better for defenses. Here are the numbers:

1977 Falcons 25.13
1976 Steelers 24.07
2000 Ravens 24.04
1985 Bears: 20.88
2008 Steelers 17.01
1973 Rams 16.57
1991 Eagles: 14.54

2002 Bucs 20.63
1990 Giants 19.93