This guy must have serious issues for him to drop like that. Lets hop we don’t screw up the draft this year.

Great value chart Bad and appreciate the research you put into it. As you know Gilbert is becoming a popular first-round pick for the Steelers by some mock draft prognosticators, including two who have great insight and sources, Pat Kirwan and Lance Zierlein (Larry’s son). I watch a lot of college football but have never seen Gilbert other than video highlights and Shrine Bowl workouts (and his famous and football irrelevant YouTube video of jumping out of a swimming pool). Zierlein was present at the Shrine Bowl and said that in every respect the guy was physically dominant against better competition than he faced during the season. My impression is that he is a unique athlete, which makes him similar in some respects to Lawrence Timmons, who was drafted higher than many expected because his athleticism translated to huge potential despite a limited college career (one year as a starter). With so many teams shifting to a 3-4 I think Gilbert is going to be picked sooner than your valuation. The same circumstances will likely result in Tyson Jackson going to someone like the Packers, Broncos, Chargers or even Patriots, well before the Steelers’ turn.

The Steelers have a history of finding their best 3-4 DEs late in the draft (Kiesel, Smith, Roye, Henry, Willis as an undrafted gem) or from other teams (Kimo, Seals). The higher drafted guys haven’t worked out so well (Davidson, Buckner, Aaron Jones, Goodman, Gary). Historical patterns mean nothing in terms of evaluation, but I think it does show that you can find guys that excel in our system later in the draft because the position requires intelligence, coachability and a high motor rather than the pure athletic measurables you are typically looking for at the top end of the draft. The Patriots have gone the other way with their 3-4, using high first-round picks on Seymour and Wilfork. They don’t have the same run responsibilities though as the Steelers’ 3-4 DEs. History would suggest the Steelers can find a guy later in the draft, but since that approach failed miserably with Ryan McBean there is a very good chance that either Hood or Gilbert will be our first-rounder, or a prime guy to target by trading up into the second round if our first-rounder is at a different position.

I like Fili Moala (who is the cousin of Ravens nose tackle Ngata) as a 3rd round pick, he’d be a good value there. I have to say, I really like players with Saomoa heritage, all tough as nails, hard workers, team guys.

I do not like Tyson Jackson in the first…had 1 good year and has that rep of having all the potential in the world but not playing up to it.

I like the value chart. There are a number of guys I haven’t heard of. I am looking forward to researching. Just looking at your 1st round picks, I have recently starting to like Hood. My only current concern is the the Big 12 didn’t seem to play any defense this last year. There were a lot of 60 to 45 games. This could mean nothing, but are his numbers better because of this?

As for Jackson, he played in a league that played a lot better defense, but you brought up a great point. Was his numbers better 2 years ago because of Dorsey? I also hate reading scouting reports questioning a guys motor.

Many people know the difference between 34 DE’s and 43 DE’s (though i wish draft scout type sites differentiated…). But even among 34 D’s there are differences.

SteelCityInsider had the best Steelers post I’ve read in a while on this topic… made my subscription totally worth it. Very enlightening. (But the community there are idiots, not like our crew).

Patriots go high picks on their DE’s because their version of the 34 is a 2-gap D where the defensive linemen need to be big and strong enough to play two gaps while quick enough to make plays. Special athletes, essentially.

The Steelers D is a mix of 1 gap (DE’s) and 2 gap (NT on 1st and 2nd down) defense. But to complicate matters, LeBeau’s zone blitz requires linemen to drop into coverage. So you need well-rounded athletes that aren’t necessarily freaks of nature.

I think in the 1st round, if Tyson Jackson is there they will take him. I don’t think they would trade up for a DE. Because we look for guys that are a bit smaller and more mobile (as Colbert said – 6’5" and 290) it’s harder to find but also more likely that even in an age of increasing 34 popularity, these “tweeners” slip to us in late rounds.

Jarron Gilbert seems to fit that model, but i’d qualify that by saying that Tomlin drafts tape, so i disagree with commenters and mock drafts who think he’s our guy at 1.32. Timmons had a poor pro day, but he had a season of tape against high-level competition, and if I recall he was behind a future pro-bowl LB on the depth chart. And everything I’ve heard about Gilbert is that he’s the Charles Johnson of 34 ends – he just didn’t show up enough in games to be worth a 1st round pick and 1st round guaranteed money.

I think they draft a DT conversion project in the 1st / 2nd only if a great guy falls to them, otherwise, they look to a NT in 3-5 and a DE in 4-7 based on value.

I believe we could get a quality defensive lineman in the second round, I’ve seen some mock drafts have us picking Gilbert but he’s going to be gone before that. So are we trying to draft a DLineman in the second round and have our first round pick for an OL, or are we going to snag one in the first round? Of course its take the best player available, but what’s it looking like now?

looking forward to the o-line one. Really would like to see us pick up a huge NT sometime this draft. Although anyone who can be comparable to Aaron Smith would also be great.

    Thanks for the analysis, Bad. I tend to agree on Evander “Ziggy” Hood. At 6’3" 295 he is worth considering as a comparison to Aaron Smith. Legitimate NFL size, he plays with passion, he plays physically, he seems to like the hand-to-hand aspect of the trenches and purues down the line well. He’s not a “beast” per se, but doesn’t have to be in the 3-4 scheme. He would be a nice addition considering we need the depth.
    Jackson, on the other hand, is one on whom I’m not sold. He lines up next to Glenn Dorsey and can only muster 3.5 sacks? He doesn’t strike me as Steeler material, whereas Jarron Gilbert does.

How can anyone be considering anyone in the first round while comparing him to Kiesel?
Think Dammit!!!! Kiesel is a 7th rounder. You need a serious game-“effectior” in the first round (game-changer is so oversused). Rule Number 1 is you do NOT draft a defensive end in the 3-4 defense in the first round EVER, unless he is named Bruce Smith. EVER.

We need the best offenisve linemen or the best cornerback available. End of story. I would be happy if we traded up in either round 1 for one of the positions mentioned above, or round 2 for a receiver who drops. Please, enough with the defensive end talk in round 1 as that is just plain stupid for the 3-4.