BTSC 2009 Community Mock Draft - Pick #1 by the Detroit Lions: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor

by Blitzburgh on Mar 19, 2009 12:27 AM EDT Comment 21 comments

And the 2009 BTSC Community Mock Draft is officially under way. Many thanks to steelerark, one of the site's longest standing readers. I'll be interested to hear the feedback on the selection, not to mention eager to see what the Lions will actually do this coming April now that Matt Millen is no longer in the picture to botch things in Motown. Many thanks to steelerark for the thoughtful write up. That means the St. Louis Rams and PsychoSalameh are on the clock. For those who don't have it, be sure to stow away my email address of behindthesteelcurtain@gmail.com for when it's your turn to select. Thanks! - Blitz-

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When looking at the Lions, it's hard not to see failure just about everywhere you look. There are so many holes on this team it's hard to imagine how Matt Millen kept his job for so long. Very few teams have had as many draft busts as the Detroit Lions over the years. I decided to just round it off and go back 10 years through the draft to see just how they have done. It is not pretty. Discounting the 2008 pick Gosder Cherilus, only 3 first round picks are starting. As a matter of fact, those three are the only three that are still on the team.

Mike Williams, Charles Rodgers, Stockar McDougle and Chris Claiborne are not even in football any more. Joey Harrington is considered one of the all time busts, mainly due to the enormous expectations placed on him at the time. Roy Williams was successful and was dealt to Dallas for several picks, including the 20th pick I will use later on in this draft. Jeff Backus, Millen's first pick, has been a good tackle for the team, starting in 128 straight games since joining the team. He has no Pro Bowls, but still has provided consistency and stability at the left tackle spot for most of the decade. Ernie Sims has been great at linebacker, and of course, everyone who follows football knows who Calvin Johnson is.

The Lions have had the same lack of success with the second round with three second rounders still on the team. And as for third round picks, literally no one besides 2008 pick Kevin Smith (and again, I'm discounting the 2008 draft since it's too early to assign bust/success status) is left on the team. The poor quality of the Lions drafting process is astounding, and it showed in the won/loss column. No team was worse than Detroit in the last ten years. In the seven years Millen was president, the Lions set several dubious records including posting the first 0-16 season (although Millen was fired 3 games into the season) and being the first team in NFL history to lose every road game 3 seasons in a row for a streak of 24 games.

So that's what I'm dealing with. A team coming off of an historically horrible season with literally nowhere to go but up. There are just so many holes that it was hard to know where to begin. I can tell you where I am not going, and that is quarterback. My pick will not be Matthew Stafford. I've seen Matt play up close and have watched many Georgia games on TV being an SEC fan. While I believe that he has a chance to be successful in the league, I just don't think that the Lions can afford to take a chance on a guy with so many question marks. He is very inconsistent. He's got a 57% completion percentage in 2+ years. At the collegiate level, even in the defensively stout SEC, that's not a high mark.

Now don't get me wrong. Again, I'm not saying that Matt won't be successful. I'm just saying that a team that has had so much draft failure for so long just can't afford to reach concerning the most important position on the team.

Going back to the '99 draft, 29 quarterbacks have been drafted in the 1st round. 12 of those started last year. That's 42%. 2 of those starters were rookies, Ryan and Flacco. Russell is still struggling to gain respect in Oakland and even Cutler's future in Denver is hazy (although he will definitely start wherever he ends up). The list of busts is huge, Harrington, There is just too much uncertainty at quarterback for the Lions to spend this first overall pick on a guy like Stafford.

This has been labeled a draft with no clear cut superstar that stands out as a definite #1 overall. That's why I'm going to go with a guy who has looked like a sure fire, can't lose prospect.

Jason Smith - OT, Baylor

I had been planning to go with Curry since the combine, but last week's trade for Julian Peterson threw a wrench in my plot. It seems as if they are really setting up to draft elsewhere and I believe that they will now go with Smith or Stafford However, I think that they should draft Curry and move him inside, where he has publicly stated that he has always had a desire to play MLB and that he would love to play with Peterson...

I just don't think that they will. Acquiring Peterson has really pissed me off, as I've done all my research on Curry and how he would affect the team. But, it is what it is. Jason Smith weighs in at 6'5", 310lbs.

I'm not going to pretend like I know a lot about him since he is from the football powerhouse that is Baylor, so here is his NFL.com proflile...

Jason Smith Profile

Next up: St. Louis Rams - PsychoSalameh

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Comments

whoops

i left out the last bit of ’arks post, including the pertinent links he included plus his analysis there at the end. my bad.

anyway, anyone think that this is a huge reach? like the pick?

by Blitzburgh on Mar 19, 2009 12:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think

If I am a Lions fan I am very satisfied with this pick; It is a safe pick that should sure up a postion for a decade.

If stafford isn’t picked here I think he has a huge potential to fall, I think he could possibly fall all the way to the Lions other pick in the first round, and if not Sanchez, or Freeman should be available..

No sense picking another quarterback like Joey Harrington and setting the franchise back another 5 years or more…

But we are talking about the Lions here who haven’t made a lot of smart roster decisions recently.

I also would of said to stay away from Stafford last year though.

I'll drink your Milkshake, I'll drink it up!

by drinkyourmilkshake on Mar 19, 2009 12:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I like this pick

I would have gone for J Smith or Eugene Monroe with this pick instead of taking Stafford as well. I think that a team with so many holes should look to the lines first, and this pick should give them a fixture at LT for the next decade. IMO, going LB or QB here ties up a lot of money in positions that are more likely to get injured without having a even remotely decent team around them. Tackles do get injured, but it just seems to happen much less frequently than most other positions. Or maybe that’s just my impression.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Mar 19, 2009 2:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Stafford

I think they should take a QB here and one of the good lineman that will be left at 20. I just dont see any OT being so dominant that the difference between picking one at 1 or 20 will make that much of a difference. If they didnt have that later pick, I would agree, but since they do, I think they should go QB

by gimpsta7 on Mar 19, 2009 3:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Do you think

that Stafford is that much more of sure thing than Sanchez or Freeman?

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Mar 19, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that was my main problem

there just is no clear cut #1 in this year’s draft. The Lions have so many holes, how do you decide which one to fill that isn’t a reach? If I were allowed, I would have totally tried to trade down in this draft. With the poor success rate of QBs in the first round, there is no way I would touch Stafford with the number one overall. That is what has been plaguing them during the Millen years.

by steelerark on Mar 19, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The problem is...

With no clear number one, who would want to trade up?

I'll drink your Milkshake, I'll drink it up!

by drinkyourmilkshake on Mar 19, 2009 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

too true

Washington maybe? They seem to love to throw the dough around.

by steelerark on Mar 19, 2009 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

That’s why you go the Parcells route. Tell a guy you want him, but get him signed to a reasonable deal before the draft.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Mar 20, 2009 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep....

I have been thinking about this for a few years now and wonder if it will ever happen…

A Front office is saddled with the number one pick, but doesn’t want to pay number one pick money….why don’t they get a guy that is projected to be around number 15 and give him a contract that is valued above what it would be a for a number 15 pick, but considerably less than the money for a number 1 pick. A compromise that seems to favor both sides as long as the player wants to play for that organization.

I'll drink your Milkshake, I'll drink it up!

by drinkyourmilkshake on Mar 20, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting idea

I think that the Bears did something similar back in the 80s. They had a tentative contract in place when they drafted Mark Carrier. They didn’t have the number 1 pick, but they took him at spot that was above his projected draft position (enough above to make it unlikely that he’d be taken ahead of them).

At that point it seems like it was a lot more common for the first round picks to hold out.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Mar 20, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ya, also a Quarterback at number 1 is millions more expensive too

I'll drink your Milkshake, I'll drink it up!

by drinkyourmilkshake on Mar 19, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The agent for the OT

will try to say that they should be paid top overall, but yeah, you’re right. Look at the difference between Jake Long and Matt Ryan’s money.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Mar 19, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lions could trade the No. 1 pick

Cleveland, Denver and maybe the New York Jets could be interested enough in Stafford to make a deal that sends a young veteran QB to the Lions, along with draft picks. It makes sense to pick a franchise QB when you have the chance, but from what I’ve seen of Stafford he is a far from being a sure thing. Georgia had a lot of weapons and to me Stafford did not stand out as a leader or an accurate passer. Next year’s QB class is much better and while the Lions can’t go into a season hoping for a poor record, the reality is that they will probably be picking in the top six again next year and have a shot at Bradford, McCoy or perhaps Tebow. I think this is a good selection by Steelerark but I would pick Curry in the first round, the best available defensive player with the 20th selection (perhaps CB Vontae Davis or DL Jeria Perry), a top center like Mack or Wood with the first pick of the second round and forget about QB entirely until the second day … and with the first pick of the third round select Pat White, who I think has just as good a chance of being a franchise QB as Stafford.

by steeler.lifer on Mar 19, 2009 10:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

agree 110% about stafford

Not at all impressed by his demeanor out there and I saw him a decent amount. I suppose he could get in a good situation and immediately adopt a great work ethic. I’m not sold though. I guess I’m always skeptical though of QBs. I was that way with Cutler and Ryan and both have been fine so far. Though it’s worth mentioning that two years in a row now Cutler has failed to win in December. 3-6 last two years. Anyway.

by Blitzburgh on Mar 19, 2009 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

interesting point about cutler

very romo-esque of him….

by acrollet on Mar 21, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i really wanted

to pick Curry. I just don’t think that they will after trading for Peterson. Some of the Detroit sites i visited, many of the fans still want Curry. They want to move him inside, something that Curry himself wants to do. I think he’s the best available in the draft.

by steelerark on Mar 20, 2009 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Defense makes more sense for Detroit

That was a good trade for Detroit getting Peterson but adding Curry to Peterson and Ernie Sims would give them a good (maybe great) linebacking corps to build a defense around. They could also go Raji first overall and add the best OT or MLB Laurinaitis at No. 20 and a CB with the first pick of the second round. But a first-day draft that would include Curry, Jerry and a CB with the first pick of the second round, along with Peterson’s arrival, would give Detroit a chance to be much better defensively even before they make a pick on the second day of the draft. And it would be smart to draft White on Day 2. The kid is a player and would bring a lot of excitement to a team that desperately needs it

by steeler.lifer on Mar 20, 2009 2:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs