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More Likely To Remain With Steelers - Lawrence Timmons or Santonio Holmes?

With little to no Steelers related football news trickling in these days, I look forward to our community mock draft progressing on. You can find the #1 overall pick, which was made last night, here. Here goes a random and speculative debate that won't be settled for a number of years now: which former 1st round draft pick is more likely to re-sign with the Steelers and play at least the bulk of his career in Pittsburgh, Lawrence Timmons or Santonio Holmes. (hat tip to ROTB for idea).

Let's make the case for each after the jump:

Star-divide


Santonio Holmes

#10 / Wide Receiver / Pittsburgh Steelers

5-11

189

Mar 03, 1984

Ohio State


 

Free Agent: 2011

Holmes, who was drafted with the 25th overall pick of the 2006 NFL Draft, has already cemented his status in Pittsburgh Steelers folklore for generations to come, regardless of whether he has any more productive years before becoming a Free Agent after the 2010 season. I suppose we might have a better idea of whether the Steelers front office will have to prioritize the WR position in future years based on several things. Firstly and most obviously by what we do in this year's draft. Secondly, if Limas Sweed fails to develop significantly in year two of his career, the organization might have to go out of their way more than they typically do to lock down Holmes next offseason. The team does after all have a tendency to re-up their players the offseason before the final year of their contract. So 2009 in many ways should be an audition of sorts for Holmes and his future in Pittsburgh. Will he keep his nose clean and continue the upward trajectory that he's been on since the middle of this past season? Or will he and others on the team suffer from the frequent Super Bowl hangover that afflicts so many teams and their players the year after winning it all?

********************

 


Lawrence Timmons

#94 / Linebacker / Pittsburgh Steelers

6-1

234

May 14, 1986

Florida State


 

Free Agent: 2012

First of all, isn't it beautiful to be reminded that Lawrence Timmons is still not yet 23 years of age. He's got two years of football experience under his belt now and is still at least two or three years away from truly hitting his stride physically and mentally out there. Timmons, who was taken 15th overall in the 2007 draft, has been a special teams demon in years one and two of his brief career, and in 2008 also contributed significantly in Dick LeBeau's defense. He had five sacks including a crucial take down of Joe Flacco to put the Ravens out of FG range when the Steelers and Ravens met for the second time in December.

It's still too early to truly know what kind of player Timmons is going to be. My hunch is he's going to be as good as they come once he truly gets comfortable out there and is able to just play instinctively without overthinking things too much. That may not be for another year or two though, which would be pushing up against the end of his rookie contract after the 2011 season. Obviously Larry Foote and James Farrior will be out of the picture by the time Timmons were to be a free agent, so it's either going to be Timmons or a guy we've yet to become acquainted with who will be asked to roam the middle of our 3-4 next decade. The other fact worth mentioning is that Timmons is represented by Drew Rosenhaus. I think Rosenhaus gets a bit of an unfair rap and at the end of the day, it's still somewhat up to the player to decide where he wants to be, assuming he has options, which Timmons will.

So if you had to make an educated guess with lots of pertinent information in the future still to be determined, who would you pick as the most likely to re-sign with the Steelers beyond the end of their rookie contracts: Santonio Holmes or Lawrence Timmons?

 

Poll
Is Santonio Holmes or Lawrence Timmons more likely to play past his rookie contract?
Santonio Holmes
378 votes
Lawrence Timmons
662 votes
Both
1229 votes
Neither
62 votes

2331 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 33 comments  |  Add comment |

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Alex Mack ONLY 20 reps at 225 lbs. at Pro Day

Guys, check out Alex Mack’s workout numbers at his Pro Day on March 19 via Gil Brandt from NFL.com:

He measured in at 6-foot-4 1/4, 307 pounds. He had a sensational workout in the position drills and ran a 5.17 and 5.23 in the 40, posted a 28 1/2-inch vertical jump, an 8-foot, 10-inch broad jump, a 4.75 short shuttle, a 7.31 three-cone drill and did 20 bench press reps.

Brethren, do you want your center of the decade to be someone who can bench press 225 lbs. 20 times while going up against Sean Rogers and Haoliti Gnata twice a year? I think this drops him from the first round.

By the way, Eric Woods of Louisville at 6’3 and 7/8 inches, 310 lbs, did 30 reps on the bench, 5.23 40-yard dash, 30.5 inch vertical with a 7.56 on the 3-cone drill.

And A.J. Shipley, 6’1’’, 304 lbs, did 33 reps on the bench, 5.23 40-yard dash, 31-inch vertical leap and 7.46 on the 3-cone drill.

And this is from C/G Doug Legursky (who the Steelers signed from their practice squad to the regular roster) from his Pro Day a year ago, 6’3’’, 312 lbs., 36 reps on the bench, 5.22 40-yard dash, 28-inch vertical, 7.71 on the 3-cone drill.

Who still wants Mack at pick no. 32?

by datruth4life on Mar 19, 2009 11:10 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Mack

Keep in mind that football strength is derived primarily from the hips and legs. Also, the 225 test is a test of local muscular endurance for most of these guys, not strength. They might as well make them do pushups.

I have seen FILM of Mack, and I would still take him at 32. It should probably tell you something about the validity of the 225 test when a guy who nearly doubled Mack’s output a year ago couldn’t even make our roster last year, as terrible as our OL was.

by JHolmes on Mar 19, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I do

J Holmes makes a good point, reps aren’t everything. Mack has tremendous upside as a leader and a player.

To the tune of the classic children's song "This Old Man" (the part with nick nack patty whack)

Big Snack, Silverback, take the Dawg Pound's Bone, the Black and Gold sent the Brownies crying home.

by HighSchoolSteeler on Mar 19, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Posted this on the other thread
In anchoring against those larger tackles, lower body strength and leverage is a lot more important than one’s ability to bench press. Mack, Unger, and Wood are all very good center prospects because of their athleticism, intelligence, lower body strength, and polish. Also, people who just looked at the drill numbers all complained about Unger’s combine, but the real scouts that were there came away impressed. Both Mack and Unger are still fine prospects – it’s all about the tape.

I pretty much agree with JH. BP reps mean something, but not very much. The combine has so many different ways to analyze speed and explosiveness, I don’t know why they don’t have a better measure of strength, especially lower body strength, where the real work happens. Looking at BP is like looking at an OL’s 40 time. Yeah, it’s better to be faster, but the 10 yard split, vertical, and broad jump are all better measures of how good a lineman is at doing lineman things (i.e. not running 40 yards down the field). Maybe Pola’s athletic trainer should make a better functional strength metric.

charity standing orders

by BadMaafala on Mar 19, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He actually had a great workout, and I quote:
Those assistants showed up to watch center Alex Mack (6-foot-4 1/4, 307 pounds). He had a sensational workout in the position drills and ran a 5.17 and 5.23 in the 40, posted a 28 1/2-inch vertical jump, an 8-foot, 10-inch broad jump, a 4.75 short shuttle, a 7.31 three-cone drill and did 20 bench press reps.

Source: http://blogs.nfl.com/2009/03/18/mack-in-focus-at-californias-pro-day/

To the tune of the classic children's song "This Old Man" (the part with nick nack patty whack)

Big Snack, Silverback, take the Dawg Pound's Bone, the Black and Gold sent the Brownies crying home.

by HighSchoolSteeler on Mar 19, 2009 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Big name wide receiver staying in Pittsburgh?! lol. Not gonna happen.

by PaulMorel on Mar 19, 2009 11:10 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think both stay ultimatly

Santonio and Ben are probably going to be what the offense is built around for the foreseeable future as long as Ton’ keeps his nose clean and his play continues to improve this season. As blitz said Limas Sweed, Martin Nance, and anyone we draft this offseason have a lot to do with our future as well. If a miracle happens and Sweed and Nance are impressive we might be have to re-evaluate and think about a letting Holmes walk if he is looking for HUGE Bucks…

I think the key with Timmons is his age, I think we will sign him to a 2nd contract before he REALLY becomes dominant.

I'll drink your Milkshake, I'll drink it up!

by drinkyourmilkshake on Mar 19, 2009 11:31 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

We'll keep 'em both

The Steelers don’t let #1 draft picks walk after their rookie contract. Look at Faneca, Hampton, Simmons, Ben, Polamalu, etc. I think both of them get good deals.

by JHolmes on Mar 19, 2009 11:48 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

yea agreed

Was going to follow up with a look at what we’ve done historically with our #1s. Plax of course didnt make it, but I believe a very high % otherwise have been retained.

by Blitzburgh on Mar 19, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dang

Don’t know how I forgot about Plax. But that was mainly because we were committed to Hines instead, wasn’t it? At this point, Hines is going to get a retirement deal so we can focus our $ on Tone.

by JHolmes on Mar 19, 2009 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

think that was part of it

I think Plax also wore out his welcome a bit. I dont think we’ll see that with Tone and LT, but I suppose theres a chance with ’Tone if he doesnt stay out of troubl.e

by Blitzburgh on Mar 19, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The problem is: we may already be committed to Harrison and Woodley in much the same way we were with Hines. We can only spend so many dollars on LBs and we’ve got 3 dudes with legit claim to that money.

I go 60/40 in favor of Holmes if only because Hines looks to be the only other player straining our receiver funds.

by Varmint on Mar 20, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Timmons for now

The Steelers go about building a great D first and then try to compliment it with an offense. Timmons, baring the unforeseen, is a lock. Holmes is still a maybe to me and it doesn’t depend on how he does this coming year either. It has to do with what we get out of Sweed or whoever else is in the mix. If a cheaper alternative shows up with little drop off they’ll let Holmes walk. But money aside, I think Holmes could be our Hines Ward of the future.

by 13thieves on Mar 19, 2009 12:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Both
The Steelers just don’t let impact players get away. Plax, sure, he left, but that was a HInes vs Plax decision, a no-brainer IMO.

by Cols714 on Mar 19, 2009 12:13 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Timmons, but could see both

I would say Timmons is the lock. He’s a top pick on defense who is likely to become as close to an every down defender as we usually have.

Holmes may very well become the next Hines for us, but I distinctly remember hearing in the 90s that the Steelers don’t pay premium money for players that are going to touch the ball, on average, less than 10 times a game. Now, it may very well be that we are moving away from being a run-first team, in which case Holmes becomes more valuable. I also think that he has already proven to be a more clutch performer than Plax was. Until his performance in the 2007 playoffs, I remember Plax most for being a great fantasy football player who disappeared in the playoffs.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Mar 19, 2009 2:27 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Timmons

and I don’t see ‘Tone resigning unless he really loves Pittsburgh. If he doesn’t fix some of his character flaws he’ll be gone in ’11, i.e. Plax.

To the tune of the classic children's song "This Old Man" (the part with nick nack patty whack)

Big Snack, Silverback, take the Dawg Pound's Bone, the Black and Gold sent the Brownies crying home.

by HighSchoolSteeler on Mar 19, 2009 3:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

what character flaws are those?

Smoking weed? I’m sure a healthy per centage of his teammates do as well. All I know about his character besides a charge that was dropped and smoking a joint is that he was one the hardest working guys on the team, impressing even the hardest worker, HInes.

I think calling Holmes a ‘character problem’ is kinda lazy.

by Blitzburgh on Mar 19, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

right on.

I never want to see something as ubiquitous as freaking cannabis be a “character issue” when well over 1/3 of the country smokes on regular basis.

by SteelersVT on Mar 19, 2009 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well not just the pot charges

Look back at his rookie year when he was arrested for allegedly hitting his girlfriend, charges dropped of course, and I think he had another incident that same year as well, but I may be wrong.

Without a doubt Holmes can play great football, I’m just not a big fan of his. The Steelers front office knows what they’re doing, so whatever they decide I trust will be the right decision.

Timmons on the other hand is a guy who values being humble while at the same time maintaining a competitive drive. That’s the other thing about Holmes; He’s full of himself. After this past post season he has every right to be but at the same time there’s a point where you have to draw the line. As pathetic as it would’ve been (meaning I don’t necessarily support this rule and think if a guy does an extravagant celebration let him do so), but if the refs had seen his touchdown celebration after that fabled catch in XLIII, we would’ve been penalized. Though I’m confident that the Cardinals wouldn’t have won, you can’t help but wonder what the reaction would’ve been towards Holmes if the results of the game were different.

In any case, people can say what they want to say, and Santonio Holmes deserves an unbelievable amount of credit for his post-season heroics, but I will always take a guy with a humble or down-to-earth attitude who comes to play the game and doesn’t get involved in off the field crap, over a guy who has a world of talent but gets into off the field troubles and has a high opinion of one their own playing ability.

To the tune of the classic children's song "This Old Man" (the part with nick nack patty whack)

Big Snack, Silverback, take the Dawg Pound's Bone, the Black and Gold sent the Brownies crying home.

by HighSchoolSteeler on Mar 19, 2009 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

For Example:

Hines Ward over TO any day.
Larry Fitzgerald over Plax any day.
Heath Miller over Vernon Davis any day.

To the tune of the classic children's song "This Old Man" (the part with nick nack patty whack)

Big Snack, Silverback, take the Dawg Pound's Bone, the Black and Gold sent the Brownies crying home.

by HighSchoolSteeler on Mar 19, 2009 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

just one thing my friend

The charges were dropped most likely for a reason. If he wasn’t convicted, you have to presume that he was innocent. That’s the country we live in. Period. Even if athletes SEEM to get a break or two in the justice system.

Anyway, nothing wrong with not liking every last guy on the team. But being ‘full of himself’ doesnt mean he has character issues or legal history.

by Blitzburgh on Mar 19, 2009 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not Period Blitz, That is not the country we live in!

Where there is smoke…..

Not saying that Tone hit that girl, but it would be nieve to to think that she couldn’t have been paid off to shut her mouth before causing problems for the future millionaire. Things like that don’t ever happen, right?

He has the baseline for the “Character Issues” label. As you said yourself in the post about keeping his nose clean, and again in the comments about if he could stay out of trouble.

In the court of public opinion, the jury is still out on this one

Though I must say that I love the guy, his work ethic, and what he can bring to this team for years to come. I too hope that he keeps his nose clean, but the charges that were dropped….. If he doesn’t stay out of trouble can and will be used as part of an argument as to why and what he may be labeled in the future.

"Damnit mom! You almost ran over Greg Lloyd!"

at an autograph signing back in 95. He walked out in front of our minivan, and my mom almost hit him. He apologized.

by PA ARMY OFFICER on Mar 20, 2009 8:27 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

it is the country we live in

He’s innocent, the court said so. If one thinks otherwise, than one doesnt really believe in our justice system. my two cents.

by Blitzburgh on Mar 21, 2009 8:09 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not so fast there

That is a fire and forget answer if I ever heard one.

In the sake of argument, in this case highschoolsteeler using Holmes’ unspecified past, as part of the reason as to his own opinions he can presume whatever he wants, just because the courts ended up one way does not mean that HS can’t come up with a different opinion.

Now let us talk justification, I gave a scenario in my comment that may not be too far-fetched. Money talks, hell, look at OJ. He was judged innocent in a criminal trail, but found guilty in the civil trial, he had run out of money for the best of the best for legal help by that time.

Again, I am not saying that I think that Tone hit that woman, but I am defending HS’ right to take that stance based on Tone’s cavalier attitude towards illegal substances laws, that he was in fact guilty of.

Any flaws that our court system may have has no bearing on the argument. And there are many things that I do find flawed with our justice system. It is better than most, but far from perfect.

The court of public opinion has different rules and that is the rule in which Tone is being judged, or has the potential to be judged, and that domestic abuse charge is considered viable evidence in the court of public opinion, though you may advocate for it not to be as is your right.

I personally don’t care to hold it against him at this time, but if he is in trouble again then yeah I just might.

I just hate being told or watching others being told how they must think, or what they must presume.

"Damnit mom! You almost ran over Greg Lloyd!"

at an autograph signing back in 95. He walked out in front of our minivan, and my mom almost hit him. He apologized.

by PA ARMY OFFICER on Mar 21, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

nah, im not telling him how to think

I do think its lazy to label him as a guy with character issues. Wont’ see me telling him to change his opinion. That’s why I choose in these instances to be brief because I’m not trying to persuade otherwise.

As for your points – they’re good ones. But you I never challenged, or at least wasn’t trying to challenge the court of public opinion. It’s just that – opinion.

I am saying that Santonio Holmes is innocent on charges of hitting a woman. A court decided that.

by Blitzburgh on Mar 21, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Both will stay.

I easily see both Timmons and Tone staying in the mix as Pittsburgh’s 13 core players. Foote and Farrior will be gone soon and we need Timmons to be there. As for Holmes, I don’t think that even a major leap in production from Sweed will be enough to run Holmes out of town cuz there is little/no depth behind him.

As for Burress, I remember the season before he left that he was cohorting with Ben and changing his routes on the field, despite the play that was being called by coaches. The coaches in the booth started recognizing it and the last thing they wanted was a bad influence disrupting the growth of their young franchise QB. Obviously, we didn’t need him and I’m glad to be rid of him.

by iancyoung1 on Mar 19, 2009 3:23 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Both stick around

Heres my thing, Santonio is good but I dont think he quite commands the league in such a way that others will be molesting him to give him money.

Timmy is gonna be locked up because we <3 defense.

by Mechem on Mar 19, 2009 7:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Ben and Holmes are already a fearsome unit

 Santonio has a knack for getting open after his route’s run out and Ben is playing keep away in the backfield.

If this kind of teamwork improves, and Holmes is still a go-getter type, I’d feel awful seeing him go.

by betelgeuse on Mar 19, 2009 8:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I voted both gone

First of all I’m not sure how an uncapped NFL would affect these guys. From what I’ve read they can’t become unrestricted free agents until they’ve played six years and if that’s the case, then it’s still too far into the future to predict. Injuries, off-field incidents, the emergence of other players … a lot of stuff can happen to change the status quo.

But assuming they both become UFA in their scheduled years I think it’s going to be very difficult for the Steelers to retain either one. Next off-season, Santonio won’t be the top priority of our second-contract guys we want to extend, it will be Woodley, whose four-year deal also expires after 2010. He is going to cost an arm and a leg and rightly so. I’m also expecting the Steelers to either work out a long-term deal for Harrison or keep him for 2010 by franchising him, either way costing big bucks a year from now. Obviously Santonio is also a high priority because of Hines’ age and the lack of proven WR depth on the roster, but there might be some financial limitations on what can be done. I can see us extending Woodley next year and Santonio playing out the final year of his contract and going into the UFA market. What are the chances of the Steelers outbidding what will be huge number of teams interested in him? Almost zilch. In the Steelers’ balanced offense he will never put up the kind of numbers that get him acknowledged as a top-flight WR and I think he has just enough of an ego to want to get that recognition.

Timmons is an incredible athlete who could be the star linebacker in many defenses, either 3-4 or 4-3. As long as Woodley and Harrison are around, he is No. 3 at best in Pittsburgh and the Steelers’ next contract offer to him will reflect that. They’re not going to offer him more than what they pay Woodley, for sure. So that means he plays out his final year without an extension and again goes into the FA market … with Rosenhaus pitching him as the best available FA linebacker in the game. And he might be right, in which case he is gone too.

I realize this is a pessimistic viewpoint but even keeping one of these guys is going to be very difficult. We have lost a lot of good players over the years that we couldn’t afford to keep and it’s not going to stop now.

by steeler.lifer on Mar 19, 2009 9:59 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

not sure i agree about woodley vs. timmons

Timmons is just about to blow up. Younger than Wood by quite a bit for same draft class. Came into the league more raw in terms of experience as well. Played just one year basically compared to Woods two – three.And I’m not sure that Wood will cost an arm and a leg to retain. I’ll dig up some contract numbers for comparisons sake.

I’m not convinced that Woodley is going to age that well.

by Blitzburgh on Mar 19, 2009 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

sorry, unconnected poor thoughts there

Out the door for now but I’ll try again soon enough. Maybe I was comprehensible enough just barely to get some initial response though.

by Blitzburgh on Mar 19, 2009 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What will it take to sign Woodley?

Timmons is about a year and a half younger than Woodley. Woodley was 23 when he started his first full year in 08; Timmons will be 23 when he likely starts for the first time in 09. I agree with you Blitz, Timmons is likely to blow up and become an impact player. His ceiling might be higher than Woodley’s based on athletic potential but Woodley’s ceiling looks pretty darn high already..

What will it take to re-sign Woodley? Hard to say. Here are Woodley’s second year stats: 15 GP, 60 tackles, 11.5 sacks, 1 interception. Here are Terrell Suggs’ second-year stats (2004): 16 GP, 60 tackles, 10.5 sacks, 0 intercepts. Suggs hasn’t matched that sack number in any year since. He made the Pro Bowl once in his first three years, twice more since. Suggs played five years on his first contract but the Ravens have never been able to sign him to a second contract, franchising him last year and again this year for about $8 million and $10 million. Would anyone here trade Woodley for Suggs, who is still only 26? I’m guessing not many though the two players are pretty similar in terms of productivity and position responsibilities.

Here are Demarcus Ware’s second-year stats (2006): 16 GP, 71 tackles, 11.5 sacks, 1 interception. He’s put up increasingly better numbers each of the past two years and is going into the final year of his contract. Is Woodley another Demarcus Ware? Probably not but you never know. If Woodley continues to improve (and he should after just one full season as a starter and still only 24 years old) and increases his sack numbers in 09, then that is the kind of company he will be measured against at the contract table.

Even if Woodley doesn’t approach Ware territory, impact linebackers cost a lot of money. The Dolphins re-signed four-year veteran Channing Crowder a few weeks ago for an estimated $20 million over three years. The Cardinals have been unable to re-sign Karlos Danby, franchising him the last two years just as the Ravens did with Suggs. The Packers extended starting linebacker Nick Barnett on his second contract a couple years ago for $35 million over six years. The Broncos extended second-contract DJ Williams last year for $32 million over five years. Barnett and Williams (and to a lesser extent Crowder) are good players who do a lot of things that Woodley isn’t asked to do at his position, but none of them get in the quarterback’s face like he does. It’s a special talent that will make him a lot of money.

by steeler.lifer on Mar 20, 2009 1:50 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs


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