Steelers lost three UFAs: Faneca, Haggans and Brian St. Pierre. They signed two UFAs: Moore and Fox. If we had lost only Faneca, and not signed any UFAs, then we would be getting a third-round compensatory pick and probably among the first few allocated for that round. However, the financial and performance disparity between the two UFAs we signed, and the two we lost, might result in us getting less than a third-rounder. Moore got about $2 million in the first year of a three-year contract, while Fox got about $650,000 in a one-year deal. Haggans and St. Pierre both signed one-year deals at around $1 million. We paid only $300,000 more for 2008 but also have Moore under contract for two more years. There was a much wider discrepancy in their performances. St. Pierre did not play a game (perhaps a crucial point) and Haggans played only 11 games before he was injured. Moore filled in as a starter and was generally outstanding as a back-up, third-down back, as was Fox as one of the leaders of special teams and getting some defensive snaps. Based on what we know of the compensatory rules, it seems likely we will get less than a third-rounder. But the NFL never publicly explains how their formula works and they may place more of an emphasis on the dollar difference than the performance difference. Faneca’s huge salary is well above the threshhold that would normally determine a third-rounder so … who knows. In terms of playing time, free agency was a sawoff. But we technically did lose an extra player and the financial difference between players gained and lost in 2008 was about $7.5 million dollars. On that basis alone we should get a third-rounder. However my opinion is that the pick will be lower, most likely a fourth-rounder. We will find out for sure in about three weeks.

Hartwig was released by the Panthers last year, making him a Free Agent but not an Unrestricted Free Agent by having played out his contract. Players who are released don’t count in this formula, at least to the best of my knowledge about it.

Obviously, Washington and McFadden. But what about Smith? Others?

Both will get signed by somebody as will Leftwich. DYM you could be right about Anthony Smith. I think we could still sign three modest UFAs: a WR, a CB and either OL or DL, but none to the kind of contracts that Washington and McFadden signed. That would add up to losing five UFAs, including two with relatively high salaries, and signing three to salaries similar to the two Smiths and Essex.

Six potential FA losses, not five: Washington, McFadden, An. Smith, Leftwich, M. Smith and Essex.

i found i site explaining this guy’s own formula projections on how the nfl does its compensatory draft picks (even tho its for 2006). apparently, 1) he’s normally pretty accurate 2) he has way too much time on his hands.
its nice tho cuz it explains the basic rules pretty well. its says the main determining value of FA additions/losses is avg. yearly value of the contract they signed w/ a LITTLE adjustment for playing time and awards.

qualifying FA’s [amt of games played is all according to nfl.com]:
losses=Haggans (1.35 mil/yr; played in 11 games),
              Faneca (8 mil/yr; started 16 games & sent to probowl),
(i dont think St. Pierre will count cuz he only signed a $620,000 contract & didnt play at all).
additions=Moore (1.65 mil/yr; played in 16 games & started 4),
 (i dont think Fox will count w/ only 640,000 mil/yr & 13 games played or Hartwig because he was cut from the Panthers. all of our other free agent signs were after the traditional FA period so they dont count either).

So we’ll probably get a 3rd rounder because we have a higher number & “better quality” qualifying FA’s leaving than signed. if (say for instance Fox counts) & we have the same the same number of qualifying FA’s leaving as signed, then we get a 7th rounder regardless of the quality difference. that would just suck.

this is just my guess, but when the steelers chose not to make a qualifying restricted FA offer to smith they missed their chance for any compensation. for instance, if a player is a true unrestricted FA & his old team doesnt make a “qualifying” offer by june 1 then they get no compensation even if he signs by the end of free agency.

Thanks for the information T1mmy and for clarifying the salaries of the players involved. Haggans making double what Fox made and therefore being a “better qualifying” FA, but contributing less on the field than Fox did, just goes to show how smart the Steelers are in free agency. I get the impression there is lots of room for the NFL management council to exercise subjective interpretation of their formula. The main reason that it is not an exact science is because the NFL allocates a fixed maximum total of 32 compensatory picks, so somehow all the individual team totals of compensatory picks earned must add up to no more than 32. If it’s a choice between giving the Steelers either a third-round pick or a seventh-round pick, then the fairest decision would be a third-rounder based on Faneca’s huge salary, being the only full-time starter of the FA group, and being voted to the Pro Bowl. As for Anthony Smith, as a RFA who wasn’t tendered the Steelers obviously forfeit their rights to fixed compensation. It’s just a question of whether, as a lost free agent, his loss might contribute to next year’s compensatory calculations. You could be right because he has technically never been classified as an Unrestricted Free Agent, just a non-tendered RFA.

sorry. just realized i forgot to include the link http://forum.ninercaphell.com/showthread.php?t=486

So i found i link about this guy on SI.com’s steelers page. This is the guy I was referencing earlier and I guess he’s kinda famous. Anyways, he came out w/ his predictions this year & projects us getting a 3rd rounder.

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?S=112&F=1786&T=4063902&P=1

Now there is a guy with time on his hands and a lot of good information. It looks like a great analysis. Based on his track record there’s no reason to think we won’t get a third-rounder and probably the second compensation pick awarded (No. 98 overall). McFadden and Washington could translate into comp picks in the 4th and 5th rounds, respectively. Thanks for the update T1mmy.