BTSC 2009 Community Mock Draft - Pick #11 by the Buffalo Bills: Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State
by Blitzburgh on Apr 1, 2009 1:04 PM EDT
30 comments
The BTSC Mock Draft moves on with the Buffalo Bills pick being submitted by the seemingly omnipresent steelguy99. Many thanks to him for the timely pick and for all his other hunting and gathering of news and information from around the world of football for us here at BTSC. The pick's somewhat of a controversial one, as the selection is a guy scouts seem to either love or hate as a 1st round talent. Let's go to the write-up and see what steelguy99 had to say about the pick. Next up? The Denver Broncos, with Air Holmes selecting for the suddenly tumultuous franchise.
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Last year the Bills offense was lackluster rating just 25th despite playing a schedule comprised of many soft defenses, though their QB missing a few games didn't help. They need more help on the offense than they do on the defensive side of the ball, despite acquiring Terrell Ownes recently. But where exactly they need the help is difficult to pinpoint. Going into FA, on the offensive side of the ball they had a QB that is competent, RBs that can run, Tackles that can block, and one WR that is dangerous. Their TEs delivered mediocrity in spades and helped take the same amount of pressure off of Lee Evans as much as the rest of the WRs on the roster: none at all. The Bills desperately need someone to take the heat off of their main man at WR, and having someone to further improve their run game would be a nice bonus. Since FA the Bills have picked up T.O. and someone they'll hope to fill the center of the line.
The Bills spent a 2nd round pick on WR James Hardy last year, but he did not deliver due to to an ACL injury. They will be hoping to get him back to play opposite Evans this year. Before they picked up T.O. I thought it would be unlikely that the Bills would pick up a WR unless a guy like Crabtree fell, but now I think that WR can be taken off the list. Pettigrew is a solid consideration here for his ability to be open on the underneath routes and at the same time can also help open up holes in the run game.
If the Bills were picking at #22 this would likely be my pick, but as they are at #11 I think it's a bit early and there is better value elsewhere. In the actual draft trading down may be a real possibility for the bills as I sincerely doubt any team would pick Pettigrew at 11, even a team that really needs his abilities. If the Bills do pick him up though their offense could improve greatly, assuming Lynch can actually play. The defense of the Bills was stronger than the offense, but nothing too amazing. They could use a guy at every level, most importantly up front. The bills were weak against the run and just about the worst in the NFL at generating pressure on the passer. Most believe a top-tier DE would help them the most, someone able to stop the run and get after the passer. A solid 1st round LB would also be a good option to help with both.
A few options this year for what the Bills need at DE. Primarily they will be looking for someone to rush the passer and ideally someone who can make tackles against the run. If a strong LB like Curry falls the Bills may take him as well. Someone on the defensive line who can come in and play immediately would be optimal, as the Bills won't be drafting for depth but for starters.
Basically my selection is BPA for a run stopper/pass rusher. I'm not a scout and my selection is solely based on perceived needs of the Bills and players that can improve this area of deficiency. Curry, Everette Brown and Orakpo all would have been good picks for the Bills if available, but since they are off the board I have the bills picking Aaron Maybin. Unfortunately he doesn't really help the Bills much with their run defense, but he fills the necessity to rush the passer very well. If Aaron Maybin is off the board I very much believe the Bills trade down, but in this mock he is still around.
Scouting reports:
http://www.draftcountdown.com/
http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_
http://www.mockingthedraft.
BTSC 2009 Community Mock Draft Team Selections
#1) Detroit Lions - Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
#2) St. Louis Rams - Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
#3) Kansas City Chiefs - Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest
#4) Seattle Seahawks - Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
#5) Cleveland Browns - Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB, Texas
#6) Cincinnati Bengals - Jeremy Maclin, WR/KR, Missouri
#7) Oakland Raiders - B.J. Rahi, DT, Boston College
#8) Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
#9) Everette Brown, DE, Florida State
#10) San Francisco 49ers - Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State
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Oh, I’d also like to thank the hospitable fellows over at buffalo rumblings. They were kind enough to answer some questions I had a few weeks ago when I was drumming up information regarding the bills.
Don't worry about the haters. Haters only hate.
by steelguy99 on Apr 1, 2009 3:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
wow, we are just as equally split.
16 votes either way at 3:21 4/1. I think he’s gonna be a decent player.
by SteelersVT on Apr 1, 2009 3:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I like Maybin
But he’s pretty much what they have already at the position. Aaron Schobel and Chris Kelsay are both quick step pass rushers who are a little undersized, and weak in run support. Kelsey missed time last year I believe, but both are good edge rushers. Maybin probably wouldn’t play LB in this system either.
This is a team unafraid to reach. A couple of years ago they took Donte Whitner in the top ten I believe, he was graded out late first- early second, if my memory serves me right. And with the possible departure of LT Jason Peters, I like a tackle here, or as you said Brandon Pettigrew is also a possibility.
by NYSteelersFan4 on Apr 1, 2009 3:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think you should skip drafting a player because you already have the same type of player in place. Kemo is a big run-blocking guard, but just because we have one doesn’t mean we can’t do better. If we replace a similar-style player along our whole offensive line with another that has actual talent it would be an immediate upgrade. The bills pass-rush is not getting the job done, they need better talent.
Good points about tackles. I’ve been out of the loop for a bit and the only catch up I did in the past few weeks was regarding free agent acquisitions w/ the bills. If Peters goes the bills could have a nice selection at tackle. It’d be too bad for the bills though because that is one of the positions they were actually really solid at, and we want the bills to be good so they can smack the patriots around for us.
Don't worry about the haters. Haters only hate.
by steelguy99 on Apr 1, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Touche...
“If we replace a similar-style player along our whole offensive line with another that has actual talent…”
Hard to argue with that.
by NYSteelersFan4 on Apr 2, 2009 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and we want the bills to be good so they can smack the patriots around for us.
you just won me over – GO STEELERS!!!
Anyway Kenny, Yellow MegaMan is only $8.95, so maybe your mom can put it on layaway and make payments for a year or two
by J2 on Apr 2, 2009 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
unless of course we meet you in the “PLAYOFFS!!!”
but if you know the Bills – I woudln’t expect that ;)
Anyway Kenny, Yellow MegaMan is only $8.95, so maybe your mom can put it on layaway and make payments for a year or two
by J2 on Apr 2, 2009 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Aaron Schobel and Chris Kelsay are both quick step pass rushers who are a little undersized, and weak in run support. Kelsey missed time last year I believe, but both are good edge rushers
thats a big old negative there NYsteelersfan4 – Kelsay sucks BAD. like really bad. like really really really bad – espcially for his contract.
i hope we cut the guy – but our wonderful “inner circle” aparently thinks he’s good. which doesn’t make sense to me because I watch the Bills every week and I see a guy that doesn’t make plays
Anyway Kenny, Yellow MegaMan is only $8.95, so maybe your mom can put it on layaway and make payments for a year or two
by J2 on Apr 2, 2009 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually...
That’s not entirely accurate. While undersized, the trio of Schobel, Kelsay, and Ryan Denney were actually relatively stout against the run. The problem is that Schobel is the only competent pass rusher and was hampered by injury last year. Kelsay, as many Buffalo fans will tell you, is incompetent and needs to go, but is viewed as a locker room leader and probably won’t.
The problem is that the top 3 pass rushers (Maybin, Brown, and Orakpo) are projected to 3-4 OLB, not 4-3 DE. So it might actually be prudent to pick up a starting caliber 4-3 OLB like Cushing or Matthews and wait on DE, even though WE NEED A DEFENSIVE END THAT CAN GET VAGUELY NEAR THE QUARTERBACK.
If we lose Peters, I’m thinking Oher or Andre Smith is likely. Positive noises have been made about Smith, even after his Combine meltdown, but it’s tough to know which way they really go. You might find us picking a tackle even if we get Peters’ deal done because we have a hole at guard and the rookie could start there and serve as an insurance policy for when Peters wants a bigger contract in 2 years.
by WhyBillsWhy on Apr 2, 2009 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm in upstate NY
So I know alot of Bills fans, and yeah, I guess I was thinking back to the three decent years he put up early on and not recognizing that the last two where he dissapeared for a while (at least in the sack department, his tackle numbers are up). You could definatley use someone that can get there more consistently, but I just don’t see it in Maybin. He’s more fit for a 3-4 OLB role, as you said. He compares in my eyes to Manny Lawson from San Fran. A real fast first step, with the agility to get around you, and a couple of very effective (at least in college) pass rush moves. There is no doubt that your DE’s could be better. An upgrade at DE is needed, but is Maybin that much of an upgrade when there are other positions of need. Using a top ten pick to upgrade a position of some NFL proven depth marginally is not using a pick wisely. I’ve said I like tackle here, or possibly TE.
by NYSteelersFan4 on Apr 2, 2009 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve said I like tackle here, or possibly TE.
or LB – probably not TE – if TE we probably trade down
Anyway Kenny, Yellow MegaMan is only $8.95, so maybe your mom can put it on layaway and make payments for a year or two
by J2 on Apr 2, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Buffalo's team defensive ranking
Not saying that these numbers prove anything but here they are:
Rushing Yards Allowed: 22nd of 32- 1946 yards
Rushing TD’s Allowed: Tied for 24th of 32- 18 TD’s (only 6 teams with more)
Sacks: 28th of 32- 24 sacks (only three teams with fewer) *Your best pass rusher missed 11 games. If you add in an average year by Schobel (8.5 sacks), you jump to 12th in the league.
Ryan Denney: Ranked 14th in the league amongst D-Linemen in tackles, pretty good.
Chris Kelsey: Ranked 41st in the league with 47.
by NYSteelersFan4 on Apr 2, 2009 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think this shows that with Shobel, you’re better than average at getting to the QB, even if just slightly. Although still below average in rushing defense. An OLB is a good fit for sure,why did you get rid of Crowell? I think that was his name. He was pretty good, was it the fact you brought in Kawika Mitchell?
by NYSteelersFan4 on Apr 2, 2009 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think this shows that with Shobel, you’re better than average at getting to the QB, even if just slightly.
Not even close!
With Schobel, our pass rush is still putrid. He’s the only guy that has shown any ability in the past to get after the QB, but I, for one, think his skills are quickly declining. And have for about 2 years now. Chris Kelsay and Ryan Denney do absolutely nothing for this team in passing situations. Our D had something like 8 sacks out of the DE position last year. That’s OK if you’re running a 3-4 where the OLB’s get all the sacks, but not with our D. And the issue goes beyond sacks. These guys, Schobel included, don’t even pressure the QB. That’s what we really need….a guy that can be a consistent threat off the edge, even if he only gets 8 or so sacks.
~K
"I’m Kurupt with Buffalo Rumblings. I am worth hundreds!"
by Kurupt on Apr 2, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree you need to upgrade at DE. My whole point was is Maybin enough of an upgrade to warrant a top ten pick. If you think so fine, I see where you’re coming from. And you most likely know more about your team than I do, all I’m saying is using that high of a pick to better a position only slightly isn’t worth the pick.
12th of 32 is better than average though. But thats semantics and inference. The bottom line is you need to get better, I just don’t think Maybin will make you that much better, in my opinion not enough to warrant that high of pick. Just my opinion, I’m not making that pick.
by NYSteelersFan4 on Apr 2, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shobel
He may be declining, if thats the case than maybe it is worth the pick. All I know is that in the two years before this past injured season he averaged over ten sacks per season.
by NYSteelersFan4 on Apr 2, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he averaged over ten sacks per season
a lot of those were junk sacks as well – we suck at DE
Anyway Kenny, Yellow MegaMan is only $8.95, so maybe your mom can put it on layaway and make payments for a year or two
by J2 on Apr 2, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt you called them junk sacks when he was getting them, but I wasn’t watching the games with you so…
They very well could have been.
by NYSteelersFan4 on Apr 2, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh they were – usually at the end of games when it didn’t matter.
that was his MO as far as I could tell – he rarely if ever made key plays at key times
Anyway Kenny, Yellow MegaMan is only $8.95, so maybe your mom can put it on layaway and make payments for a year or two
by J2 on Apr 2, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Everette Brown or Orakpo were available do you think they would warrant the pick? Or do you believe OT/TE would trump DE in this years class for the bills?
Don't worry about the haters. Haters only hate.
by steelguy99 on Apr 2, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
def DE/LB this year at 11 unless Peters is a goner – no way TE at 11 (unless we reach and that is not out of the question for our “inner circle”)
I’m still hoping we sign Peters – regardless of what is said out there – if the Bills are truley in “win now” mode then trading your franchise LT isn’t in the cards.
If Peters is traded then all bets are off as who knows what they’ll do.
Anyway Kenny, Yellow MegaMan is only $8.95, so maybe your mom can put it on layaway and make payments for a year or two
by J2 on Apr 2, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Peters
I think hes gone. He gave up more sacks than any other LT in football last year, and missed three games. The hold out really hurt his rep with the front office, and his lack of production killed his rep with the coaches, I would think. Trading your franchise left tackle isn’t what you’d want to do, but get what you can for him now, ad draft a highly rated T, with the hopes he can be the guy. This is a very good tackle draft, if there ever was a time to trade a LT with an expiring contract, now would be that time.
by NYSteelersFan4 on Apr 2, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
very good point – very deep class
Anyway Kenny, Yellow MegaMan is only $8.95, so maybe your mom can put it on layaway and make payments for a year or two
by J2 on Apr 2, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see the need for a DE
I’m not saying they don’t need one. But none of these three are exceptional DE prospects. They’re all good players, but you don’t hear alot about what they can do for a 4-3 team, mostly what they could bring from the OLB spot in a 3-4. That doesn’t mean they can’t be a 4-3 DE, there are plenty of guys with a matching skill set at DE in the league. But I think ALL of these guys are being graded a little high. The growing popularity of the 3-4 and the effectiveness of blitzing 3-4 OLB’s (cough, Harrison and Woodley cough) has made teams look at undersized college DE’s differently. Before they were labeled “tweeners” and would fall further in the draft, but now are regarded as “top prospects” who have never done anything at OLB. I think the three you spoke of are good pass rushers, but in alot of instances these guys match up against college LT’s who have no chance at blocking their pure speed. The best 3-4 OLB’s in the NFL (Harrison, Merriman, Ware) all have great bullrush to go along with the finesse moves that most of them got away with using in college when speed killed. You have to have more than a speed/ finesse style. This is where Cleveland got in trouble with Wimbley, San Fran struggled with Lawson (who is alot like Maybin) and last year with Vernon Gholston, who still has a world of upside (and youth to boot) to get better. I should do a post on this topic, it’s a hot debate. I don’t see enough of an upgrade to warrant the pick. Peters is as good as gone, his hold out last year pissed alot of people off, and his poor production last year sealed the deal (11.5 sacks in 13 starts). I think a tackle is where they look.
by NYSteelersFan4 on Apr 2, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Regardless, Schobel is a question mark, given the injury
Crowell was the SLB. Mitchell got brought in for WLB. There’s a big dramatic story to why Crowell is no longer with us, but the fact is he’s not, and we need to not have Keith Ellison starting at SLB this year. We need it bad.
by WhyBillsWhy on Apr 2, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
Injury always leaves a question mark about that players ability to be as effective as before. Interesting on the Crowell thing, I’d like to hear the story, but this isn’t the place.
by NYSteelersFan4 on Apr 2, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As much as I like to be the conversation starter
Or an annoying pain in the ass, depending on how you look at it, I really have to get back to work, I’ll check in later guys. Great debate, hope I didn’t ruffle too many feathers.
Let’s Go Buff-a-lo! (see mutual love)
by NYSteelersFan4 on Apr 2, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For sure a risky pick
That was a great analysis of the Bills, steelguy and I think you’re right, it would make sense for them to trade down in the draft. Maybe if Mark Sanchez is still on the board at this point a team like the Bucs or Jets would be willing to trade up to No. 11. Perhaps a team desperate for the last of the top four OTs would also try to move up.
Maybin is risky in almost every regard. He had one good college season and is undersized for his natural position, defensive end. Even in college he was pushed around by offensive linemen. He started out the year at Penn State weighing about 245 but by the end of the year, even with a break between the regular season and the Rose Bowl, he was closer to 230. He reported for his off-season training program in mid-January at 227 and it was only with the help of James Harrison’s fitness guru that he was able to report to the combine at 249 and to his pro day at 252. You have to wonder if he can carry the weight through the demands of a pro season. You also have to wonder if gaining 22 pounds of muscle in a month is strictly a product of hard work and a good diet. With the sudden mass muscle gain he actually tested poorly at the combine before turning in a stellar pro day workout. At 6-4 and as young as he is, it’s logical to think he can grow into an adequate size for a 4-3 NFL defensive end. It’s very hard to predict how he will play at that level. The Bills used a third-rounder last year on Virginia Tech DE Chris Ellis (6-4, 260) and he didn’t make any impact despite Aaron Schobel’s lengthy absence to injury.
It really is a difficult choice so kudos for going out on a limb for Maybin. Obviously there are some debatable alternatives. OLB Brian Cushing played a hybrid OLB-DE position at USC and might help some of the pass-rush problems as a situational guy in his rookie year or take over as the starter from Keith Ellison. Or they could change the look of the 4-3 a bit by picking big DE Tyson Jackson, who would definitely help against the ground game and create blitz lanes for the linebackers. He could also play DT and generate some inside pass pressure. As NYsteeler said, there is an option at OT with Oher. Tough choice all-round.
by steeler.lifer on Apr 1, 2009 10:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for your analysis steeler.lifer, always appreciated. I think the problem with creating blitz lanes for linebackers is that while the LB corps of the bills is okay, it doesn’t exactly tear the turf up. I think the Bills would want to pick someone who can contribute by themselves without relying on other players on the roster. Not sure if they will place an emphasis on run-stopping or pass-rushing if there are mostly single-dimension players out there.
Another reach name being tossed around is Clay Matthews. Or who knows, maybe they’ll get something to fill a need for their OT. All in all, if the draft falls to them this way they are in a tough spot if they have to draft at 11. Nearly every player they could draft to fill holes at OLB, G, DE, TE is going to be considered a decent reach.
Chances are though that because a lot of drafts have Orakpo and Brown going before #11, they won’t in the real draft and the bills can pick one of them up. Of course, chance are the bills do something completely unexpected anyhow.
Don't worry about the haters. Haters only hate.
by steelguy99 on Apr 2, 2009 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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