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Our drafts since 2002 - successes and failures

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Star-divide

 

Hey guys, I did a little research on NFL.com and found out some interesting stuff about our drafts during the last several years.  My analysis at the end may come off as being critical of Colbert, but I think Colbert is great.  We have won two Superbowls since he has been here and we are good year in and year out.  That being said, it is really interesting to look at who we have drafted lately and the success that they had.

 

For convenience I will break this up into guys drafted in rounds 1-2 and guys drafted in rounds 3-7.  I have omitted guys drafted in 2008 because I think it is too early to judge their performance.

 

Here are our 1st and 2nd rounders between 2002 and 2007:

2007

Rd            Sel #            Player            Position            School

1            15            Lawrence Timmons            LB            Florida State

2            46            LaMarr Woodley            LB            Michigan

 

2006

Rd            Sel #            Player            Position            School

1            25            Santonio Holmes            WR            Ohio State

 

2005

Rd            Sel #            Player            Position            School

1            30            Heath Miller            TE            Virginia

2            62            Bryant McFadden            DB            Florida State

 

2004

Rd            Sel #            Player            Position            School

1            11            Ben Roethlisberger            QB            Miami (Ohio)

2            38            Ricardo Colclough            CB            Tusculum

 

2003

Rd            Sel #            Player            Position            School

1            16            Troy Polamalu                        DB            USC

2            59            Alonzo Jackson            LB            Florida State

 

2002

Rd            Sel #            Player            Position            School

1            30            Kendall Simmons            G            Auburn

2            62            Antwaan Randle El            WR            Indiana

 

The first thing that one notices about the listed players above is that they are really good.  There are only two “busts” in this group: Alonzo Jackson and Ricardo Colclough.  Everyone else was a major contributor or starter on one or both of our Superbowl teams.  Based on the list above I believe Colbert has excellent judgment in drafting 1st and 2nd rounders.

 

Here are our 3rd round and after between 2002 and 2007:

 

2007 - 6

Rd            Sel #            Player            Position            School

3            77            Matt Spaeth            TE            Minnesota

4            112            Daniel Sepulveda            P            Baylor

4            132            Ryan McBean            DE            Oklahoma State

5            156            Cameron Stephenson            G            Rutgers

5            170            William Gay            CB            Louisville

7            227            Dallas Baker            WR            Florida

 

2006 - 8

Rd            Sel #            Player            Position            School

3            83            Anthony Smith            DB            Syracuse

3            95            Willie Reid            WR            Florida State

4            131            Willie Colon            T            Hofstra

4            133            Orien Harris            DT            Miami (Fla.)

5            164            Omar Jacobs            QB            Bowling Green State

5            167            Charles Davis            TE            Purdue

6            201            Marvin Philip            C            California

7            240            Cedric Humes            RB            Virginia Tech

2005 - 6

Rd            Sel #            Player            Position            School

3            93            Trai Essex            T            Northwestern

4            131            Fred Gibson            WR            Georgia

5            166            Rian Wallace            LB            Temple

6            204            Chris Kemoeatu            G            Utah

7            228            Shaun Nua            DE            Brigham Young

7            244            Noah Herron            RB            Northwestern

 

2004 - 6

Rd            Sel #            Player            Position            School

3            75            Max Starks            T            Florida

5            145            Nathaniel Adibi            DE            Virginia Tech

6            177            Bo Lacy            T            Arkansas

6            194            Matt Kranchick            TE            Penn State

6            197            Drew Caylor            C            Stanford

7            212            Eric Taylor            DT            Memphis

 

2003 - 3

Rd            Sel #            Player            Position            School

4            125            Ike Taylor            CB            Louisiana-Lafayette

5            163            Brian St. Pierre            QB            Boston College

7            242            J.T. Wall

 

2002 - 6

Rd            Sel #            Player            Position            School

3            94            Chris Hope            DB            Florida State

4            128            Larry Foote            ILB            Michigan

5            166            Verron Haynes            RB            Georgia

6            202            Lee Mays            WR            Texas-El Paso

7            212            LaVar Glover            CB            Cincinnati

7            242            Brett Keisel            DE            Brigham Young

 

 

Clearly, there are some contributors on here too, but I am amazed at the attrition rate.  There are 35 guys on this list.  Here are the ones who have received decent amounts of playing time for the Steelers:

 

Hope, Foote, Haynes, Keisel, Taylor, Starks, Kemo, Essex, Colon, Anthony Smith, Spaeth and Gay.  12 guys.

 

Of those 12 who have played I think the following guys have played well:

Hope, Foote, Haynes, Keisel, Taylor, Starks and Gay. 7 guys

 

The others have either struggled to find PT or been mediocre: Essex and Kemo

Or have flat-out stunk up the joint:  Colon, Smith and Spaeth.

 

Basically in those 35 picks we got 7 good football players.  From 2004-2007 we have got 2 good players out of 26 picks in the later rounds.  I haven’t compiled similar totals for other teams, but I can’t imagine that 2/26 is very good over a 4 year period. 

 

I will concede that both Anthony Smith and Willie Reid were talented football players, and I had no problem with either of those picks at the time.  I despised the Spaeth, Sepulveda and Dennis Dixon picks.

 

Given our recent (2004-present) failures in drafting talent in the later rounds I am very surprised that we traded down rather than up in this years draft.  Perhaps salary cap restraints deterred us from taking on the more expensive contracts that 1st and 2nd round picks usually command.  Perhaps this year we feel that there is a ton of talent available in round 3.  Still, given the excellent track record of our management in selecting quality players in rounds 1 and 2, I would have expected us to try to maximize the number of selections we have in those rounds, rather than minimize them.  I think Hood was a good pickup.  BPA and at a position of need, he also won’t just be given a starting job either; he will have to earn it over time.  IMO, that is good for a player’s development.

 

To wrap things up, I hope we have done a better job scouting late-round talent this year than in the recent past.  OK that’s enough rambling from me.  What do you think?

 

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good post

but why did u despise the dennis dixon pick. Somebody’s got to back up Ben Roethlisberger and Charlie Batch really isnt very good as a football player anymore. And he’ll be gone after this year, so it had to happen at some point. I loved the pick and still think it’ll pay off in some form or another down the road. Better than a huge longshot project at a position that likely will find that player cut withinn a few months or years.

by Blitzburgh on Apr 26, 2009 3:33 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

and don’t forget Tony Hills, either. ;-)

charity standing orders

by BadMaafala on Apr 26, 2009 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh I am not writing off any of the 08 picks as busts

Way too early to know anything there. Backup QBs are a valuable commodity. I didn’t like the pick because I thought our OL needs were so urgent that they should have been addressed. You can find backup QBs through free agency. Incidentally, that is why I also disliked the Sepulveda and Spaeth picks – because I thought we needed linemen and we can find a backup TE and a punter through some other channels besides the draft.

by houksyndrome on Apr 26, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Finding punters

Gotta disagree about finding punters through other channels – look what a mess it was this past year when Sepulveda went down. Berger and Ernster were horrendous. I think Sepulveda will make a huge difference in overall field position this coming year.

by yettibrad on Apr 28, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great Post

Too bad the formatting got a little screwy.

I’m not amazed by the attrition rate at all. In rounds 3-7 there you are consistently seeing 1-3 players that end up either as starters or solid contributors to the team.

Of the picks you despise, Spaeth is the only non-plus. Sepulveda will be our robopunter for years. Dennis Dixon will prove to be one of the better backups in the league, and if Arians gets to work, a special offensive asset at times.

Yes, a lot of those guys aren’t great, or even really good, but many of them contribute and we just won a Superbowl. This team is greater than the sum of it’s parts.

I’d like to see how we actually stack up against the other teams over this period, as that would give a better indication of where we really stand, but I realize what kind of work that requires. And thanks for taking the time to compile this.

My favorite thing about this team is that we have quality people in all phases, scouting, coaching, players, front office. We can make mistakes and recover from them because we are getting bonuses out of every sector, instead of just one or two like a lot of teams.

Good stuff though, thanks for the analysis.

by BallsofSteel on Apr 26, 2009 3:58 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

One thing that became clear as I compiled the list

is that we had some great drafts from 2001 to 2003. Just look at the 2002 draft: the only guy in there that I had never heard of was Glover. All the rest of them either started or got on the field regularly as backups (Lee Mays even got some PT as I recall). Any draft where you get 5 guys that can start on a championship-calibre team that is damn good.

My complaints are more with our recent drafts, where those late-round haven’t been panning out. I think we dropped the ball somewhat in 2007 and 2008 by not drafting more offensive linemen. IMO, that has been a clear area of need for a few years now.

by houksyndrome on Apr 26, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

While I agree that this team has missed on it’s share of second day picks, I don’t think that this is out of the norm for the league. Drafting is a very inexact science.

Your breakdown doesn’t factor in the success of the undrafted free agents signed during those same years. If you were to include those players, You’re going to see that well more than half (up to 30) of the roster were selected after day one of the draft. Furthermore, a whopping 14 of the 25 starters, or nearly 60%, come from this pool of players.

Here is a breakdown for the upcoming season. I have 52 players listed whom I think have a good shot at making the final roster of 53 next season. I have yet to replace Foote since his status is still a bit up in the air.

First and Second Round picks through 2008 (9 players):

Starters (7): Hampton (2001-1st), Polamalu (2003-1st), Roethlisberger (2004-1st), Miller (2005-1st), Holmes (2006-1st), Timmons (2007-1st), Woodley (2007-2nd)

Backups (2): Mendenhall (2008-1st), Sweed (2008-2nd)

Third through seventh round picks (15 players):

Starters (9): Ward (1998-3rd), A. Smith (1999-4th), Keisel (2002-7th), Taylor (2003-4th), Starks (2004-3rd), Kemoeatu (2005-6th), Colon (2006-4th), Sepulveda (2007-4th), Gay (2007-5th)

Backups (6): Townsend (1998-4th), Essex (2005-3rd), Spaeth (2007-3rd), B. Davis (2008-3rd), Hills (2008-4th), Dixon (2008-5th)

Undrafted Free Agents (9 players)

Starters (5): Reed (2002), J .Harrison (2002), Parker (2004), Stapleton (2007), Retkofsky (or either of the other two long snappers – all are UFAs – 2007),

Backups (4): Hoke (2001), Frazier (2005), Capizzi (2007), Bailey (2008)

2009 Draft Picks (up to 7 players)

Hood, Urbik, Wallace, Lewis, Summers, Burnett, Shipley

Other teams free agents, trades, etc. (12 players)

Starters (3): Hartwig, Clark, Farrior

Backups (9): Batch, C. Davis, Moore, McHugh, Ratliff, Carter, Kirschke, Eason, Fox

I’m guessing 48-50 of these 52 players are on next years 53 man roster. 40 players were either selected by the Steelers or signed as Undrafted Free Agents. Of those 40, AT LEAST 20, or 80%, will be amongst the starting 25 players on the team (11 O, 11 D, 3 ST). I’d venture to guess that percentage would be amongst the highest in the league.

by King Coebra on Apr 29, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

normal

IMO that would be normal attrition. Look at just the third round picks. Half of them are playing but not any pro bowl amongt them.

You know it is a team sport 51 men, they won’t all be in canton.

by steelerstyle on Apr 26, 2009 4:59 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Since 2004 we have:

Starks, Essex, Willie Reid, Anthony Smith and Matt Spaeth. Of those Spaeth is a backup TE, and a poor one at that. Starks is a starter. That is about it, the rest of those guys don’t play very much if at all.

1 starter, 1 below average backup, 3 guys that hardly play. I think we could be doing a lot better in the 3rd round, personally.

by houksyndrome on Apr 26, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

A lot of hating on Spaeth

I like Spaeth as a backup TE. He’s a below average blocker but performed really well in the passing game while Heath was out. I’d say he’s average overall, which isn’t bad for a backup. He’s certainly better than Tuman ever was.

by CarlWeathersMustache on Apr 26, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He has good hands, IMO, he tends to catch the ball when it is thrown at him

I’ll give him that. I hated the pick because at the time it was clear that we drafted him to be a #2 TE -that is basically his upside. I think we shouldn’t be drafting guys with such little upside in the 3rd round. I feel like we could have got a roughly equivalent player through free agency for very little money and used that draft pick to get an OL or DL. Incidentally, that is also why I didn’t like the Sepulveda or Dennis Dixon picks either. Punters and backup QBs don’t need to be drafted, we should be taking higher upside guys in the draft.

by houksyndrome on Apr 26, 2009 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dont disagreeh

I don’t disagree with you I’m only saying that hindsigt is a little easier. I think our round three picks this year are solid. Wish all threewere oline but I understand where the FO is coming from.
What’s your opinion?

by steelerstyle on Apr 27, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Tuman

I’d say that Tuman is far better for the purposes we use Spaeth in. Primarily we use Spaeth as a blocker. Except when Heath was out, and Spaeth ran enough routes to get awkwardly open. Tuman was essentially a 3rd tackle out there, and did that well.

by Chicago Steeler on Apr 27, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i coulda sworn Ike was in the 3rd round of the 2003 draft

When we hit you, you don't get up. When you hit us, we get up laughing.

by air holmes on Apr 26, 2009 7:40 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Nope, we didn't have a 3rd round pick that year

I was excited about Ike from the time we drafted him. He had run 4.3 in the 40 and he had good size. His profile said that he was very raw since he only had been playing football for a couple of years at a really small school. The profile also said he was very physical and only allowed 1 or 2 completions in his final season. I was pumped when I read that stuff and Ike has turned into a good corner. If he had better hands he’d be one of the top CBs in the league.

by houksyndrome on Apr 26, 2009 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

one problem....

one problem with our late round picks staying on the team is that our depth is so good. The Redskins or other teams that have no depth have a much easier time getting guys to stick. A Ryan McBean or Cedric Humes might still be on a team like the Redskins. Also, other teams know how good our depth is and steal guys off our practice squad. We don’t really have much luck hiding them there.

by guapo on Apr 28, 2009 9:28 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Actually, the team did try

>given the excellent track record of our management in selecting quality players in rounds 1 and 2, I would have expected us to try to maximize the number of selections we have in those rounds, rather than minimize them

They did try. Reports said the team tried to trade up to get Levitre or Unger but could not find the right partner and deal, so they went the other direction. Good move. If Colbert didn’t like the players available at #64 and he is the guy with the amazing record of drafting early, you should believe his choice to move down was a good one.

by Alegre_ on Apr 28, 2009 1:08 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs


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