I love the Steelers but I am not a Steeler homer.

I do think that much of the Steelers success has been their recent consistent success of their 1rst round draft picks. Going back to 2000:

Plex
Hampton
Simmons
Pola
Ben
Miller
Holmes
Timmons
Mendenhall
Hood

Obviously, we don’t know as much about the recent picks, but before them that’s quite a streak. Two of them (Ben and Pola) may be HOFers one day. I don’t even fault them for Simmons, as his downfall was partially due to diabetes and injuries, which you really couldn’t predict.

The Steelers obviously have a formula for their 1rst round picks, and it clearly works. And we should thank the stars for Ben. Without him, the Steelers are probably an 8-8 team. (To be fair, almost any team with a franchise qb is in the same boat.)

My personal theory is that they spend a great deal of time identifying a few players that they really want and make sure that they get one of them. And if the player they really want won’t fall to them, they will go up to get him (Pola, Holmes).

But what aggravates me is that the Steelers do underperform or are merely adequate in the later rounds, as this post suggests. You would think that the team would identify why they perform as such and try to correct that.

My personal theory is that what works for them in round 1 is what works against them later on in the draft. Early on, you can focus on certain players because you have a good idea of who will be drafted in round 1, and who will likely be available when it is their turn to pick. The FO can go through the rigid exercise of multiple mocks, figuring out which 10 “1rst round type” players are likely available at their pick, and do their due diligence to narrow that list down to a couple of players that they really like.

But as the later rounds unfold, you have to be more flexible, because there are more surprises. Guys that may have been thought to go in round 3 fall to round 4-5 and vice versa. This FO probably targets players before the draft, and as the players they like are picked, they probably just take the next selection off their (relatively small) targetted list, whether that player is projuected to go in the 4th round or the 6th round. We can deduce this because so many of their recent later round picks were from those that they invited in for a visit. Even this year, Arians had a quote where he said that he wrote down 3 names (Urbik, Wallace and Summers) on a paper weeks ago and would be happy if he got those players.

But if they were a bit more flexible and instead learned to harvest the falling fruit (ie, draft players who have unexpectedly fallen in the draft) while understanding the concept of value clusters, than they probably would be more successful.

For example, in the most recent draft, they passed up an opportunity to draft Jarron Gilbert at 2.64 and instead traded back, taking Urbik, Wallace and Lewis. But what if they had instead taken Gilbert (falling fruit), and then taken TJ Lang at 3.96 (just as good a Urbik, value cluster) and then one of Johhny Knox or Mike Wallace (just as fast as Wallace, value cluster), Scott Mckillop or Jason Phillip (be flexible, if there is no cb they like at 4.132 as much as Keenan Lewis who let’s assume is now gone, address a different position; they have a need at ILB, Farrior’s not going to play forever) at the end of round 4.

Which group is the likely better haul :
- Hood, Urbik, Wallace, Lewis
or
- Hood, Gilbert, Lang, Mckillop

Now maybe they had their reasons for not taking Gilbert, or maybe they really didn’t like Knox or Wallace or Mckillop. I’m not professing to be a draft expert. But what’s important is not the specific names so much as the philosophy.

Hey Blitz, thanks for posting this as a separate piece. One quick editing note: the second paragraph should read that the Steelers had eight out of 16 draftees who contributed on the field in 08, not seven. By on the field, meaning playing somewhere in the NFL.

Steeler1275 I think your theory may have some merit because there is obviously something wrong with the Steelers’ assessment of mid-to late-round talent when so many of them don’t pan out. My own theory is that they eliminate so many prospective players as lacking “Steeler” qualities that they reduce the chances of getting “NFL” quality players, but get good production out of the ones they hit on because those players have the necessary Steeler intangibles. Perhaps it’s because they focus on those Steeler qualities that so many of the ones they hit on stay in Pittsburgh for a second contract. It would also explain why they hit home runs on so many UDFA. From the 10-12 they sign, if one of them turns out to be a roster contributor, a starter or even NFL defensive player of the year, it’s great. Nobody cares how many UDFA don’t make it. People do care when a drafted player is a bust because it’s a waste of a valuable commodity.

Do players don’t see the field because they aren’t good enough or because the player in front of them is good. I mean the steelers have a good core group of players, as schnifin pointed out very little roster turnover when compared to other teams, especially the browns and bengals. I’m pretty sure it a lot easier to make their squad than it is the steelers on the simple fact that the quality of player isn’t as good ahead of you there as it would be in pittsburgh. If you’re Dennis Dixon and you were on the bengals last year, you’d be playing whereas with the steelers you never see the field. Does that mean Dixon isn’t a good player? No it just means that Ben doesn’t know how to get off the field when he’s hurt lol (oh and he’s also one heck of a player). Plus we usually take a player and give him two years to see what he can do, first year he shouldn’t be on the field unless he’s exceptionally good or injuries happen. Its our phiolosophy. I think a better gauge would be to see how many of those players are no longer with the team or PS. That’ll tell you who really just was a bust. IMO :) But great job!!! I know this took a lot of work.

Was the Positions they Missed really hurt the depth of this team along both Lines.
The one draft of Omar Jacobs in round 5 hurt us along with charles Davis the TE from Purdue. Of course the Drafting of Harris and Mcbean for the DL hurt also leaving us with no quality young depth.

Steeler.lifer, one thing that I’d like to look at and continue to keep a track of is the second day picks under Cowher vs. the 2nd day picks under Tomlin.

 I think Tomlin seems to have more of a philosophy to keep draft picks around and develop them (whether on the practice squad or main roster) than Cowher. It seems that Cowher was more than willing to go and get a veteran guy and didn’t really care if the draft pick stuck or not. And once Cowher got his guy, whether through the draft of free agency, he kept him in the lineup, whether the guy was a liability or not.

Tomlin seems like he gravitates toward open competition a little more than Cowher, who often went with his gut on who should start and who should sit. Tomlin seems like he wants to let the competition play out on the field and sort itself out. I do think the head coach here plays an integral role in who is drafted and who isn’t. I think that’d be interesting to follow as the years go by for Tomlin.

Besides hitting on early picks, just like Steeler.lifer said, I think the hits that the Steelers have had in rookie free agents have probably reflected some of the attention away from why the Steelers have done so poorly on the 2nd day of the draft. I think our scouting department really shines in that area of finding talented players who slip through the draft process but have certain qualities that fit our system. Even K. Colbert has said those undrafted free agents that make it here are a sign that his staff needs to do a better job evaluating talent because those are players they probably should have drafted.

All in all though, the draft really is a crap shoot. It seems like if you have 3 or 4 players from any draft starting 3 years down the road and being productive, you’ve had a decent to good draft. If any of them become stars, then you’ve had a good to great draft. Hitting on players like Ben, Troy, Woodley, Hines and others are game and franchise changers.

I agree, Blitz, that so far we’ve seen Tomlin exercise his personnel decisions most emphatically with the specials. I suspect part of that is due to the fact that he inherited a team that was just a year removed from winning a Super Bowl and still had the core of that group intact. One thing he seems to have done especially well is to listen to the guys (namely LeBeau and Colbert) who were here before him and who knew the talent on the roster and understood who could execute our schemes best. It would have been tempting for him to come in and say, “This is my philosophy and now we’re gonna go get guys who can do what I want.” Instead he seems to have bought into what the Steelers had been doing and rather than overhaul it he’s made some deliberate adjustments where necessary (remember all the speculation about the immediate implementation of the Tampa-2 scheme? Rather than overhaul, he chose to tweak). This is certainly to his credit, as I’m sure it’s tempting for young guys new to a high profile job like HC of the Pittsburgh Steelers to want to come in and show they’re capable by putting their stamp all over things. Bravo to Coach Tomlin for the wisdom of his restraint.

That said, the core group that was here when he arrived in ‘07 is beginning to move along. We’ve seen what he can do as a manager, a motivator and a strategist. Now, with numerous job openings on the horizon, we’ll get to see what he can do as a talent evaluator. This, more than anything else, will most likely be the key to how long he remainsn our coach. Based on what we’ve seen so far, my suspicion is he’ll do just fine.

For anyone who has a membership to this site, can you give us the nuts and bolts of what Lolley is saying about our pending free agents? Just curious. Thanks.

Maybe a little more credit should be given to Colbert in the middle rounds. Could it be possible that a big part of the reason for his apparent ineptitude in the middle rounds is due to his general overall success? The Steelers are a pretty deep, well-stocked team at most positions. Given there are some holes, the offensive line, maybe safeity, a couple others, but on the Steelers’ roster there aren’t as many spots to be had as other teams might have. One of the reasons being that Colbert and the Steelers’ front offfice has done a nice job of cultivating and retaining their own players. Not signing a lot of high priced short term free agents. And as you’ve pointed out, they’ve done so well in the early rounds and had so few busts that a lot of the lower drafted guys never get to suit up and get in the game to show what they’ve got. And hitting on several undrafted free agents has also left even fewer roster spots. Also, there are some players in that 3-5 round range yet to play more than a down or two, but who have shown potential. Like Bruce Davis. Who knows? Overall, I think Colbert has done a nice job maintaining year to year one of the top rosters in the league. Don’t just think purely about stats, think about the overall character of this team. What else can you ask for from your V.P. of Football Operations (GM)?

P.S. I know I’m kind of rambling here. It is very possible I made no sense at all.

The draft is just part of the picture of team building. The big picture is quite good and the draft has played a significant role. But, in a lot of cases, the Steelers’ mid-rounders who have not made the team haven’t succeeded elsewhere, either. Having four of 16 mid-round picks not play a down in the NFL, for anyone, is a high failure percentage. Other guys from that period, like Willie Reid and Rian Wallace, haven’t surfaced elsewhere either. No one is knocking on Brian St. Pierre’s door to compete for a backup spot. So I think you have to chalk those up to bad picks, not guys who were stymied by the talent in front of them.

But as you say the Steelers have done a fine job of cultivating and retaining players that are good fits for the team. The purpose of their draft is to find future Steelers, not just a guy capable of playing in the league. And when they find one good enough, they tend to keep them for a while. Some get away (McFadden, Chris Hope, Randle El, Leon Searcy) but the team is resourceful in finding replacements.

Brian St. Pierre: Six seasons, three teams, one game (Jan. 2, 2005 Steelers vs. Bills), one career pass (incomplete), four kneel-downs. Guess-timated total NFL income: $3 million. View from the sidelines: Priceless.

A few of Colbert’s late busts were D-line prospects take a look

Third rounds picks and lower since 2004

2004: Max Starks T, 3rd Nathaniel Adibi DE 5rd Bo Lacy T 6rd,
Matt Kranchick TE 6rd Drew Caylor C 6rd Eric Taylor DT 7rd
2 pick were used to address the D-line. Only Starks is still in the NFL
We also drafted Colclough in the 2rd. ending on a happy note this miserable draft
gave us Ben in 1rd.

2005: Trai Essex T 3rd Fred Gibson WR 4rd Rian Wallace LB 5rd
Chris Kemoeatu G 6rd Shaun Nua DE 7rd Noah Herron RB 7rd
In 05 Colbert picked D-line only once Essex is still with us backing up
many positions. No reason to mention Kemo

2006: Anthony Smith DB 3rd Willie Reid WR 3rd Willie Colon T
Orien Harris DT 4rd Omar Jacobs QB 5rd Charles Davis TE 5rd Marvin Philip C 6rd
Cedric Humes RB 7th
This was actually the first draft I ever watched. Not a good start. The one pick for the
d-line started the bust list for this draft.

2007: Matt Spaeth TE 3rd Daniel Sepulveda P 4rd Ryan McBean DE 4rd
Cameron Stephenson G 4rd William Gay CB 5rd Dallas Baker WR 7rd
Colbert again tried to address d-line in later rounds and failed but he did pick
Gay. McBean is currently with the Broncos

These 4 years gave us 26 players 14 of which are still playing 6 with other teams
An interesting note: 2006 was Cowhers last draft
Cowhers average amount of players from his last 4 is 2.25 ( not counting St. Pierre and Anthony Smith)

Taken from NFL.com

Good research. Five DL picks in that time in rounds 4-7, five guys who contributed nothing to the Steelers. Harris might be a late-bloomer as a 4-3 DT. He played a fair amount last year with the Bengals (his fourth team) and the Rams thought enough of him to trade RB Brian Leonard for him a little while ago. Obviously it’s not easy to find guys who fit the Steelers DL needs and maybe that’s one of the reasons they decided to pick an elite, athletic DL in the first round this year. However, it would be interesting to review John Mitchell’s comments after those other drafts. He and the other coaches saw something in those draftees and what they found out didn’t match their expectations.

Someone should really evaluate how the Steelers do with UNDRAFTED FREE AGENTS… THAT is where I think the Steelers really excel. The last I looked, they had something like 12-14 Undrafted free agants on the team,including 5 regular starters (Including Willie Parker and Harrison), 4 special team starters, and 3-5 guys that are #2 on the depth chart (and depending if you want to count 2nd team special teams). THAT’s outstanding in my opinion, and I wonder how THAT statistic ranks with other teams.

I’m new to the site, but I’ve been reading the blogs for the past couple of months and thoroughly enjoyed it especially for the insights into training camps and such during the offseason.

As far as the draft philosophy, I just feel that it’s been a steeler mindset for eternity to always go for homeruns in the mid (and even in the later rounds). Guys who either don’t have the college pedigree or didn’t have the college production that some other players had, but they figure that they have “it” to play in the NFL for a long time. If you find enough of those players throughout the drafts over the years (and can supplement it with undrafted free agents), then your failure rate will be balanced b/c it doesn’t really matter if you find a bunch of average talent in the mid rounds to play for a couple years to buffer your roster when you can hopefully replace them with a top-end day 1 draft talent. What they are really looking for is top-end talent that is falling to the later rounds that will hopefully work out well in the long run. Since they are not looking for “contributors” in the middle rounds, but instead are more focused for diamonds in the rough then they expect a high failure rate in these rounds, but what does shake out is those who do stick for a long while. They’ve done a pretty good job of this, but yeah, it does cause concern when they don’t get players that pan out for a long stretch of years when the ones they do find start to get up there in age. Also, the CB position has frustrated me for years (even though Ike has done a great job), but it always seems that miss out on a top end CB in the first round (like Revis, Hall, either Cromartie the past few of years…they just get drafted b4 the steeelers pick).