Pythagorean Wins: Looking Forward and Back in the AFC North

Last year, I posted a story explaining Pythagorean expectation, and what it predicted for the AFC North. Basically, you take the number of points a team scores and allows, plug it into a formula, and calculate the "ideal" number of games they should have won that season. It can also be used to predict, with fair accuracy, how a team will do the next season.

Two of the four predictions were spot-on, as the Steelers were forecasted to improve, and the Browns to decline, as they respectively under and overperformed their Pyth. expectation. The Bengals were also forecasted to improve - as we know, that didn't work out.

I'm going to take a look at the numbers again, for a few select teams, and see what we're looking at this season.

(As always, take this with a grain of salt - it's not perfect, and it can't predict injuries and performances from new personnel.)

We'll start with the Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers, who had a point differential of +124 points, which equates to 11.84 Pyth. wins. Sound familiar? When a team closely matches their ideal wins, their following season projection is hard to gauge. With a more favorable schedule, I'm willing to bet on 11-13 wins in 2009.

(Yes, feel free to dig this story up and mock me in nine months.)

How about the team that we completed a trifecta of futility by losing to the Steelers not once, but twice, but thrice last season, a distinction previously held only by the esteemed Cleveland Browns - the Baltimore Ravens? They actually had a better projection, with a point differential of  +141. That predicts 12 Pyth. wins, which they fell short of by one game. Sigh - an underperformance of one full game or more usually predicts a better team the next season. Let's hope for a Flacco sophomore slump, or for that aging defense to finally f***ing age. I'll match them with the Steelers at 11-13 wins, hopefully none against us.

And those aforementioned Cleveland Browns? The preseason AFC North favorites were badly outscored, at -118 points. This factors to 4.5 Pyth. wins, as compared to an actual total of four. Things aren't looking too hot on the Cuyahoga. But don't worry, they have a secret weapon that's sure to turn things around: The Mangenius! And, uh, Brady Quinn, who has a completion percentage roughly equivalent to the staph infection rate in the Browns locker room. And that other guy, the one who couldn't beat Charlie Frye for a starting job. Yeah, they're finally turning things around in Cleveland. 5-7 wins.

And we come to the only member of the division to never win a league title of any kind. The Cincinnati Bengals. Getting sleepy...Let's make this quick before I fall asleep on my keyboard. They were outscored by a whopping -160 points, or 10 per game. According to the formula, they had 3 Pyth. wins. They won four games, and tied in another. This sad sack team actually significantly over-performed last season. I'll spot them a better defense and a competent QB, and predict that they'll beat last year's totals easily, despite the formula. 6-8 wins, and high hopes for another 8-8 season for the most average franchise ever.  

Coming soon, more AFC notables, and discover why Tony Romo and the Cowboys will go playoff winless for yet another season.