Santonio Holmes - 2009 BTSC Community Projections

by Blitzburgh on Jul 28, 2009 6:16 PM EDT Comment 38 comments

About this time every year, we take a crack at projecting out what we think some of our favorite Pittsburgh Steelers players will accomplish statistically in the upcoming season. Unlike the PECOTA system used by stat geeks to project how the Major League Baseball season will play out, I am just essentially pulling numbers out of the air. There is no math involved in my analysis or anything really scientific to how I see his season playing out. Feel free to do the same about in the comments section.

Here were my projections for Holmes last year:

2008 Projections:

66 receptions, 1040 yards, 15.75 YPC, 8 TDs

2008 Actual Numbers:

55 receptions, 821 yards, 14.9 YPC, 5 TDs

Things To Consider Before Projecting Holmes' 2009 season:

Expectations: Many folks, myself included to a certain extent, thought Holmes would have a breakout season of sorts last year, his third year in the NFL. If you look at my projections again though, I didn't exactly think Holmes would put up the kind of numbers that compare to those of the game's top statistical accumulators at the wide receiver position. Holmes struggled for much of the 2008 regular season before turning it up in the playoffs. His incredible performance in Super Bowl XLIII earned him MVP honors and had fans clamoring to see what he might have in store for an encore during his fourth professional season in 2009. Will Holmes be demanding the ball like we saw him do on the sidelines during the Super Bowl? Will he stay patient if the Steelers offense undergoes similar struggles in 2009? What if the running game is even more prominently featured this year now that Rashard Mendenhall is healthy?
Can He Stay On The Field?: Last year was the first season that Holmes did not miss a game during the regular season due to injury. So don't think I'm calling Holmes injury prone necessarily, even though last year was the first he was able to stay healthy throughout the entire year. Holmes did however miss the Steelers home matchup against the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants after being suspended one game by the organization for getting slapped with a misdemeanor marijuana possession charge. Live and learn, but it's worth noting that another run in with the law could bring about a more lengthy suspension from either the Steelers or even the NFL league office.
Big Ben's Play: Wide receivers need good quarterback play to put up big numbers. Will Ben Roethlisberger A) get the pass protection necessary to throw the ball more consistently than he did a year ago; B) shake off whatever mental turmoil this latest off field development has brought him to lead the Steelers offense?; C) stay healthy and keep the inexperienced Dennis Dixon and the aging and largely ineffective (at this point in his career) Charlie Batchoff the field? I sure hope so on all accounts.
Replacing Nate: I think Limas Sweed and/or Mike Wallace can fill the void left by Nate Washington just fine, but it's worth remembering just how much Washington forced defenses to remain honest with his ability to stretch the field vertically. Furthermore, Washington was more than just a decoy if you consider just how much Big Ben liked to look his way. Decoys only work if you semi-occasionally throw them the ball. Will Ben feel comfortable enough with Wallace or forget about Sweed's struggles last year and look their way enough to get Holmes and Hines Ward open at other times?

With all that said, here's my projections for Santonio Holmes in 2009...

72 receptions, 1,115 yards, 15.48 YPC, 8 TDs

Thoughts?

Poll

Will Santonio Holmes increase both his receptions (55) and touchdown (5) totals from a year ago?

Yes on both accounts

676 votes

No, both totals will be lower or around the same

51 votes

Receptions yes, touchdowns no.

30 votes

Touchdowns yes, receptions no

44 votes

801 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

63 receptions, 1001 yards, 15.9 YPC, 7 TD

by Jett on Jul 28, 2009 6:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

between 65-70 catches around 1000 may not get there around 14.5-15.5 yards per catch 8 touchdowns

by WVPiratesfan on Jul 28, 2009 6:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I have no doubt that BR will give the other receivers a chance. The big X-factor for Holmes’ numbers will be the production of Hines Ward. He’s at an age where receivers start to slow down, and he had a lot of injury issues in the playoffs. If Ward’s production drops, it would make sense that Holmes’ would rise. Also, removing him from punt returns might up his numbers a little by keeping him fresh throughout the game.

by bone1978 on Jul 28, 2009 9:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Slow down?

He was never particularly fast to begin with. He runs precise routes, is VERY physical and totally in sync with Ben. I agree that there is a high probability that Santonio will shift more towards a #1 receiver role, but, I believe that Hines will continue to play at a high level for another 2 years at least, 3 if we/he are lucky.

There is no spoon

by chewiesteeler on Jul 29, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

totally in sync with Ben

I think the several interceptions last year are testament that it is not the case.

The only managing Ben does is that he manages to win games. - chewiesteeler

by steelguy99 on Jul 29, 2009 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

aberration?

I think the high interception total had more to do with the hosed up shoulder BUT, we’ll have to see what this year produces. In years past, totally in sync certainly applied.

There is no spoon

by chewiesteeler on Jul 29, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There were several interceptions that were clearly route running errors where Ben and Santonio were not on the same page. They usually chatted afterward about it, and one of them would admit via facial expressions who was wrong. They’d also make little hand signals about the routes and where each thought Holmes was supposed to go.

Sorry, but you are most certainly wrong on this point.

The only managing Ben does is that he manages to win games. - chewiesteeler

by steelguy99 on Jul 29, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not talking about Tone though

I’m talking about Ben and Hines

There is no spoon

by chewiesteeler on Jul 29, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

my post wasn't real clear on that

There is no spoon

by chewiesteeler on Jul 29, 2009 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ah, I see.

Ben and Hines are definitely on the same page.

The only managing Ben does is that he manages to win games. - chewiesteeler

by steelguy99 on Jul 29, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Ward's production drops...

…then other teams are going to feel more free to double-team Holmes.

by zacharai on Jul 29, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Holmes if im not mistaken also garnered a bit more attention from defenses last season, and Hines also had one of his best seasons of late with us.

I think this year it is truly Holmes’s time. Im thinking about 69 recs, 1100 yards, 9-10 tds

Bleeding Black and Gold.....forever

by Steeler_ on Jul 28, 2009 10:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

30-45 receptions 650yards. No TDs.

by Bonek on Jul 28, 2009 11:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

?

You can’t be serious….can you?

I think alot of those big 3rd down catches from Hines will become big 3rd down catches from Santonio this year. Not saying Hines is done, by any means….but his best days are truly behind him now, and you can bet he sees that Santonio is more than capable of taking alot more of the offense on his shoulders now. I don’t think Hines will mind this a bit, as he has been the main man for so long and definetly isn’t the diva type. He will gladly (and productively) slide into the #2 reciever role soon. It will begin a little this year, but I expect huge numbers from Santonio NEXT year.

For Santonio in 2009, I’ll say 71 receptions for 1,091 yards and 11 touchdowns.

I agree with bone1978, not having to return punts will keep him fresher throughout the season.

by SteelerStuckintheSouth on Jul 28, 2009 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe a case of “Under-Promise, Over Deliver”?

Bleeding Black and Gold.....forever

by Steeler_ on Jul 29, 2009 6:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes indeed :-)

by Bonek on Jul 30, 2009 6:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

washington

interesting point Tomlin made was that Holmes could play nate’s “go deep” role if, say, Shaun McDonald wins the #3 wideout job. So it could go either way — either santonio gets much less room because no one is stretching the field, or he gets a few more big plays thrown his way in addition to using his natural ability to make plays out of nothing.

by syrsteelerfan on Jul 28, 2009 11:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Tone

70 catches, 1113 yds, 9 TDs

Schedule could be a factor…Steelers should have some good leads in half the contests. Number of targets in those contests where the Steelers half sizeable (+12) could be cut in half. AFC Championship/Super Bowl – 11 catches, 201 yds, 2 TDs is a nice indicator that Ben is starting to trust/rely on Santonio a little more. No he isn’t Larry Fitz or Andre Johnson or Randy Ratio or Calvin Johnson (these guys are freaks), With more targets he could be Steve Smith or Greg Jennings.

by blackngoldZ on Jul 28, 2009 11:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Holmes' numbers

I expect Ben to improve this year, which would help Holmes’ numbers.

I looked at the percentages of Ben’s completions, yards and touchdowns the Holmes has had over the past few years, giving more weight to the last two years. I expect Roethlisberger’s numbers to be better than last year, but not as good as 2007, but I weighted his numbers towards 2007 slightly, because I believe that Ben will face an easier slate of defenses this year compared to last, hence the weighting.

My prediction for Ben’s numbers in 2009:

273/436 26 TD’s 3518 yards 8.0 yards/att

Hence, Holmes’ numbers would be:

55 Rec 8 TD’s 985 yards 17.9 yds/rec

I know the yds/rec seem high for Homles, but I am guessing with Washington gone, he will be used as more of a deep threat than last year. For reference, Holmes averaged 18.1 yds/rec in 2007.

by Ben Stuplisberger on Jul 29, 2009 1:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Add on to last post

Also, I don’t see Holmes getting 72 receptions because:

Over the past two years Holmes has caught 20% of Roethlisberger’s completions. With similar attempts for Roethlisberger over the past two years, Holmes would have to receive 26% of Ben’s completions to reach 72 receptions, which seems like too big of a jump. If Holmes stayed at 20% reception rate, Ben would have to make 554 attempts for Holmes to reach 72 completions, which I don’t see happening, since it would far exceed Ben’s high attempts of 469 in 2006 and 2008. That would be 5 more attempts/game for Roethlisberger! The Steelers would have to be behind in almost every game for Ben to make that many attempts. Considering the Steelers schedule in 2009, I don’t see that happening. I expect that the Steelers in 2009 will be leading games even more often than they did in 2008, which means Ben will make fewer attempts in the second halves of games than he did in recent years.

by Ben Stuplisberger on Jul 29, 2009 2:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

75 catches, 900 yds, 6 TDs

by steelersfan86 on Jul 29, 2009 6:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I definitely expect Holmes to have his biggest year this year

But to think he is going to get much over 1,000 yards and upwards of 8 and 9 TDs is a little bit preposterous to me. I think we are going to rely less on the throw this year as our rush attack will be much improved with healthy backs this year.

I will say 65-70 recs, 1,000 yards, 6TDs.

by Johnny_S on Jul 29, 2009 9:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If you include his playoff performance Holmes posted:

68 rec, 1,047 yds, 7 TDs.

Nice guess :)

The only managing Ben does is that he manages to win games. - chewiesteeler

by steelguy99 on Jul 29, 2009 10:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Batch

I have been reading this blog for a long time now. I’ve thought about signing up, but never have until today. Love this blog. Anyway, the reason I signed up today was because I just have to say that I really like Batch. I feel like people are kinda down on him, but he has been fantastic as our backup the last several years and personally, I have never worried when he has had to step onto the field. I agree that he is getting older (hard to argue about someone’s age), but he is still a great backup. I have always said that he’s one of the biggest unsung heroes in our SB run of 05. When Ben was out during the regular season, he won the games he played for us and we just barely made it in that year. Not to diminish others’ roles that year, but Batch has more than pulled his weight and I was actually fine with Leftwich leaving and us keeping Batch. Sorry for the rant, but I feel better now. Keep up the great work on the blog!

by stocktonryan on Jul 29, 2009 11:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Batch

You beat me to this:

Will somebody please provide me with some evidence that Charlie Batch has become “largely ineffective.” I have heard this repeatedly in the off-season but I have not read one shred of supporting evidence, statistically or otherwise. The fact that he did not play last year aside, I seem to remember Batch coming in for Ben, even starting a game or two, and holding down the fort rather well.

This theory, along with heaping high praise on Leftwich, has me a bit confused. You would think Leftwich started, played and won several games last year. NO, if memory serves, he played a total of just over 4 quarters last year and both times, took over for Ben when the Steelers already had a lead. Granted, the half-time lead over the Redskins was not very sizeable, but, our D was stifling the Redskins and their Offense did nothing in the second half anyway. So, Leftwich comes into 2 games (the other game being week 17 against the ever-so-dangerous Cleveland Browns), plays well, 2 games with the advantage of the other team not game planning for his insertion, plays well, and the conclusion is, he is a fabulous QB and should be starting somewhere? Come on now. I never wanted the guy and would have been petrified if he had to start for any length of time. I’m betting that he doesn’t win the starting job in Tampa and, if he does, since teams will be game planning for him each week, he won’t last long.

There is no spoon

by chewiesteeler on Jul 29, 2009 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought I was the only one!

I’ve argued this point on many different occasions when people say “Clearly Dixon should be the number 2 because Batch is old and not good.” Since when the heck did we start trashing Pittsburgh locals who have contributed a great role in our development? I’d bet some good dollars that Batch’s veteran wisdom has been HUGE in the development of Ben at practice and during games.

Also, I do not think Dixon should just get the number 2 job because he is younger, he should have to earn it over Batch.

And, I won’t thrash Byron. He definitely helped us last year in the Skins win. Yeah the defense played a part, but so did Byron.

by Johnny_S on Jul 29, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can see both sides

I agree with the 3 of you that I still feel comfortable with Batch as the backup. I think he can come in and start a couple games here and there and still win for us. However, I do think that we should have Dixon as our number 2 in games that Ben starts. Dixon needs to start seeing some action, and Batch probably only has a year left. If Ben has to miss a start, I would say you start Batch, unless Dixon just beats him out. Anyway, just my 2 cents.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Jul 29, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Projecting High

I think Holmes will establish himself as an elite receiver this year. Not a super-elite guy like Larry Fitz or Steve Smith, but solidly on the next level.

So I took an average of the 6th to 15th most productive receivers in the league this year. The group includes guys like Greg Jennings, Brandon Marshall, Reggie Wayne, and Hines Ward.

84 catches, 1141 yards, 7 TDs.

You may think that’s too high, but if you believe the torch has been passed from Ward to Holmes – and I do – those numbers are awfully similar to what Hines put up last year.

by Steelers in XLIV on Jul 29, 2009 11:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Too high

Only because I don’t see the Steelers ever passing for at or above the league average number of attempts unless we’re playing from behind ALOT. See my analysis about Hines’s numbers if he had played on a team that passed more. Only 3 of the 11 years in his career have the Steelers had above the league average in attempts, and the record for two of those years was 6-10 and 8-8.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Jul 29, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My thoughts on Holmes this year

Well, last year, I guessed too high:

70 rec, 1220 yds, 17.4 ypc, 10 TDs

Partly, I was thinking that because of the difficulty of our schedule, we would be playing from behind in few games, possibly inflating his numbers some. This year, I see the opposite being possible, because we have one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. However, I also think we’ll be facing fewer really tough defenses, so Ben’s completion percentage will be back around 63-64%. If that’s the case, and Ben has around 430 attempts, he’ll have around 273 completions. With Washington gone, I do think that Holmes percent contribution will increase to around 25%, giving him around 68 rec. So, I’ll say

68 rec, 1050 yds, 15.4 yds/rec, 9 TDs

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Jul 29, 2009 4:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs