The Steelers win when Parker runs the ball well - the numbers

Yes, that’s a simple statement. But using the yards per carry (ypc) statistic, the numbers bear it out. I like ypc because it shows, on average, what the runner contributes each time he carries the ball, not just some generic total for the whole game. 120 yards on 35 carries looks more impressive, and more misleading, than 3.4 ypc. Ypc isn’t a complete stat, but it is more informative than simply looking at yards.

The ypc stat shows that success is iffy with Parker as the main guy these days. In a nutshell, the Steelers are 22-6 (75%) when Parker averages at least 4.0 ypc, and only 16-14 (53%) when he doesn’t. From nearly always winning to a crap shoot.

Parker became the feature back at the start of the 2005 season. He put up big seasons from 2005 through 2007, but has dropped off significantly since then.

2005 - 2007

2005 – 1,202, 4.7 ypc (8th in NFL)

2006 – 1,494, 4.4 ypc (12th in NFL)

2007 – 1,316, 4.1 ypc (25thT in NFL)

During this time, the Steelers went 18-6 (75%) when he hit that 4.0 ypc mark. They were 10-11 (48%) when he came in under 4.0 ypc. That’s a major difference.

SINCE THEN

2008 – 791, 3.8 ypc (40thT in NFL)

2009 – 66, 2.4 ypc (47th in NFL)

I know, he was injured a big chunk of 2008 and we’re only two games into 2009, but it shows he struggled when the Steelers relied on him last year and so far this year. In 2005 and 2006 he was about a top ten back in the NFL, but has been dropping since then and cannot be considered an elite runner.

From 2005 – 2007, Parker averaged 4.0 ypc or better 24 times. He averaged less than that 21 times. For a top back, barely hitting the 4.0 ypc mark half the time is not impressive. However, it’s gotten much worse.

In his 13 games since the start of 2008, he’s hit the 4.0 ypc mark 4 times. The Steelers are 4-0 in those games. He’s failed to get at least 4.0 ypc 9 times, with the Steelers going 6-3.

THE POST SEASON

2005 – 1 game 4.0 ypc or better, 3 games less than that.

2008 – 1 game 4.0 ypc or better, 2 games less than that.

So, he’s gotten 4.0 ypc or more in 2 out of 7 post season games. Fortunately, the Steelers are 7-0 in those games, with two Super Bowls, but except for San Diego last year and the 75 yard scamper against Seattle, Parker has not helped the team win those games. In fact, he’s even been under 3.0 ypc in 4 of the 7 games.

LONG RUNS

Even this pre-season, pundits were still trotting out the ‘He can go all the way on every carry’ tripe. Runs of 20 yards or more:

2005 – 11 (1 per 23 carries)

2006 – 15 (1 per 22 carries)

2007 – 12 (1 per 27 carries)

2008 –   4 (1 per 53 carries)

2009 – None so far

I don’t know what a good average would be, but for 2005 – 2007, based on his carries per game, it was reasonable to expect Willie to rip off a long run a little less than once a game. That absolutely vanished last year.

ONE RELATED THOUGHT – THE ARIANS FACTOR

I’ve been rough on Parker (because I’ve always believed he doesn’t move the chains, which the ypc argument helps support), but I believe that Bruce Arians has been part of the problem.

At the start of 2007, Bruce Arians replaced TREMENDOUS blocker Dan Kreider with Carey Davis. Davis was a better receiver and runner (though Arians didn’t use him for a lot of either), but he was nowhere near as good a blocker as Kreider.

In 2008, Davis was replaced in the backfield with converted tight end Sean McHugh (I still don’t get that).

So far in 2009, Arians has either gone with no blocking back or Frank Summers (a runner in college who, as Mike Logan has repeatedly pointed out on AM 1250, has been a terrible blocker).

Arians gave a recent interview essentially saying he doesn’t have a use for the fullback and won’t be using one in Pittsburgh. So, beginning in 2007, he has systematically taken away a key blocker from Parker, which I believe, has contributed to his decline.

IS IT TIME TO MAKE A CHANGE?

Parker has averaged about 1.4 catches per game as the feature back, so he’s not an aid in the passing game. Based solely on games I’ve watched/listened to and press stories, I don’t think Parker is a very good blocker, so he doesn’t seem to help the team much there.

Parker is an aging back, with recent injury problems, putting up declining numbers, with few long runs, doesn’t play a part in the passing game, and isn’t really much of a blocker. Mewelde Moore has averaged 4.1 ypc in his two years with the Steelers and he’s certainly played a part in the passing game since joining the team. I also think Moore has been a pretty good blocker when he’s stayed in the backfield on passing downs.

It would appear that Mendenhall is the future of the running game if he’s good enough to carry the load. With Parker struggling more and more, as shown by the numbers, I think it’s time for Moore and Mendenhall to hold down the backfield. The Steelers win when Parker gets 4.0 ypc, but he doesn’t do that very often anymore.